Velo3D (VELO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $324.21M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 704.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -5.16
• Revenue Growth: 59.44%
• EPS Growth: 93.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 105
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): -0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 24,617,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,511,419
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 704,333
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -328.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.24
• 1Y Price Target: $18.00
• Price Target Upside: 36.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(25.28% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline, negative margins, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals are mixed but somewhat improved versus longer-term averages, while corporate events provide a moderate offset via new financing and a sizable defense-related contract. Valuation remains challenging to interpret due to losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Defense contract strengthens demand

The DIU Project FORGE award ties Velo3D directly into critical U.S. defense manufacturing programs, supporting prototyping and qualification of additively manufactured components. That creates multi‑year program work, strengthens backlog visibility, and bolsters long‑term industrial demand.

Rapid Production Services traction

RPS backlog growth and AS9100D certification indicate stronger commercial adoption of its production services. Certification and bookings aid qualification for aerospace/defense supply chains, supporting recurring revenue, higher utilization of installed capacity, and durable after‑sales streams.

Improved capital runway

The $30M PIPE provides near‑term capital for capex and scaling Rapid Production Services, reducing immediate liquidity pressure. Registration rights and lockups signal investor support, helping fund equipment, certification, and program qualification without immediate operational disruptions.

Negative Factors

Severe profitability and cash flow weakness

Sharp revenue decline with negative gross profit and persistent negative operating/free cash flow undermines sustainable operations. Poor margin economics limit reinvestment, slow path to break‑even, and increase reliance on external funding, raising long‑term execution and survival risk.

Elevated leverage and balance sheet strain

Material debt relative to equity and declining shareholders' equity reduce financial flexibility. Leverage increases interest and covenant risk, constrains ability to invest in capacity or qualify programs, and raises the chance of further asset monetization or dilutive financing under stress.

Program timing and revenue visibility risk

Lowered guidance citing project and approval delays highlights dependency on multi‑step qualification and external government timelines. Such lumpy, timing‑sensitive program revenue makes medium‑term forecasts uncertain and can delay scale benefits from awarded contracts.

Velo3D Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Velo3D, Inc. produces and sells metal additive three dimensional printers in the Americas, Europe, and internationally. The company's printers enable the production of components for space rockets, jet engines, fuel delivery systems, and other metal parts, which it sells or leases to customers for use in their businesses. It also offers Flow, a proprietary software platform, which scans part designs for geometrical features; and Sapphire, Sapphire 1MZ, Sapphire XC, and Sapphire XC 1MZ printers. In addition, the company provides Assure, a quality control software platform that includes process metrologies; Flow Developer, a new version of print preparation software that turns traditional design files into print files; and Intelligent Fusion, an underlying manufacturing process that unifies and manages the information flow, sensor data, and the advanced printing technology for precision control of the entire print. Further, it offers Rapid Production Solutions to build resilient supply chains for production parts in different industries; and provides support services. The company serves small- and medium-sized enterprises to Fortune 500 companies in the space, aviation, defense, automotive, energy, and industrial markets. Velo3D, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Fremont, California. Velo3D, Inc operates as a subsidiary of Arrayed Additive inc.

How the Company Makes Money

Velo3D generates revenue primarily through the sale of its 3D printing systems, including the Sapphire printer, as well as through the sales of materials, software licenses, and support services. Key revenue streams include direct sales of printers to manufacturers, ongoing contracts for software updates and maintenance, and the sale of specialized metal powders used in the printing process. The company also engages in partnerships with aerospace and industrial firms, which can lead to collaborative projects that enhance its offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings.

Velo3D Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals: revenue declined sharply (-47%), gross margin is negative, and net/EBIT/EBITDA margins are deeply negative. Liquidity is strained with negative operating and free cash flow, and leverage/equity deterioration adds balance-sheet risk.

Income Statement

Velo3D's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company has experienced a drastic decline in revenue, with a negative growth rate of -47% in the most recent year. Gross profit margin is negative, indicating that the cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The net profit margin is also negative, reflecting substantial net losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies and high operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a concerning debt-to-equity ratio, with total debt nearly half of stockholders' equity, indicating potential leverage risks. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed by equity. However, the declining stockholders' equity over the years raises concerns about financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates severe cash flow challenges. Operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow has been consistently negative, though there is a slight improvement in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, suggesting that the company struggles to convert income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, further emphasizing liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	49.16M	41.00M	77.44M	78.71M	27.44M	18.98M
Gross Profit	-902.00K	-2.08M	-26.27M	843.00K	4.96M	6.37M
EBITDA	-69.92M	-52.44M	-116.11M	13.63M	10.27M	-19.97M
Net Income	-72.94M	-73.30M	-135.14M	7.97M	10.20M	-8.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	93.90M	89.18M	153.80M	223.06M	302.72M	32.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.84M	1.21M	31.11M	80.20M	1.19K	15.52M
Total Debt	32.54M	15.92M	45.57M	22.85M	19.51M	8.73M
Total Liabilities	63.74M	49.52M	85.46M	84.27M	14.95K	16.81M
Stockholders Equity	30.16M	39.66M	68.34M	138.79M	110.42M	15.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-23.89M	-32.69M	-108.85M	-143.38M	-74.50M	-29.88M
Operating Cash Flow	-21.80M	-32.68M	-105.64M	-123.96M	-56.40M	-26.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-989.00K	7.77M	38.89M	-53.02M	-33.59M	-3.43M
Financing Cash Flow	32.83M	1.46M	59.26M	1.34M	282.89M	35.58M

