Usa Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
NASDAQ:USAR
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USA Rare Earth
(NASDAQ:USAR)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(12.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance—especially the 2025 revenue collapse, large losses, and persistent negative free cash flow—alongside soft technical momentum (negative MACD and below the 50-day average). Offsetting factors include constructive earnings-call messaging about liquidity and operational scaling, plus positive strategic corporate developments, but these are not yet reflected in stable profitability or cash generation.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity
A large cash balance plus near-term warrant proceeds meaningfully extend runway for capital-intensive buildout. This reduces short-term solvency pressure, enabling the company to fund pilot production, commissioning and M&A activities without immediate reliance on dilutive capital markets.
Negative Factors
Revenue Collapse & Large Losses
A near-total revenue collapse and massive loss reflect extreme earnings instability and weak operational continuity. Such volatility undermines creditworthiness, investor confidence and long-term planning, making sustainable margin recovery and predictable cash generation more difficult over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Liquidity
A large cash balance plus near-term warrant proceeds meaningfully extend runway for capital-intensive buildout. This reduces short-term solvency pressure, enabling the company to fund pilot production, commissioning and M&A activities without immediate reliance on dilutive capital markets.
Read all positive factors
USA Rare Earth (USAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.94
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees30
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.19
Shares Outstanding217,976,180
10 Day Avg. Volume9,944,747
30 Day Avg. Volume11,965,871
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.37
Price to Sales (P/S)709.95
P/FCF Ratio-13.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.50Price Target Upside128.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$50.82M
USA Rare Earth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
USA Rare Earth, Inc. operates as a magnet manufacturing company. The Company develops a NdFeB magnet manufacturing, minerals supply, extraction, and processing plant. USA Rare Earth serves defense, automotive, aviation, industrial, medical, and co...
How the Company Makes Money
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USA Rare Earth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveys a mostly positive sentiment with significant highlights such as a strong cash position, strategic acquisition, and operational progress in manufacturing and recycling. Despite the reported net loss, the company is positioned well financially and strategically to execute its plans.Positive Updates
Strong Cash Position
USA Rare Earth has over $400 million in cash as of November 3, 2025, providing flexibility and liquidity to execute their strategy. Additional $123 million expected from warrant exercises.
Negative Updates
Net Loss
Reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $156.7 million, including a noncash fair value adjustment of $142.4 million related to warrant and earn-out liabilities.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Cash Position
USA Rare Earth has over $400 million in cash as of November 3, 2025, providing flexibility and liquidity to execute their strategy. Additional $123 million expected from warrant exercises.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call, USA Rare Earth provided guidance on multiple metrics and strategic initiatives. The company reported a strong cash position of over $400 million as of November 3, 2025, with an additional $123 million expected from investor warrants. The focus is on ramping up their magnet production capacity to meet the growing demand projected for 2026 and beyond. The company is accelerating its investment in manufacturing capabilities, including enhancing magnet finishing capabilities and ramping Line 1 to 1,200 metric tons with an investment of approximately $100 million. USA Rare Earth is also advancing its acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM), expected to close by year-end, which will enhance their supply chain capabilities. The company is progressing with a pre-feasibility study for the Round Top development project, targeting completion by Q3 2026, and plans to begin pilot scale testing for swarf recycling in early 2026. Additionally, they anticipate adjusted operating expenses of $13 million to $15 million for Q4 2025. The company reported a net loss of $156.7 million, including a noncash adjustment, with an adjusted net loss of $14.3 million. Overall, USA Rare Earth is focused on disciplined execution and scaling their operations to meet future demand.USA Rare Earth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 1.64M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 195.00K | 958.89M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -296.96M | 871.08M | 7.93M | -23.59M |
| Net Income | -297.56M | 7.90M | 6.75M | -23.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 695.00M | 24.14M | 259.47M | 5.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 359.93M | 2.10K | 275.67K | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 11.95M | 1.20M | 0.00 | 3.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 191.81M | 17.09M | 13.41M | 3.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 492.63M | 24.14M | 246.06M | 2.19B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -86.34M | -1.40M | -1.14K | -19.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -48.98M | -1.40M | -1.14K | -14.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -139.57M | 246.92M | -251.25M | -15.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 531.72M | -245.79M | 252.47M | 22.26M |
USA Rare Earth Risk Analysis
USA Rare Earth disclosed 98 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. USA Rare Earth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
USA Rare Earth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
50 Neutral | $790.42M | -5.12 | -22.22% | 1.17% | -16.89% | -403.77% | |
49 Neutral | $378.01M | -11.63 | -46.98% | ― | 821.40% | 44.70% | |
48 Neutral | $9.67B | -100.09 | -5.04% | ― | 26.44% | -95.87% | |
47 Neutral | $3.66B | -3.92 | -49.89% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | $1.06B | -0.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -18.77% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
USAR
USA Rare Earth
16.78
8.29
97.64%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.23
1.04
32.39%
ABAT
American Battery Technology
2.87
1.90
195.88%
MP
MP Materials
54.44
30.90
131.27%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
8.61
7.07
459.09%
IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
30.95
16.72
117.50%
USA Rare Earth Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
USA Rare Earth Forms Strategic Rare Earth Alliance in France
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, USA Rare Earth said it had signed a term sheet with France’s Carester SAS and InfraVia under which USA Rare Earth and InfraVia each aim to acquire about 12.5% of Carester, a specialist in rare earth processing and separatio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
USA Rare Earth Adds Semiconductor Leader to Board
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced the appointment of semiconductor veteran Dr. Thomas Caulfield to its board of directors, effective March 9, 2026, succeeding Tready A. Smith after her five years of service, with the board remainin...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
USA Rare Earth to Acquire Texas Mineral Resources
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, USA Rare Earth agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Texas Mineral Resources in an all-stock deal valued at about $73 million, issuing 3,823,328 USAR shares and consolidating full ownership and economics of the Round Top he...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
USA Rare Earth Posts Updated Investor Presentation for Shareholders
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. announced that it is posting a new investor presentation on the investor relations section of its corporate website, making updated company information available to current and prospective shareholders. T...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
USA Rare Earth Announces Major CHIPS Funding and PIPE
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, USA Rare Earth announced a non-binding letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Program for an expected $1.6 billion package comprising $277 million in proposed federal funding and a proposed $1.3 bi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.