Usa Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQ:USAR
Want to see USAR full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
USA Rare Earth
(NASDAQ:USAR)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
USAR’s score is held back primarily by weak profitability and volatile fundamentals despite a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and recently improved cash flow. Technicals are a relative positive with price above key moving averages and steady momentum. Guidance visibility and execution/dilution risk around large pending transactions and ramp milestones remain key swing factors, while valuation support is limited due to non-meaningful P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Zero reported debt and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital-intensive buildout, underwrite milestone delays, and pursue M&A without immediate leverage pressure. This reduces bankruptcy and refinancing risk as the company scales production and integration.
Negative Factors
Sustained Unprofitability
Large cumulative net losses and negative returns on equity show the capital base has yet to translate into sustainable earnings. Persistent below-the-line losses increase dilution risk from future financing and make long-term returns highly sensitive to achieving projected synergies and throughput ramps.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Zero reported debt and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital-intensive buildout, underwrite milestone delays, and pursue M&A without immediate leverage pressure. This reduces bankruptcy and refinancing risk as the company scales production and integration.
Read all positive factors
USA Rare Earth (USAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)17.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.69
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-493.47%
CountryUS
Employees30
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.89
Shares Outstanding217,976,180
10 Day Avg. Volume17,708,007
30 Day Avg. Volume17,860,714
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.37
Price to Sales (P/S)709.95
P/FCF Ratio-13.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue26.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit129.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.40Price Target Upside77.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$80.19M
USA Rare Earth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
USA Rare Earth, Inc. operates as a magnet manufacturing company. The Company develops a NdFeB magnet manufacturing, minerals supply, extraction, and processing plant. USA Rare Earth serves defense, automotive, aviation, industrial, medical, and co...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
USA Rare Earth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights substantial strategic progress: transformational M&A (Serra Verde), a major PIPE ($1.5B) and anticipated Dept. of Commerce support ($1.6B LOI), operational milestones (Stillwater Phase 1a, commissioning hydromet demos, first commercial Yttrium pour) and clear ramp targets for magnet and metal-making capacity. These positives are tempered by early-stage revenue ($6M), a Q1 net loss of $67M (adjusted loss $24.1M), elevated operating spend, dilution and execution/timing risks tied to closing transactions and funding documentation, and remaining uncertainty around Carester volume allocations. On balance, the company appears well-financed and making tangible operational progress, but key near-term outcomes hinge on closing the announced transactions and meeting ramp milestones.Positive Updates
Strong Cash Position and Financing
Ended Q1 with approximately $1.75 billion in cash (includes $1.5 billion PIPE closed in January) and a Letter of Intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for $1.6 billion in funding (definitive documentation expected this month), materially derisking the buildout and providing liquidity to accelerate the mine-to-magnet strategy.
Negative Updates
Reported Net Loss and Noncash Adjustments
Reported net loss attributable to common stockholders of $67.0 million (loss per share $0.34), which includes a noncash fair value adjustment of $43.6 million related to warrant and earn-out liabilities; adjusted net loss excluding that adjustment was $24.1 million (adjusted loss per share $0.12).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Cash Position and Financing
Ended Q1 with approximately $1.75 billion in cash (includes $1.5 billion PIPE closed in January) and a Letter of Intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for $1.6 billion in funding (definitive documentation expected this month), materially derisking the buildout and providing liquidity to accelerate the mine-to-magnet strategy.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said they will not provide formal financial guidance now but gave detailed operational and financial metrics: Q1 revenues were ≈ $6M with gross profit slightly positive, operating expenses ≈ $37M (adjusted ongoing Opex ≈ $25M), net loss attributable to common ≈ $67M (loss/share $0.34) including a $43.6M non‑cash fair‑value adjustment, adjusted net loss ≈ $24.1M (adj loss/share $0.12); quarter‑end cash ≈ $1.75B (includes the $1.5B PIPE closed in January) and Q1 capex ≈ $40M. They expect to finalize $1.6B Department of Commerce funding documentation this month and to close the Serra Verde deal (consideration: $300M cash + ~127M shares; 8‑K valuation $3.64B with potential +25% contingent upside). Operational targets include commissioning three Wheat Ridge hydromet demonstrations within weeks, initiating customer‑ready sintered NdFeB magnet production in Q2 and beginning sales in H2 2026, ramping Stillwater to a 600 metric ton/year run rate by year‑end (with later ramp toward 1,200 tpy), bringing finishing equipment online at the start of Q3, scaling LCM metal‑making and strip‑cast capacity to 3,000 tpy by Q4, Carester to start ramping at year‑end and scale through 2027, completing the Round Top definitive feasibility study by year‑end and publishing in Q1 2027, commencing a 3‑rig >15,000 ft core drilling campaign, and noting a potential Phase‑2 doubling of Pela Ema capacity; customers are seeking safety stocks (OEMs directing up to a 1‑year supply) and some buyers have Jan 1, 2027 non‑China sourcing deadlines.USA Rare Earth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.34M | 1.64M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 1.48M | 195.00K | 958.89M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -249.40M | -296.96M | -15.20M | 7.93M | -23.59M |
