Extendicare (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.50B
• Dividend Yield: 2.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 175.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 11.59%
• EPS Growth: 41.99%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 23,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 94,457,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 108,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 175,588
• PEG Ratio: 1.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$28.40
• Price Target Upside: 7.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.24B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$29.00 ▲(9.72% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is supported primarily by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook highlighting improving operations and an accretive, strategically significant acquisition. The main constraints are only moderate underlying financial-quality consistency (thin margins and volatile free-cash-flow conversion) and a valuation that is not especially cheap, with added integration and leverage risk tied to the pending CBI transaction.

Positive Factors

Steady multi-year revenue growth

Consistent top-line expansion from 2020 to 2025 demonstrates durable demand for Extendicare's services across long-term care and home health. Sustained revenue growth supports scale, improves bargaining power with payors and suppliers, and underpins long-term investment in capacity and service quality.

Home health organic growth and accretive acquisition

Robust organic growth at ParaMed plus an acquisition that added material revenue and NOI indicate a scalable, capital-efficient growth engine less dependent on LTC occupancy. This diversifies revenue, improves margin mix, and creates a repeatable playbook for consolidating fragmented home-care markets over the medium term.

Material improvement in leverage and capital structure

A move to ~0.9x debt-to-equity materially reduces refinancing and liquidity risk versus prior years, giving management more financial flexibility to fund redevelopment, acquisitions and working capital. A stronger capital structure improves resilience to funding cuts and operational shocks.

Negative Factors

Free cash flow volatility and decline

Volatile and declining FCF constrains the company's ability to self-fund redevelopment, acquisitions and dividends without relying on external financing. Persistent conversion weakness raises the structural risk that capital spending or working-capital swings can force incremental debt or equity issuance.

Thin and volatile margins

Low and variable gross margins limit downside protection against rising wage and input costs and make profitability highly sensitive to provincial funding changes. Structural margin thinness reduces the buffer for capital reinvestment and makes sustained margin expansion difficult without service mix shifts or rate increases.

Managed Services revenue and contract concentration risk

Loss of a management contract and falling Managed Services revenue highlight exposure to contract concentration and the impact of asset disposals. Persistent contract churn can structurally shrink fee-based, higher-margin service lines and undermine recurring service revenue and cross-selling opportunities.

Extendicare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Extendicare Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides care and services for seniors in Canada. The company offers long term care (LTC) services; retirement living services; and home health care services, such as nursing care, occupational, physical and speech therapy, and assistance with daily activities, as well as contract and consulting services to third parties. It operates a network of 119 LTC homes and retirement communities, as well as home health care operations under the Extendicare, Esprit Lifestyle Communities, ParaMed, Extendicare Assist, and SGP Purchasing Partner Network brands. Extendicare Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Markham, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Extendicare generates revenue primarily through government funding and private pay for its healthcare services. The majority of its income comes from long-term care facilities, where it receives per diem funding from provincial governments based on the level of care required by residents. Additionally, the company earns revenue from home health care services, which are often funded through a combination of public health insurance and private payments. Extendicare also has partnerships with various healthcare organizations and agencies, which help to expand its service offerings and enhance its market reach. These partnerships can lead to additional contracts and revenue opportunities. Furthermore, the company may benefit from economies of scale and operational efficiencies, which can improve profit margins across its service lines.

Extendicare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and profitability have improved meaningfully into 2025, and leverage metrics improved versus prior years. Offsetting factors are thin/variable margins and uneven free-cash-flow conversion, including a sharp 2025 FCF decline versus 2024 and historically negative FCF in 2022–2023.

Income Statement

Revenue shows steady growth over the last five annual periods (from ~$1.10B in 2020 to ~$1.66B in 2025) with positive growth in each year since 2020. Profitability has improved meaningfully versus 2021–2023, with 2025 delivering solid operating performance (about 10.6% EBITDA margin and ~5.8% net margin) and higher earnings than prior years. Offsetting this, gross margin remains thin for the business (~12% in 2025) and has been volatile across the period, while net margin is still modest and sensitive to cost pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially: debt-to-equity declined from very high levels in 2021–2023 to ~0.9x in 2025, supported by a sharp increase in equity (to ~$373M in 2025). Total debt rose year over year in 2025, but the company’s capital structure looks more balanced than in prior years. Key risk remains that the business historically operated with high leverage (over 2x debt-to-equity as recently as 2024), which can amplify earnings volatility if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved versus the weak 2023 period (when free cash flow was deeply negative), and 2025 operating cash flow was strong at ~$165M with positive free cash flow (~$63M). However, free cash flow declined sharply in 2025 versus 2024 (down ~36%), and free cash flow covered only a modest portion of net income in 2025 (roughly 38%), pointing to conversion volatility. Overall, cash flow is positive but not consistently strong year-to-year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.66B	1.47B	1.30B	1.22B	1.17B
Gross Profit	199.59M	168.00M	167.62M	76.83M	115.61M
EBITDA	175.61M	155.27M	98.63M	48.90M	67.46M
Net Income	96.66M	75.21M	33.98M	69.55M	11.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.07B	719.79M	672.73M	781.58M	900.32M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	349.18M	121.85M	75.91M	167.28M	104.63M
Total Debt	342.93M	292.49M	334.52M	383.97M	536.85M
Total Liabilities	693.14M	595.44M	584.81M	680.88M	798.40M
Stockholders Equity	373.37M	124.35M	87.92M	100.70M	101.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.40M	101.69M	-106.13M	-2.76M	-6.10M
Operating Cash Flow	165.21M	143.64M	23.28M	98.87M	59.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-119.02M	-9.11M	-84.45M	155.64M	-59.39M
Financing Cash Flow	180.43M	-87.87M	-30.93M	-191.86M	-74.84M

