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RB Global (TSE:RBA)
TSX:RBA
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RB Global
(TSX:RBA)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$158.00
â–²(12.17% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (scaled revenue base, positive earnings, and strong free cash flow) and supportive earnings-call guidance for continued GTV/EBITDA growth. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum and a demanding valuation (high P/E), with rising leverage and margin compression as key fundamental watch items.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent near‑billion operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. Over the medium term this supports debt service, targeted tuck‑ins, disciplined capex, dividends and potential buybacks without relying on external funding.
Revenue scale & diversification
Multi‑year revenue scaling reflects expanding marketplace footprint and diversified monetization (transaction fees, subscriptions, services). Larger scale strengthens network effects, recurring service revenue and bargaining power with OEMs and dealers, underpinning stable medium‑term growth.
Commercial wins & product innovation
Long‑term contracts, a strong RFP pipeline and AI/digital product rollouts increase customer stickiness and operational efficiency. These structural improvements support take‑rate stability, incremental EBITDA conversion and defensible market share over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Material leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to revenue shocks. Higher debt limits discretionary capital allocation, raises interest expense sensitivity, and constrains ability to execute opportunistic M&A or buybacks during a downturn.
Margin compression
Sustained margin erosion implies structural mix shifts or higher unit costs as scale increased. If margins remain meaningfully below historical peaks, incremental revenue must be larger to drive same profit dollars, making earnings more sensitive to take‑rate or cost pressure.
Cyclical exposure & take‑rate risk
Exposure to cyclical segments (CC&T) and bankruptcy-related disruptions raises volatility in GTV and unit economics. Management's willingness to accept short‑term take‑rate pressure to capture volume increases medium‑term margin and revenue mix risk.
RB Global (RBA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$25.53B
Dividend Yield1.16%
Average Volume (3M)307.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)43.8
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth11.26%
EPS Growth17.45%
CountryCA
Employees7,900
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.52
Shares Outstanding185,900,000
10 Day Avg. Volume346,197
30 Day Avg. Volume307,910
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio14.81
Price to Book (P/B)3.16
Price to Sales (P/S)4.08
P/FCF Ratio26.07
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$186.95Price Target Upside32.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)5.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.52B
RB Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRB Global, Inc., an omnichannel marketplace, provides insights, services, and transaction solutions for buyers and sellers of commercial assets and vehicles worldwide. Its marketplace brands include Ritchie Bros., an auctioneer of commercial assets and vehicles offering online bidding; IAA, a digital marketplace connecting vehicle buyers and sellers; Rouse Services, which provides asset management, data-driven intelligence, and performance benchmarking system; SmartEquip, a technology platform that supports customers' management of the equipment lifecycle; Xcira that provides live simulcast auction technologies; and Veritread, an online marketplace for heavy haul transport solution. The company serves customers across various asset classes, including automotive, commercial transportation, construction, government surplus, lifting and material handling, energy, mining, and agriculture. RB Global, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Westchester, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyRB Global generates revenue primarily through transaction fees collected from vehicle sales facilitated on its platforms. This includes fees from both sellers who list their vehicles for auction and buyers who purchase them. Additionally, RBA earns income from subscription services that provide dealerships and other businesses with access to its data analytics and inventory management tools. Significant partnerships with automotive manufacturers, dealerships, and financial institutions further enhance its revenue streams by broadening the customer base and increasing transaction volumes. Furthermore, RBA may benefit from ancillary services such as vehicle inspections, shipping logistics, and financing options, which contribute additional sources of income.
RB Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized disciplined execution, margin expansion, product innovation and tangible commercial wins (renewals and pipeline), supported by clear 2026 guidance for mid-single-digit GTV growth and low-double-digit EBITDA growth. Headwinds include modest full-year GTV growth, sector cyclicality (notably CC&T and a bankruptcy impact), potential pressure on take rates for select contracts, and comparability noise from prior-year catastrophes. Overall, positive operational momentum and multiple strategic initiatives outweigh the near-term and cyclical challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 10% in the fourth quarter and 7% for the full year; adjusted EBITDA margin (as a percent of GTV) expanded to 8.9% from 8.4% year-over-year, reflecting operating leverage and tight cost management.
