Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $36.21M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 401.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.30
• Revenue Growth: -53.67%
• EPS Growth: 86.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 9,381,344
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,070,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 401,545
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.04
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.56
• 1Y Price Target: $8.40
• Price Target Upside: 112.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(1.27% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline, ongoing losses, negative operating cash flow, and negative equity). Technicals are mixed with only modest near-term support but a weak longer-term trend. Corporate events are a moderate offset due to upcoming catalysts, but recent mixed clinical readouts keep risk elevated, and valuation is not supportive given loss-making status.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Position

Tvardi's strong cash position provides a solid runway to fund operations into late 2026, supporting ongoing R&D and strategic initiatives.

Pipeline Progress

Advancements in clinical trials for TTI-101 indicate potential breakthroughs in oncology and fibrosis treatments, enhancing long-term growth prospects.

Innovative Drug Development

The development of TTI-109 as a next-gen STAT3 inhibitor showcases Tvardi's innovation, potentially improving drug delivery and patient outcomes.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Setback

The failure of the Phase 2 IPF trial highlights challenges in clinical efficacy, potentially delaying product development and impacting market confidence.

Revenue Decline

The substantial revenue decline reflects ongoing struggles to achieve stable financial performance, affecting long-term sustainability and growth.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flow from operations suggests inefficiencies in cash conversion, posing risks to financial health and operational funding.

Tvardi Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tvardi Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel, oral small molecule therapies targeting STAT3 to treat fibrosis-driven diseases with significant unmet need. Their lead candidate, TTI-101, is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

How the Company Makes Money

Tvardi Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. The company may receive funding through various mechanisms, including grants, equity financing, and strategic partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms that provide financial support in exchange for future royalties or profit-sharing agreements. Additionally, Tvardi may generate revenue from licensing agreements for its drug candidates or technologies, as well as from milestone payments associated with the successful progression of its products through clinical trials and regulatory approvals. Ongoing research collaborations and partnerships can also contribute to the company's earnings by providing access to additional resources and expertise.

Tvardi Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak financial profile driven by steep revenue decline (from $135M in 2020 to $7.1M in 2024), persistent net losses with deeply negative operating margins, negative operating/free cash flow, and stockholders’ equity turning negative in 2024 (despite no debt reported).

Income Statement

Cara Therapeutics has experienced significant revenue volatility over recent years, with a sharp decline from $135 million in 2020 to $7.1 million in 2024. The company has consistently reported negative net income, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Gross profit margins have been positive when revenue is present, but operating margins such as EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reflecting substantial operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Cara Therapeutics shows a concerning trend with the stockholders' equity turning negative in 2024, a sign of financial distress. The company has managed its debt levels well, with no debt in 2024, but the negative equity ratio and substantial liabilities are risks. Previously, the company had a stronger equity position, but recent losses have eroded this significantly.

Cash Flow

Cash flows from operations have been consistently negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from core activities. The free cash flow position has also worsened, and despite occasional influxes from financing activities, the company's ability to sustain its cash burn rate is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains poor, highlighting inefficiencies in cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.58M	7.14M	20.97M	41.87M	23.03M	135.08M
Gross Profit	6.42M	6.33M	14.54M	34.35M	21.47M	0.00
EBITDA	-26.76M	-62.60M	-117.65M	-83.80M	-86.89M	8.73M
Net Income	-20.89M	-70.87M	-118.51M	-85.47M	-88.44M	8.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	43.75M	43.83M	27.00M	45.10M	247.06M	271.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.99M	37.90M	22.92M	43.74M	167.03M	180.93M
Total Debt	254.00K	44.45M	368.00K	2.37M	3.67M	5.28M
Total Liabilities	10.82M	48.42M	89.06M	90.15M	19.53M	22.16M
Stockholders Equity	32.93M	-4.59M	-62.06M	-45.05M	227.52M	249.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.58M	-61.96M	-21.04M	-17.92M	-60.13M	-5.84M
Operating Cash Flow	-31.58M	-60.92M	-21.04M	-17.87M	-60.09M	-5.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.93M	48.74M	22.47M	-22.00M	-4.75M	-20.27M
Financing Cash Flow	20.71M	-3.60M	2.00K	4.00K	46.61M	39.14M

Tvardi Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TVRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.33, below the 50-day MA of 4.20, and below the 200-day MA of 18.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TVRD.

Tvardi Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
TVRD	46 Neutral	$36.21M	-0.39	-97.61%	―	-53.67%	86.75%
CUE	42 Neutral	$28.21M	-0.68	-195.19%	―	-25.51%	49.72%
ALGS	42 Neutral	$43.51M	-0.36	-141.82%	―	-55.88%	6.14%
PSTV	40 Underperform	$43.18M	-0.13	―	―	-8.16%	22.44%

Tvardi Therapeutics Corporate Events

Tvardi Therapeutics updates STAT3 fibrosis-focused clinical pipeline

In January 2026, Tvardi Therapeutics provided an overview of its clinical pipeline and recent progress in targeting STAT3 for fibrosis-driven diseases, highlighting TTI-101 and TTI-109 as key assets. The company reported that topline data from the REVERTIPF Phase 2 trial of TTI-101 in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, released on October 13, 2025, showed overlapping changes in forced vital capacity between treatment and placebo groups, with placebo performance exceeding historical expectations and high variability across cohorts, while treatment-emergent adverse events led to early discontinuations and fewer patients evaluable at 12 weeks. Tvardi also outlined upcoming milestones, including additional IPF data reported in January 2026 and planned Phase 1b/2 topline data in hepatocellular carcinoma and Phase 1 healthy volunteer data for TTI-109 in the first half of 2026, underscoring both the scientific rationale for STAT3 inhibition and the operational execution challenges in advancing its clinical programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (TVRD) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tvardi Therapeutics stock, see the TVRD Stock Forecast page.

Tvardi Therapeutics Advances STAT3 Inhibitor Clinical Trials

Tvardi Therapeutics announced significant progress in its clinical trials, particularly with its STAT3 inhibitor, TTI-101, which has shown promising results in reducing inflammation, fibrosis, and tumor growth in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) models. The company is also conducting ongoing Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials, with anticipated data releases in the first half of 2026, potentially impacting the treatment landscape for fibrosis-driven diseases and HCC.

The most recent analyst rating on (TVRD) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tvardi Therapeutics stock, see the TVRD Stock Forecast page.