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Pollard Banknote (TSE:PBL)
TSX:PBL
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Pollard Banknote
(TSX:PBL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$21.00
▲(5.53% Upside)
Pollard Banknote's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic contract wins, despite current financial challenges and bearish technical indicators. The company's fair valuation and modest dividend yield provide some stability, but improving cash flow and addressing regulatory impacts are crucial for future growth.
Positive Factors
Strategic Contract Wins
Securing long-term contracts in Belgium and California enhances revenue visibility and strengthens market position, supporting sustained growth.
Revenue Growth
Record sales figures indicate robust demand and effective market strategies, underpinning the company's expansion and financial health.
Joint Venture Success
Growth in joint venture income, driven by strong e-instant sales, reflects successful partnerships and innovation in digital gaming solutions.
Negative Factors
Declining Margins
Decreasing gross profit margins suggest rising costs or pricing pressures, which could affect long-term profitability if not addressed.
Net Income Decline
A significant drop in net income highlights financial challenges, potentially impacting reinvestment capacity and shareholder returns.
Regulatory Impact
Regulatory changes in Minnesota affecting eTab sales could signal future challenges in adapting to evolving legal environments.
Pollard Banknote (PBL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$541.08M
Dividend Yield1.03%
Average Volume (3M)19.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth6.01%
EPS Growth-41.56%
CountryCA
Employees2,470
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding27,067,669
10 Day Avg. Volume26,820
30 Day Avg. Volume19,937
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.94
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio32.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$33.00Price Target Upside65.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Pollard Banknote Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of gaming products and services for the lottery and charitable gaming industries worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Lotteries and Charitable Gaming, and eGaming Systems. It designs, manufactures, and distributes instant tickets, as well as offers related services. The company also offers a range of bingo and bingo-related products; manufactures and sells pull-tab tickets, as well as pull-tab ticket vending machines and pull-tab ticket counting machines. In addition, it provides licensed games; and various solutions for licensed games, such as ticket design and manufacturing, prize structure consultation, merchandise selection and fulfillment, publicity and promotional opportunities, and second chance draw management. Further, the company offers lottery ticket dispensers and point-of-sale displays; charitable gaming machines; and lottery management services and information systems, as well as warehouse and distribution services to lotteries. Additionally, it engages in the interactive digital games and website development; and internet-based gaming businesses. The company was formerly known as 7510101 Canada Limited. Pollard Banknote Limited was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada. Pollard Banknote Limited is a subsidiary of Pollard Equities Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyPollard Banknote generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lottery products, including instant tickets and pull-tabs. The company's revenue model is based on contracts with various lottery organizations, where it earns income through product sales as well as through ongoing service agreements. Key revenue streams include the production and distribution of printed lottery tickets, gaming technology solutions, and consulting services for game design and marketing. Significant partnerships with state and provincial lotteries contribute to its earnings, as PBL works closely with these organizations to develop tailored products that meet their specific needs. Additionally, PBL's commitment to innovation and technology integration helps it capture new business opportunities and expand its market reach.
Pollard Banknote Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as major contract wins in Belgium and California, and record sales figures. However, these were offset by decreases in gross profit and net income, largely due to start-up costs and regulatory impacts. The sentiment reflects a positive strategic positioning but current financial challenges.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Belgium Lottery Contract Win
Pollard Banknote won a 12-year contract valued at CAD 289 million with the Belgium National Lottery, replacing a long-time incumbent provider.
California State Lottery Contract
Pollard Banknote was named the primary contractor for the California State Lottery's instant ticket products, a 12-year contract valued at CAD 375 million.
Record Sales
Achieved record GAAP sales of $156.3 million and combined sales of $187.3 million in Q3 2025, compared to $153.2 million and $180.4 million respectively in Q3 2024.
NeoPollard Joint Venture Growth
NeoPollard joint venture income increased to $15.3 million, up from $13.6 million in the previous year, due to strong e-instant sales in North Carolina and Virginia.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit Decrease
Gross profit decreased to $28.1 million (18.0% of sales) from $31.4 million (20.5% of sales) in Q3 2024, due to Kansas iLottery start-up losses and lower eTAB sales margins.