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) Growth and 2026 Outlook
Total GTV increased 4% in the fourth quarter and 2% for the full year. Management guided 2026 GTV growth of 5% to 8%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA expected between $1.47 billion and $1.53 billion (≈7% growth at the midpoint).
Automotive Segment Momentum
Automotive GTV rose 3% in Q4 with unit volumes up 2% in the quarter; excluding 2024 catastrophic activity, automotive GTV and unit volumes grew approximately 12% and 8% year-over-year, respectively. Management reported outpacing the market for the fourth consecutive quarter and exceeded all Q4 service-level commitments.
Commercial Construction & Transportation (CC&T) Recovery Signs
CC&T GTV increased 9% in Q4; excluding the Yellow Corporation bankruptcy impact, CC&T GTV and unit volumes grew ~10% and ~9% year-over-year, with early signs of improving seller confidence and stabilizing used equipment values.
Service Revenue and Take Rate Improvement
Service revenue increased 5% in the quarter and 4% for the full year. Service revenue take rate rose by ~10 basis points year-over-year to 21.4%, driven primarily by a higher average buyer fee rate.
Average Selling Price and Salvage Value Improvements
Gross returns/salvage values as a percentage of pre-accident cash values expanded and supported approximately 7% year-over-year growth in the U.S. insurance average selling price. Average price per vehicle sold increased ~1% in the quarter (≈4% excluding catastrophic impacts).
New Contracts, Partnership Renewals and Pipeline Strength
Signed a new multiyear agreement with one of its two largest partners and reached an agreement in principle with the other, providing long-term visibility. Management highlighted a strong RFP pipeline with opportunities to win share from organizations with no current relationship.
Product, Digital and AI Innovations
Introduced new website features (guaranteed-to-sell indicators, localized content), launched a reserved auction format internationally, rolled out an AI-enabled role-plan training tool for territory managers, and plan an upstream rollout of the IAA total loss predictor in 2026 to support dynamic vehicle routing and cost savings.
Strong Cash Generation and Capital Discipline
Management referenced nearly $1 billion of cash from operations for the year (as discussed on the call) and ended the quarter with net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of ~1.4x. 2026 CapEx guidance of $350 million to $400 million with a 2/3 PP&E and 1/3 technology mix.
Negative Updates
Modest Full-Year GTV Growth
While Q4 showed improvement, full year total GTV grew only 2%, indicating that growth was uneven across the year and some sectors faced headwinds.
Cyclical Pressure in CC&T and Bankruptcy Headwinds
Commercial construction & transportation faced cyclical pressure during the year; results were impacted by the Yellow Corporation bankruptcy, complicating comparables and mix dynamics.
Take-Rate and Unit Economics Pressure Risks
Management cautioned that certain contracts (e.g., GSA/Australia arrangements) could put modest pressure on take rates; they expect to accept some short-term take-rate pressure to capture volume and market share.
Comparability Issues from 2024 Catastrophic Events
Strong prior-year catastrophic activity in 2024 elevated comparables, making year-over-year comparisons more challenging; several metrics (e.g., excluding catastrophics) materially differ from reported GAAP figures.
Narrowing Repair vs. Used-Vehicle Inflation Spread
The inflation differential between automotive repair costs and used vehicle pricing narrowed through 2025 (though remained positive in Q4), affecting total loss dynamics and creating some uncertainty around future total-loss frequency trends.
Uncertainty Around Long-Term Disruption from AI/Tech
Management sees AI as an enabler but acknowledged uncertainty and industry discussion about potential long-term impacts (e.g., changes to cycle times or real estate needs). While they view near-term disruption risk as low, the topic remains a potential longer-term risk.
