TFI International (TFII) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$11.43B
• Dividend Yield: 1.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 218.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -0.25%
• EPS Growth: -28.71%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 26,312
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 82,151,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 218,826
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 218,741
• PEG Ratio: 6.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$172.24
• Price Target Upside: 23.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$7.93B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: C$150.00 ▲(7.81% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is primarily driven by solid but risk-balanced fundamentals: strong revenue/FCF trends are offset by significant margin compression and higher leverage. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend and healthy momentum, while valuation is a key headwind due to a high P/E and modest yield. Earnings call tone was mixed, highlighting capital returns and cash flow but also ongoing segment weakness and subdued conditions.

Positive Factors

Consistent free cash flow

Sustained, sizable free cash flow provides durable capacity to fund debt service, buybacks, dividends and targeted capex without relying on equity. Over 2–6 months this underpins financial flexibility and supports strategic initiatives or cyclical cushioning in transportation demand downturns.

Diversified North American operating portfolio

A multi-segment model (truckload, LTL, intermodal, logistics) across cross-border lanes reduces exposure to a single demand shock and leverages scale. This structural diversification improves revenue stability, asset utilization and pricing flexibility over medium-term freight cycles.

U.S. LTL operational improvement

Sustained operational fixes in U.S. LTL — better on-time delivery and fewer missed pickups — can translate to structural margin recovery as network density, pricing power and customer retention improve, strengthening a historically higher-margin segment over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Material increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and interest-rate risk. In a cyclical trucking industry, higher debt limits the company's ability to withstand volume declines or invest opportunistically without pressuring cash returns or raising incremental capital.

Profitability compression

A marked decline in net margin indicates structural pressure from higher costs, mix shifts or integration drag. Lower margin sustainability weakens earnings resilience, reduces return on capital and limits reinvestment capacity, making the franchise more sensitive to modest revenue shocks.

Logistics segment underperformance

Declines in the asset-light logistics segment reduce higher-margin, low-capex growth optionality. Persistent weakness there constrains scalable, capital-efficient revenue growth and raises risk that volume loss or pricing pressure in brokerage/managed services will continue to depress consolidated profitability.

TFI International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TFI International Inc. provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company operates through Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics segments. The Package and Courier segment engages in the pickup, transport, and delivery of items. The LTL segment is involved in the pickup, consolidation, transportation, and delivery of smaller loads. The TL segment offers expedited transportation, flatbed, tank container, and dedicated services, as well as TL brokerage services. This segment carries full loads directly from the customer to the destination using a closed van or specialized equipment. The Logistics segment provides asset-light logistics services, including brokerage, freight forwarding, and transportation management, as well as small package parcel delivery. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 13,384 tractors, 50,091 trailers, and 9,428 independent contractors. The company was formerly known as TransForce Inc. and changed its name to TFI International Inc. in December 2016. TFI International Inc. is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TFI International makes money primarily by charging customers to move freight and manage freight transportation. Its main revenue streams generally map to its operating segments: (1) Truckload: TFII earns revenue by transporting full truckload shipments for shippers under contracted and spot-market pricing. Revenue is driven by miles/loads moved, pricing per mile (or per load), fuel surcharges where applicable, and equipment utilization. Costs include driver wages/benefits, fuel, maintenance, insurance, tolls, and purchased transportation when subcontracted. (2) Less-than-truckload (LTL): TFII earns revenue by consolidating smaller shipments from multiple customers into shared linehaul networks between terminals. Pricing is typically based on shipment weight, freight class/dimensions, distance, accessorials (e.g., liftgate, inside delivery), and fuel surcharges. Profitability depends on network density, terminal efficiency, pickup-and-delivery productivity, and linehaul optimization. (3) Intermodal: TFII earns revenue by moving freight in containers or trailers using a combination of rail linehaul and truck drayage. TFII charges for door-to-door intermodal service and may include fuel and accessorial charges. Earnings depend on volume, rail/trucking balance, equipment positioning, and agreements with rail providers; specific counterparties are not provided here (null). (4) Logistics (brokerage/managed transportation): TFII earns revenue by arranging transportation for customers using third-party carriers rather than its own trucks, typically collecting either a gross margin (customer charge minus carrier pay) in brokerage or management fees for managed transportation/services. This segment is more asset-light, with earnings driven by shipment volumes, spread discipline, and customer retention. Across segments, additional contributors can include accessorial fees, dedicated/contract carriage programs, and fuel surcharge mechanisms that help pass through fuel price changes, though recoverability varies by contract. TFII’s overall earnings are also influenced by fleet/terminal utilization, operating ratio improvements, integration of acquired businesses, and economic freight demand. Specific segment revenue percentages, named partnerships, or contract terms not publicly provided in this prompt are null.

