Spin Master (TSE:TOY)
TSX:TOY
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Spin Master
(TSX:TOY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$19.50
▲(5.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven mainly by solid cash generation and strong recent revenue growth, partially offset by a sharp swing to a net loss and weakened returns. Technicals are meaningfully negative with the stock trading below major moving averages and weak momentum indicators. Valuation is mixed (reasonable yield, but a negative P/E reflects loss-making performance), while the latest call suggested cautious improvement in 2026 but with significant near-term volatility and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained OCF and FCF provide durable liquidity and financing optionality. Strong cash generation supports the dividend, buybacks, M&A and working-capital needs through seasonal cycles, giving the company flexibility to invest in growth and absorb near-term earnings volatility.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
A swing to a net loss and negative ROE signals impaired earnings power and compressed operating leverage. Even with revenue gains, underlying profitability has weakened, pressuring ability to sustain shareholder returns and requiring structural cost or mix improvements to restore durable margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained OCF and FCF provide durable liquidity and financing optionality. Strong cash generation supports the dividend, buybacks, M&A and working-capital needs through seasonal cycles, giving the company flexibility to invest in growth and absorb near-term earnings volatility.
Read all positive factors
Spin Master (TOY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.86B
Dividend Yield2.4%
Average Volume (3M)154.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth3.71%
EPS Growth80.35%
CountryCA
Employees3,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding32,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume148,895
30 Day Avg. Volume154,246
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio5.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$23.17Price Target Upside25.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.18B
Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, creates, designs, manufactures, licenses, and markets various toys, entertainment franchises, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. Its product categories include ac...
How the Company Makes Money
Spin Master generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its toy and game products to retailers and distributors around the globe. The company has a robust presence in both traditional retail and e-commerce channels, allowing i...
Spin Master Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: clear operational and financial strengths (strong digital profitability, entertainment engagement, solid cash generation, inventory reductions, and strategic product wins) and a constructive 2026 plan with conservative but positive guidance, yet material near-term headwinds remain (tariff-driven toy demand disruption, a significant goodwill impairment at Melissa & Doug, amortization pressure in Entertainment, Q1 EBITDA weakness and freight/geopolitical risk). Highlights and lowlights are roughly balanced — management is optimistic about recovery and long-term growth but acknowledges short-term volatility and risks.Positive Updates
Digital Games Revenue and Profitability Growth
Digital Games revenue increased 16% in 2025 with adjusted operating income up 24%, driven by Toca Boca and Piknik improvements, increased partnership revenue, higher ARPU and better retention; management also referenced 'more than 20%' growth in digital in commentary.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Driven Toy Sales Decline
Toy gross product sales declined 8% for full-year 2025 (management attributed this to an approximately 12% reduction in retailer inventory levels and disrupted retail order timing tied to tariffs), with expectations of a significant year-over-year Toy decline in Q1 2026 and a double-digit consolidated decrease in Q1.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Digital Games Revenue and Profitability Growth
Digital Games revenue increased 16% in 2025 with adjusted operating income up 24%, driven by Toca Boca and Piknik improvements, increased partnership revenue, higher ARPU and better retention; management also referenced 'more than 20%' growth in digital in commentary.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Spin Master guided 2026 to stable-to-low single‑digit revenue growth and mid‑to‑upper single‑digit adjusted EBITDA growth — implying roughly 50–100 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion — with seasonality skewed heavily to H2 (more than 85% of full‑year adjusted EBITDA), Q1 expected to produce negligible EBITDA and a double‑digit consolidated YoY decline driven by Toys; Toys are expected to be split ~30/70 H1/H2 (Q1 a low‑double‑digit YoY decline, Q2 high‑teens YoY), Entertainment to see healthy growth (including ~ $20M of PAW Patrol distribution revenue recognized in Q3), Digital Games modest growth, and company‑level headwinds including a ~ $22M increase in depreciation & amortization in cost of sales (including a $12M entertainment amortization hit in Q1) with total D&A around $160M; cashflow and capital guidance includes CapEx ≈ $150M (≈ $25M of that for enterprise software), lease payments just under $40M, finance costs similar to 2025, and a balanced capital allocation approach maintaining the dividend, renewing share buybacks and pursuing M&A.Spin Master Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.15B | 2.26B | 1.90B | 2.02B | 2.04B |
| Gross Profit | 1.09B | 1.19B | 1.04B | 1.10B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 328.86M | 279.50M | 302.90M | 334.70M | 325.60M |
| Net Income | -151.10M | 81.90M | 151.40M | 261.30M | 198.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.40B | 2.63B | 1.99B | 1.81B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 104.41M | 233.50M | 705.70M | 644.30M | 562.70M |
| Total Debt | 457.97M | 534.40M | 62.10M | 71.20M | 73.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18B | 1.23B | 570.60M | 553.30M | 684.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.22B | 1.40B | 1.42B | 1.25B | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 239.01M | 279.88M | 202.23M | 212.48M | 385.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 311.46M | 312.25M | 230.68M | 241.98M | 410.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -205.23M | -1.02B | -137.80M | -106.05M | -151.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -233.92M | 257.23M | -44.51M | -19.70M | -16.32M |
Spin Master Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.52
Price Trends
18.68
Negative
19.17
Negative
20.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Negative
47.26
Neutral
56.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.99, below the 50-day MA of 18.68, and below the 200-day MA of 20.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TOY.
Spin Master Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$930.33M | 7.28 | 3.64% | 3.51% | 1.38% | -64.10% | |
62 Neutral | C$891.86M | 16.42 | 27.32% | 5.07% | -2.54% | -10.57% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$1.86B | -9.31 | -11.45% | 2.40% | 3.71% | 80.35% | |
55 Neutral | C$10.30B | 16.32 | 13.16% | 3.17% | -0.13% | 13.73% | |
53 Neutral | C$7.55B | 25.78 | 54.95% | 0.86% | -5.14% | -87.15% | |
43 Neutral | C$60.02M | -0.24 | 3926.21% | ― | -9.30% | -89.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:TOY
Spin Master
18.52
-4.32
-18.92%
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Spin Master Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Spin Master Swings to Q4 Loss on Impairment but Targets Modest Growth in 2026
Negative
Mar 5, 2026
Spin Master reported a challenging fourth quarter of 2025 as revenue fell 4.8% to $618.2 million and it swung to a net loss of $184.3 million, driven largely by $229.1 million in non‑cash goodwill and intangible asset impairments. Despite so...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Spin Master Sets March 5 Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Call
Neutral
Jan 13, 2026
Spin Master announced it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026, before markets open, followed by an investor conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time hosted by CEO Christina Miller and C...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.