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Extendicare (TSE:EXE)
TSX:EXE
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Extendicare (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:EXE

Extendicare

(TSX:EXE)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$14.50
▲(8.29% Upside)
Extendicare's strong earnings call performance and reasonable valuation are the most significant factors contributing to its score. The company's financial performance shows robust profitability, though high leverage and technical indicators suggest caution. Overall, Extendicare presents a balanced investment opportunity with potential for growth, supported by strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency.
Positive Factors
Market Demand
Given aging demographics and a significant LTC waitlist in Ontario, Extendicare should benefit from demand tailwinds ahead.
Operational Performance
Extendicare continues to deliver strong operational results and growth across its business lines.
Strategic Acquisition
The company has been putting its under-levered balance sheet to work with the recent announcement of the agreement to acquire Closing the Gap, a business that fits nicely into the existing home health platform and will drive accretion into 2026.
Negative Factors
Integration Risks
The acquisition of Closing the Gap, while promising, carries potential risks related to the integration and realization of expected synergies.

Extendicare (EXE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Extendicare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExtendicare Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides care and services for seniors in Canada. The company offers long term care (LTC) services; retirement living services; and home health care services, such as nursing care, occupational, physical and speech therapy, and assistance with daily activities, as well as contract and consulting services to third parties. It operates a network of 119 LTC homes and retirement communities, as well as home health care operations under the Extendicare, Esprit Lifestyle Communities, ParaMed, Extendicare Assist, and SGP Purchasing Partner Network brands. Extendicare Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Markham, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyExtendicare generates revenue primarily through its long-term care services, which include providing accommodation, meals, and healthcare services to residents in its facilities. The company also earns income through its retirement living operations, offering independent and assisted living arrangements. Another significant revenue stream comes from its home healthcare services, where Extendicare provides in-home nursing care, personal support, and therapy services. Additionally, Extendicare has partnerships and contracts with government entities and healthcare organizations that contribute to its financial performance. These partnerships often involve funding arrangements or service agreements that help stabilize revenue streams and support business growth.

Extendicare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.52%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong growth in key areas such as Adjusted EBITDA, home health care volumes, and successful acquisitions. However, there were challenges with the loss of revenue from closed Class C homes and a decline in Managed Services revenue. Despite these challenges, the positive developments and strategic acquisitions indicate a strong position for future growth.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Growth in Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $39.8 million, up 3% over the prior year. Excluding out-of-period items, adjusted EBITDA increased by 15.4%. AFFO increased to $0.29 per share, up 23.1% year-over-year.
Successful Acquisitions and Expansion
Completed acquisition of 9 Class C long-term care homes and a parcel of land from Revera for $41.9 million in cash, adding 822 long-term care beds and 574 private pay retirement beds. Expected to add approximately $13 million in annualized NOI.
Home Health Care Segment Growth
Average daily volumes in home health care were up 10.9% from the prior year, and NOI margin improved by 90 basis points to 13.5%.
Increase in Revenue and NOI
Consolidated Q2 revenue increased by 10% to $383.4 million. Excluding out-of-period items, Q2 NOI improved by $6.3 million or 12.9% to $55 million.
Managed Services Expansion
Third-party and joint venture beds serviced by SGP grew 5.9% from last year, now servicing over 149,000 beds.
Negative Updates
Loss from Closure of Class C LTC Homes
Loss of approximately $7.7 million in revenue from the closure of 2 redeveloped Class C homes, with a corresponding loss of approximately $900,000 in NOI.
Managed Services Revenue Decline
Managed Services revenue decreased $300,000 to $17.7 million and NOI declined $500,000 to $9.6 million due to loss of management fees from the sale by Revera of 30 homes.
Higher Operating Costs Impact
Higher operating costs across all segments partially offset the revenue growth, impacting overall profitability.
Company Guidance
During Extendicare Inc.'s Second Quarter 2025 Analyst Conference Call, the company provided several key financial metrics and strategic updates. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $39.8 million, a 3% increase over the previous year, and a notable 15.4% increase when excluding out-of-period items. The home health care segment led with a 10.9% increase in average daily volumes and a 90 basis point improvement in NOI margin to 13.5%. The company's AFFO rose to $0.29 per share, marking a 23.1% year-over-year increase, with a dividend payout ratio of 46% over the trailing 12 months. Extendicare completed two significant acquisitions: nine long-term care homes and a parcel of land for $41.9 million, adding 822 long-term care beds and 574 private pay retirement beds, and the acquisition of Closing the Gap for $75.1 million, which added over 1,200 caregivers and is expected to contribute $9.8 million in annualized NOI. The company enhanced its redevelopment strategy with six new projects in Ontario and increased its senior secured credit facility by $100 million, providing substantial liquidity for future growth.

