Pollard Banknote (TSE:PBL)
TSX:PBL
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Pollard Banknote
(TSX:PBL)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
C$16.50
▼(-9.59% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is supported by improving recent cash flow and a generally manageable leverage profile, but is held back by the sharp TTM revenue decline and earnings volatility. Technicals are notably weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD and very low RSI/Stoch), and valuation is not particularly compelling at a ~28.5 P/E with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
PBL's recent trend of materially improving operating cash flow and sharply higher TTM free cash flow indicates durable internal funding capacity. Strong cash generation supports reinvestment in product development, funds contract delivery, and provides a buffer for cyclicality in lottery volumes over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Recent revenue decline
A marked TTM revenue decline undermines structural revenue predictability for a contract-driven supplier. Persistent top-line weakness can reduce pricing leverage in renewals, constrain working capital, and limit investments in product innovation, raising medium-term growth and competitiveness concerns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
PBL's recent trend of materially improving operating cash flow and sharply higher TTM free cash flow indicates durable internal funding capacity. Strong cash generation supports reinvestment in product development, funds contract delivery, and provides a buffer for cyclicality in lottery volumes over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Pollard Banknote (PBL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$443.91M
Dividend Yield1.03%
Average Volume (3M)19.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.9
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth2.38%
EPS Growth-33.90%
CountryCA
Employees2,470
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.98
Shares Outstanding27,067,669
10 Day Avg. Volume26,820
30 Day Avg. Volume19,937
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-9.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.88
P/FCF Ratio9.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$30.83Price Target Upside68.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$633.71M
Pollard Banknote Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of gaming products and services for the lottery and charitable gaming industries worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Lotteries and Charitabl...
How the Company Makes Money
PBL makes money primarily by selling lottery-related products and services to lottery operators (typically government-run or government-authorized agencies). Key revenue streams include: (1) Instant ticket (scratch ticket) revenue: PBL earns reven...
Pollard Banknote Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as major contract wins in Belgium and California, and record sales figures. However, these were offset by decreases in gross profit and net income, largely due to start-up costs and regulatory impacts. The sentiment reflects a positive strategic positioning but current financial challenges.Positive Updates
Belgium Lottery Contract Win
Pollard Banknote won a 12-year contract valued at CAD 289 million with the Belgium National Lottery, replacing a long-time incumbent provider.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit Decrease
Gross profit decreased to $28.1 million (18.0% of sales) from $31.4 million (20.5% of sales) in Q3 2024, due to Kansas iLottery start-up losses and lower eTAB sales margins.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Belgium Lottery Contract Win
Pollard Banknote won a 12-year contract valued at CAD 289 million with the Belgium National Lottery, replacing a long-time incumbent provider.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Pollard Banknote Limited achieved significant milestones, highlighted by key contract wins in Belgium and California, which contributed to their financial performance. The company secured a 12-year contract with the National Lottery of Belgium valued at approximately CAD 289 million to deliver an omnichannel gaming platform. Additionally, they were named the primary contractor for California's instant ticket products, a contract valued at CAD 375 million over 12 years. Despite a slight decrease in gross profit to $28.1 million, or 18.0% of sales, the company reported record traditional GAAP sales of $156.3 million and combined sales, including their NeoPollard joint venture, of $187.3 million. The quarter also saw an increase in administrative expenses to $19.2 million, primarily due to an ERP implementation and acquisition-related costs. Net income decreased to $10.3 million compared to $18.2 million in the previous year, largely impacted by start-up losses from their Kansas iLottery operation and regulatory changes affecting eTAB sales in Minnesota. However, their NeoPollard joint venture income increased to $15.3 million, driven by strong e-instant sales in North Carolina and Virginia. Overall, the quarter was marked by strategic wins and ongoing investments in innovative gaming solutions.Pollard Banknote Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 591.43M | 596.02M | 557.10M | 520.44M | 482.28M | 459.01M |
| Gross Profit | 90.93M | 77.00M | 104.72M | 86.58M | 81.82M | 91.10M |
| EBITDA | 54.67M | 49.92M | 106.66M | 93.05M | 71.46M | 71.65M |
| Net Income | 26.42M | 34.65M | 35.20M | 31.42M | 19.28M | 19.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 691.79M | 695.89M | 636.31M | 515.71M | 499.27M | 461.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 50.40M | 68.71M | 22.36M | 8.41M | 1.48M | 3.52M |
| Total Debt | 170.07M | 173.01M | 168.52M | 137.23M | 135.28M | 131.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 315.29M | 322.49M | 302.17M | 240.91M | 247.33M | 254.45M |
| Stockholders Equity | 376.50M | 373.40M | 334.13M | 274.80M | 251.93M | 206.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 75.57M | 56.66M | 19.92M | 26.53M | -2.82M | 21.71M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 112.03M | 83.33M | 73.90M | 64.63M | 30.40M | 56.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.35M | -73.60M | -77.19M | -52.09M | -24.57M | -60.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.48M | -2.51M | 16.81M | -10.94M | -7.73M | 6.37M |
Pollard Banknote Technical Analysis
Negative
18.25
Price Trends
17.94
Negative
18.66
Negative
19.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Positive
29.31
Positive
21.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PBL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.62, above the 50-day MA of 17.94, and below the 200-day MA of 19.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.31 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PBL.
Pollard Banknote Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$607.43M | 22.54 | 10.48% | 1.50% | 2.68% | 49.77% | |
75 Outperform | C$279.59M | 22.10 | 18.49% | 5.06% | 1.35% | -3.12% | |
65 Neutral | C$368.42M | 67.12 | 5.50% | ― | 24.65% | -28.30% | |
64 Neutral | C$520.77M | 41.84 | 17.19% | ― | -12.68% | 22.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | C$443.91M | 34.91 | 7.15% | 1.03% | 2.38% | -33.90% | |
46 Neutral | C$497.04M | 24.24 | 5.29% | ― | -6.30% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
16.10
-2.31
-12.57%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.