Sienna Senior Living (SIA) AI Stock Analysis

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Sienna Senior Living

(TSX:SIA)

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:

C$19.00

▲(3.88% Upside)

Sienna Senior Living's overall stock score is driven by a strong earnings call that highlights strategic acquisitions and operational improvements. However, financial performance concerns, particularly around cash flow and leverage, along with a high P/E ratio, weigh on the score. The technical analysis suggests a neutral market sentiment, contributing to a moderate overall score.

Positive Factors

Acquisitions

SIA announced an agreement to acquire a retirement home in Stittsville, ON, expecting a year-one yield of 6.8% post immediate synergies, demonstrating strategic growth through acquisitions.

Demographic Tailwinds

The company continues to make inroads scaling both its LTC and retirement platforms amid what is seen as an attractive outlook supported by demographic tailwinds in Canada.

Retirement Segment Growth

Sienna expects significant growth in its retirement segment, with improvements in rent rates and occupancy expected to boost margins.

Negative Factors

Occupancy Fluctuations

Retirement occupancy of 92.1% was +150bps YoY, but was down from 92.5% in Q1, indicating fluctuations in occupancy rates.

Stock Price Decline

Amid solid operating and financial performance, along with no change in operational targets, a circa 3.5% drop in shares is seen as unwarranted.

Sienna Senior Living (SIA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$1.66B

Dividend Yield5.12%

Average Volume (3M)260.26K

Price to Earnings (P/E)45.2

Beta (1Y)0.58

Revenue Growth10.13%

EPS Growth1.30%

CountryCA

Employees12,000

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength52

IndustryMedical - Care Facilities

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.06

Shares Outstanding92,352,720

10 Day Avg. Volume242,377

30 Day Avg. Volume260,259

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$20.25

Price Target Upside10.72% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Sienna Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSienna Senior Living (SIA) is a leading provider of senior living and long-term care services in Canada. The company operates a network of residences offering a range of services including independent living, assisted living, memory care, and long-term care. Sienna Senior Living is committed to enriching the lives of its residents by providing quality care and services tailored to their needs.

How the Company Makes MoneySienna Senior Living generates revenue primarily through the operation of its senior living and long-term care facilities. The company's key revenue streams include resident fees for independent and assisted living accommodations, memory care services, and long-term care facilities. These fees typically cover services such as housing, meals, personal care, and healthcare support. Additionally, government funding and subsidies for long-term care facilities contribute significantly to the company's earnings. Sienna Senior Living may also engage in partnerships with healthcare providers and other organizations to enhance service offerings and optimize operational efficiencies, further supporting its revenue model.

Sienna Senior Living Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong acquisition activity, significant increases in same property NOI, and robust occupancy growth, indicating a positive operational and financial outlook. However, there were concerns about temporary dilution impacting per-share metrics and an increased AFFO payout ratio. Overall, the positive elements significantly outweigh the negatives, particularly given the company's strategic positioning and growth potential.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Acquisition Activity

Completed $315 million of acquisitions during the quarter and remain on track to add close to $100 million by the end of this quarter, with further potential acquisitions during the remainder of the year.

Increase in Same Property NOI

Same property NOI increased by 12.3% in the Retirement segment and by 4.8% in the Long-Term Care segment.

Occupancy Growth

Average same-property occupancy was up 150 basis points year-over-year, reaching 92.1% in the second quarter. Subsequent monthly occupancy increased to 93.1% in July.

Positive Impact of Repositioning Efforts

Second quarter NOI increased by approximately 32% year-over-year in the optimization portfolio with an average margin increase of approximately 400 basis points.

Operational and Financial Stability

Revenue increased by 17.4% year-over-year to $253.6 million, and operating funds from operations increased by 24.3% to $29.3 million compared to last year.

Development and Expansion

Completed the first Long-Term Care redevelopment project in North Bay and finalizing a $140 million campus of care in Brantford, Ontario, expected to add 3% to AFFO per share when fully operational.

Improvement in Retirement Segment

Retirement segment same property NOI increased by 12.3%, driven by improved occupancy and rate growth, supporting a 230 basis point improvement in operating margin.

Negative Updates

Temporary Dilution from Equity Issuances

Decrease in OFFO and FFO per share by 1.5% and 4.0%, respectively, due to temporary dilution from equity issuances in August 2024 and February 2025.

Increased AFFO Payout Ratio

AFFO payout ratio increased by 380 basis points to 89.5% due to temporary dilution.