Extendicare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.60, above the 50-day MA of 23.09, and above the 200-day MA of 17.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EXE.

Extendicare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DR	76 Outperform	C$301.32M	2.37	39.85%	2.35%	-40.05%	558.77%
EXE	70 Outperform	C$2.50B	23.48	65.57%	2.28%	11.59%	41.99%
SIA	63 Neutral	C$2.33B	48.33	7.07%	4.47%	11.47%	6.45%
CRRX	59 Neutral	C$242.16M	3,810.00	0.11%	1.03%	0.19%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Extendicare Corporate Events

Extendicare boosts earnings, raises dividend and doubles down on home health with $570 million CBI deal

Extendicare reported a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA excluding out-of-period items rising 36.4% to $45.6 million, driven by 27.3% growth in home health care volumes and contributions from recent acquisitions, including nine Class C long-term care homes and Closing the Gap. The company also increased its monthly dividend by 5%, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory and balance sheet strength, and expanded its SGP procurement reach to 153,600 third-party and joint venture beds.

Strategically, Extendicare is accelerating its expansion in home health through a $570 million agreement to acquire CBI Home Health, a national provider that delivered over 10 million hours of care in 2024 and generated about $477.9 million in revenue and $61.9 million in adjusted EBITDA over the twelve months ended July 31, 2025. The deal, funded partly by a $200 million private placement and an upsized $214.5 million credit facility, is expected to strengthen Extendicare’s leadership in Canada’s home health market and deliver additional run-rate cost synergies once integrated, reinforcing its service-focused growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Extendicare declares February 2026 monthly dividend of C$0.042 per share

Extendicare Inc., a major Canadian provider of senior care services, operates 99 long-term care homes, extensive home health care operations and a large group purchasing network serving facilities across the country. Its diversified platform spans owned and managed care homes, in-home support and procurement services, positioning the company as a key player in meeting the needs of Canada’s growing seniors’ population.

The company has declared a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for February 2026, payable on March 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend under Canadian tax rules, signals continued capital returns to shareholders and may be viewed as an indicator of management’s confidence in the stability of Extendicare’s cash flows from its senior care operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Extendicare Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call

Extendicare Inc. will release its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after markets close on February 26, 2026, and will host a conference call and webcast the following day, led by its president and CEO Michael Guerriere and CFO David Bacon, to discuss the results. The scheduled disclosure reinforces the company’s ongoing communication with investors and other stakeholders, providing a key upcoming checkpoint on its financial performance and operational trends in the Canadian seniors’ care sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Extendicare Declares Eligible C$0.042 January 2026 Dividend

Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for January 2026, payable on February 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 30, 2026, and designated it as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes. The announcement underscores the company’s continued capital return to shareholders and signals ongoing stability in its senior care and services operations across Canada, which may be viewed positively by income-focused investors tracking its dividend consistency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Extendicare Declares January 2026 Monthly Dividend of C$0.042 per Share

Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for January 2026, payable on February 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 30, 2026, and has designated the payout as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes. The announcement underscores Extendicare’s ongoing distribution policy and may signal continued confidence in its cash generation from its senior care, home health and group purchasing operations across Canada, which are tied to the long-term demand trends of an aging population.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Extendicare Completes $200 Million Private Placement to Fund Strategic Acquisition

Extendicare has completed a $200 million private placement of common shares, issuing 10,640,000 shares at $18.80 each. The proceeds, approximately $192 million after fees, will be used to partially fund the acquisition of CBI Home Health by its subsidiary, ParaMed Inc. This acquisition is part of Extendicare’s strategy to expand its home health care services, positioning the company for growth in the Canadian senior care market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Buy with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.