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Sienna Senior Living
(TSX:SIA)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
C$24.00
▲(3.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—improving earnings and steady revenue growth, but constrained by high leverage and weak free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals add downside risk (below major moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation is balanced by a strong dividend yield but a high P/E multiple.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue model
Resident fees, bundled hospitality services and government-funded long-term care create predictable, recurring revenue with high visibility into occupancy-driven cash flows. This durable model cushions cyclicality and supports multi-month planning, enabling stable revenue sequencing and operational continuity.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt remaining larger than equity and 1.65x leverage limits strategic optionality. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, constrains capital allocation, and heightens sensitivity to slower occupancy or higher funding costs, which can stress liquidity and earnings resilience over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue model
Resident fees, bundled hospitality services and government-funded long-term care create predictable, recurring revenue with high visibility into occupancy-driven cash flows. This durable model cushions cyclicality and supports multi-month planning, enabling stable revenue sequencing and operational continuity.
Read all positive factors
Sienna Senior Living (SIA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.34B
Dividend Yield3.97%
Average Volume (3M)281.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.3
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth16.69%
EPS Growth11.12%
CountryCA
Employees15,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding99,388,200
10 Day Avg. Volume195,427
30 Day Avg. Volume281,430
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-20.85
Price to Book (P/B)2.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio-43.69
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$26.30Price Target Upside13.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.16B
Sienna Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sienna Senior Living Inc. delivers senior living and long-term care (LTC) services throughout Canada, operating primarily through its Retirement and LTC divisions. The company provides a diverse array of elder care options, such as independent sup...
How the Company Makes Money
Sienna primarily makes money by operating seniors’ living communities and collecting recurring resident and care-related revenue. A key revenue stream is resident fees from retirement residences, which typically include monthly rent and service ch...
Sienna Senior Living Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue and NOI growth in key segments, robust FFO/AFFO gains, successful acquisitions/developments and solid liquidity. Operational metrics (occupancy, optimization portfolio performance, team engagement) were highlighted as durable strengths. The principal challenges were typical of a growth phase—timing/scale of development projects, cap-rate compression making acquisitions pricier, higher maintenance capex, and some uncertainty around cash taxes and future supply. Overall, the positives (sizable asset additions, strong organic growth, healthy balance sheet and investor demand) substantially outweigh the manageable risks presented.Positive Updates
Significant Asset Growth
Added over $800 million of assets in 2025, including 10 properties across 3 provinces (nearly 1,800 beds/suites). Q4 acquisitions added $193 million and additional $79 million closed since the start of 2026 (including Bartlett for ~$59.4M).
Negative Updates
Uncertainty on Cash Taxes
Q4 cash taxes were lower than anticipated due to timing of December acquisitions (benefit ~ $2 million from full-year CCA). Management notes cash tax rate for 2026 should be between 2024 and 2025 levels but remains uncertain and dependent on future acquisitions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Asset Growth
Added over $800 million of assets in 2025, including 10 properties across 3 provinces (nearly 1,800 beds/suites). Q4 acquisitions added $193 million and additional $79 million closed since the start of 2026 (including Bartlett for ~$59.4M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Sienna guided 2026 to continued organic growth, forecasting same‑property NOI growth of >10% in Retirement and low‑single‑digit growth in Long‑Term Care, driven by expected rental growth of ~4%, continued care‑revenue gains and occupancy around 95% (Q4 2025 same‑property occupancy 94.7%; January 95.2%; average monthly ≥95% since September); the company plans to sustain heavy acquisition/development activity after adding >$800M of assets and ~1,800 beds/suites in 2025 (Q4 additions $193M; $79M added YTD 2026; Bartlett ~$59.4M), to progress the Glen Rouge Toronto redevelopment (448 beds; ~$250M cost; 7.5–8% development yield; completion ~2030) and to continue optimizing underperforming assets (optimization NOI +22.1% YoY in Q4; occupancy +790 bps YoY; optimization margins ~24% aiming toward same‑property margins). Management reiterated financial flexibility with >$500M liquidity and $1.5B unencumbered assets, recent issuance of $250M unsecured debentures and repayment of $175M, Q4 ATM proceeds of ~ $101M (ATM renewed for $150M), and noted 2025 operating/financial anchors including Q4 revenue +14.2% to $278.4M, Q4 same‑property NOI +10.1% to $47.4M (Retirement +15.4%, LTC +5.6%), 2025 OFFO +27.1% and AFFO +25.7% (per‑share OFFO +5.8%, AFFO +4.7%), Q4 OFFO $34.2M (+24%), Q4 AFFO $27.9M (+19.8%), Q4 AFFO payout 80.7% (vs 83.1% prior), and a record low company turnover of ~19% in 2025.Sienna Senior Living Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.05B | 1.00B | 893.16M | 785.37M | 718.59M | 668.49M |
| Gross Profit | 158.79M | 140.35M | 189.14M | 146.31M | 138.33M | 134.92M |
| EBITDA | 179.74M | 166.38M | 150.27M | 113.00M | 103.25M | 103.46M |
| Net Income | 45.38M | 44.53M | 38.40M | 7.04M | 10.67M | 20.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.69B | 2.54B | 1.86B | 1.70B | 1.68B | 1.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 174.99M | 119.66M | 127.20M | 24.40M | 38.05M | 29.05M |
| Total Debt | 1.43B | 1.43B | 1.01B | 1.01B | 977.96M | 950.28M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.83B | 1.82B | 1.38B | 1.32B | 1.25B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 865.46M | 719.53M | 480.72M | 373.77M | 434.69M | 405.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.69M | -42.86M | 11.89M | 56.21M | 49.64M | 58.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 141.92M | 94.75M | 159.91M | 117.99M | 105.28M | 98.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -532.36M | -484.09M | -126.47M | -75.83M | -135.69M | -18.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 428.27M | 381.80M | 69.35M | -55.81M | 39.41M | -147.09M |
Sienna Senior Living Technical Analysis
Positive
23.16
Price Trends
22.05
Positive
22.31
Positive
21.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
69.64
Neutral
76.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SIA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.60, above the 50-day MA of 22.05, and above the 200-day MA of 21.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SIA.
Sienna Senior Living Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
23.55
5.78
32.55%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.38
0.52
18.39%
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
38.79
26.18
207.71%
Sienna Senior Living Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
CI Global Asset Management Cuts Risk Ratings on Three Alternative Funds, Raises One Climate Strategy
Neutral
Jul 16, 2026
CI Global Asset Management has recalibrated the risk ratings of four of its investment funds, lowering the classifications for three alternative strategies and one climate-focused equity fund under the Canadian Securities Administrators’ man...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.