Nexus Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:NXR.UN)
TSX:NXR.UN
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Nexus Real Estate Investment
(TSX:NXR.UN)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(2.83% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is anchored by solid—but not top-tier—financial quality due to elevated leverage and inconsistent cash-to-earnings conversion. Valuation is a major positive (low P/E and high yield), while technical signals are currently soft. The earnings call adds support via positive leasing/NOI guidance and development upside, partially offset by deleveraging needs and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Pure-play industrial portfolio
Converting to a near-pure industrial portfolio (≈99% of NOI) aligns the trust with structurally stronger demand and tighter fundamentals in industrial real estate. High sector concentration simplifies asset management, supports predictable rent growth, and reduces cross-sector volatility in NOI and cash flow over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Net debt/EBITDA near 11x leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Achieving mid-9s to reach investment-grade requires sustained disposition or cash generation; failure would constrain acquisitions, raise financing costs, and pressure distributions over several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Pure-play industrial portfolio
Converting to a near-pure industrial portfolio (≈99% of NOI) aligns the trust with structurally stronger demand and tighter fundamentals in industrial real estate. High sector concentration simplifies asset management, supports predictable rent growth, and reduces cross-sector volatility in NOI and cash flow over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Nexus Real Estate Investment (NXR.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$762.02M
Dividend Yield8.07%
Average Volume (3M)117.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth0.41%
EPS Growth78.32%
CountryCA
Employees21
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding71,803,000
10 Day Avg. Volume121,432
30 Day Avg. Volume117,248
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)4.32
P/FCF Ratio28.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$8.52Price Target Upside9.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$188.70M
Nexus Real Estate Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexus is a growth oriented real estate investment trust focused on increasing unitholder value through the acquisition, ownership and management of industrial, office and retail properties located in primary and secondary markets in North America....
How the Company Makes Money
Nexus generally makes money by acquiring and operating income-producing commercial properties and earning rental income from tenants. The core revenue stream is contractual lease revenue (base rent) billed to tenants for the right to occupy space,...
Nexus Real Estate Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operating and strategic picture: record NOI and adjusted EBITDA, strong leasing activity (1.2M sq ft YTD with 60% average leasing spread), high industrial occupancy (96%), accretive developments and opportunistic acquisitions with mark-to-market gains, and active capital recycling to reduce leverage. Key negatives include an accounting-driven decline in reported net income due to fair-value adjustments, slightly lower normalized AFFO year-over-year, elevated debt/EBITDA (~11x) with an explicit need to delever to mid-9s to reach investment-grade, and several execution/tenant setbacks (a tenant reneging, a buyer dropping a deal, and impacts from tenant insolvencies). On balance the operational momentum, strong leasing metrics, successful portfolio transformation to a pure-play industrial REIT, and clear deleveraging plan outweigh the accounted losses and financing risks.Positive Updates
Record Operating and EBITDA Performance
Full-year 2025 record net operating income (NOI) of $129 million, up 2.8% year-over-year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $120 million.
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline Driven by Fair-Value Adjustments
Q4 net income was $30.6 million, down $19.1 million year-over-year driven primarily by a $31 million decrease in the fair-value adjustment on Class B units and a $4.2 million fair-value loss on a Montreal office JV, partially offset by other gains.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operating and EBITDA Performance
Full-year 2025 record net operating income (NOI) of $129 million, up 2.8% year-over-year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $120 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to mid-single-digit same‑property NOI growth for the industrial portfolio in 2026 and expects normalized AFFO payout to average below 100%; they enter 2026 with roughly 990,000 sq ft of expiries (≈415,000 sq ft due Jan–Sep and ≈575,000 sq ft in Q4) with ~65% of the Jan–Sep expiries already committed, Q4 containing ~405,000 sq ft across three large tenants expected to renew and ~140,000 sq ft of strategic vacancies. Year‑to‑date leasing totaled ~1.2M sq ft with an average leasing spread of 60% and Q4 renewals were ~117,000 sq ft at a 2% average rent lift while industrial occupancy held at 96%. Management expects additional 2026 upside from completed developments, embedded rent steps, lease‑ups and re‑leasing at market, is targeting rapid deleveraging (debt/EBITDA near 11x today with a mid‑9s target to reach investment‑grade), and plans to commence new micro‑industrial development in H1 2026 (Adams ~180k sq ft at ~$47M and an incremental ~28k sq ft at Savage).Nexus Real Estate Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 174.95M | 175.70M | 157.65M | 137.12M | 83.56M |
| Gross Profit | 129.44M | 125.87M | 111.97M | 95.81M | 55.95M |
| EBITDA | 113.16M | 145.87M | 201.67M | 142.37M | -14.93M |
| Net Income | 59.55M | 90.88M | 160.03M | 91.75M | 146.36M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.60B | 2.46B | 1.97B | 1.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.11M | 11.53M | 5.92M | 11.53M | 82.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 827.11M | 679.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.57B | 1.54B | 1.46B | 1.09B | 968.67M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.00B | 872.54M | 689.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.87M | 24.70M | 32.08M | 30.32M | 19.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.14M | 38.96M | 51.02M | 41.53M | 25.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -60.04M | -78.60M | -345.99M | -315.73M | -469.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.48M | 45.26M | 289.36M | 203.45M | 512.54M |
Nexus Real Estate Investment Technical Analysis
Positive
7.78
Price Trends
7.65
Positive
7.65
Positive
7.54
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
59.82
Neutral
88.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NXR.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.52, above the 50-day MA of 7.65, and above the 200-day MA of 7.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NXR.UN.
Nexus Real Estate Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | C$1.69B | 8.83 | 17.29% | 0.09% | 10.61% | 43.64% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | C$762.02M | 12.68 | 5.54% | 8.07% | 0.41% | 78.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$5.58B | 29.80 | 2.22% | 4.20% | -6.51% | -81.28% | |
61 Neutral | C$2.01B | 69.28 | 0.93% | 4.42% | 6.19% | 79.98% | |
60 Neutral | C$1.87B | 27.54 | 0.81% | 3.01% | 1.55% | -401.05% | |
57 Neutral | C$647.31M | -3.53 | 7.26% | 3.87% | -1.21% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
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Nexus Real Estate Investment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Nexus Industrial REIT Completes Shift to Pure-Play Industrial Portfolio in 2025
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Nexus Industrial REIT reported that 2025 was a transformative year, completing its strategic shift to a pure-play industrial portfolio by selling legacy retail, office and non-core industrial assets while acquiring two high-quality industrial buil...
Financial Disclosures
Nexus Industrial REIT Sets March 6 Date for Q4 and 2025 Year-End Results
Neutral
Jan 8, 2026
Nexus Industrial REIT will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, before the opening of trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on March 6, 2026. The trust will follow the disclosure with a same-d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.