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Rubicon Organics Inc (TSE:ROMJ)
:ROMJ

Rubicon Organics (ROMJ) AI Stock Analysis

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Rubicon Organics

(OTC:ROMJ)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.50
▲(11.11%Upside)
Rubicon Organics exhibits strong growth potential with substantial revenue increases and strategic expansions. However, ongoing profitability and cash flow challenges limit the overall score. Positive technical indicators and corporate events provide a supportive outlook, yet valuation concerns remain due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Acquisition
The Hope facility acquisition is expected to close soon, with plans to secure the license and begin capital improvements.
Revenue Forecast
Next year is shaping up to be a very strong year with strong revenue and EBITDA growth with the addition of the Hope facility.
Revenue Growth
Rubicon reported Q1/25 revenue of $12.4M, an increase of 39.2% year-over-year.
Negative Factors
EBITDA Pressure
Investments are expected to pressure EBITDA on a short-term basis.
Operating Costs
Increased operating costs will impact EBITDA this year ahead of any revenue contribution.

Rubicon Organics (ROMJ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Rubicon Organics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRubicon Organics Inc. produces and sells organic cannabis for the recreational and medical-use markets in Canada. The company processes and sells organic cannabis under its wholly owned and other licensed brands. Rubicon Organics Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyRubicon Organics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its premium organic cannabis products. The company cultivates and processes its cannabis plants in-house, ensuring quality control and organic certification, which allows them to command premium pricing in the market. Revenue streams include wholesale distribution to licensed retailers, direct-to-consumer sales through its brand portfolio, and potential licensing agreements. Rubicon Organics also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Additionally, the company's focus on organic products appeals to a growing segment of health-conscious consumers, contributing to its earnings.

Rubicon Organics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 27, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Rubicon Organics reported strong revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA, supported by successful product launches and strategic expansions. However, the company faces operational cost challenges and market share pressures in certain segments. Overall, the positive developments slightly outweigh the challenges faced.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Rubicon Organics achieved net revenue of $12.4 million in Q1 2025, a 39% increase year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Canada's largest provinces.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
The company reported positive adjusted EBITDA of $700,000, marking a $1.1 million improvement compared to the same period in 2024.
Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions
Rubicon Organics entered into an agreement to acquire a new facility in Hope, BC, expanding annual production capacity by over 40% to 15,500 kilos.
Successful Product Launches
Introduction of new products like BC Organic Pink Drip and Homestead Edibles, and the expansion of the vape line to eight SKUs, capturing nearly 15% of the segment.
Improved Gross Margin
Gross margin improved to 31% in Q1 2025, up from 25% in the same quarter last year, indicating operational efficiencies.
Strong Market Positioning
Rubicon maintains a market leader position in the Topical category and continues to expand its presence in premium edibles and vapes.
Negative Updates
Operational Cost Challenges
Significant start-up operational costs of over $3 million associated with the Hope facility, with revenues not expected until 2026.
Market Share Loss in Topicals
Despite market leadership, Rubicon experienced some share loss in the Topical category due to competitors entering with lower-priced SKUs.
Capital Market Volatility
Despite a successful upsized offering, the company faced significant volatility in the capital markets.
Company Guidance
During the Rubicon Organics Q1 2025 earnings call, key financial metrics were highlighted, including a 39% year-over-year increase in net revenue to $12.4 million and a positive adjusted EBITDA of $700,000, marking a $1.1 million improvement from the same period in 2024. The company's gross profit before fair value adjustments was $3.8 million, a 72% improvement from Q1 2024, with a gross margin increase from 25% to 31%. Additionally, Rubicon secured a non-brokered life offering, upsized by 50% to $4.5 million, and expanded its annual production capacity by over 40% to 15,500 kilos through the acquisition of a new facility in Hope, BC. The company's revenue growth was fueled by strong performances in Canada's largest provinces, notably with its resin vape line capturing nearly 15% of the segment. Rubicon's strategy involves expanding its product offerings, optimizing its brand strength, and exploring international markets, with a focus on long-term growth and financial health.