TFI International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 revenue growth and consistently positive free cash flow support the business, but profitability has compressed materially (net margin down to 3.9% in 2025) and leverage has risen (debt-to-equity 1.38), reducing flexibility if freight conditions weaken. Cash conversion also softened versus net income.

Income Statement

Revenue accelerated sharply in 2025 (+37.8% YoY) after a flattish 2024 (+0.0% YoY) and a decline in 2023 (-10.6% YoY), showing strong top-line momentum but some cyclicality. Profitability has compressed over time: net margin fell from 10.4% (2021) to 3.9% (2025), with similar pressure in gross and operating margins, indicating higher costs and/or integration mix impact despite scale. EBITDA margin remains mid-teens (14.7% in 2025), but overall earnings quality has weakened versus earlier years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has become more leveraged: debt-to-equity increased from 0.70 (2022) and 0.90 (2023) to 1.38 (2025), signaling heavier reliance on debt likely tied to growth and acquisitions. Return on equity has trended down materially from ~32% (2021–2022) to 11.8% (2025), reflecting lower profitability and higher equity base. Asset growth is solid (total assets up meaningfully from 2020 to 2025), but the rising leverage reduces financial flexibility if trucking conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving in dollars, with operating cash flow rising to ~1.37B and free cash flow to ~0.98B in 2025 (free cash flow growth +42.7% YoY). However, cash conversion weakened: operating cash flow was below net income in 2025 (about 0.85x), and free cash flow was ~72% of net income, suggesting working-capital or integration-related drag. Still, free cash flow has been consistently positive across all years provided, which supports debt service and reinvestment capacity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.02B	7.99B	7.64B	8.55B	7.10B
Gross Profit	1.35B	1.09B	1.18B	1.38B	1.01B
EBITDA	1.62B	1.25B	1.23B	1.53B	1.35B
Net Income	433.93M	402.20M	513.06M	798.73M	741.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.29B	7.14B	6.27B	5.56B	5.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	288.11M	0.00	334.75M	148.45M	19.13M
Total Debt	5.07B	2.98B	2.34B	1.74B	2.02B
Total Liabilities	6.62B	4.47B	3.68B	3.07B	3.54B
Stockholders Equity	3.67B	2.67B	2.59B	2.49B	2.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	984.48M	637.67M	662.85M	602.34M	576.84M
Operating Cash Flow	1.37B	1.01B	1.03B	942.73M	840.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-505.65M	-1.18B	-810.26M	216.77M	-1.14B
Financing Cash Flow	-562.41M	-156.54M	-28.52M	-1.04B	316.89M

TFI International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 139.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 139.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.84, below the 50-day MA of 155.80, and above the 200-day MA of 133.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TFII.

TFI International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EIF	72 Outperform	C$5.68B	25.57	10.61%	3.13%	15.47%	9.40%
WJX	66 Neutral	C$712.04M	10.32	10.91%	5.09%	3.71%	-12.70%
TFII	65 Neutral	C$11.43B	27.16	11.65%	1.75%	-0.25%	-28.71%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MTL	61 Neutral	C$1.56B	15.25	9.33%	5.21%	5.53%	-21.87%
SES	59 Neutral	C$4.53B	31.34	11.37%	2.27%	-1.47%	-79.68%
CJT	59 Neutral	C$1.31B	16.01	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%

TFI International Corporate Events

TFI International Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Webcast

TFI International Inc. announced it will publish its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 after markets close on February 17, 2026, followed by a webcast the next morning led by Chairman, President and CEO Alain Bédard and CFO David Saperstein to discuss the performance. The scheduled results release and investor webcast underscore the company’s continued emphasis on transparency and engagement with shareholders as it manages its expanding transportation and logistics platform across North America.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFII) stock is a Hold with a C$113.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TFI International stock, see the TSE:TFII Stock Forecast page.

TFI International Accelerates Data Center and Grid Logistics, Appoints New SFI Commercial Chief

TFI International is rapidly expanding its data center and electric grid-related transportation business through its asset-based truckload brand SFI, which operates a fleet of about 8,000 tractors to handle high-value and sensitive cargo for these sectors. In 2025, the company’s Truckload segment generated more than $3 billion in revenue, with data center-related revenue climbing from approximately $8 million in the first quarter to over $15 million in the fourth, totaling $43 million for the year, while broader electric grid-related revenue surpassed $110 million, underscoring strong momentum in these infrastructure-focused markets. To capitalize on this growth, TFI has appointed industry veteran Scott Hoppe as Chief Commercial Officer of SFI, tasking him with leveraging the company’s extensive open deck, tank, logistics, dedicated, bulk, van and heavy haul capabilities to support the multi-year buildout of data centers and associated electric grid projects across the U.S. and Canada, reinforcing TFI’s positioning as a key logistics partner to a fast-growing, strategically important industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFII) stock is a Hold with a C$163.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TFI International stock, see the TSE:TFII Stock Forecast page.