True NthCommercial (TNT.UN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$131.68M
• Dividend Yield: 7.32%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: -4.04%
• EPS Growth: 33.21%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: REIT - Office
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 13,979,205
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,310
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,190
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$10.75
• Price Target Upside: 14.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: C$9.50 ▲(0.85%Upside)

The overall score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. Technical analysis further reflects a bearish trend, while valuation concerns stem from a negative P/E ratio despite a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Successful progress on refinancing debt maturities, with recent financings completed at rates under 5.0%, reducing the anticipated impact of debt refinancing.

Distribution

Distribution reinstated at an annual rate of $0.69 per unit, equating to a yield of 6.8%.

Financial Performance

Positive leasing spreads mitigate drop in occupancy.

Negative Factors

Interest Expense

Office property fundamentals remain challenging and refinancing debt at higher interest rates will likely lead to greater interest expense.

Market Valuation

True North currently trades at a 13.2% premium to our NAV estimate, compared to its Canadian office REIT peers, which trade at a 13.3% discount to NAV.

Occupancy

Same-property NOI dropped 9.6% in Alberta due to a significant decrease in occupancy from a tenant downsizing space.

True NthCommercial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The REIT is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust established under the laws of the Province of Ontario. The REIT currently owns and operates a portfolio of 48 commercial properties consisting of approximately 4.8 million square feet in urban and select strategic secondary markets across Canada focusing on long term leases with government and credit rated tenants. The REIT is focused on growing its portfolio principally through acquisitions across Canada and such other jurisdictions where opportunities exist.

How the Company Makes Money

True NthCommercial makes money through the acquisition, leasing, and management of commercial real estate properties. The company's primary revenue stream comes from rental income generated by leasing office spaces, industrial facilities, and retail locations to various tenants. Additionally, True NthCommercial may engage in strategic property sales when market conditions are favorable, which can provide capital gains. The company might also benefit from partnerships or joint ventures with other real estate investors and developers, enhancing its ability to acquire high-quality assets and optimize property management. Furthermore, True NthCommercial may increase its earnings through property development and redevelopment projects, which can lead to higher rental rates and property values.

True NthCommercial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

True NthCommercial faces financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability issues. The high leverage indicated by the debt-to-equity ratio poses financial risks, although stable operating cash flow provides some stability.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross profit margin is deteriorating, and the net profit margin is negative, indicating losses over the recent periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been volatile with negative figures recently, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which poses a financial risk. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting some level of balance in asset financing. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting a lack of profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows stable operating cash flow, but free cash flow growth has been inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high due to negative net income, suggesting cash generation is better than reported earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio also indicates reliance on cash flow rather than profitability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
126.91M	132.20M	143.57M	138.52M	139.43M
	Gross Profit
65.82M	72.55M	86.48M	82.63M	83.74M
	EBIT
59.99M	66.91M	80.43M	68.92M	78.30M
	EBITDA
10.86M	-7.80M	81.87M	78.35M	78.30M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-20.95M	-40.62M	-18.51M	29.14M	10.55M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.33M	8.95M	9.50M	5.48M	24.58M
	Total Assets
1.24B	1.32B	1.45B	1.42B	1.40B
	Total Debt
767.74M	820.99M	861.09M	820.40M	812.49M
	Net Debt
755.41M	812.05M	851.59M	814.93M	787.91M
	Total Liabilities
824.23M	870.87M	928.18M	881.11M	879.67M
	Stockholders Equity
416.00M	452.80M	522.14M	540.07M	525.21M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
75.67M	73.94M	103.27M	86.69M	91.38M
	Operating Cash Flow
75.67M	73.94M	103.27M	77.31M	91.38M
	Investing Cash Flow
29.57M	32.45M	-72.80M	-31.74M	-19.39M
	Financing Cash Flow
-101.85M	-106.94M	-26.45M	-64.68M	-53.08M

True NthCommercial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TNT.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.05, above the 50-day MA of 9.08, and below the 200-day MA of 10.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TNT.UN.

True NthCommercial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.83B	10.72	0.40%	6.10%	5.80%	-21.26%
TNT.UN	57 Neutral	C$131.68M	―	-5.89%	7.32%	-4.04%	33.21%
MR.UN	56 Neutral	$71.17M	―	-16.65%	0.73%	-2.12%	-287.56%
INO.UN	54 Neutral	C$32.26M	―	-25.21%	7.55%	-22.78%	-19.14%
RPR.UN	53 Neutral	C$33.05M	―	-162.05%	1.79%	0.66%	-178.71%
DRETF		$222.52M	―	-13.41%	6.18%	―	―
APYRF		$1.73B	―	-7.48%	10.56%	―	―