Extendicare (TSE:EXE)
TSX:EXE
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Extendicare
(TSX:EXE)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$37.00
▲(27.15% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and a stronger balance sheet, plus a positive earnings outlook and accretive M&A guidance. Offsetting factors are weaker cash-flow conversion/FCF consistency, technically overbought conditions (high RSI), and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~18.4 with a ~1.5% yield).
Positive Factors
Home‑health scale & margin expansion
Sustained double‑digit organic volume growth and a step‑up in home‑health NOI margins reflect durable scale advantages and operational leverage in a fragmented market. Higher margins at scale improve cash generation and make the business more resilient to wage and reimbursement pressure over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak cash‑flow conversion & FCF volatility
Inconsistent cash conversion and historical negative free cash flow indicate structural working‑capital timing and capex pressures. This undermines the sustainability of dividends, redevelopment plans and M&A funding without recurring external financing, increasing long‑term financing and execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Home‑health scale & margin expansion
Sustained double‑digit organic volume growth and a step‑up in home‑health NOI margins reflect durable scale advantages and operational leverage in a fragmented market. Higher margins at scale improve cash generation and make the business more resilient to wage and reimbursement pressure over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Extendicare (EXE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.16B
Dividend Yield2.28%
Average Volume (3M)175.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth18.81%
EPS Growth50.80%
CountryCA
Employees23,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.38
Shares Outstanding94,821,945
10 Day Avg. Volume108,359
30 Day Avg. Volume175,588
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.14
Price to Book (P/B)4.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio28.76
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$38.42Price Target Upside32.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.25B
Extendicare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Extendicare Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides care and services for seniors in Canada. The company offers long term care (LTC) services; retirement living services; and home health care services, such as nursing care, occupational, physical...
How the Company Makes Money
Extendicare primarily generates revenue from (1) long-term care operations and (2) home health care services, supplemented by (3) ancillary service lines that support senior care delivery. In long-term care, it earns facility-level revenue associa...
Extendicare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum driven by robust home health organic growth, margin expansion across segments, successful midyear acquisitions performing ahead of expectations, a strategic accretive CBI transaction, improved liquidity and a dividend increase. Identified challenges were largely manageable and relate to integration execution, lumpy out-of-period items, localized labor constraints in rural markets, some managed services revenue loss following third-party contract terminations, higher maintenance CapEx timing and modest dilution from an equity raise. Overall, positives (notably large percentage increases in EBITDA, revenue growth, home health volume and margin gains, and strategic M&A) materially outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $45.6 million, an increase of 36.4% year-over-year (after adjusting for out-of-period items); consolidated Q4 NOI improved by $14.3 million or 30.2% (ex-out-of-period).
Negative Updates
Reported AFFO Per Share and Maintenance CapEx Pressure
Reported Q4 AFFO per share was $0.337, slightly down year-over-year due to higher maintenance CapEx timing and additional maintenance spend related to acquired LTC homes; maintenance CapEx moderated reported earnings despite underlying improvement (ex-items AFFO up 6%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $45.6 million, an increase of 36.4% year-over-year (after adjusting for out-of-period items); consolidated Q4 NOI improved by $14.3 million or 30.2% (ex-out-of-period).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance emphasized an expected early‑Q2 close of the $570M CBI Home Health acquisition (adding ~10 million hours, ~8,500 team members, an estimated $478M of revenue and $61.9M of pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA; 9% EPS accretive at close, rising to 15% with $7.4M of synergies) and completion of Closing the Gap integration by Q3; financing plans include a $200M bought‑deal (net $191.5M), a $214.5M upsizing of senior secured facilities (incremental $154.5M delayed‑draw + $60M revolver), planned draws of ~$154.5M (delayed draw) and ~ $154M on the revolver plus cash on hand of $348M, yielding pro‑forma total debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.7–2.9x (based on previously disclosed pro‑forma adj. EBITDA). Operational expectations include home‑health margin expansion toward a 13%+ target (Q4 excl. items 13.2%, normalized 2025 at 12.8%) with continued elevated organic volume growth (15.3% Q4), managed‑services NOI margins in the 50–55% target range (Q4 55.5%), LTC NOI margin and occupancy at 10.9% and 98% respectively, AFFO per basic share excl. out‑of‑period +6% to $0.301 (Q4 AFFO $0.337), payout ratios of 42% (Q4) and 46% (FY) and a 5% dividend increase to $0.0441/month; cash tax guidance for 2026 is ~24–27% of pretax FFO.Extendicare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.75B | 1.66B | 1.47B | 1.30B | 1.22B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 553.60M | 199.59M | 168.00M | 167.62M | 76.83M | 115.61M |
