Sienna Senior Living (TSE:SIA)
TSX:SIA
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Sienna Senior Living
(TSX:SIA)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$24.50
â–˛(5.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and a positive earnings outlook, but capped by elevated leverage and weak/volatile free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive on a longer-term basis but neutral near-term, while valuation is held back by a high P/E despite a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue & NOI Growth
Sustained top‑line and NOI gains indicate durable demand and effective pricing/operations across retirement and long‑term care segments. Double‑digit revenue and same‑property NOI expansion support long‑term operating leverage, recurrent cash generation potential, and scalability of recent acquisitions.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage materially above parity increases financial risk and interest sensitivity. High debt relative to equity limits flexibility for protracted development cycles, makes the company vulnerable to cash‑flow dips, and raises the likelihood of future refinancing or equity raises if cash conversion weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & NOI Growth
Sustained top‑line and NOI gains indicate durable demand and effective pricing/operations across retirement and long‑term care segments. Double‑digit revenue and same‑property NOI expansion support long‑term operating leverage, recurrent cash generation potential, and scalability of recent acquisitions.
Read all positive factors
Sienna Senior Living (SIA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.21B
Dividend Yield4.47%
Average Volume (3M)281.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.9
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth16.69%
EPS Growth11.12%
CountryCA
Employees12,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding99,388,200
10 Day Avg. Volume195,427
30 Day Avg. Volume281,430
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-21.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio-43.69
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$26.21Price Target Upside13.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.15B
Sienna Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sienna Senior Living Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides senior living and long-term care (LTC) services in Canada. It operates through Retirement and LTC segments. The company offers a range of seniors' living options, including independent ...
How the Company Makes Money
Sienna primarily makes money by operating seniors’ living communities and collecting recurring resident and care-related revenue. A key revenue stream is resident fees from retirement residences, which typically include monthly rent and service ch...
Sienna Senior Living Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue and NOI growth in key segments, robust FFO/AFFO gains, successful acquisitions/developments and solid liquidity. Operational metrics (occupancy, optimization portfolio performance, team engagement) were highlighted as durable strengths. The principal challenges were typical of a growth phase—timing/scale of development projects, cap-rate compression making acquisitions pricier, higher maintenance capex, and some uncertainty around cash taxes and future supply. Overall, the positives (sizable asset additions, strong organic growth, healthy balance sheet and investor demand) substantially outweigh the manageable risks presented.Positive Updates
Significant Asset Growth
Added over $800 million of assets in 2025, including 10 properties across 3 provinces (nearly 1,800 beds/suites). Q4 acquisitions added $193 million and additional $79 million closed since the start of 2026 (including Bartlett for ~$59.4M).
Negative Updates
Uncertainty on Cash Taxes
Q4 cash taxes were lower than anticipated due to timing of December acquisitions (benefit ~ $2 million from full-year CCA). Management notes cash tax rate for 2026 should be between 2024 and 2025 levels but remains uncertain and dependent on future acquisitions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Asset Growth
Added over $800 million of assets in 2025, including 10 properties across 3 provinces (nearly 1,800 beds/suites). Q4 acquisitions added $193 million and additional $79 million closed since the start of 2026 (including Bartlett for ~$59.4M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Sienna guided 2026 to continued organic growth, forecasting same‑property NOI growth of >10% in Retirement and low‑single‑digit growth in Long‑Term Care, driven by expected rental growth of ~4%, continued care‑revenue gains and occupancy around 95% (Q4 2025 same‑property occupancy 94.7%; January 95.2%; average monthly ≥95% since September); the company plans to sustain heavy acquisition/development activity after adding >$800M of assets and ~1,800 beds/suites in 2025 (Q4 additions $193M; $79M added YTD 2026; Bartlett ~$59.4M), to progress the Glen Rouge Toronto redevelopment (448 beds; ~$250M cost; 7.5–8% development yield; completion ~2030) and to continue optimizing underperforming assets (optimization NOI +22.1% YoY in Q4; occupancy +790 bps YoY; optimization margins ~24% aiming toward same‑property margins). Management reiterated financial flexibility with >$500M liquidity and $1.5B unencumbered assets, recent issuance of $250M unsecured debentures and repayment of $175M, Q4 ATM proceeds of ~ $101M (ATM renewed for $150M), and noted 2025 operating/financial anchors including Q4 revenue +14.2% to $278.4M, Q4 same‑property NOI +10.1% to $47.4M (Retirement +15.4%, LTC +5.6%), 2025 OFFO +27.1% and AFFO +25.7% (per‑share OFFO +5.8%, AFFO +4.7%), Q4 OFFO $34.2M (+24%), Q4 AFFO $27.9M (+19.8%), Q4 AFFO payout 80.7% (vs 83.1% prior), and a record low company turnover of ~19% in 2025.Sienna Senior Living Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.05B | 1.00B | 893.16M | 785.37M | 718.59M | 668.49M |
