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Pollard Banknote (TSE:PBL)
TSX:PBL
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Pollard Banknote (PBL) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:PBL

Pollard Banknote

(TSX:PBL)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$19.50
▼(-1.71% Downside)
Pollard Banknote's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic contract wins, which are offset by technical weaknesses and cash flow challenges. The stock's bearish technical indicators and moderate valuation suggest caution, while the earnings call highlights both strategic opportunities and current financial pressures.
Positive Factors
Strategic Contract Wins
Securing long-term contracts in Belgium and California enhances Pollard Banknote's market position and revenue stability, supporting sustained growth.
Record Sales
Record sales figures indicate strong demand and effective market strategies, reinforcing Pollard Banknote's competitive position in the gaming industry.
Joint Venture Growth
Growth in the NeoPollard joint venture highlights successful product offerings and market expansion, contributing positively to long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Decreased Gross Profit
A decline in gross profit margins suggests cost pressures and challenges in maintaining profitability, which could affect future earnings.
Net Income Decline
A significant drop in net income reflects increased expenses and regulatory impacts, potentially hindering financial performance and investor confidence.
Regulatory Challenges
Regulatory changes in key markets like Minnesota can disrupt revenue streams and require strategic adjustments, posing risks to sustained growth.

Pollard Banknote (PBL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Pollard Banknote Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of gaming products and services for the lottery and charitable gaming industries worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Lotteries and Charitable Gaming, and eGaming Systems. It designs, manufactures, and distributes instant tickets, as well as offers related services. The company also offers a range of bingo and bingo-related products; manufactures and sells pull-tab tickets, as well as pull-tab ticket vending machines and pull-tab ticket counting machines. In addition, it provides licensed games; and various solutions for licensed games, such as ticket design and manufacturing, prize structure consultation, merchandise selection and fulfillment, publicity and promotional opportunities, and second chance draw management. Further, the company offers lottery ticket dispensers and point-of-sale displays; charitable gaming machines; and lottery management services and information systems, as well as warehouse and distribution services to lotteries. Additionally, it engages in the interactive digital games and website development; and internet-based gaming businesses. The company was formerly known as 7510101 Canada Limited. Pollard Banknote Limited was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada. Pollard Banknote Limited is a subsidiary of Pollard Equities Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyPollard Banknote generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lottery products, including instant tickets and pull-tabs. The company's revenue model is based on contracts with various lottery organizations, where it earns income through product sales as well as through ongoing service agreements. Key revenue streams include the production and distribution of printed lottery tickets, gaming technology solutions, and consulting services for game design and marketing. Significant partnerships with state and provincial lotteries contribute to its earnings, as PBL works closely with these organizations to develop tailored products that meet their specific needs. Additionally, PBL's commitment to innovation and technology integration helps it capture new business opportunities and expand its market reach.

Pollard Banknote Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as major contract wins in Belgium and California, and record sales figures. However, these were offset by decreases in gross profit and net income, largely due to start-up costs and regulatory impacts. The sentiment reflects a positive strategic positioning but current financial challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Belgium Lottery Contract Win
Pollard Banknote won a 12-year contract valued at CAD 289 million with the Belgium National Lottery, replacing a long-time incumbent provider.
California State Lottery Contract
Pollard Banknote was named the primary contractor for the California State Lottery's instant ticket products, a 12-year contract valued at CAD 375 million.
Record Sales
Achieved record GAAP sales of $156.3 million and combined sales of $187.3 million in Q3 2025, compared to $153.2 million and $180.4 million respectively in Q3 2024.
NeoPollard Joint Venture Growth
NeoPollard joint venture income increased to $15.3 million, up from $13.6 million in the previous year, due to strong e-instant sales in North Carolina and Virginia.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit Decrease
Gross profit decreased to $28.1 million (18.0% of sales) from $31.4 million (20.5% of sales) in Q3 2024, due to Kansas iLottery start-up losses and lower eTAB sales margins.
Net Income Decline
Net income decreased to $10.3 million from $18.2 million in Q3 2024, impacted by lower gross profit, increased administration expenses, and higher costs.
Regulatory Changes in Minnesota
Charitable eTab revenue decreased by $1.1 million due to regulatory changes in the Minnesota market, impacting sales.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Pollard Banknote Limited achieved significant milestones, highlighted by key contract wins in Belgium and California, which contributed to their financial performance. The company secured a 12-year contract with the National Lottery of Belgium valued at approximately CAD 289 million to deliver an omnichannel gaming platform. Additionally, they were named the primary contractor for California's instant ticket products, a contract valued at CAD 375 million over 12 years. Despite a slight decrease in gross profit to $28.1 million, or 18.0% of sales, the company reported record traditional GAAP sales of $156.3 million and combined sales, including their NeoPollard joint venture, of $187.3 million. The quarter also saw an increase in administrative expenses to $19.2 million, primarily due to an ERP implementation and acquisition-related costs. Net income decreased to $10.3 million compared to $18.2 million in the previous year, largely impacted by start-up losses from their Kansas iLottery operation and regulatory changes affecting eTAB sales in Minnesota. However, their NeoPollard joint venture income increased to $15.3 million, driven by strong e-instant sales in North Carolina and Virginia. Overall, the quarter was marked by strategic wins and ongoing investments in innovative gaming solutions.

