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Umicore SA (UMICY)
OTHER OTC:UMICY
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Umicore SA
(OTC:UMICY)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-17.58% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/22/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability recovery and positive free cash flow) but held back by balance-sheet leverage and reduced equity. Technical signals are also weak in the near term, and valuation appears expensive at a high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary was supportive overall, emphasizing margin/EBITDA progress and disciplined capital allocation, but highlighted ongoing battery-segment profitability risks.
Positive Factors
Diversified high‑margin businesses
Umicore's mix of Catalysis and Specialty Materials delivers structurally higher margins and end‑market exposure to emission controls and specialty inputs. These defensible cash‑generating franchises reduce reliance on cyclical battery demand and support long‑term cash flow and reinvestment.
Improving cash generation and deleveraging
Sustained positive operating cash flow and material net‑debt reduction signal stronger financial resilience. Improved free cash flow provides capacity for disciplined reinvestment, targeted deleveraging to target leverage, and supports dividends, improving structural flexibility across cycles.
Disciplined cost and CapEx management
Achievement of EUR 100m in recurring efficiencies and explicit guidance to restrain CapEx indicates durable operational discipline. This conserves cash, raises margin floor and enables selective investment in high‑return projects while limiting the capital intensity of growth initiatives over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weaker equity base
Although improving, leverage and a materially reduced equity base limit financial flexibility for M&A, cyclical shocks or large project funding. Persistent higher leverage raises refinancing and interest risks and constrains the company's ability to absorb commodity or demand downturns over the medium term.
Battery Recycling loss profile
A structurally loss‑making recycling unit requires sustained optimization and capital to reach consistent profitability. Continued losses can drain group cash, distract management, and raise the hurdle for scale‑up, making the battery value‑chain exposure a multi‑period execution risk.
Battery materials profitability & hedging limits upside
Breakeven performance in cathode materials amid global overcapacity and competitive pressures signals structural margin risk. Heavy metal hedging reduces earnings volatility but caps upside if commodity prices recover, constraining long‑run upside from commodity cycles that historically boost refining margins.
Umicore SA (UMICY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.29B
Dividend Yield2.7%
Average Volume (3M)2.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth3.16%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees11,251
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment Controls
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding985,600,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,230
30 Day Avg. Volume2,343
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.91
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio13.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.34Price Target Upside16.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.32B
Umicore SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUmicore SA operates as a materials technology and recycling company worldwide. The company operates through Catalysis, Energy & Surface Technologies, and Recycling segments. The Catalysis segment produces automotive catalysts for gasoline, and diesel light and heavy-duty diesel applications; stationary catalysis for industrial emissions control; and precious metals-based compounds and catalysts for use in the pharmaceutical and fine chemicals industries, as well as fuel cell applications. The Energy & Surface Technologies segment offers cobalt and specialty materials, rechargeable battery materials, and electro-optic materials, as well as metal deposition solutions, including electroplating and PVD coating. The Recycling segment treats waste streams containing precious and other specialty metals from a range of industrial residues and end-of-life materials. This segment also produces precious metals-based materials for glass production, electric, and electronic applications. The company was formerly known as Union Minière du Haut Katanga and changed its name to Umicore SA in 2001. Umicore SA was founded in 1805 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
How the Company Makes MoneyUmicore makes money primarily by selling advanced materials and by earning processing and refining-related income from its recycling activities. A major revenue stream comes from its catalysis business, where it supplies automotive and industrial catalyst products (including emission-control catalysts) to customers such as automotive manufacturers and suppliers; revenue is generated through product sales contracts tied to volumes and specifications required to meet emissions standards. Another key stream is energy and surface technologies, where it sells battery-related materials and other specialty materials used in rechargeable batteries and various industrial applications; revenues are driven by demand from battery and automotive supply chains and typically take the form of materials sales to cell makers and cathode/battery supply chain partners. In recycling, Umicore generates revenue by recovering and selling refined metals (including precious metals) and by providing recycling and metal processing services; earnings in this segment are influenced by throughput volumes, processing terms, and prevailing commodity prices for the recovered metals. Across these activities, factors that can materially impact revenue and profitability include automotive production trends and emissions regulations (catalysts), EV/battery adoption and customer qualification/contracting cycles (battery materials), and commodity price movements and available feedstock supply (recycling).