Company Guidance
RB Global guided 2026 GTV growth of 5–8% and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $1.47–$1.53 billion (≈7% growth at the midpoint), expecting volume‑led service‑revenue growth and continued market‑share gains; management also forecast full‑year CapEx of $350–$400 million and a GAAP and adjusted tax rate of 23–25%, and said it will convert incremental volume to EBITDA through operational excellence. For context, Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 8.9% (from 8.4% prior year), the service‑revenue take rate was ~21.4%, full‑year 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose ~7% (adjusted EPS +15%), the company generated nearly $1.0 billion of operating cash flow in 2025 and finished the quarter at ~1.4x net debt‑to‑adjusted EBITDA—metrics management cited as informing capital allocation (debt paydown, capex, tuck‑ins, dividends and possible share‑repurchase authorization).RB Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year revenue scaling and solid 2025 profitability, supported by healthy operating cash flow (~$995M) and free cash flow (~$732M). Offsets include meaningful margin compression versus earlier years and rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.91), which reduces flexibility.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded materially over the last several years (from ~$1.38B in 2020 to ~$4.67B in 2025), supporting a larger earnings base. Profitability is solid in 2025 with ~35.8% gross margin and ~17.7% EBIT margin, and net income remains positive (~$436M). Offsetting this, margins have compressed versus earlier years (gross margin down from ~55–58% in 2020–2022 to ~36% in 2025), and net margin is now in the high-single-digits (~9.3%), suggesting a less favorable mix and/or higher cost structure as the business scaled.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows sizable scale (assets ~$12.1B in 2025) and moderate shareholder returns (return on equity ~7.2% in 2025, similar to 2024 but well below 2022). Leverage is meaningful: debt is ~$5.50B against equity of ~$6.04B (debt-to-equity ~0.91), and debt has increased from 2024, reducing flexibility versus a lower-leverage profile. Overall, equity remains solidly positive, but the rising debt load is the key watch item.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is healthy, with 2025 operating cash flow of ~$995M and free cash flow of ~$732M, and free cash flow growth accelerating in 2025. Free cash flow is a meaningful share of net income (about three-quarters in 2025), supporting reinvestment, debt service, and capital returns. The main weakness is that operating cash flow is not consistently strong relative to reported earnings (operating cash flow to net income ~0.62 in 2025), indicating some earnings-to-cash conversion variability.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.67B | 4.28B | 3.68B | 1.73B | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.67B | 2.02B | 1.79B | 967.00M | 822.70M |
| EBITDA | 1.48B | 1.23B | 1.03B | 417.20M | 357.70M |
| Net Income | 435.90M | 413.10M | 206.50M | 319.70M | 151.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.12B | 11.81B | 12.04B | 2.86B | 3.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 693.54M | 533.90M | 576.20M | 494.30M | 326.11M |
| Total Debt | 5.50B | 4.56B | 4.77B | 759.80M | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.06B | 6.09B | 6.53B | 1.57B | 2.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.04B | 5.71B | 5.50B | 1.29B | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 731.79M | 727.60M | 447.74M | 430.80M | 302.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 995.32M | 886.97M | 679.34M | 461.82M | 312.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -562.58M | -287.12M | -3.16B | 75.03M | -210.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -469.48M | -614.22M | 2.72B | -1.22B | 944.77M |
RB Global Technical Analysis
Negative
140.86
Price Trends
148.73
Negative
144.09
Negative
147.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.97
Positive
45.27
Neutral
45.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:RBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 140.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.74, below the 50-day MA of 148.73, and below the 200-day MA of 147.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:RBA.
RB Global Risk Analysis
RB Global disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RB Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Combining the businesses of Ritchie Bros. and IAA may be more difficult, costly or time-consuming than expected, and we may fail to realize the anticipated benefits of the acquisition, which may adversely affect our business results and negatively affect the value of our common shares. Q1, 2023
2.
We may be unable to realize the anticipated cost synergies and other opportunities expected from the acquisition of IAA, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q1, 2023
3.
Completion of the acquisition may trigger change in control, assignment or other provisions in certain agreements to which IAA is a party, which may have an adverse impact on the Company's business and results of operations. Q1, 2023
RB Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
TSE:RBA
RB Global
140.86
-0.09
-0.06%
TSE:TRI
Thomson Reuters
142.92
-102.93
-41.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.