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United States Cellular (USM) AI Stock Analysis

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USM

United States Cellular

(NYSE:USM)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(10.00%Upside)
United States Cellular's stock score reflects a balanced view of its current position. The most significant positive factors are the corporate events, particularly the sale to T-Mobile, which enhances financial flexibility and strategic positioning. Technical analysis also indicates bullish momentum. However, financial performance and valuation concerns, including negative profitability and lack of dividends, weigh down the score.
Positive Factors
Asset Divestitures
SOTP implies more headroom to equity value unlock from asset divestitures.
Capital Returns
USM remains a top Mid-Cap pick due to additional opportunities for value unlock and substantial capital returns to shareholders.
Negative Factors
Towers Strategy
Lingering questions regarding Towers strategy long-term.

United States Cellular (USM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

United States Cellular Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUnited States Cellular Corporation provides wireless telecommunications services in the United States. The company offers wireless services, including voice, messaging, and data services. It also provides devices, such as smartphones and other handsets, tablets, wearables, mobile hotspots, routers, and internet of things devices. In addition, the company offers various accessories, such as cases, screen protectors, chargers, and memory cards; and consumer electronics, including audio, home automation, and networking products; as well as offers option to purchase devices and accessories under installment contracts. Further, the company offers roaming, wireless eligible telecommunications carrier, and wireless tower rental services. It serves consumer, business, and government customers with 5.0 million connections, including 4.4 million postpaid, 0.5 million prepaid, and 0.1 million reseller and other connections in 21 states. The company provides its products and services through retail sales, direct sales, third-party national retailers, and independent agents, as well as e-commerce and telesales. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. United States Cellular Corporation is a subsidiary of Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyU.S. Cellular primarily generates revenue through the sale of wireless services and equipment. The company's key revenue streams include monthly service fees from postpaid and prepaid customers, sales of smartphones and other wireless devices, and roaming charges. U.S. Cellular also earns money through additional services such as device protection plans, data overage fees, and international calling plans. Strategic partnerships with other telecommunications companies, infrastructure sharing, and wholesale arrangements further contribute to the company's earnings. Additionally, U.S. Cellular invests in expanding its network capabilities and infrastructure to enhance service quality and attract more customers, which in turn boosts revenue.

United States Cellular Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.64%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with significant progress on strategic transactions and fiber expansion, yet faced challenges with customer retention and competitive pressures. While there were noteworthy achievements in financial flexibility and free cash flow growth, the company also dealt with negative net additions and pricing pressures.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Progress on T-Mobile Transaction
The organization is making significant progress on various activities in preparation for a successful mid-2025 closing of the transaction with T-Mobile, which includes financial, separation, integration, and transition work.
Fiber Program Expansion
The fiber program expanded the footprint over 30% in the last three years, with future growth opportunities identified. TDS Telecom delivered 14,000 new fiber service addresses in the quarter and remains confident in achieving the 150,000 fiber addresses goal for the year.
Increase in Free Cash Flow
UScellular generated $79 million of free cash flow in Q1 2025, an $18 million increase over the same quarter last year, due to cost optimization and flat operating expenses.
Third-Party Tower Revenue Growth
An increase of 6% in third-party tower revenue was achieved due to new colocations and escalators on renewed leases.
Negative Updates
Negative Net Adds in Handset Customers
Despite improvements, UScellular experienced negative net adds and ongoing losses of handset customers, putting pressure on service revenues.
Spectrum Transaction Pricing Adjustment
UScellular does not expect to receive most of the $100 million contingent on certain performance metrics with T-Mobile, likely reducing the purchase price to much closer to $4.3 billion.
Lower Fiber Net Adds Due to Seasonality
Fiber net additions were lower than prior quarters due to timing of address delivery impacted by cold weather, leading to a slower ramp-up in new subscribers.
Challenge in Competitive Pricing Environment
The industry continues to be promotionally aggressive, with competitors offering device promotions and aggressive pricing, challenging UScellular's ability to sustain high promotional expenses.
Company Guidance
During the TDS and UScellular First Quarter 2025 Operating Results Conference Call, several key metrics and guidance points were discussed. The company anticipates a mid-2025 closing for its proposed transaction with T-Mobile, which is contingent upon regulatory approval. Financial flexibility has been ensured by extending bank maturities and amending revolvers in preparation for this transaction. The organization is also preparing for potential special dividends post-transaction, with TDS expected to use its share to repay approximately $1.2 billion in outstanding bank debt. UScellular reported $79 million in free cash flow for the first quarter of 2025, marking an $18 million year-over-year increase. The company expects capital expenditures to decline in 2025 as planned 5G coverage builds are mostly complete, though investments will continue in 5G mid-band deployment. Additionally, the Tower business saw a 6% increase in third-party tower revenue, and TDS Telecom continues to focus on its fiber program, aiming to deliver 150,000 new fiber addresses in 2025. The company has identified $100 million in annual cost savings expected by year-end 2028, which will help mitigate increased costs as they expand their fiber footprint.

