Upwork (UPWK)
NASDAQ:UPWK
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Upwork
(NASDAQ:UPWK)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(10.40% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong improving fundamentals (profitability inflection, high margins, and robust free cash flow) and a constructive, profitability-preserving 2026 outlook. These positives are meaningfully offset by very weak technicals (downtrend and bearish momentum despite oversold readings) and execution risk from a backloaded enterprise ramp and near-term integration-related margin pressure.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Material, durable free cash flow gives Upwork flexibility to fund product investment, acquisitions, and the $300M buyback without eroding operations. Strong FCF reduces refinancing risk, supports disciplined capital allocation, and underpins margin durability through economic cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Backloaded enterprise ramp & integration risk
The Lyfted enterprise transition is backloaded and incurs near-term margin dilution and integration costs. Longer sales cycles for enterprise mean revenue realization depends on execution; delays or higher-than-expected integration costs could compress margins and slow the path to targeted low‑30s exit margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Material, durable free cash flow gives Upwork flexibility to fund product investment, acquisitions, and the $300M buyback without eroding operations. Strong FCF reduces refinancing risk, supports disciplined capital allocation, and underpins margin durability through economic cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Upwork (UPWK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.4
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth2.50%
EPS Growth187.92%
CountryUS
Employees600
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryStaffing & Employment Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding130,380,220
10 Day Avg. Volume3,208,791
30 Day Avg. Volume3,416,160
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)4.11
Price to Sales (P/S)3.29
P/FCF Ratio10.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.10Price Target Upside103.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$842.56M
Upwork Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upwork Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a work marketplace that connects businesses with various independent professionals and agencies in the United States, India, the Philippines, and internationally. The company's work marketplace...
How the Company Makes Money
Upwork generates revenue primarily by monetizing transactions and services on its marketplace. A key revenue stream is fees tied to work performed and paid through the platform (often described as a take rate on gross services volume), where Upwor...
Upwork Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Clients
Measures the number of clients engaging with Upwork's platform, indicating user retention, platform appeal, and potential for recurring revenue.
Measures the number of clients engaging with Upwork's platform, indicating user retention, platform appeal, and potential for recurring revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUpwork Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive tone: management highlighted a completed multi-year transformation, record annual revenue and adjusted EBITDA, strong free cash flow, improving monetization (higher take rate), rapid adoption of Business Plus, and substantial AI-led growth trends. At the same time, near-term headwinds include flat marketplace GSV driven by losses in very low-value contracts, a temporary decline in legacy enterprise revenue while migrating to the new Lyfted/Listed platform, integration costs and short-term margin dilution from Lyfted investments, and exposure to secular declines in certain categories. Management provided 2026 guidance that preserves profitability (targeting ~29% adjusted EBITDA margin) but is backloaded, increasing execution risk. Overall, the highlights (record financials, AI and SMB momentum, strong cash generation, margin discipline) outweigh the lowlights (transitional enterprise drag, integration costs, some category pressure and backloaded growth risk), resulting in a constructive but execution-dependent outlook.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financials
Full-year 2025 GSV exceeded $4.0B, revenue of $788M (up 2.4% year-over-year), and record adjusted EBITDA of $226M with a 29% adjusted EBITDA margin (highest annual margin on record).
Negative Updates
Marketplace GSV Pressure from Low-Value Contracts
Marketplace GSV growth was relatively flat in Q4 YoY, driven primarily by a decline in low-value, high-volume contracts (sub-$100 and other very small transactional projects).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financials
Full-year 2025 GSV exceeded $4.0B, revenue of $788M (up 2.4% year-over-year), and record adjusted EBITDA of $226M with a 29% adjusted EBITDA margin (highest annual margin on record).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Upwork guided full‑year 2026 GSV growth of 4–6% and revenue growth of 6–8% (targeting $835–$850M), with adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 29% (adjusted EBITDA $240–$250M) and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $1.43–$1.48; Q1 2026 guidance is adjusted EBITDA $45–$47M (23–24% margin), non‑GAAP diluted EPS $0.26–$0.28 and revenue of $192–$197M, with management expecting GSV, take rate, and revenue to increase sequentially from Q2 and to exit 2026 with margins in the low‑30s on the path to a long‑term ~35% target; operational goals called for Business Plus GSV to double to >5% of total GSV in 2026 and for enterprise (Lyfted) to target ~25% GSV growth with ramp in H2, while noting the broader AI/agent opportunity (agent spend projected ~$120B by 2028).Upwork Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 787.78M | 769.33M | 689.14M | 618.32M | 502.80M |
| Gross Profit | 613.03M | 595.23M | 518.69M | 457.92M | 367.29M |
| EBITDA | 163.45M | 82.86M | 1.46M | -81.49M | -40.13M |
| Net Income | 115.42M | 215.59M | 46.89M | -89.89M | -56.24M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.30B | 1.21B | 1.04B | 1.08B | 1.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 676.38M | 622.10M | 550.10M | 686.61M | 684.77M |
| Total Debt | 380.86M | 369.12M | 367.86M | 581.94M | 584.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 669.26M | 636.24M | 656.47M | 831.37M | 821.54M |
| Stockholders Equity | 630.32M | 575.38M | 381.07M | 248.88M | 259.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 242.47M | 139.12M | 36.36M | 2.76M | 4.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 248.26M | 153.56M | 52.71M | 11.50M | 10.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -136.94M | 137.57M | 88.27M | -69.47M | -428.98M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -138.00M | -81.96M | -139.79M | 1.14M | 537.74M |
Upwork Technical Analysis
Negative
10.87
Price Trends
15.12
Negative
17.25
Negative
16.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.05
Negative
30.12
Neutral
11.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPWK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.17, below the 50-day MA of 15.12, and below the 200-day MA of 16.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPWK.
Upwork Risk Analysis
Upwork disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Upwork reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Upwork Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.42B | 22.43 | 18.76% | ― | 2.50% | 187.92% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $116.92M | -5.14 | -13.17% | ― | -9.13% | -1032.39% | |
56 Neutral | $313.30M | -1.20 | -22.10% | 3.53% | 0.46% | -477.90% | |
55 Neutral | $518.36M | 15.78 | 26.32% | 5.12% | -5.91% | -23.01% | |
44 Neutral | $5.76M | -0.83 | -78.12% | ― | -7.26% | -1.37% | |
44 Neutral | $145.19M | -10.62 | 57.25% | ― | -10.14% | -1381.34% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
UPWK
Upwork
10.87
-2.18
-16.70%
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IPDN
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1.18
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Upwork Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upwork Restructures Marketplace Leadership After Executive Resignation
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Upwork Inc. and David T. Bottoms, GM of Marketplace, agreed to his resignation, with Bottoms remaining employed through April 3, 2026, and a formal separation agreement executed on March 17, 2026. Under this agreement, Bottoms w...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Upwork Announces Flexible $300 Million Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Upwork Inc. announced that its board of directors had authorized a new share repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $300 million of its outstanding common stock. The authorization permits repurchases on the...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Upwork posts solid 2025 results and upbeat 2026 outlook
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Upwork’s board adopted amended and restated bylaws that establish a formal cure process for certain deficiencies in director nomination notices submitted by shareholders, giving investors an opportunity to correct incomp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.