Pollard Banknote Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pollard Banknote shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability with stable margins and effective equity utilization. However, increased leverage and negative free cash flow highlight potential financial risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Pollard Banknote shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 8.42%, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin is stable around 18.8%, and the net profit margin has improved to 6.92% in TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.62 in TTM, indicating higher leverage but still within manageable levels. Return on equity has improved to 12.16%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Pollard Banknote's operating cash flow has decreased significantly in TTM, leading to a negative free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting operational profitability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue582.48M557.10M520.44M482.28M459.01M414.13M
Gross Profit103.55M104.72M86.58M81.82M91.10M91.05M
EBITDA113.43M106.66M93.05M71.46M71.65M80.86M
Net Income36.15M35.20M31.42M19.28M19.70M33.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets683.51M636.31M515.71M499.27M461.40M404.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments15.66M22.36M8.41M1.48M3.52M1.89M
Total Debt203.65M168.52M137.23M135.28M131.70M148.02M
Total Liabilities327.28M302.17M240.91M247.33M254.45M262.18M
Stockholders Equity356.23M334.13M274.80M251.93M206.96M142.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-17.38M19.92M26.53M-2.82M21.71M40.72M
Operating Cash Flow40.60M73.90M64.63M30.40M56.54M59.65M
Investing Cash Flow-90.59M-77.19M-52.09M-24.57M-60.59M-61.67M
Financing Cash Flow57.95M16.81M-10.94M-7.73M6.37M-3.94M

Pollard Banknote Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price19.84
Price Trends
50DMA
20.98
Negative
100DMA
20.86
Negative
200DMA
20.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.29
Negative
RSI
48.46
Neutral
STOCH
82.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PBL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.53, below the 50-day MA of 20.98, and below the 200-day MA of 20.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:PBL.

Pollard Banknote Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
C$1.70B9.719.36%9.46%-2.90%57.43%
66
Neutral
C$1.61B9.179.36%9.49%-2.90%57.43%
64
Neutral
$245.31M10.436.05%6.19%-3.53%-17.19%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
C$545.68M15.118.11%1.04%6.01%-41.56%
54
Neutral
$735.16M-2.64%2.01%-7.25%-143.07%
38
Underperform
C$579.45M-32.1418.07%-26.93%84.17%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
19.30
-5.45
-22.02%
TSE:XTC
Exco Technologies
6.78
-0.94
-12.13%
TSE:MRE
Martinrea International
9.75
-0.21
-2.07%
TSE:ACQ
AutoCanada
21.08
1.82
9.45%
TSE:TCL.A
Transcontinental
20.02
4.03
25.20%
TSE:TCL.B
Transcontinental Inc. Class B
20.01
3.96
24.67%

Pollard Banknote Corporate Events

Pollard Banknote’s Strategic Wins Amid Financial Challenges
Nov 14, 2025

Pollard Banknote’s recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, showcasing significant strategic achievements alongside current financial hurdles. The company celebrated major contract wins in Belgium and California and reported record sales figures. However, these successes were tempered by decreases in gross profit and net income, attributed to start-up costs and regulatory impacts. The overall sentiment suggests a positive strategic direction but acknowledges existing financial challenges.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pollard Banknote Achieves Record Revenue and Secures Major Contracts in Q3 2025
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