United States Cellular Financial Statement Overview

Summary
United States Cellular is facing challenges with declining revenue and profitability, evidenced by negative EBIT and net income. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a solid operating cash flow, which provides some stability. The company's balance sheet reflects a leveraged position typical of the industry, but the consistent equity level offers reassurance. Improvements in revenue growth and efficient debt management are needed to enhance financial standing.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
United States Cellular's revenue has been on a declining trend, dropping from $4.17 billion in 2022 to $3.71 billion in the TTM period. The company reported negative EBIT and net income for the current period, indicating profitability challenges. The gross profit margin remains relatively stable, but the net profit margin is negative, reflecting losses.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicative of a leveraged position, but this is common in the telecommunications industry. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced approach between debt and equity financing. The company's stockholders' equity has remained stable over the periods observed.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
United States Cellular has maintained a strong operating cash flow relative to net income, showcasing good cash generation capability despite net losses. However, free cash flow has fluctuated due to varying capital expenditures, which impacts the company's investment capacity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.77B3.91B4.17B4.12B4.04B
Gross Profit2.86B2.18B2.20B2.21B2.24B
EBITDA512.00M1.06B1.03B1.13B1.15B
Net Income-39.00M54.00M30.00M155.00M229.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.45B10.75B11.12B10.34B9.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments144.00M150.00M273.00M156.00M1.27B
Total Debt3.82B4.03B4.18B3.75B3.48B
Total Liabilities5.84B6.10B6.54B5.77B5.25B
Stockholders Equity4.58B4.63B4.55B4.55B4.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow346.00M128.00M-355.00M-1.24B47.00M
Operating Cash Flow883.00M866.00M832.00M802.00M1.24B
Investing Cash Flow-556.00M-721.00M-1.18B-2.04B-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow-347.00M-274.00M456.00M142.00M926.00M

United States Cellular Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price72.73
Price Trends
50DMA
65.37
Positive
100DMA
65.43
Positive
200DMA
64.22
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.25
Negative
RSI
64.78
Neutral
STOCH
54.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.24, above the 50-day MA of 65.37, and above the 200-day MA of 64.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USM.

United States Cellular Risk Analysis

United States Cellular disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United States Cellular reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

United States Cellular Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$5.00B11.526.74%5.79%14.09%-11.43%
74
Outperform
$4.95B9.1128.10%7.46%-0.91%11.25%
69
Neutral
$6.25B-0.84%-4.11%-163.81%
69
Neutral
$8.51B9.4811.08%4.49%-4.13%4.96%
65
Neutral
$3.95B19.343.99%2.24%-12.77%40.80%
61
Neutral
$769.71M59.21-30.85%8.63%-5.43%-363.95%
61
Neutral
$41.44B-3.01-10.30%3.97%2.71%-44.19%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
USM
United States Cellular
72.73
21.81
42.83%
PHI
PLDT
23.36
-1.98
-7.81%
SKM
Sk Telecom
22.43
1.21
5.70%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
9.22
3.30
55.74%
TKC
Turkcell Iletisim
5.66
-1.56
-21.61%
CABO
Cable ONE
146.07
-242.36
-62.39%

United States Cellular Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Array Digital Infrastructure Sells Wireless Assets to T-Mobile
Positive
Aug 4, 2025

On August 1, 2025, Array Digital Infrastructure, formerly known as United States Cellular Corporation, completed the sale of its wireless operations and select spectrum assets to T-Mobile USA for approximately $4.3 billion. This transaction led to significant changes in Array’s financial structure, including the termination of its securitization and bank facilities, and resulted in a special cash dividend of $23.00 per share for its stockholders. Additionally, Array underwent a corporate restructuring, including changes in its board of directors and executive officers, and a name change to reflect its new focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (USM) stock is a Buy with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Cellular stock, see the USM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
United States Cellular Announces New Interim CEO
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

On July 24, 2025, United States Cellular Corporation announced the appointment of Douglas W. Chambers as interim President and CEO, effective upon the closing of a transaction with T-Mobile US, Inc. This transition follows the anticipated sale of its wireless operations and spectrum assets to T-Mobile, expected to result in a special cash dividend of $1.950 billion to $2.075 billion for shareholders. Additionally, UScellular plans to rebrand as Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc. post-closing, marking a significant shift in its business operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (USM) stock is a Buy with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Cellular stock, see the USM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingDividends
UScellular Amends Credit Agreement with New Term Loan
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

UScellular has amended and restated its credit agreement, originally established on July 30, 2021, to a new agreement on June 25, 2025. This Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement maintains the existing $500 million loan facilities and introduces a new $800 million Term Loan A-3 Facility, contingent upon the completion of a Securities Purchase Agreement. The loans are intended for general corporate purposes and a special dividend related to the agreement. Additionally, James W. Butman resigned from UScellular’s board on July 1, 2025, with Kenneth Dixon being elected as a new director.

The most recent analyst rating on (USM) stock is a Buy with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Cellular stock, see the USM Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
US Cellular Modifies Indentures Ahead of T-Mobile Sale
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 16, 2025, T-Mobile USA announced the preliminary results of its exchange offers and consent solicitations for United States Cellular Corporation’s senior notes. The exchange offers aimed to replace USCC’s notes with new notes issued by T-Mobile USA, and the consent solicitations sought to amend certain provisions in the existing indentures. By the withdrawal deadline on June 13, 2025, T-Mobile had received the necessary consents to proceed with the proposed amendments. On June 17, 2025, USCC entered into several supplemental indentures to modify or eliminate specific provisions in anticipation of the sale of its wireless operations to T-Mobile US, Inc. These amendments will only become operative upon the closing of the acquisition, and if the settlement of the new notes does not occur within five business days post-acquisition, the amendments will be voided.

The most recent analyst rating on (USM) stock is a Buy with a $73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United States Cellular stock, see the USM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025