Spin Master (TOY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.29B
• Dividend Yield: 2.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 168.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: 21.26%
• EPS Growth: 99.49%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 32,700,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 93,746
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 168,890
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$27.33
• Price Target Upside: 20.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: C$24.50 ▲(8.31% Upside)

Spin Master's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its stable financial position and moderate valuation. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability, along with a bearish technical outlook, weigh on the score. The neutral sentiment from the earnings call reflects a balanced view of the company's strengths and challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Spin Master reported better-than-expected earnings results with revenue and adjusted EBITDA surpassing forecasts.

Licensing Partnerships

Spin Master has extended its Gabby's Dollhouse license with Dreamworks, signaling a continued partnership that could enhance product offerings and brand visibility.

Toy Segment Growth

Revenue in the Toy segment grew 21% year-over-year, driven by higher sales volumes of licensed brands.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Spin Master reported Q2/25 results which were materially below consensus estimates, with a higher than expected loss due to increased selling and marketing expenses.

Industry Tariffs

The toy industry is facing challenges with tariffs, and these tariffs are putting pressure on the profitability of toy companies, including Spin Master.

Retailer Inventory Management

Management pointed to a gloomy outlook due to retailers de-stocking inventory and sourcing domestically, which delays revenue recognition.

Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, creates, designs, manufactures, licenses, and markets various toys, entertainment franchises, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. Its product categories include activities, games and puzzles, and plush; preschool, dolls, and interactive; wheels and action; and outdoor. The company offers its products under the PAW Patrol, Bakugan, Kinetic Sand, Air Hogs, Hatchimals, Rubik's Cube, GUND, Toca Boca, Sago Mini, Etch A Sketch, Meccano, and Orbeez brands. It also produced television, video-on-demand, subscription video-on-demand, and movies. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Spin Master generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily driven by its toy segment, which includes the development, manufacturing, and sale of toys and games across various categories. A significant portion of its income is derived from the sale of physical products through retailers worldwide. Additionally, Spin Master capitalizes on its entertainment segment by developing and distributing animated content related to its toy brands, which creates synergies and boosts toy sales. The digital games segment also contributes to revenue through mobile and online gaming platforms, leveraging popular IPs to engage users. Strategic partnerships and licensing agreements further enhance revenue, allowing Spin Master to expand its brand presence and monetize its intellectual properties across multiple platforms.

Spin Master Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Spin Master demonstrates a stable financial position with efficient cost management and moderate leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, with declining net profit margins and negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Spin Master shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has a solid gross profit margin of 54.02% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined to 3.93% TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Revenue growth is negative at -0.49% TTM, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, but the declining revenue growth and net profit margin are areas of concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is 6.54% TTM, which is lower than previous years, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet is stable, but the declining ROE is a point to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, which is negative at -5.30% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.39 TTM, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58 TTM, showing a decent conversion of earnings to cash. While cash flow generation is adequate, the negative growth in free cash flow is concerning.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.29B	2.26B	1.90B	2.02B	2.04B	1.57B
Gross Profit	1.24B	1.19B	1.04B	1.10B	1.06B	727.90M
EBITDA	298.90M	295.70M	336.40M	373.30M	379.90M	150.50M
Net Income	90.20M	81.90M	151.40M	261.30M	198.60M	45.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.52B	2.63B	1.99B	1.79B	1.74B	1.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	119.70M	225.80M	705.70M	644.30M	562.70M	320.60M
Total Debt	531.50M	534.40M	62.10M	71.20M	73.00M	74.40M
Total Liabilities	1.18B	1.23B	570.60M	550.00M	684.30M	499.20M
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.40B	1.42B	1.24B	1.05B	842.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	189.60M	210.40M	119.60M	149.90M	339.60M	229.70M
Operating Cash Flow	329.20M	328.00M	227.00M	249.30M	419.10M	310.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-140.40M	-1.07B	-135.30M	-109.20M	-153.20M	-84.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-212.50M	270.20M	-44.10M	-20.30M	-18.30M	-16.30M

Spin Master Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 22.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.73, below the 50-day MA of 23.56, and below the 200-day MA of 26.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TOY.

Spin Master Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOY	62 Neutral	C$2.29B	19.38	6.75%	2.12%	21.26%	99.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.97B	12.87	-5.29%	2.97%	1.26%	-14.45%
LIMAF	―	$3.33B	22.14	3.61%	1.38%	―	―
DOOO	―	$4.77B	18.62	38.70%	0.93%	―	―
PET	72 Outperform	C$2.61B	27.99	126.66%	1.21%	5.18%	17.66%
WPK	71 Outperform	C$2.56B	13.36	10.79%	7.67%	4.69%	4.54%
RCH	66 Neutral	C$2.01B	24.18	9.00%	1.65%	5.38%	-13.14%

Spin Master Corporate Events

Spin Master Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results Amid Revenue Challenges

Spin Master reported a 2.7% decrease in Q2 2025 revenue, primarily due to a decline in Toy Revenue, though this was partially offset by strong growth in the Digital Games segment. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Spin Master maintained market share in its Toy segment and continued to grow its Digital Games, driven by its Toca Boca World and Piknik platforms. The company achieved cost synergies from the Melissa & Doug acquisition and made progress on its tariff mitigation plan, positioning itself to navigate economic uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master Adjusts Timing for Q2 2025 Earnings Call

Spin Master Corp. has announced a time change for its second quarter 2025 earnings call, which will now take place on July 31, 2025, at 9:30 a.m. ET. The company will release its financial results earlier that day, with key executives hosting the call for the investment community. This adjustment in schedule may impact stakeholders who rely on timely financial disclosures for decision-making.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results

Spin Master Corp. has announced that it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 31, 2025. The announcement includes a scheduled conference call for the investment community, hosted by CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master Announces New CEO, Christina Miller, to Lead Next Growth Phase

Spin Master Corp. has announced a leadership transition with Christina Miller, a seasoned executive with over 25 years of experience in media and entertainment, being appointed as the new CEO effective July 7, 2025. This change follows a succession planning process and aims to leverage Miller’s expertise to further the company’s legacy of creativity and innovation, positioning Spin Master for continued growth and success in the children’s entertainment industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.