Umicore SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive financial and operational story: strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+11%), margin expansion to 24%, disciplined CapEx (EUR 310m), EUR 100m of efficiency savings, significant cash proceeds from a gold sale-and-lease-in and measurable deleveraging (leverage 1.6x). These achievements were balanced against ongoing challenges in Battery Materials (breakeven EBITDA), a still loss-making Battery Recycling unit, hedging that caps upside in a strong metal price cycle, FX and financing headwinds, and short-term operational inefficiencies in recycling. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, the supportive foundation businesses (Catalysis, Precious Metals, Specialty Materials), and confidence that adjusted EBITDA should progress in 2026, indicating momentum overall despite sector volatility.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% year-on-year to EUR 847 million, driven by volume growth across businesses and EUR 100 million of efficiency savings; adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 22% to 24% (≈+2 percentage points).
Strong Cash Generation and Balance Sheet Improvements
Free cash flow from operations was EUR 524 million; cash proceeds from sale-and-lease-in of permanent gold inventory of ~EUR 525 million; net debt reduced to EUR 1.4 billion with leverage down to 1.6x (from 1.9x at end-2024); cash of EUR 1.6 billion after repaying a EUR 500 million convertible bond.
Efficiency Delivery and Cost Discipline
Delivered EUR 100 million of efficiency benefits (target met), which more than offset inflation of EUR 68 million in 2025; group headcount reduced by 3% and COGS/SG&A/R&D reductions accounted for material savings.
Improved Profitability and Returns
Adjusted EBIT rose 21% to EUR 579 million; adjusted net income improved to EUR 288 million (up EUR 33 million) and adjusted EPS rose 13% to EUR 1.20; return on capital employed improved from 12.3% to 15.7%.
CapEx Discipline
Capital expenditures were reduced to EUR 310 million (below original ~EUR 400 million guidance), reflecting disciplined phasing of Battery Cathode investments and selective spending in Recycling and Specialty Materials.
Business Group Strengths — Catalysis & Specialty Materials
Catalysis delivered solid demand and a 27% EBITDA margin, with Auto Cat volumes outperforming ICE markets and fuel cell catalyst deliveries increasing; Specialty Materials posted 16% EBITDA growth with margins approaching 20%, driven by cobalt premium products and strong germanium demand.
Take-or-Pay Contracts Supporting Battery Business
Take-or-pay contractual compensation materially supported Battery Materials revenues (Battery Cathode revenue up ~11% vs 2024), helping offset slower-than-expected ramp-ups and market volatility.
Successful Balance Sheet Optimization Move
Sale and lease-in of permanent gold inventory generated a pretax gain of EUR 486 million, unlocked significant value, reduced finance costs and transferred long-term price risk outside the company (lease rates cited ~0.5–1%).
Negative Updates
Battery Materials Profitability Still Weak
Battery Cathode Materials adjusted EBITDA came in around breakeven in 2025 (an improvement but still low), reflecting market volatility, competitive overcapacity (notably in China) and weaker refining income from cobalt and nickel price headwinds.
Battery Recycling Losses Persist
Battery Recycling Solutions remained loss-making in 2025 at around minus EUR 21 million (improved vs prior guidance of -EUR 25 million) and continues to require optimization and cost control before returning to consistent profitability.
Hedging Limits Upside in a Strong Metal Price Environment
Substantial hedges (≈70% of exposure for 2026–27) reduced volatility but limit upside when metal prices rally; rolling off of favourable hedges led to a EUR 17 million decline in metal result in 2025 and lower average hedge support in 2026 vs 2025.
FX and Finance Headwinds
Foreign exchange translational headwind of around EUR 45 million and adjusted net finance costs increased to EUR 173 million (up EUR 65 million), partly from lower interest income on cash and adverse FX/forward points.
Working Capital and NWC Increase
Net working capital increased by EUR 298 million in 2025, driven by higher activity and rising metal prices, creating additional cash demands despite strong operating cash generation.
Operational Issues in Recycling Plant
Temporary process inefficiencies (additional costs and rework) were recorded in Precious Metals Recycling (Hoboken), prompting a planned shutdown/maintenance in the near term; these issues were offset in 2025 but are a short-term drag and cost source.
Market & Geopolitical Volatility Impacting Demand
Fragmented geopolitical environment, policy shifts (notably U.S. EV policy), potential export restrictions from China and intense competition/overcapacity in battery supply chains create uncertainty for medium-term EV and cathode demand.
Residual Non‑Recurring Adjustments and JV Impairments
Adjustments to EBITDA totaled EUR 365 million (including a pretax gain on gold inventory sale partially offset by an impairment of Element 6 JV and restructuring provisions); derecognition of a deferred tax asset affected adjusted net result comparatives.