Rubicon Organics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rubicon Organics shows strong revenue growth and potential profitability with positive EBITDA margins. However, the company faces challenges with net losses and negative free cash flow, impacting its overall financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Rubicon Organics has shown substantial revenue growth over the years, with a growth rate of approximately 21.4% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved slightly to 31.7% in 2024. However, the company is still experiencing net losses, reflected by a negative net profit margin of -5.3% and a negative EBIT margin. Despite this, the EBITDA margin is positive at 3.8%, indicating potential for future profitability.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The company maintains a moderate level of debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is strong at 66.1%, indicating a healthy proportion of equity financing. However, return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses, which is a concern for investors seeking immediate profitability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow has improved, but free cash flow growth has been negative, decreasing by approximately 24.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective cash generation relative to reported losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains below one, highlighting challenges in generating positive free cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue48.70M40.12M35.52M22.61M9.39M
Gross Profit15.42M13.14M13.81M1.51M-663.96K
EBITDA1.86M1.95M217.00K-10.87M-10.37M
Net Income-2.56M-1.82M-3.86M-14.52M-14.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets56.61M54.89M56.11M54.84M51.07M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.86M10.91M8.29M11.58M12.14M
Total Debt9.89M10.40M10.22M9.82M13.99M
Total Liabilities19.21M17.00M17.77M15.94M22.23M
Stockholders Equity37.40M37.89M38.33M38.90M28.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.85M2.47M-2.50M-15.94M-20.30M
Operating Cash Flow3.40M5.05M1.95M-10.44M-14.31M
Investing Cash Flow-1.55M-2.73M-4.45M-5.50M3.08M
Financing Cash Flow-1.77M-804.01K-838.56K15.30M21.26M

Rubicon Organics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.45
Price Trends
50DMA
0.43
Positive
100DMA
0.45
Positive
200DMA
0.42
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
60.20
Neutral
STOCH
85.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ROMJ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.42, above the 50-day MA of 0.43, and above the 200-day MA of 0.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ROMJ.

Rubicon Organics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$29.14M-2.68%29.78%68.83%
51
Neutral
$7.55B0.30-61.90%2.27%17.11%1.58%
$29.72M3.2720.78%
$20.83M-12.58%
$30.08M-24.12%
$22.24M-203.40%
44
Neutral
C$32.88M-31.24%44.21%21.93%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ROMJ
Rubicon Organics
0.45
-0.02
-3.23%
DBCCF
Decibel Cannabis Company
0.06
<0.01
20.00%
CXXIF
C21 Investments
0.16
-0.09
-36.00%
VEXTF
Vext Science
0.13
-0.03
-18.75%
AVCNF
Avicanna
0.20
-0.05
-20.00%
TSE:GWAY
Greenway Greenhouse Cannabis Corp.
0.25
-0.02
-7.41%

Rubicon Organics Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Expands Product Line with New All-in-One Resin Vapes
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

Rubicon Organics has launched its new 1964 Supply Co.™ All-in-One Full Spectrum Extract Resin Vapes in Canada, expanding its premium cannabis product offerings. This launch marks a strategic step in Rubicon’s growth plan, aiming to attract consumers from the legacy market by offering high-quality, full-spectrum products at competitive prices, setting a new standard in a segment dominated by distillate-based products.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ROMJ) stock is a Buy with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rubicon Organics stock, see the TSE:ROMJ Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Expands Premium Cannabis Production with New Facility Acquisition
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

Rubicon Organics has acquired a 47,500 sq. ft. indoor cultivation facility in Hope, British Columbia, marking a significant step in its strategy to expand premium cannabis production. This acquisition is expected to increase the company’s production capacity by over 40%, supporting its growth in both domestic and international markets. The facility is anticipated to reach full production capacity by the end of 2026, with revenue contributions expected in the first half of 2026. This move strengthens Rubicon’s leadership in the premium cannabis segment and aligns with its focus on innovation and international expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ROMJ) stock is a Buy with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rubicon Organics stock, see the TSE:ROMJ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rubicon Organics Reports Strong Q1 2025 Growth and Strategic Expansion
Positive
May 28, 2025

