Spin Master (TOY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.04B
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 154.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 80.35%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 1.54
• Shares Outstanding: 32,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 148,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 154,246
• PEG Ratio: -0.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$28.20
• Price Target Upside: 39.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$22.50 ▲(11.44% Upside)

Spin Master shows solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and operational efficiency. The earnings call highlighted strategic initiatives and market share gains, though challenges in toy sales and valuation concerns persist. Technical analysis indicates mixed signals with short-term bullish momentum but longer-term bearish trends.

Positive Factors

Market Share Growth

Expanding market share in key categories like Preschool and Plush indicates strong brand positioning and resilience against industry declines.

Supply Chain Diversification

Diversifying supply chain reduces geopolitical risks and enhances resilience, potentially lowering costs and improving operational stability.

Digital Games Growth

Growth in digital games, with improved monetization, diversifies revenue streams and capitalizes on digital trends, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Decline in Toy Sales

A significant decline in toy sales due to retailer behavior and tariffs could impact revenue stability and necessitate strategic adjustments.

Challenges with Melissa & Doug

Tariff impacts and competition affecting Melissa & Doug highlight vulnerabilities in certain product lines, potentially impacting profitability.

Unpredictable Holiday Season

An unpredictable holiday season could lead to volatile sales, affecting inventory management and revenue forecasting for the period.

Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, creates, designs, manufactures, licenses, and markets various toys, entertainment franchises, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. Its product categories include activities, games and puzzles, and plush; preschool, dolls, and interactive; wheels and action; and outdoor. The company offers its products under the PAW Patrol, Bakugan, Kinetic Sand, Air Hogs, Hatchimals, Rubik's Cube, GUND, Toca Boca, Sago Mini, Etch A Sketch, Meccano, and Orbeez brands. It also produced television, video-on-demand, subscription video-on-demand, and movies. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Spin Master generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its toy and game products to retailers and distributors around the globe. The company has a robust presence in both traditional retail and e-commerce channels, allowing it to capitalize on a wide range of market opportunities. In addition to product sales, Spin Master earns revenue from licensing agreements, where it licenses its intellectual property for use in other media such as television shows and films. Significant partnerships, including collaborations with major entertainment networks for animated series based on its toy lines, further contribute to its earnings by promoting brand awareness and driving merchandise sales. The company's ability to innovate and create engaging content around its products also plays a crucial role in attracting consumers and sustaining revenue growth.

Spin Master Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Spin Master demonstrates a stable financial position with efficient cost management and moderate leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, as reflected in declining net profit margins and negative free cash flow growth. While the balance sheet remains strong, the company needs to address its revenue and profit growth to enhance overall financial performance.

Income Statement

Spin Master shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has a solid gross profit margin of 54.02% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined to 3.93% TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Revenue growth is negative at -0.49% TTM, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, but the declining revenue growth and net profit margin are areas of concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is 6.54% TTM, which is lower than previous years, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet is stable, but the declining ROE is a point to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, which is negative at -5.30% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.39 TTM, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58 TTM, showing a decent conversion of earnings to cash. While cash flow generation is adequate, the negative growth in free cash flow is concerning.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.42B	2.26B	1.90B	2.02B	2.04B	1.57B
Gross Profit	1.31B	1.19B	1.04B	1.10B	1.06B	727.90M
EBITDA	347.16M	279.50M	302.90M	334.70M	325.60M	107.90M
Net Income	97.20M	81.90M	151.40M	261.30M	198.60M	45.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.84B	2.63B	1.99B	1.81B	1.74B	1.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	177.96M	233.50M	705.70M	644.30M	562.70M	320.60M
Total Debt	786.28M	534.40M	62.10M	71.20M	73.00M	74.40M
Total Liabilities	1.87B	1.23B	570.60M	553.30M	684.30M	499.20M
Stockholders Equity	1.98B	1.40B	1.42B	1.25B	1.05B	842.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	282.36M	279.88M	202.23M	212.48M	385.02M	304.50M
Operating Cash Flow	332.89M	312.25M	230.68M	241.98M	410.98M	326.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-176.46M	-1.02B	-137.80M	-106.05M	-151.22M	-89.21M
Financing Cash Flow	-144.15M	257.23M	-44.51M	-19.70M	-16.32M	-17.13M

Spin Master Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 20.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.99, above the 50-day MA of 20.00, and below the 200-day MA of 21.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TOY.

Spin Master Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTY	68 Neutral	$917.99M	28.14	3.64%	3.51%	1.38%	-64.10%
TOY	68 Neutral	C$2.04B	26.29	6.75%	2.40%	3.71%	80.35%
CTC	64 Neutral	C$9.48B	15.76	13.16%	3.17%	-0.13%	13.73%
AW	62 Neutral	C$921.63M	32.69	57.97%	5.07%	-2.54%	-10.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DOO	59 Neutral	$7.27B	298.43	45.71%	0.86%	-5.14%	-87.15%
DII.B	42 Neutral	C$57.92M	-0.22	-683.97%	―	-9.30%	-89.41%

Spin Master Corporate Events

Spin Master to Engage with Investors at Morgan Stanley Conference

Spin Master Corp. announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on December 2, 2025, in New York City, where CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter will engage with institutional investors. This participation underscores Spin Master’s strategic efforts to strengthen its investor relations and market presence, potentially impacting its operations and positioning within the children’s entertainment industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master Faces Q3 Revenue Decline Amid Toy Sales Drop

Spin Master reported a decline in its Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue decreasing by 17% to $734.7 million, primarily due to a drop in toy sales amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment and shifting retailer buying behaviors. Despite the challenges, the company saw strong performance in its digital games segment and remains optimistic about future growth, supported by strategic investments and a robust lineup for the holiday season.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.