Pollard Banknote Limited reported a record revenue of $156.3 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking a 2% increase from the previous year. The company secured significant contracts, including a 12-year deal with Belgium Lottery and a primary instant ticket contract with the California Lottery, which is expected to boost volumes in 2026. Despite a lower gross margin due to startup losses in Kansas and regulatory changes, the company remains optimistic about future growth, driven by strategic investments and contract wins.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Pollard Banknote Declares Cash Dividend for Q4 2025
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

Pollard Banknote Limited has announced a cash dividend of $0.05 per common share for the period from October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with payment scheduled for January 15, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively influence its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Pollard Banknote to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Oct 9, 2025

Pollard Banknote announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 12, 2025, followed by a conference call on November 13 to discuss the results. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Pollard Banknote Secures Major Contract with Belgium’s National Lottery
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

Pollard Banknote has secured a significant contract with the National Lottery of Belgium to deliver a next-generation omnichannel gaming platform. This 12-year agreement, valued at approximately €177 million, marks a strategic advancement for Pollard Banknote as it deploys its Catalyst™ Gaming Platform for the first time. This platform will enhance the Lottery’s operations across retail and online channels, reinforcing Pollard Banknote’s position as a leader in digital lottery innovation and strengthening its long-standing partnership with Loterie Nationale.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Pollard Banknote Secures Primary Contract with California Lottery
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

Pollard Banknote has been awarded the primary contract to supply Scratchers® products and related services to the California Lottery, marking a significant expansion of their long-standing partnership. This contract, expected to start in December 2025, will see Pollard Banknote providing approximately 70% of the Lottery’s Scratchers games, enhancing the Lottery’s offerings with innovative solutions and supporting its mission to fund California public education.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Pollard Banknote Secures Major Contract with Belgium’s Loterie Nationale
Positive
Sep 18, 2025

Pollard Banknote has been selected by Loterie Nationale of Belgium to provide a comprehensive gaming platform, following a competitive procurement process. The 12-year contract, valued at €177 million, will enhance Pollard Banknote’s presence in the digital gaming sector and expand its existing relationship with the Belgian lottery. This contract underscores Pollard Banknote’s strength in offering end-to-end gaming solutions and is expected to bolster its market position and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
NeoPollard Interactive Extends Partnership with North Carolina Education Lottery
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

NeoPollard Interactive, in partnership with the North Carolina Education Lottery, has extended its contract to provide online play systems and related services until 2028. This renewal includes the implementation of Aristocrat Interactive’s Fusion content aggregation platform to expand game offerings and enhance player support services, reflecting the success of their collaboration in driving significant revenue growth for education in North Carolina.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Pollard Banknote Unveils Innovations at European Lotteries Congress
Positive
Sep 11, 2025

Pollard Banknote announced its participation in the 12th European Lotteries Congress and Trade Show in Bern, Switzerland, where it will showcase its innovative solutions aimed at enhancing player engagement and retail operations. The company will present new products such as Digital Menu Boards, HALO lighting solutions, and the easyVEND in-lane vending system, all designed to improve lottery visibility and market presence. Additionally, Pollard Banknote will highlight its digital innovations, including a growing portfolio of eInstant games and the Omnichannel Gaming Solution powered by the Pollard Catalyst™ Gaming Platform, which supports seamless integration and rapid deployment, underscoring its commitment to meeting the evolving needs of lotteries.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Pollard Banknote Unveils Cutting-Edge Lottery Innovations at NASPL 2025
Positive
Sep 4, 2025

Pollard Banknote showcased its latest innovations at the NASPL 2025 conference, emphasizing its commitment to transforming the lottery industry through innovative games, retail solutions, and digital advancements. The company introduced new products and services designed to boost player engagement and streamline operations, including a modular cloud-based logistics platform and an omnichannel iLottery solution. These innovations are expected to enhance Pollard Banknote’s market position and offer significant benefits to lottery operators by improving sales and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PBL) stock is a Hold with a C$21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pollard Banknote stock, see the TSE:PBL Stock Forecast page.

Pollard Banknote’s Earnings Call: Record Revenues Amid Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

Pollard Banknote’s recent earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment, showcasing a blend of significant achievements and notable challenges. The company reported record revenues and successful integration of acquisitions, alongside strong performance from its joint venture. However, these positives were tempered by a decline in gross profit, instant ticket sales volume, and net income, as well as increased expenses and regulatory hurdles in Minnesota.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025