Company Guidance
The company said it will not give a concrete 2026 EBITDA number but expects adjusted EBITDA to “further progress” next year after reporting EUR 847m adj. EBITDA (24% margin) in 2025; CapEx is guided to a disciplined EUR 300–400m (down from prior expectations and excluding IONWAY equity), with IONWAY equity contributions staying within the previously disclosed ~EUR 500m budget for 2025–26 and not exceeding ~EUR 250m in 2026 (EUR 425m already invested to date); management delivered EUR 100m of efficiencies in 2025 and is targeting savings to offset anticipated inflation of ~EUR 50–75m in 2026; balance‑sheet targets remain a structural leverage of 1.5–2x (end‑2025 leverage 1.6x, net debt EUR 1.4bn, cash EUR 1.6bn, free operating cash flow EUR 524m in 2025), dividend policy unchanged at EUR 0.50/share (payout ~42%), and the company will continue hedging (roughly 70% of metal exposure locked for ’26–’27, exploring 2029–30 hedges subject to market/backwardation and counterparty availability), while accepting a slight rise in corporate costs for AI investment and managing working capital pressures (NWC rose ~EUR 298m in 2025).Umicore SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
2025 shows a clear rebound with revenue up (+15.6%) and a return to profitability, supported by positive and improving free cash flow. Offsetting this, leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.27) and equity has declined since 2023, leaving less balance-sheet flexibility and highlighting ongoing volatility risk after a very weak 2024.Income Statement
Results show a clear profitability recovery in 2025 versus 2024: revenue rose to 18.6B (+15.6%) and net income turned positive (369M) after a large loss in 2024 (-1.48B). However, profitability is still thin in 2025 (about 2.0% net margin) and well below the 2021–2023 norm, and the sharp 2024 downturn highlights earnings volatility and sensitivity to adverse conditions.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains elevated: 2025 debt-to-equity is ~1.27, an improvement from 2024 (~1.78) but still higher than 2021–2023 (~0.67–0.95). Equity has declined materially from 2023 to 2025 (3.66B to 2.24B), limiting balance-sheet flexibility, even as total debt has come down from 2024 levels (3.45B to 2.84B).44
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive and improving versus 2024, with 2025 operating cash flow of 596M and free cash flow of 321M (higher than 2024’s 287M). Free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of earnings in 2025 (free cash flow is ~54% of net income), but overall cash flow conversion has been inconsistent over the cycle, and cash flow relative to debt remains modest based on the provided coverage ratios.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.61B | 14.85B | 18.27B | 25.44B | 24.05B |
| Gross Profit | 1.34B | 2.21B | 1.52B | 1.67B | 1.57B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 432.60M | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.15B |
| Net Income | 369.32M | -1.48B | 385.07M | 569.88M | 618.96M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.46B | 9.41B | 9.97B | 9.94B | 9.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.56B | 2.01B | 1.52B | 1.24B | 1.19B |
| Total Debt | 2.84B | 3.45B | 2.75B | 2.35B | 2.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.18B | 7.49B | 6.27B | 6.38B | 5.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.24B | 1.94B | 3.66B | 3.52B | 3.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 321.49M | 286.50M | 157.92M | 142.88M | 842.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.01M | 868.70M | 1.04B | 634.17M | 1.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -542.99M | -775.70M | -948.70M | -480.77M | -471.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -568.83M | 413.50M | 129.28M | -112.53M | -602.37M |
Umicore SA Technical Analysis
Negative
5.46
Price Trends
5.47
Negative
5.15
Negative
4.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Positive
33.40
Neutral
13.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMICY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.98, below the 50-day MA of 5.47, and above the 200-day MA of 4.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UMICY.
Umicore SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $499.76M | 31.61 | 11.92% | ― | 0.10% | 1.50% | |
67 Neutral | $1.82B | 42.25 | 16.53% | ― | 29.86% | 331.33% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $38.08M | -20.77 | -5.70% | ― | -5.66% | -397.46% | |
54 Neutral | $4.29B | 11.55 | 14.77% | 2.70% | 3.16% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $51.79M | -2.39 | -160.16% | ― | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | $1.05B | ― | -161.85% | ― | ― | 12.57% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UMICY
Umicore SA
4.45
2.01
82.85%
CECO
Ceco Environmental
55.28
30.14
119.89%
ERII
Energy Recovery
9.46
-7.37
-43.79%
FTEK
Fuel Tech
1.24
0.24
24.00%
SCWO
374Water
3.06
-0.63
-17.07%
PCT
PureCycle Technologies
5.79
-2.34
-28.78%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.