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Extendicare (TSE:EXE)
TSX:EXE
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Extendicare (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:EXE

Extendicare

(TSX:EXE)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$39.00
▲(34.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a meaningfully stronger balance sheet, partially offset by weaker/volatile cash flow conversion. Technicals are moderately supportive with a positive longer-term trend but neutral momentum. Valuation is a headwind due to a ~25 P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved operating performance
TTM revenue growth with materially stronger EBITDA and net margins reflects sustained operational recovery and better cost control across care and services. This improves internal earnings quality and supports ongoing reinvestment or debt reduction prospects over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile cash conversion
Substantially lower cash conversion versus reported earnings and a recent 23% FCF decline signal recurring working-capital/timing issues. Persistent cash volatility constrains the company's ability to consistently fund capex, dividends, or accelerated debt paydown without external financing.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved operating performance
TTM revenue growth with materially stronger EBITDA and net margins reflects sustained operational recovery and better cost control across care and services. This improves internal earnings quality and supports ongoing reinvestment or debt reduction prospects over the medium term.
Read all positive factors

Extendicare (EXE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Extendicare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Extendicare Inc. operates across Canada, delivering a wide array of vital care and support services specifically designed for the senior population through its various subsidiaries. The company's diverse service portfolio includes long-term care f...
How the Company Makes Money
Extendicare primarily generates revenue from (1) long-term care operations and (2) home health care services, supplemented by (3) ancillary service lines that support senior care delivery. In long-term care, it earns facility-level revenue associa...

Extendicare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum driven by robust home health organic growth, margin expansion across segments, successful midyear acquisitions performing ahead of expectations, a strategic accretive CBI transaction, improved liquidity and a dividend increase. Identified challenges were largely manageable and relate to integration execution, lumpy out-of-period items, localized labor constraints in rural markets, some managed services revenue loss following third-party contract terminations, higher maintenance CapEx timing and modest dilution from an equity raise. Overall, positives (notably large percentage increases in EBITDA, revenue growth, home health volume and margin gains, and strategic M&A) materially outweigh the headwinds.
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $45.6 million, an increase of 36.4% year-over-year (after adjusting for out-of-period items); consolidated Q4 NOI improved by $14.3 million or 30.2% (ex-out-of-period).
Negative Updates
Reported AFFO Per Share and Maintenance CapEx Pressure
Reported Q4 AFFO per share was $0.337, slightly down year-over-year due to higher maintenance CapEx timing and additional maintenance spend related to acquired LTC homes; maintenance CapEx moderated reported earnings despite underlying improvement (ex-items AFFO up 6%).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $45.6 million, an increase of 36.4% year-over-year (after adjusting for out-of-period items); consolidated Q4 NOI improved by $14.3 million or 30.2% (ex-out-of-period).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance emphasized an expected early‑Q2 close of the $570M CBI Home Health acquisition (adding ~10 million hours, ~8,500 team members, an estimated $478M of revenue and $61.9M of pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA; 9% EPS accretive at close, rising to 15% with $7.4M of synergies) and completion of Closing the Gap integration by Q3; financing plans include a $200M bought‑deal (net $191.5M), a $214.5M upsizing of senior secured facilities (incremental $154.5M delayed‑draw + $60M revolver), planned draws of ~$154.5M (delayed draw) and ~ $154M on the revolver plus cash on hand of $348M, yielding pro‑forma total debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.7–2.9x (based on previously disclosed pro‑forma adj. EBITDA). Operational expectations include home‑health margin expansion toward a 13%+ target (Q4 excl. items 13.2%, normalized 2025 at 12.8%) with continued elevated organic volume growth (15.3% Q4), managed‑services NOI margins in the 50–55% target range (Q4 55.5%), LTC NOI margin and occupancy at 10.9% and 98% respectively, AFFO per basic share excl. out‑of‑period +6% to $0.301 (Q4 AFFO $0.337), payout ratios of 42% (Q4) and 46% (FY) and a 5% dividend increase to $0.0441/month; cash tax guidance for 2026 is ~24–27% of pretax FFO.

Extendicare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operating performance has improved (TTM revenue up ~5.5% and margins rebounded: EBITDA ~11.1% vs ~7.6% in 2023; net margin ~5.8% vs ~2.6%), and leverage is materially better (debt-to-equity down to ~0.9x TTM). The main constraint is cash flow quality/consistency: TTM free cash flow is positive (~C$49M) but weak versus earnings and has declined ~23% TTM, with historical volatility.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.75B1.66B1.47B1.30B1.22B1.17B
Gross Profit553.60M199.59M168.00M167.62M76.83M115.61M
EBITDA205.13M175.61M155.27M98.63M48.90M67.46M
Net Income122.36M96.66M75.21M33.98M69.55M11.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.07B1.07B719.79M672.73M781.58M900.32M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments322.27M349.18M121.85M75.91M167.28M104.63M
Total Debt324.56M342.93M292.49M334.52M383.97M536.85M
Total Liabilities678.09M693.14M595.44M584.81M680.88M798.40M
Stockholders Equity393.16M373.37M124.35M87.92M100.70M101.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow49.25M63.40M101.69M-106.13M-2.76M-6.10M
Operating Cash Flow143.17M165.21M143.64M23.28M98.87M59.08M
Investing Cash Flow-109.74M-119.02M-9.11M-84.45M155.64M-59.39M
Financing Cash Flow178.26M180.43M-87.87M-30.93M-191.86M-74.84M

Extendicare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.10
Price Trends
50DMA
33.40
Positive
100DMA
30.19
Positive
200DMA
24.90
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.21
Negative
RSI
68.94
Neutral
STOCH
78.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.15, below the 50-day MA of 33.40, and above the 200-day MA of 24.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EXE.

Extendicare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
C$314.49M8.9531.06%2.35%-0.15%-50.57%
67
Neutral
C$221.90M8.2627.47%1.03%2.20%
62
Neutral
C$3.52B26.8345.35%2.28%18.81%50.80%
52
Neutral
C$2.26B48.566.44%4.47%16.69%11.12%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
37.00
24.09
186.64%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.50
0.67
23.46%
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
22.75
4.66
25.75%
TSE:DR
Medical Facilities
18.15
2.92
19.14%

Extendicare Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Extendicare Declares April 2026 Monthly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.0441 per common share for April 2026, payable on May 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2026. The payment, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, reflects ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare Raises $450 Million in Debut Investment-Grade Note Offering
Positive
Apr 14, 2026
Extendicare has completed a $450 million inaugural offering of 4.345% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2031, which have been rated BBB with a stable trend by Morningstar DBRS. The company used most of the proceeds to fully repay its term credit ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 06, 2026