Nutrien (NTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$55.05B
• Dividend Yield: 3.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 2.67%
• EPS Growth: 154.37%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 481,141,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,698,125
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,584,952
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$101.19
• Price Target Upside: -6.04% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$36.45B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$120.00 ▲(11.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

Overall score reflects solid but cyclical financial performance (earnings rebound but weaker and uneven free cash flow), supported by a constructive technical uptrend and reasonable valuation with a ~3.1% dividend. Earnings call was net-positive on execution and capital allocation, tempered by operational and regional risks (Brazil, Trinidad-related nitrogen volumes, working-capital and phosphate pressure).

Positive Factors

Integrated production and distribution scale

Nutrien's record 27.5 Mt fertilizer sales in 2025 reflects durable end-to-end supply chain scale. Vertical integration across production, trading and retail helps capture margins at multiple points, supporting steadier revenue and market share through industry cycles.

Potash cost control and automation

Sustained sub-target potash costs and near-half mine automation indicate structural productivity and safety gains. Lower controllable costs and higher automation improve long-term margin resilience and reduce unit cost volatility versus peers reliant on manual operations.

Capital discipline and balance-sheet repair

Consistent capex restraint, strategic divestitures and meaningful short-term debt reduction strengthen financial flexibility. Improved cash allocation (dividends and buybacks) and lower leverage create a more durable platform for reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Uneven free cash flow conversion

Declining and uneven free cash flow versus reported earnings signals that profitability doesn't fully translate into spendable cash. This cyclicality limits repeatable capacity for capex, deleveraging or buybacks during downcycles and raises execution risk on cash targets.

Trinidad/New Madrid nitrogen outage risk

Loss of ~15% of nitrogen volumes due to gas and operational constraints is a structural supply vulnerability. Prolonged outages compress volumes and margins, force reliance on third-party supply or higher-cost alternatives, and heighten exposure to feedstock availability.

Brazil retail underperformance and review

A key downstream market running below hurdle rates erodes retail margin durability and complicates growth targets. Potential restructuring or divestitures introduce execution risk and could reduce scale or local distribution advantages in an important agricultural market.

Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Nutrien makes money primarily through two major business segments: (1) upstream fertilizer production and wholesale distribution and (2) downstream retail sales of crop inputs and services. First, in its fertilizer businesses, Nutrien earns revenue by producing and selling crop nutrients—most notably potash and nitrogen—into domestic and international markets. Sales are typically driven by shipment volumes and realized selling prices, which are influenced by global fertilizer supply/demand, crop prices, farmer profitability, energy and feedstock costs (particularly for nitrogen), and logistics. Nutrien can sell these products directly to customers and channel partners and also supply product into its own retail network, benefiting from vertical integration across production, trading, and distribution. Second, through Nutrien Ag Solutions (its retail segment), the company generates revenue from selling agricultural inputs to growers, including fertilizer products, crop protection products, and seed, along with associated agronomic services and programs that support on-farm decision-making and application. Retail revenue is influenced by acres planted, input intensity, product mix, local market competition, and seasonal purchasing patterns. This segment can also contribute earnings through service activities (such as application and agronomy support) and by bundling product sales with advisory and fulfillment capabilities. Across both segments, earnings are supported by the scale of its production assets, global distribution/logistics capabilities, and the breadth of its retail footprint, which can help capture margin at multiple points in the value chain (manufacturing, wholesale, and retail). Material factors affecting profitability include commodity pricing for fertilizers, input costs (especially natural gas for nitrogen), operating rates, freight and distribution costs, working-capital swings tied to seasonal demand, and overall agricultural market conditions.