Company Guidance

In the second quarter of 2025, the company maintained its growth momentum with significant financial achievements and strategic acquisitions. The company completed $315 million in acquisitions during the quarter and plans to add approximately $100 million more by the end of the quarter, with additional potential acquisitions throughout the year. Key developments include the opening of a long-term care community in North Bay and a campus of care in Brantford, valued collectively at over $220 million. Operationally, the company reported a 12.3% increase in same property NOI in the Retirement segment and a 4.8% increase in the Long-Term Care segment. The Retirement segment also saw a year-over-year occupancy increase of 150 basis points, reaching 92.1% in the second quarter and 93.1% in July. The company aims to achieve a stabilized occupancy target of 95% by Q1 2026. Financially, the company reported a 17.4% increase in revenue on a proportionate basis, reaching $253.6 million in Q2 2025. Operating funds from operations increased by 24.3% to $29.3 million, while adjusted funds from operations rose by 21% to $24.1 million compared to the previous year. The company also raised $288 million in equity to fund its acquisitions and developments, leading to a temporary dilution impacting OFFO and AFFO per share, which decreased by 1.5% and 4.0% respectively. Despite this, the company maintains a strong financial position with $313 million in liquidity and no major debt maturities until Q1 2026. The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025, expecting same-property retirement NOI growth to exceed 10% and low single-digit growth in the Long-Term Care segment.

Sienna Senior Living Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sienna Senior Living shows revenue growth and improved gross profit margins, but faces challenges with profitability and cash flow. High leverage remains a concern, although it has slightly improved. The company needs to focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow generation to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Positive

Sienna Senior Living shows a consistent revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.71%. Gross profit margin has improved significantly in the TTM period to 57.67%, indicating better cost management. However, net profit margin has slightly decreased to 3.63% from the previous annual report. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased slightly, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.95 in the TTM period, which is an improvement from previous years but still indicates significant leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 6.15%, reflecting lower profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high leverage suggests a lower proportion of equity in the capital structure.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow has decreased in the TTM period, and free cash flow remains negative, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.17, and the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that the company is not generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	929.68M	893.16M	785.37M	718.59M	668.49M	664.23M
Gross Profit	536.19M	138.04M	96.68M	91.00M	81.85M	70.33M
EBITDA	136.29M	142.29M	100.27M	106.11M	114.24M	83.19M
Net Income	33.78M	38.40M	7.04M	10.67M	20.65M	-24.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.16B	1.86B	1.70B	1.68B	1.61B	1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.20M	127.20M	24.40M	38.05M	29.05M	95.68M
Total Debt	1.18B	1.01B	1.01B	977.96M	950.28M	1.03B
Total Liabilities	1.55B	1.38B	1.32B	1.25B	1.20B	1.23B
Stockholders Equity	608.10M	480.72M	373.77M	434.69M	405.85M	447.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-73.18M	-172.00K	62.60M	48.43M	56.69M	49.51M
Operating Cash Flow	88.33M	149.93M	126.70M	106.08M	98.52M	69.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-273.78M	-116.48M	-74.02M	-134.73M	-18.05M	-8.76M
Financing Cash Flow	185.09M	69.35M	-66.34M	37.65M	-147.09M	14.43M

Sienna Senior Living Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price18.29

Price Trends

50DMA

18.22

Positive

100DMA

17.85

Positive

200DMA

16.62

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.08

Negative

RSI

58.17

Neutral

STOCH

81.99

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SIA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.01, above the 50-day MA of 18.22, and above the 200-day MA of 16.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SIA.

Sienna Senior Living Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXE	70 Outperform	C$1.10B	13.30	65.09%	3.85%	8.68%	39.93%
SIA	59 Neutral	C$1.66B	45.16	6.94%	5.12%	10.13%	1.30%
CRRX	53 Neutral	C$185.47M	―	-2.17%	―	-0.16%	75.25%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.95B	-0.38	-43.43%	2.22%	22.30%	-1.83%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:SIA

Sienna Senior Living

18.29

2.53

16.05%

TSE:CRRX

CareRx

3.02

1.16

62.37%

TSE:EXE

Extendicare

13.18

4.47

51.32%

Sienna Senior Living Corporate Events

Dividends

Sienna Senior Living Declares August Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Positive

Aug 15, 2025

Sienna Senior Living Inc. has declared a dividend of $0.078 per common share for August 2025, translating to an annualized dividend of $0.936 per share. The dividend will be payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders on record as of August 29, 2025. The company offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a 3% discount. This announcement underscores Sienna’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may enhance shareholder engagement through the DRIP option.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SIA) stock is a Hold with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sienna Senior Living stock, see the TSE:SIA Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Sienna Senior Living Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Expands Market Presence

Positive

Aug 12, 2025

Sienna Senior Living reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with a notable 17.4% increase in revenue and an 8.2% rise in net operating income, excluding one-time items. The company also completed significant acquisitions and redevelopment projects, enhancing its market position and growth momentum. Sienna’s recognition by Time Magazine as one of Canada’s Best Companies underscores its sustainable growth and positive impact on stakeholders.