Extendicare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Extendicare shows strong profitability and operational efficiency, with steady revenue growth. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and negative free cash flow growth suggest caution. The company is well-positioned in terms of cash flow generation, but reliance on debt poses potential financial risks.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Extendicare has shown a consistent improvement in profitability with gross profit margin at 56.4% and net profit margin at 5.2% in TTM. Revenue growth is steady at 0.5% compared to the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 8.5% and 10.5%, respectively, indicating efficient operational performance.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29, indicating a high reliance on debt. Return on equity stands at 61.6%, and the equity ratio is 17.5%, suggesting potential risks due to leverage but also strong returns on equity.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows robust operational cash flow to net income ratio of 1.59, and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.97, pointing towards strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline from previous levels.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.47B1.30B1.22B1.17B1.10B
Gross Profit168.00M167.62M76.83M115.61M201.16M
EBITDA152.52M98.63M48.90M67.46M125.08M
Net Income75.21M33.98M69.55M11.50M54.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets719.79M672.73M781.58M900.32M963.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments121.85M75.91M167.28M104.63M179.96M
Total Debt292.49M334.52M383.97M536.85M564.60M
Total Liabilities595.44M584.81M680.88M798.40M834.94M
Stockholders Equity124.35M87.92M100.70M101.92M128.19M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow101.69M-106.13M-2.76M-6.10M88.17M
Operating Cash Flow143.64M23.28M98.87M59.08M121.27M
Investing Cash Flow-9.11M-84.45M155.64M-59.39M2.00M
Financing Cash Flow-87.87M-30.93M-191.86M-74.84M-38.16M

Extendicare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price13.39
Price Trends
50DMA
13.38
Positive
100DMA
13.48
Negative
200DMA
12.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Negative
RSI
57.57
Neutral
STOCH
87.65
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.82, above the 50-day MA of 13.38, and above the 200-day MA of 12.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EXE.

Extendicare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
C$1.13B13.6865.09%3.78%8.68%39.93%
70
Outperform
C$1.19B30.45-14.61%17.19%-191.01%
67
Neutral
C$1.71B46.296.94%5.09%10.13%1.30%
53
Neutral
C$183.36M-2.17%-0.16%75.25%
51
Neutral
$7.46B-0.16-46.00%2.25%22.76%-2.28%
$197.45M2.1241.13%2.44%
$189.99M
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
13.39
5.37
66.96%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.01
0.92
44.02%
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
18.39
4.01
27.89%
MFCSF
Medical Facilities
10.60
0.97
10.07%
TSE:WELL
WELL Health Technologies Corp
4.78
0.13
2.80%
TSE:MEDI
Wellbeing Digital Sciences Inc
1.85
0.00
0.00%

Extendicare Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Extendicare Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Acquisitions
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Extendicare Inc. reported a 15.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025, driven by growth in its home health care segment and improvements in long-term care, including the acquisition of nine Class C LTC homes. The company completed several strategic transactions, including the sale of three LTC projects and the acquisition of Closing the Gap, which is expected to enhance its service offerings and operational scale. These moves, along with increased credit facilities, position Extendicare for future growth and improved market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Extendicare Declares July 2025 Dividend of C$0.042 per Share
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for July 2025, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 31, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders, reinforcing its stable financial position and dedication to maintaining investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Extendicare Schedules Q2 2025 Financial Results Release and Conference Call
Neutral
Jul 7, 2025

Extendicare Inc. announced the release of its second quarter 2025 financial results scheduled for August 6, 2025, followed by a conference call on August 7, 2025, led by its top executives. This announcement is part of Extendicare’s ongoing communication strategy with stakeholders, reflecting its commitment to transparency and engagement in the senior care industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Extendicare Expands with Acquisition and Credit Facility Increase
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

Extendicare has completed the acquisition of Closing the Gap Healthcare Group through its subsidiary ParaMed Inc., enhancing its capabilities in rehabilitation services and integrated care models. This acquisition, valued at $75.5 million with potential earnouts, is expected to strengthen Extendicare’s home healthcare platform. Additionally, Extendicare has increased its Senior Secured Credit Facility to $375 million, positioning itself for further strategic acquisitions and growth, supported by a $100 million increase in its credit facilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Extendicare Declares June 2025 Dividend, Reinforcing Commitment to Shareholders
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

Extendicare Inc. has announced a cash dividend of C$0.042 per common share for June 2025, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders recorded by June 30, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors while maintaining its focus on delivering quality care services to Canada’s growing senior population. The announcement may positively impact shareholder value and reinforce Extendicare’s position in the senior care industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Extendicare Expands Senior Care Services with Acquisition of Nine Long-Term Care Homes
Positive
Jun 3, 2025

Extendicare Inc. has completed the acquisition of nine ‘Class C’ long-term care homes from Revera Inc. in Ontario and Manitoba, along with a parcel of vacant land in Ontario, for approximately $60.3 million. This strategic acquisition, funded by cash on hand, expands Extendicare’s footprint in the senior care industry, enhancing its capacity to provide quality care to a growing senior population. The transaction underscores Extendicare’s commitment to meeting the increasing demand for senior care services and strengthens its market position in Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Extendicare Announces 2025 Shareholder Meeting Results
Positive
May 27, 2025

Extendicare Inc. announced the results of its 2025 Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, where key decisions included the election of nine directors, the appointment of KPMG LLP as auditors, approval of unallocated entitlements under the Long Term Incentive Plan, and acceptance of the company’s approach to executive compensation. These decisions reflect strong shareholder support and are expected to reinforce Extendicare’s strategic direction and operational stability, impacting its positioning in the senior care industry and providing assurance to stakeholders about the company’s governance and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:EXE) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Extendicare stock, see the TSE:EXE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 12, 2025