| EBITDA | 205.13M | 175.61M | 155.27M | 98.63M | 48.90M | 67.46M |
| Net Income | 122.36M | 96.66M | 75.21M | 33.98M | 69.55M | 11.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.07B | 1.07B | 719.79M | 672.73M | 781.58M | 900.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 322.27M | 349.18M | 121.85M | 75.91M | 167.28M | 104.63M |
| Total Debt | 324.56M | 342.93M | 292.49M | 334.52M | 383.97M | 536.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 678.09M | 693.14M | 595.44M | 584.81M | 680.88M | 798.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 393.16M | 373.37M | 124.35M | 87.92M | 100.70M | 101.92M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.25M | 63.40M | 101.69M | -106.13M | -2.76M | -6.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.17M | 165.21M | 143.64M | 23.28M | 98.87M | 59.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -109.74M | -119.02M | -9.11M | -84.45M | 155.64M | -59.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 178.26M | 180.43M | -87.87M | -30.93M | -191.86M | -74.84M |
Extendicare Technical Analysis
Positive
29.10
Price Trends
28.69
Positive
26.03
Positive
21.04
Positive
Market Momentum
1.39
Negative
73.53
Negative
63.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.83, above the 50-day MA of 28.69, and above the 200-day MA of 21.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EXE.
Extendicare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$306.25M | 6.82 | 27.57% | 2.35% | -0.15% | -50.57% | |
69 Neutral | C$3.16B | 15.41 | 45.35% | 2.28% | 18.81% | 50.80% | |
64 Neutral | C$218.14M | 50.45 | 27.47% | 1.03% | 2.20% | ― | |
62 Neutral | C$2.20B | 32.90 | 6.44% | 4.47% | 16.69% | 11.12% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TSE:EXE
Extendicare
34.30
20.31
145.14%
TSE:CRRX
CareRx
3.59
0.82
29.42%
TSE:SIA
Sienna Senior Living
22.27
5.19
30.40%
TSE:DR
Medical Facilities
17.48
2.44
16.18%
Extendicare Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Extendicare Declares April 2026 Monthly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
Extendicare Inc. has declared a cash dividend of C$0.0441 per common share for April 2026, payable on May 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2026. The payment, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, reflects ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare Raises $450 Million in Debut Investment-Grade Note Offering
Positive
Apr 14, 2026
Extendicare has completed a $450 million inaugural offering of 4.345% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2031, which have been rated BBB with a stable trend by Morningstar DBRS. The company used most of the proceeds to fully repay its term credit ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare launches $450 million inaugural investment-grade notes to strengthen balance sheet
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Extendicare Inc. has priced a $450 million inaugural offering of 4.345% senior unsecured notes due April 14, 2031, assigned a provisional BBB rating with a stable trend by Morningstar DBRS. The company plans to use the net proceeds primarily to re...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Extendicare Sets Date for Q1 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Apr 6, 2026
Extendicare Inc., a major Canadian seniors’ care operator with 99 long-term care homes and extensive home health and group purchasing operations, continues to position itself as a key player in serving the country’s growing aging popul...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare’s ParaMed Closes $570 Million Acquisition of CBI Home Health
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Extendicare’s ParaMed subsidiary has completed the acquisition of CBI Home Health from CBI Health LP and related entities, in a cash deal valued at $570 million plus approximately $13.6 million in lease liabilities. The transaction was finan...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Extendicare refreshes board as it deepens shift to health services
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Extendicare has announced proposed changes to its board, nominating Josh Blair and Leslee Thompson as new directors ahead of its April 16 annual shareholder meeting, while long-serving board members and key committee chairs Alan Torrie and Donna K...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Extendicare Declares March 2026 Dividend, Signals Confidence in Senior-Care Operations
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
Extendicare Inc., a major player in Canada’s seniors-care sector, operates long-term care homes, extensive home health services and a group purchasing network that serves care facilities nationwide. Its diversified service lines and sizeable...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Extendicare boosts earnings, raises dividend and doubles down on home health with $570 million CBI deal
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Extendicare reported a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA excluding out-of-period items rising 36.4% to $45.6 million, driven by 27.3% growth in home health care volumes and contributions from recent acquisitions, including...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Extendicare declares February 2026 monthly dividend of C$0.042 per share
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Extendicare Inc., a major Canadian provider of senior care services, operates 99 long-term care homes, extensive home health care operations and a large group purchasing network serving facilities across the country. Its diversified platform spans...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.