Extendicare (TSE:EXE)
TSX:EXE
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Extendicare
(TSX:EXE)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$29.00
▲(10.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26
The score is supported primarily by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook highlighting improving operations and an accretive, strategically significant acquisition. The main constraints are only moderate underlying financial-quality consistency (thin margins and volatile free-cash-flow conversion) and a valuation that is not especially cheap, with added integration and leverage risk tied to the pending CBI transaction.
Positive Factors
Steady multi-year revenue growth
Consistent top-line expansion from 2020 to 2025 demonstrates durable demand for Extendicare's services across long-term care and home health. Sustained revenue growth supports scale, improves bargaining power with payors and suppliers, and underpins long-term investment in capacity and service quality.
Negative Factors
Free cash flow volatility and decline
Volatile and declining FCF constrains the company's ability to self-fund redevelopment, acquisitions and dividends without relying on external financing. Persistent conversion weakness raises the structural risk that capital spending or working-capital swings can force incremental debt or equity issuance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Steady multi-year revenue growth
Consistent top-line expansion from 2020 to 2025 demonstrates durable demand for Extendicare's services across long-term care and home health. Sustained revenue growth supports scale, improves bargaining power with payors and suppliers, and underpins long-term investment in capacity and service quality.
Read all positive factors
Extendicare (EXE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.47B
Dividend Yield2.28%
Average Volume (3M)175.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.9
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth11.59%
EPS Growth41.99%
CountryCA
Employees23,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding94,457,910
10 Day Avg. Volume108,359
30 Day Avg. Volume175,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.14
Price to Book (P/B)4.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio28.76
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$31.67Price Target Upside20.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.23B
Extendicare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Extendicare Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides care and services for seniors in Canada. The company offers long term care (LTC) services; retirement living services; and home health care services, such as nursing care, occupational, physical...
How the Company Makes Money
Extendicare generates revenue primarily through government funding and private pay for its healthcare services. The majority of its income comes from long-term care facilities, where it receives per diem funding from provincial governments based o...
Extendicare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum driven by robust home health organic growth, margin expansion across segments, successful midyear acquisitions performing ahead of expectations, a strategic accretive CBI transaction, improved liquidity and a dividend increase. Identified challenges were largely manageable and relate to integration execution, lumpy out-of-period items, localized labor constraints in rural markets, some managed services revenue loss following third-party contract terminations, higher maintenance CapEx timing and modest dilution from an equity raise. Overall, positives (notably large percentage increases in EBITDA, revenue growth, home health volume and margin gains, and strategic M&A) materially outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $45.6 million, an increase of 36.4% year-over-year (after adjusting for out-of-period items); consolidated Q4 NOI improved by $14.3 million or 30.2% (ex-out-of-period).