Rubicon Organics reported a strong Q1 2025 with a 39.2% increase in net revenue to $12.4 million and a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $0.7 million. The company removed conditions for the acquisition of the Hope Facility, which will expand production capacity by 40%, and completed a $4.5 million private placement to support future growth. With a national market share in various cannabis categories and international certification, Rubicon is well-positioned for long-term growth and expansion in both domestic and export markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ROMJ) stock is a Buy with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rubicon Organics stock, see the TSE:ROMJ Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Advances Growth with Hope Facility Acquisition
Positive
May 22, 2025

Rubicon Organics has cleared all conditions for acquiring the Hope Facility, a 47,500 square foot indoor cultivation site in Hope, British Columbia, from Medipharm Labs Inc. This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Rubicon Organics’ production capacity, enabling the company to meet increasing demand for its premium cannabis products and support its growth strategy. The company anticipates closing the acquisition in the second quarter and expects the first harvests by the end of 2025, with revenue realization in early 2026. This strategic move is seen as pivotal for Rubicon Organics in accelerating innovation and driving long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ROMJ) stock is a Buy with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rubicon Organics stock, see the TSE:ROMJ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rubicon Organics to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Rubicon Organics Inc. announced it will release its Q1 2025 financial results on May 27, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 28, 2025. This announcement is part of Rubicon’s strategy to maintain transparency with stakeholders and highlights its commitment to achieving industry-leading profitability through its premium cannabis offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ROMJ) stock is a Buy with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rubicon Organics stock, see the TSE:ROMJ Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Appoints Glen Ibbott as Interim CFO Amid Strategic Expansion
Neutral
May 15, 2025

Rubicon Organics has appointed Glen Ibbott as its Interim CFO, following the departure of Janis Risbin from her full-time role. Ibbott, a seasoned financial executive with extensive experience in the cannabis industry, previously served as CFO at Aurora Cannabis, where he contributed to the company’s rapid growth and international expansion. His appointment comes at a strategic time for Rubicon Organics as it scales new capacity and explores new markets for its premium cannabis brands. The company is also initiating a search for a permanent CFO, emphasizing the need for a leader with deep financial expertise and a strong understanding of the cannabis industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ROMJ) stock is a Buy with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rubicon Organics stock, see the TSE:ROMJ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Secures $4.5 Million in Private Placement to Boost Operations
Positive
May 7, 2025

Rubicon Organics Inc. has successfully closed a non-brokered private placement offering, raising approximately $4.5 million. The proceeds will be used for the start-up and acquisition costs of a new facility in Hope, B.C., as well as for pre-roll automation, other capital investments, and general working capital. The participation of the company’s Board of Directors in the offering is considered a related party transaction but falls within regulatory exemptions. This move is expected to strengthen Rubicon’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Expands Private Placement to Fuel Growth
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Rubicon Organics Inc. has announced an increase in its non-brokered private placement offering from $3,000,000 to $4,500,000 due to strong market demand. The additional capital will be used for the start-up and acquisition costs of a new facility in Hope, BC, as well as pre-roll automation and other capital investments, aiming to accelerate the company’s growth initiatives and strengthen its position in the Canadian premium cannabis market.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics Launches $3 Million Private Placement to Fuel Expansion
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

Rubicon Organics Inc. has announced a non-brokered private placement offering to raise up to $3 million through the sale of 6,818,182 units, each consisting of a common share and a warrant. The funds will be used for the start-up costs of a new facility in Hope, BC, pre-roll automation, and other capital investments. The offering is expected to close by April 28, 2025, and aims to capitalize on the growing demand for quality cannabis in the Canadian market, allowing Rubicon Organics to pursue new growth opportunities and scale its operations.

Business Operations and Strategy
Rubicon Organics to Participate in Key Industry Events in Las Vegas and Berlin
Positive
Apr 11, 2025

Rubicon Organics has announced its participation in two significant industry events: the Planet MicroCap Showcase in Las Vegas and the International Cannabis Business Conference in Berlin. These events will provide the company with opportunities to present its business strategies and engage with investors and industry experts, potentially enhancing its market presence and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025