| Gross Profit | 158.79M | 140.35M | 189.14M | 146.31M | 138.33M | 134.92M |
| EBITDA | 166.69M | 156.58M | 150.27M | 113.00M | 103.25M | 103.46M |
| Net Income | 45.38M | 44.53M | 38.40M | 7.04M | 10.67M | 20.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.69B | 2.54B | 1.86B | 1.70B | 1.68B | 1.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 174.99M | 119.66M | 127.20M | 24.40M | 38.05M | 29.05M |
| Total Debt | 1.43B | 1.43B | 1.01B | 1.01B | 977.96M | 950.28M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.83B | 1.82B | 1.38B | 1.32B | 1.25B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 865.46M | 719.53M | 480.72M | 373.77M | 434.69M | 405.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.69M | -42.86M | 11.89M | 56.21M | 49.64M | 58.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 141.92M | 94.75M | 159.91M | 117.99M | 105.28M | 98.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -532.36M | -484.09M | -126.47M | -75.83M | -135.69M | -18.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 428.27M | 381.80M | 69.35M | -55.81M | 39.41M | -147.09M |
Sienna Senior Living Technical Analysis
Neutral
23.16
Price Trends
22.62
Negative
22.20
Positive
20.40
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.13
Positive
40.49
Neutral
7.03
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.87, above the 50-day MA of 22.62, and above the 200-day MA of 20.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SIA.
Sienna Senior Living Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
22.27
5.19
30.40%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.59
0.82
29.42%
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
34.30
20.31
145.14%
Sienna Senior Living Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Sienna Senior Living Declares April Dividend and Highlights Discounted DRIP
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Sienna Senior Living Inc., a Canadian senior living and long-term care provider listed on the TSX, offers independent and assisted living, memory care under its Aspira brand, long-term care, and specialized programs through a network of about 15,0...
Business Operations and Strategy
Sienna for Seniors Foundation Pledges $1 Million to Launch Healthy Aging Research Centre at Ontario Tech
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
Sienna for Seniors Foundation has donated $1 million to Ontario Tech University to establish the Sienna Senior Living Research Centre for Healthy Aging and Happiness, a hub dedicated to evidence-based research on older adults’ well-being, en...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sienna Senior Living Earns Sixth Consecutive Women Lead Here Recognition Amid Growth Push
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
Sienna Senior Living has been recognized for the sixth consecutive year in The Globe and Mail’s Women Lead Here benchmark, underscoring its leadership in executive gender diversity within Canada’s senior and retirement living sector. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sienna Senior Living Sets Date for Q1 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Apr 2, 2026
Sienna Senior Living Inc. will release its first quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on May 5, 2026, and will follow with a conference call for investors on May 6, 2026, hosted by President and CEO Nitin Jain and CFO and EVP, Invest...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Sienna Senior Living Expands GTA Footprint With $59.4 Million Acquisition of The Bartlett
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Sienna Senior Living has completed the acquisition of The Bartlett, a 129‑suite independent living retirement residence in Oshawa, part of the Greater Toronto Area, for $59.4 million, or about $461,000 per suite. Built in 2021, the property ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Sienna Senior Living Declares March Dividend and Highlights DRIP Incentive
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Sienna Senior Living Inc. has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.078 per common share for March 2026, equivalent to $0.936 per share on an annualized basis, payable on April 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 31. The dividend is de...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Sienna Senior Living Lifts Revenue Above $1 Billion as Expansion Drive Accelerates
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Sienna Senior Living reported 2025 revenue above $1.0 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, with strong gains in same property net operating income and higher retirement segment occupancy, which reached 94.7% in the fourth quarter and rose furth...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Sienna Senior Living Invests $79 Million to Expand Seniors’ Housing Platform
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Sienna Senior Living is expanding its seniors’ housing platform in Ontario and British Columbia through targeted acquisitions that deepen its presence in key markets. The company continues to focus on high-quality independent and long-term c...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Sienna Senior Living Declares February Dividend and Highlights Discounted DRIP
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Sienna Senior Living Inc. has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.078 per common share for February 2026, equivalent to $0.936 per share on an annualized basis, payable on March 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27. The dividend...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.