Negative Updates
Reported AFFO Per Share and Maintenance CapEx Pressure
Reported Q4 AFFO per share was $0.337, slightly down year-over-year due to higher maintenance CapEx timing and additional maintenance spend related to acquired LTC homes; maintenance CapEx moderated reported earnings despite underlying improvement (ex-items AFFO up 6%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $45.6 million, an increase of 36.4% year-over-year (after adjusting for out-of-period items); consolidated Q4 NOI improved by $14.3 million or 30.2% (ex-out-of-period).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance emphasized an expected early‑Q2 close of the $570M CBI Home Health acquisition (adding ~10 million hours, ~8,500 team members, an estimated $478M of revenue and $61.9M of pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA; 9% EPS accretive at close, rising to 15% with $7.4M of synergies) and completion of Closing the Gap integration by Q3; financing plans include a $200M bought‑deal (net $191.5M), a $214.5M upsizing of senior secured facilities (incremental $154.5M delayed‑draw + $60M revolver), planned draws of ~$154.5M (delayed draw) and ~ $154M on the revolver plus cash on hand of $348M, yielding pro‑forma total debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.7–2.9x (based on previously disclosed pro‑forma adj. EBITDA). Operational expectations include home‑health margin expansion toward a 13%+ target (Q4 excl. items 13.2%, normalized 2025 at 12.8%) with continued elevated organic volume growth (15.3% Q4), managed‑services NOI margins in the 50–55% target range (Q4 55.5%), LTC NOI margin and occupancy at 10.9% and 98% respectively, AFFO per basic share excl. out‑of‑period +6% to $0.301 (Q4 AFFO $0.337), payout ratios of 42% (Q4) and 46% (FY) and a 5% dividend increase to $0.0441/month; cash tax guidance for 2026 is ~24–27% of pretax FFO.Extendicare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.66B | 1.47B | 1.30B | 1.22B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 199.59M | 168.00M | 167.62M | 76.83M | 115.61M |
| EBITDA | 175.61M | 155.27M | 98.63M | 48.90M | 67.46M |
| Net Income | 96.66M | 75.21M | 33.98M | 69.55M | 11.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.07B | 719.79M | 672.73M | 781.58M | 900.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 349.18M | 121.85M | 75.91M | 167.28M | 104.63M |
| Total Debt | 342.93M | 292.49M | 334.52M | 383.97M | 536.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 693.14M | 595.44M | 584.81M | 680.88M | 798.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 373.37M | 124.35M | 87.92M | 100.70M | 101.92M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 63.40M | 101.69M | -106.13M | -2.76M | -6.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 165.21M | 143.64M | 23.28M | 98.87M | 59.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.02M | -9.11M | -84.45M | 155.64M | -59.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 180.43M | -87.87M | -30.93M | -191.86M | -74.84M |
Extendicare Technical Analysis
Positive
26.19
Price Trends
24.81
Positive
22.72
Positive
18.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Positive
55.92
Neutral
33.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.24, above the 50-day MA of 24.81, and above the 200-day MA of 18.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EXE.
Extendicare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$2.47B | 18.86 | 47.65% | 2.28% | 11.59% | 41.99% | |
67 Neutral | C$291.95M | 10.68 | 89.16% | 2.35% | -40.05% | 558.77% | |
66 Neutral | C$240.31M | 9.17 | 28.24% | 1.03% | 0.19% | ― | |
63 Neutral | C$2.15B | 42.05 | 6.93% | 4.47% | 11.47% | 6.45% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
26.19
13.65
108.92%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.82
1.17
44.37%
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
21.64
5.77
36.32%
TSE:DR
Medical Facilities
16.54
0.03
0.18%
Extendicare Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare boosts earnings, raises dividend and doubles down on home health with $570 million CBI deal
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Extendicare reported a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA excluding out-of-period items rising 36.4% to $45.6 million, driven by 27.3% growth in home health care volumes and contributions from recent acquisitions, including...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Extendicare declares February 2026 monthly dividend of C$0.042 per share
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Extendicare Inc., a major Canadian provider of senior care services, operates 99 long-term care homes, extensive home health care operations and a large group purchasing network serving facilities across the country. Its diversified platform spans...
Financial Disclosures
Extendicare Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
Extendicare Inc. will release its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after markets close on February 26, 2026, and will host a conference call and webcast the following day, led by its president and CEO Michael Guerriere and CFO Davi...
Dividends
Extendicare Declares Eligible C$0.042 January 2026 Dividend
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for January 2026, payable on February 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 30, 2026, and designated it as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes. The ann...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Extendicare Declares January 2026 Monthly Dividend of C$0.042 per Share
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for January 2026, payable on February 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 30, 2026, and has designated the payout as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purpo...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare Completes $200 Million Private Placement to Fund Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Dec 3, 2025
Extendicare has completed a $200 million private placement of common shares, issuing 10,640,000 shares at $18.80 each. The proceeds, approximately $192 million after fees, will be used to partially fund the acquisition of CBI Home Health by its su...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.