Velo3D Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 13.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VELO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.46, above the 50-day MA of 12.28, and above the 200-day MA of 7.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VELO.

Velo3D Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IDN	62 Neutral	$114.76M	573.74	1.17%	―	14.20%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
DUOT	55 Neutral	$191.90M	-9.90	-38.62%	―	159.00%	33.19%
QUIK	50 Neutral	$125.78M	-12.81	-39.72%	―	-28.05%	-488.63%
VELO	47 Neutral	$324.21M	-0.81	-228.03%	―	59.44%	93.09%
WBX	43 Neutral	$42.44M	-0.29	-184.98%	―	-11.22%	6.15%

Velo3D Corporate Events

Velo3D Secures $30 Million PIPE Financing Commitment

On December 22, 2025, Velo3D announced that it had entered into a securities purchase agreement with two institutional investors for a $30 million private investment in public equity (PIPE), and on December 23, 2025, it closed a private placement of approximately 3.6 million common shares at $8.25 per share. The financing, led by a $20 million commitment from a new institutional investor alongside a large existing shareholder, provides Velo3D with fresh capital for general corporate purposes and capital expenditures to meet growing demand, particularly for its Rapid Production Services serving the space and defense sectors, and includes resale registration rights for investors, a 90-day lock-up on new share issuances and variable rate transactions, and lock-up agreements for directors and executives, underscoring both investor confidence and a near-term focus on capital structure stability. Lake Street Capital Markets and Lucid Capital Markets acted as placement agents and received customary fees for arranging the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (VELO) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Velo3D stock, see the VELO Stock Forecast page.

Velo3D Wins $32.6 Million DIU Project FORGE Contract

On December 22, 2025, Velo3D announced it had secured a $32.6 million Other Transaction Agreement contract with the U.S. Department of War’s Defense Innovation Unit to support Project FORGE, an initiative aimed at resolving major manufacturing bottlenecks in the U.S. defense industrial base for a critical munitions program. Under the contract, Velo3D will work with DIU, the U.S. Navy and a prime contractor to prototype and qualify additively manufactured components using its Rapid Production Solution, and the agreement also includes an option to explore development of the largest laser powder bed fusion printing capability in the U.S., reinforcing the company’s positioning as a key domestic supplier of advanced defense manufacturing capacity. Separately, Velo3D revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $45 million to $55 million due to delays from an extended fourth-quarter government shutdown that constrained normal operations and project approvals, although the company reported it maintained operations and client relationships during the disruption, which it believes leaves it well placed for a rebound as activity normalizes in fiscal 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VELO) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Velo3D stock, see the VELO Stock Forecast page.

Velo3D Announces CFO Resignation and New Appointment

On December 8, 2025, Velo3D, Inc. entered into a Sale Leaseback Agreement with Varilease Finance, Inc., selling its metal 3D printers and equipment for $10 million and leasing them back under a 36-month agreement. This strategic move allows Velo3D to maintain operational use of its equipment while optimizing financial resources. Additionally, on December 9, 2025, Hull Xu announced his resignation as CFO, effective December 31, 2025, with Bernard Chung appointed as Acting CFO. This leadership transition is aimed at ensuring continuity in financial operations, with Chung bringing extensive experience within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (VELO) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Velo3D stock, see the VELO Stock Forecast page.

Velo3D Reports Q3 Results and Nasdaq Uplisting

On November 10, 2025, Velo3D announced its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a revenue of $13.6 million and a backlog of $21.1 million as of September 30, 2025. The company completed its uplisting to Nasdaq and a public offering, raising approximately $17.5 million. Velo3D’s Rapid Production Services (RPS) showed strong momentum, with a 22% increase in backlog quarter to quarter and significant bookings from the space and defense sectors. The company also signed agreements to support U.S. Navy and Army initiatives, achieved AS9100D certification, and expanded partnerships to scale production. Velo3D reaffirmed its revenue expectations for 2025 and aims to be EBITDA positive in the first half of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VELO) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Velo3D stock, see the VELO Stock Forecast page.