| Net Income | -416.38M | -297.56M | -15.73M | 6.75M | -23.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.13B | 695.00M | 71.26M | 259.47M | 5.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.75B | 359.93M | 2.10K | 275.67K | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 11.37M | 3.05M | 1.20M | 0.00 | 3.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 247.47M | 200.71M | 17.09M | 13.41M | 3.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.88B | 492.63M | 24.14M | 246.06M | 2.19B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -131.10M | -86.34M | -1.40M | -1.14K | -19.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -57.11M | -48.98M | -1.40M | -1.14K | -14.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -175.16M | -139.57M | 246.92M | -251.25M | -15.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.96B | 531.72M | -245.79M | 252.47M | 22.26M |
USA Rare Earth Risk Analysis
USA Rare Earth disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. USA Rare Earth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
USA Rare Earth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $10.09B | -269.02 | -3.49% | ― | 60.93% | 34.20% | |
58 Neutral | $4.64B | -11.10 | -76.51% | ― | ― | -493.47% | |
55 Neutral | $405.15M | -2.72 | -63.85% | ― | 776.51% | 38.07% | |
52 Neutral | $1.19B | -0.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -48.46% | |
48 Neutral | $739.97M | -27.50 | -15.03% | 1.17% | -11.77% | -85.76% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
USAR
USA Rare Earth
19.97
10.75
116.78%
GSM
Ferroglobe
3.84
0.09
2.48%
ABAT
American Battery Technology
2.84
1.52
115.15%
MP
MP Materials
54.93
35.43
181.69%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
9.80
8.31
557.72%
IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
34.17
11.34
49.67%
USA Rare Earth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth Highlights Risks in SVRE Merger Update
Negative
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. filed a Current Report on Form 8-K to update investors on risks and disclosures tied to its planned merger with SVRE Holdings Ltd. and related transactions. The filing supplements the company’s 2025 Form...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
USA Rare Earth Announces Board Changes Ahead of Merger
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 20, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced that directors Mordechai Gutnick and General Paul Kern would not stand for reelection at the June 3, 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, prompting the board to reduce its size to six members a...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth Announces Merger Agreement with SVRE Holdings
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
On April 20, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced it had entered into a definitive merger agreement dated April 19, 2026 with SVRE Holdings Ltd. through a wholly owned British Virgin Islands merger subsidiary, with Serra Verde Rare Earths Ltd. act...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
USA Rare Earth to Acquire Serra Verde in Major Deal
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
On April 19, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. signed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of British Virgin Islands–based SVRE Holdings Ltd., parent of Brazil’s Serra Verde Group, in a cash-and-stock deal valuing Serra Verde at about $2.8 ...
Business Operations and Strategy
USA Rare Earth Forms Strategic Rare Earth Alliance in France
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, USA Rare Earth said it had signed a term sheet with France’s Carester SAS and InfraVia under which USA Rare Earth and InfraVia each aim to acquire about 12.5% of Carester, a specialist in rare earth processing and separatio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
USA Rare Earth Adds Semiconductor Leader to Board
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced the appointment of semiconductor veteran Dr. Thomas Caulfield to its board of directors, effective March 9, 2026, succeeding Tready A. Smith after her five years of service, with the board remainin...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
USA Rare Earth to Acquire Texas Mineral Resources
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, USA Rare Earth agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Texas Mineral Resources in an all-stock deal valued at about $73 million, issuing 3,823,328 USAR shares and consolidating full ownership and economics of the Round Top he...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth Posts Updated Investor Presentation for Shareholders
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced that it is posting a new investor presentation on the investor relations section of its corporate website, making updated company information available to current and prospective shareholders. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.