Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $37.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 401.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: -53.67%
• EPS Growth: 86.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -46.64
• Shares Outstanding: 9,381,344
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,070,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 401,545
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.04
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 24.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.85
• 1Y Price Target: $9.20
• Price Target Upside: 131.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 38 Underperform
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(0.50% Upside)

Cara Therapeutics' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and negative profitability. The technical analysis also suggests a bearish trend, with the stock trading below major moving averages. Valuation metrics further reflect the company's financial struggles, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. While there are some positive developments in clinical trials, the recent setback in the Phase 2 trial underscores ongoing challenges.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Position

Tvardi's strong cash position provides a solid runway to fund operations into late 2026, supporting ongoing R&D and strategic initiatives.

Pipeline Progress

Advancements in clinical trials for TTI-101 indicate potential breakthroughs in oncology and fibrosis treatments, enhancing long-term growth prospects.

Innovative Drug Development

The development of TTI-109 as a next-gen STAT3 inhibitor showcases Tvardi's innovation, potentially improving drug delivery and patient outcomes.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Setback

The failure of the Phase 2 IPF trial highlights challenges in clinical efficacy, potentially delaying product development and impacting market confidence.

Revenue Decline

The substantial revenue decline reflects ongoing struggles to achieve stable financial performance, affecting long-term sustainability and growth.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flow from operations suggests inefficiencies in cash conversion, posing risks to financial health and operational funding.

Tvardi Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tvardi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel, oral small molecule therapies targeting STAT3 to treat fibrosis-driven diseases with significant unmet need. Their lead candidate, TTI-101, is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

How the Company Makes Money

Tvardi Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. The company may receive funding through various mechanisms, including grants, equity financing, and strategic partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms that provide financial support in exchange for future royalties or profit-sharing agreements. Additionally, Tvardi may generate revenue from licensing agreements for its drug candidates or technologies, as well as from milestone payments associated with the successful progression of its products through clinical trials and regulatory approvals. Ongoing research collaborations and partnerships can also contribute to the company's earnings by providing access to additional resources and expertise.

Tvardi Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cara Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, characterized by declining revenues, negative profitability, and weakening balance sheet strength. The persistent negative cash flows further exacerbate the risk profile, indicating a need for strategic adjustments to improve financial stability and investor confidence.

Income Statement

Cara Therapeutics has experienced significant revenue volatility over recent years, with a sharp decline from $135 million in 2020 to $7.1 million in 2024. The company has consistently reported negative net income, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Gross profit margins have been positive when revenue is present, but operating margins such as EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reflecting substantial operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Cara Therapeutics shows a concerning trend with the stockholders' equity turning negative in 2024, a sign of financial distress. The company has managed its debt levels well, with no debt in 2024, but the negative equity ratio and substantial liabilities are risks. Previously, the company had a stronger equity position, but recent losses have eroded this significantly.

Cash Flow

Cash flows from operations have been consistently negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from core activities. The free cash flow position has also worsened, and despite occasional influxes from financing activities, the company's ability to sustain its cash burn rate is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains poor, highlighting inefficiencies in cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.58M	7.14M	20.97M	41.87M	23.03M	135.08M
Gross Profit	6.42M	6.33M	14.54M	34.35M	21.47M	0.00
EBITDA	-26.76M	-62.60M	-117.65M	-83.80M	-86.89M	8.73M
Net Income	-20.89M	-70.87M	-118.51M	-85.47M	-88.44M	8.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	43.75M	43.83M	27.00M	45.10M	247.06M	271.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.99M	37.90M	22.92M	43.74M	167.03M	180.93M
Total Debt	254.00K	44.45M	368.00K	2.37M	3.67M	5.28M
Total Liabilities	10.82M	48.42M	89.06M	90.15M	19.53M	22.16M
Stockholders Equity	32.93M	-4.59M	-62.06M	-45.05M	227.52M	249.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.58M	-61.96M	-21.04M	-17.92M	-60.13M	-5.84M
Operating Cash Flow	-31.58M	-60.92M	-21.04M	-17.87M	-60.09M	-5.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.93M	48.74M	22.47M	-22.00M	-4.75M	-20.27M
Financing Cash Flow	20.71M	-3.60M	2.00K	4.00K	46.61M	39.14M

Tvardi Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.98
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TVRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.10, below the 50-day MA of 6.10, and below the 200-day MA of 20.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.50 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TVRD.

Tvardi Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PSTV	44 Neutral	$79.71M	-0.29	―	―	-8.16%	22.44%
ALGS	40 Underperform	$65.41M	-0.52	-141.82%	―	-55.88%	6.14%
TVRD	38 Underperform	$37.06M	-0.39	-97.61%	―	-53.67%	86.75%
CUE	37 Underperform	$31.50M	-0.75	-195.19%	―	-25.51%	49.72%

Tvardi Therapeutics Corporate Events

Tvardi Therapeutics Advances STAT3 Inhibitor Clinical Trials

Tvardi Therapeutics announced significant progress in its clinical trials, particularly with its STAT3 inhibitor, TTI-101, which has shown promising results in reducing inflammation, fibrosis, and tumor growth in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) models. The company is also conducting ongoing Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials, with anticipated data releases in the first half of 2026, potentially impacting the treatment landscape for fibrosis-driven diseases and HCC.

Tvardi Therapeutics Faces Setback in Phase 2 Trial

On October 13, 2025, Tvardi Therapeutics provided an update on preliminary data from its Phase 2 REVERT trial for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), revealing that the study did not meet its goals. Despite the trial’s randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled design, no significant differences in lung function improvement were observed between the treatment and placebo groups, with high discontinuation rates due to gastrointestinal adverse events. Tvardi plans further analysis to understand these results and continues to develop its next-generation STAT3 inhibitor, TTI-109, with preliminary data expected in 2026.