Nutrien Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is generally sound with manageable leverage and an earnings rebound in 2025, but results are clearly cyclical versus the 2022 peak. Free cash flow has drifted down since 2022 and declined again in 2025, with uneven cash conversion (FCF roughly half of net income in 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile (down in 2023–2024, then up in 2025), but profitability improved meaningfully in 2025 with stronger gross and operating profitability versus 2024. Still, earnings remain well below the 2022 peak, underscoring the cyclical nature of results and less consistent margin performance over time.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and stable, with debt-to-equity around ~0.46–0.52 across the period and equity holding up well. Returns on equity rebounded in 2025 after a weak 2024, but remain far below the exceptional 2022 level, indicating profitability—and therefore balance-sheet efficiency—can fluctuate materially with the cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and free cash flow remains solid, but free cash flow has declined from 2022 and fell again in 2025 (negative growth). Cash conversion is mixed, with free cash flow running at roughly half of net income in 2025, suggesting earnings strength isn’t fully translating into incremental free cash flow and cash flow can be uneven year-to-year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	27.36B	25.97B	29.06B	37.88B	27.71B
Gross Profit	8.49B	7.53B	8.47B	15.42B	9.41B
EBITDA	6.37B	4.21B	4.88B	12.78B	6.58B
Net Income	2.31B	674.00M	1.26B	7.66B	3.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	52.21B	51.84B	52.75B	54.59B	49.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	699.72M	853.00M	941.00M	901.00M	499.00M
Total Debt	12.93B	12.81B	12.57B	11.93B	10.85B
Total Liabilities	26.89B	27.40B	27.55B	28.72B	26.25B
Stockholders Equity	25.28B	24.41B	25.16B	25.82B	23.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.04B	1.38B	2.47B	5.67B	2.10B
Operating Cash Flow	4.08B	3.54B	5.07B	8.11B	3.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.40B	-2.13B	-2.96B	-2.90B	-1.81B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.87B	-1.45B	-2.06B	-4.73B	-3.00B

Nutrien Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 107.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 107.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.19, above the 50-day MA of 94.79, and above the 200-day MA of 84.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.72 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NTR.

Nutrien Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTR	72 Outperform	C$55.05B	13.01	9.13%	3.52%	2.67%	154.37%
IFOS	71 Outperform	C$788.40M	2.75	33.41%	―	20.52%	1196.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NPK	53 Neutral	C$65.31M	-3.09	-40.67%	―	-36.30%	10.13%
MGRO	51 Neutral	C$30.60M	-3.66	-459.98%	―	51.04%	-2521.74%
KRN	44 Neutral	C$26.38M	-2.88	-21.85%	―	―	39.56%

Nutrien Corporate Events

Nutrien Lifts Dividend and Plans New Share Buyback Program

Nutrien Ltd. has raised its quarterly dividend to US$0.55 per share, a roughly one percent increase that brings its annualized payout to US$2.20, with payments structured in either Canadian or U.S. dollars depending on shareholder residency and election options. The board also authorized a normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to five percent of its outstanding common shares over the next 12 months, signaling continued emphasis on shareholder returns and capital allocation discipline, subject to regulatory approval.

The dividend framework includes flexibility for registered shareholders to choose their payment currency and enroll in direct deposit, while all dividends are designated as eligible under Canadian tax rules. Together, the modest dividend hike and planned buyback underscore confidence in cash generation and balance-sheet strength, with potential implications for earnings per share and overall capital return to investors if the repurchase program is fully executed.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NTR) stock is a Buy with a C$80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutrien stock, see the TSE:NTR Stock Forecast page.

Nutrien Boosts Earnings, Cash Returns as Portfolio Streamlining Accelerates

Nutrien reported full-year 2025 net earnings of $2.30 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion, driven by higher fertilizer selling prices, record upstream sales volumes and stronger retail performance, while fourth-quarter net earnings reached $0.58 billion. The company highlighted significant free cash flow generation, about $900 million in asset sale proceeds since late 2024, reduced adjusted net debt and a 30 percent increase in cash returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Retail adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.74 billion in 2025 as cost savings, stronger proprietary product margins and a disciplined Brazil strategy improved profitability. Potash adjusted EBITDA climbed to $2.25 billion on higher prices and record volumes, supported by strong affordability and demand, while automation accounted for nearly half of mined ore tonnes, reinforcing Nutrien’s low-cost edge.

Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA increased to $2.15 billion as operating rates improved and low-cost debottlenecking projects at North American plants expanded ammonia output. The board approved a modest dividend increase to $0.55 per share and authorized a new normal course issuer bid for up to 5 percent of outstanding shares, subject to exchange approval, signaling continued focus on shareholder returns.

Strategic portfolio actions continued, including the $0.6 billion sale of Nutrien’s 50 percent stake in Profertil S.A. and the cessation of production at the New Madrid nitrogen upgrade facility, both aimed at concentrating on core, higher-return assets. The company is also reviewing strategic alternatives for its phosphate business and assessing options for its Trinidad nitrogen facility, positioning the portfolio for enhanced earnings quality, capital efficiency and resilience as it pursues 2026 performance targets and benefits from supportive potash and nitrogen market fundamentals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NTR) stock is a Buy with a C$80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutrien stock, see the TSE:NTR Stock Forecast page.