True NthCommercial (TNT.UN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$129.03M
• Dividend Yield: 3.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: -4.04%
• EPS Growth: 33.21%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: REIT - Office
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 13,979,205
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,300
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,207
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$10.25
• Price Target Upside: 9.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: C$9.50 ▲(1.06% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including declining revenue and profitability, and high leverage. Technical analysis provides a neutral outlook, while valuation is negatively impacted by ongoing losses. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Debt Refinancing

Successful progress on refinancing debt maturities, with recent financings completed at rates under 5.0%, reducing the anticipated impact of debt refinancing.

Distribution

Distribution reinstated at an annual rate of $0.69 per unit, equating to a yield of 6.8%.

Occupancy

Improvement in occupancy is encouraging, with same-property NOI rising 0.8%.

Negative Factors

Earnings

For the full year 2024, FFO per unit was $2.42, down 4.0% year-over-year.

NAV Comparison

True North currently trades at a 13.2% premium to our NAV estimate, compared to its Canadian office REIT peers, which trade at a 13.3% discount to NAV.

Office Property Fundamentals

Office property fundamentals remain challenging and refinancing debt at higher interest rates will likely lead to greater interest expense.

True NthCommercial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The REIT is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust established under the laws of the Province of Ontario. The REIT currently owns and operates a portfolio of 48 commercial properties consisting of approximately 4.8 million square feet in urban and select strategic secondary markets across Canada focusing on long term leases with government and credit rated tenants. The REIT is focused on growing its portfolio principally through acquisitions across Canada and such other jurisdictions where opportunities exist.

How the Company Makes Money

True Nth Commercial generates revenue primarily through leasing income derived from its portfolio of properties. The company enters into long-term leases with tenants, which provide a consistent cash flow. Additionally, TNT.UN may earn revenue through property management fees, maintenance services, and potential profit-sharing agreements with tenants. Strategic partnerships with local and national firms enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall earnings. The company also benefits from capital appreciation of its properties, which can lead to increased asset value and, consequently, higher returns for its investors.

True NthCommercial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

True NthCommercial faces financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability issues. The company has a high-debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, and negative net profit margins. However, cash flows remain relatively stable, which somewhat offsets the financial risks.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross profit margin is deteriorating, and the net profit margin is negative, indicating losses over the recent periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been volatile with negative figures recently, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which poses a financial risk. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting some level of balance in asset financing. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting a lack of profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows stable operating cash flow, but free cash flow growth has been inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high due to negative net income, suggesting cash generation is better than reported earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio also indicates reliance on cash flow rather than profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	126.91M	132.20M	143.57M	138.52M	139.43M
Gross Profit	65.82M	72.55M	86.48M	82.63M	83.74M
EBITDA	10.86M	-7.80M	81.87M	78.35M	78.30M
Net Income	-20.95M	-40.62M	-18.51M	29.14M	10.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.24B	1.32B	1.45B	1.42B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.33M	8.95M	9.50M	5.48M	24.58M
Total Debt	767.74M	820.99M	861.09M	820.40M	812.49M
Total Liabilities	824.23M	870.87M	928.18M	881.11M	879.67M
Stockholders Equity	416.00M	452.80M	522.14M	540.07M	525.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	75.67M	73.94M	103.27M	86.69M	91.38M
Operating Cash Flow	75.67M	73.94M	103.27M	77.31M	91.38M
Investing Cash Flow	29.57M	32.45M	-72.80M	-31.74M	-19.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-101.85M	-106.94M	-26.45M	-64.68M	-53.08M

True NthCommercial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TNT.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.37, above the 50-day MA of 9.24, and below the 200-day MA of 9.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TNT.UN.

True NthCommercial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62 Neutral	AU$2.95B	8.45	2.58%	5.09%	18.21%	47.14%
AP.UN	58 Neutral	$2.41B	―	-9.62%	10.47%	3.06%	-5.77%
TNT.UN	53 Neutral	C$129.03M	―	-5.89%	3.13%	-4.04%	33.21%
RPR.UN	53 Neutral	C$33.91M	―	-162.05%	―	0.66%	-178.71%
D.UN	51 Neutral	$308.83M	―	-13.41%	6.27%	3.69%	-168.76%
INO.UN	50 Neutral	C$30.24M	―	-25.21%	7.55%	-22.78%	-19.14%