Net Income Decline
Net income decreased to $10.3 million from $18.2 million in Q3 2024, impacted by lower gross profit, increased administration expenses, and higher costs.
Regulatory Changes in Minnesota
Charitable eTab revenue decreased by $1.1 million due to regulatory changes in the Minnesota market, impacting sales.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Pollard Banknote Limited achieved significant milestones, highlighted by key contract wins in Belgium and California, which contributed to their financial performance. The company secured a 12-year contract with the National Lottery of Belgium valued at approximately CAD 289 million to deliver an omnichannel gaming platform. Additionally, they were named the primary contractor for California's instant ticket products, a contract valued at CAD 375 million over 12 years. Despite a slight decrease in gross profit to $28.1 million, or 18.0% of sales, the company reported record traditional GAAP sales of $156.3 million and combined sales, including their NeoPollard joint venture, of $187.3 million. The quarter also saw an increase in administrative expenses to $19.2 million, primarily due to an ERP implementation and acquisition-related costs. Net income decreased to $10.3 million compared to $18.2 million in the previous year, largely impacted by start-up losses from their Kansas iLottery operation and regulatory changes affecting eTAB sales in Minnesota. However, their NeoPollard joint venture income increased to $15.3 million, driven by strong e-instant sales in North Carolina and Virginia. Overall, the quarter was marked by strategic wins and ongoing investments in innovative gaming solutions.Pollard Banknote Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Pollard Banknote demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with stable margins and effective equity utilization. However, increased leverage and negative free cash flow in the TTM period highlight potential financial risks. Continued focus on cash flow management and cost control will be crucial for sustaining growth.Income Statement
Pollard Banknote shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 8.42%, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin is stable around 18.8%, and the net profit margin has improved to 6.92% in TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.62 in TTM, indicating higher leverage but still within manageable levels. Return on equity has improved to 12.16%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Pollard Banknote's operating cash flow has decreased significantly in TTM, leading to a negative free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting operational profitability.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 585.52M | 557.10M | 520.44M | 482.28M | 459.01M | 414.13M |
| Gross Profit | 100.60M | 104.72M | 86.58M | 81.82M | 91.10M | 91.05M |
| EBITDA | 92.95M | 106.66M | 93.05M | 71.46M | 71.65M | 80.86M |
| Net Income | 28.28M | 35.20M | 31.42M | 19.28M | 19.70M | 33.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 697.13M | 636.31M | 515.71M | 499.27M | 461.40M | 404.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.56M | 22.36M | 8.41M | 1.48M | 3.52M | 1.89M |
| Total Debt | 194.50M | 168.52M | 137.23M | 135.28M | 131.70M | 148.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 325.20M | 302.17M | 240.91M | 247.33M | 254.45M | 262.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 371.94M | 334.13M | 274.80M | 251.93M | 206.96M | 142.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.51M | 19.92M | 26.53M | -2.82M | 21.71M | 40.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 68.45M | 73.90M | 64.63M | 30.40M | 56.54M | 59.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -73.47M | -77.19M | -52.09M | -24.57M | -60.59M | -61.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.19M | 16.81M | -10.94M | -7.73M | 6.37M | -3.94M |
Pollard Banknote Technical Analysis
Negative
19.90
Price Trends
19.59
Positive
20.29
Negative
20.47
Negative
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
50.88
Neutral
46.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PBL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.81, above the 50-day MA of 19.59, and below the 200-day MA of 20.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PBL.
Pollard Banknote Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$689.55M | 122.17 | 9.68% | ― | 32.31% | ― | |
69 Neutral | C$583.36M | 17.06 | 5.92% | 1.50% | -12.81% | -31.89% | |
68 Neutral | C$245.47M | 11.89 | 18.14% | 5.06% | 1.01% | 6.68% | |
66 Neutral | C$512.98M | 15.45 | 17.19% | ― | -4.02% | 34.29% | |
66 Neutral | C$541.08M | 19.15 | 8.11% | 1.03% | 6.01% | -41.56% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
40 Underperform | C$587.09M | -73.88 | 18.07% | ― | -26.93% | 84.17% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Pollard Banknote
19.90
-6.41
-24.36%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.