Spin Master (TOY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.88B
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 154.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 80.35%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 32,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 148,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 154,246
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$23.17
• Price Target Upside: 23.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.18B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: C$19.50 ▲(4.33% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is driven mainly by solid cash generation and strong recent revenue growth, partially offset by a sharp swing to a net loss and weakened returns. Technicals are meaningfully negative with the stock trading below major moving averages and weak momentum indicators. Valuation is mixed (reasonable yield, but a negative P/E reflects loss-making performance), while the latest call suggested cautious improvement in 2026 but with significant near-term volatility and cost headwinds.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained OCF and FCF provide durable liquidity and financing optionality. Strong cash generation supports the dividend, buybacks, M&A and working-capital needs through seasonal cycles, giving the company flexibility to invest in growth and absorb near-term earnings volatility.

Owned IP & content monetization

High streaming engagement and contractual distribution demonstrate the franchise's ability to drive recurring, non-product revenue. Owning scalable IP creates multi-year licensing, content and merchandising levers that smooth toy seasonality and strengthen long-term brand value.

Digital games growth & profitability

Faster-growing, higher-margin digital revenues diversify the company's mix away from seasonal physical toys. Improved ARPU, retention and partnership income enhance recurring cashflows and reduce reliance on volatile retail cycles, supporting margin durability over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Profitability deterioration

A swing to a net loss and negative ROE signals impaired earnings power and compressed operating leverage. Even with revenue gains, underlying profitability has weakened, pressuring ability to sustain shareholder returns and requiring structural cost or mix improvements to restore durable margins.

Melissa & Doug goodwill impairment

A goodwill write-down on an acquired brand indicates persistent market or integration issues and reduces booked asset quality. This suggests the acquisition hasn't delivered expected returns and may require further investment or restructuring, weighing on long-term ROIC and confidence in M&A execution.

Higher D&A and elevated capex

Material increases in depreciation/amortization and sustained capex raise the company's fixed cost base, pressuring margins and free cash flow conversion. Higher recurring amortization from content and IT investments can persistently depress reported profitability even if revenue recovers.

Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, creates, designs, manufactures, licenses, and markets various toys, entertainment franchises, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. Its product categories include activities, games and puzzles, and plush; preschool, dolls, and interactive; wheels and action; and outdoor. The company offers its products under the PAW Patrol, Bakugan, Kinetic Sand, Air Hogs, Hatchimals, Rubik's Cube, GUND, Toca Boca, Sago Mini, Etch A Sketch, Meccano, and Orbeez brands. It also produced television, video-on-demand, subscription video-on-demand, and movies. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Spin Master generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its toy and game products to retailers and distributors around the globe. The company has a robust presence in both traditional retail and e-commerce channels, allowing it to capitalize on a wide range of market opportunities. In addition to product sales, Spin Master earns revenue from licensing agreements, where it licenses its intellectual property for use in other media such as television shows and films. Significant partnerships, including collaborations with major entertainment networks for animated series based on its toy lines, further contribute to its earnings by promoting brand awareness and driving merchandise sales. The company's ability to innovate and create engaging content around its products also plays a crucial role in attracting consumers and sustaining revenue growth.

Spin Master Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue surged in 2025 (+71.5% YoY) and cash generation remained strong (operating cash flow ~$311M; free cash flow ~$239M). However, profitability deteriorated sharply (net margin to -7.0% with a net loss) and returns weakened (negative ROE), while leverage is moderate but higher than earlier years.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (+71.5% YoY) after a solid 2024 (+18.8%), but profitability deteriorated materially: net margin fell from +3.6% (2024) to -7.0% (2025) with a net loss. While gross margin remained healthy (~50.9% in 2025), operating profitability has compressed versus 2021–2023 levels, indicating higher costs and/or weaker operating leverage despite the top-line surge.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity at ~0.37 in 2025 (similar to 2024), but this is a step-up versus the very low leverage profile seen in 2021–2023. Equity remains sizable (~$1.22B in 2025), supporting balance sheet resilience, though returns weakened sharply as 2025 produced a negative return on equity, reflecting the earnings downturn.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a clear strength: operating cash flow was ~$311M in 2025 and free cash flow was ~$239M, staying solid even in a net-loss year. However, free cash flow declined versus 2024 (negative growth), and cash flow conversion vs accounting earnings looks weaker than prior years, suggesting working-capital or one-time dynamics helped sustain cash while profitability fell.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.15B	2.26B	1.90B	2.02B	2.04B
Gross Profit	1.09B	1.19B	1.04B	1.10B	1.06B
EBITDA	328.86M	279.50M	302.90M	334.70M	325.60M
Net Income	-151.10M	81.90M	151.40M	261.30M	198.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.63B	1.99B	1.81B	1.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	104.41M	233.50M	705.70M	644.30M	562.70M
Total Debt	457.97M	534.40M	62.10M	71.20M	73.00M
Total Liabilities	1.18B	1.23B	570.60M	553.30M	684.30M
Stockholders Equity	1.22B	1.40B	1.42B	1.25B	1.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	239.01M	279.88M	202.23M	212.48M	385.02M
Operating Cash Flow	311.46M	312.25M	230.68M	241.98M	410.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-205.23M	-1.02B	-137.80M	-106.05M	-151.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-233.92M	257.23M	-44.51M	-19.70M	-16.32M

Spin Master Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.12, below the 50-day MA of 19.30, and below the 200-day MA of 21.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TOY.

Spin Master Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTY	72 Outperform	C$897.44M	7.28	3.64%	3.51%	1.38%	-64.10%
AW	62 Neutral	C$865.93M	16.42	27.32%	5.07%	-2.54%	-10.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TOY	60 Neutral	C$1.88B	-9.31	-11.45%	2.40%	3.71%	80.35%
CTC	55 Neutral	C$10.13B	16.32	13.16%	3.17%	-0.13%	13.73%
DOO	48 Neutral	C$6.44B	23.28	5.55%	0.86%	-5.14%	-87.15%
DII.B	43 Neutral	C$63.96M	-0.24	3926.21%	―	-9.30%	-89.41%

Spin Master Corporate Events

Spin Master Swings to Q4 Loss on Impairment but Targets Modest Growth in 2026

Spin Master reported a challenging fourth quarter of 2025 as revenue fell 4.8% to $618.2 million and it swung to a net loss of $184.3 million, driven largely by $229.1 million in non‑cash goodwill and intangible asset impairments. Despite softer sales and lower free cash flow, underlying profitability remained relatively resilient, with adjusted EBITDA down only slightly and margin improving, while strong operating cash flow supported continued investment in technology, supply chain diversification, toy innovation, entertainment content and digital platforms.

The company also maintained shareholder returns, repurchasing shares under its normal course issuer bid, declaring a quarterly dividend and signaling confidence in its balance sheet and leverage. Looking to 2026, Spin Master projects stable to low single‑digit revenue growth and mid to high single‑digit adjusted EBITDA growth, suggesting a focus on a return to sustainable expansion through innovation in its core toy portfolio, digital platforms and expanded collaboration across creative centers.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Hold with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master Sets March 5 Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Call

Spin Master announced it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026, before markets open, followed by an investor conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time hosted by CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter. The scheduled results event underscores the company’s ongoing investor engagement and transparency efforts, giving analysts and shareholders a set time frame to assess Spin Master’s recent financial performance and strategic progress across its toys, entertainment and digital games businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.