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Nutrien Ltd (TSE:NTR)
TSX:NTR
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Nutrien (NTR) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:NTR

Nutrien

(TSX:NTR)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$86.00
▲(7.86% Upside)
Nutrien's overall stock score reflects a mix of stable financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, but the strong dividend yield and positive earnings call sentiment provide some balance. Strategic improvements and market conditions will be key to future performance.
Positive Factors
Guidance confidence
Despite a weak start to the year, Nutrien maintained its full-year guidance, which suggests confidence in future performance.
Market dynamics
The potash market dynamics are positive, with strong demand and supply constraints tightening the market.
New contracts
New potash contracts with China and India are likely setting a new floor price, supporting some spot price momentum.
Negative Factors
Earnings growth concerns
A lack of earnings growth and limited prospects for sustained higher fertilizer prices will weigh on sentiment.
Share price limitations
The company is downgraded to Market Perform due to significant share price gains, which limits further upside potential.
Supply risks
Risks to supply include potential changes in Belarussian, Chinese, and Russian exports, which could affect market dynamics.

Nutrien (NTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyNutrien makes money primarily through the sale of crop nutrients and agricultural services. The company's revenue streams are divided into three main segments: Retail, Potash, and Nitrogen & Phosphate. The Retail segment generates income by providing farmers with a wide variety of agricultural products and services, including seeds, crop protection products, and customized agronomic solutions. The Potash segment earns revenue from the production and sale of potash, a key nutrient for crop growth. Meanwhile, the Nitrogen & Phosphate segment focuses on the manufacturing and distribution of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, essential for plant nutrition. Nutrien's earnings are bolstered by strategic partnerships with farmers and agricultural businesses, as well as its extensive distribution network and global presence, which ensure a steady demand for its products and services.

Nutrien Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong performance in potash and nitrogen segments, with raised guidance for potash sales and increased shareholder returns. However, challenges remain in the phosphate market and certain regional markets due to weather conditions. Overall, Nutrien demonstrated significant progress towards strategic goals with effective cost management.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Potash Sales Volumes
Nutrien achieved record potash sales volumes in the first half of 2025, leading to a significant increase in earnings and cash from operations.
Raised Full Year Guidance for Potash Sales
The company raised its 2025 full-year guidance for potash sales volumes due to strong demand and increased visibility on the second-half order book.
Increased Returns to Shareholders
Nutrien increased returns of cash to shareholders by 49% from the prior year, allocating $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half.
Strong Nitrogen Segment Performance
The nitrogen segment achieved a 98% ammonia utilization rate, with completed brownfield debottlenecking efforts adding 150,000 tonnes of annual production capacity.
Significant Cost Reductions
The company achieved a 6% reduction in expenses in the first half and is ahead of schedule on a $200 million cost savings target.
Negative Updates
Phosphate Market Tightness
Phosphate markets remain tight due to limited supply and Chinese export restrictions, potentially impacting demand in 2025.
Challenges in Southern U.S. Markets
Unfavorable weather conditions in the Southern U.S. led to a reduction in proprietary seed sales in the second quarter.
Lower Planned Potash Production Costs
The first half controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs.
Company Guidance
During Nutrien's 2025 second quarter earnings call, the company provided updated guidance and highlighted several key metrics. Nutrien reported an 11% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $2.5 billion for the second quarter, with cash from operations rising by 40%. The company raised its full-year guidance for potash sales volumes to 13.9 to 14.5 million tonnes, reflecting strong demand and a fully committed sales book for the third quarter. Nitrogen operations achieved a 98% ammonia utilization rate, and brownfield debottlenecking projects were completed, adding 150,000 tonnes of annual capacity. Retail segment expenses were reduced by 6% in the first half, contributing to progress toward a $200 million cost savings target by 2025. Capital expenditures were 18% lower than the previous year, and Nutrien increased shareholder returns with $786 million allocated to dividends and share repurchases, up 49% year-over-year. Looking ahead, Nutrien expects continued strong demand for fertilizers, with a constructive market outlook supported by global supply challenges and favorable agricultural conditions.

Nutrien Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nutrien's financial health presents a mixed performance. Stable profitability margins and a strong equity position are positives, but declining revenue and free cash flow growth are concerning. Despite strong operational cash flow generation, challenges remain in sustaining net income and revenue growth.
Income Statement
70
Positive
The company's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is 28.47%, which is decent, but the net profit margin is low at 2.05%, indicating challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue growth has been negative recently, declining by 8.91% from 2024 to 2025, which is concerning. EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM are moderate at 10.51% and 18.47%, respectively. Overall, the income statement reflects stable margins but with a downward revenue trend.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet presents a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 45.32% for TTM, indicating a strong equity cushion. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.61, suggesting moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 2.19%, showing limited profitability relative to equity. Despite some leverage, the company's balance sheet is stable, with a good proportion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow metrics indicate some areas of concern. Free cash flow growth has declined significantly by 37.79% from 2024 to TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 5.58, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.63 for TTM highlights potential issues in maintaining free cash flow levels. Overall, cash flow performance shows strong operational cash flow but declining free cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.97B29.06B37.88B27.71B20.91B
Gross Profit7.53B8.47B15.42B9.41B5.24B
EBITDA4.21B4.88B12.07B6.58B2.89B
Net Income674.00M1.26B7.66B3.15B459.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.84B52.75B54.59B49.95B47.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments853.00M941.00M901.00M499.00M1.45B
Total Debt12.81B12.57B11.93B10.85B11.36B
Total Liabilities27.40B27.55B28.72B26.25B24.83B
Stockholders Equity24.41B25.16B25.82B23.65B22.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.38B2.47B5.67B2.10B1.77B
Operating Cash Flow3.54B5.07B8.11B3.89B3.32B
Investing Cash Flow-2.13B-2.96B-2.90B-1.81B-1.20B
Financing Cash Flow-1.45B-2.06B-4.73B-3.00B-1.34B

Nutrien Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price79.73
Price Trends
50DMA
81.91
Negative
100DMA
78.06
Positive
200DMA
73.04
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.16
Positive
RSI
41.63
Neutral
STOCH
15.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.06, below the 50-day MA of 81.91, and above the 200-day MA of 73.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NTR.

Nutrien Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$39.69B55.485.43%3.80%-6.74%-36.22%
61
Neutral
$9.71B7.09-0.14%3.12%3.12%-45.65%
43
Neutral
C$6.93M-35.90%-16.48%
40
Neutral
C$27.39M-32.62%-39.06%-9.07%
$413.24M4.1730.22%
$7.75M-32.32%
$30.44M-201.16%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NTR
Nutrien
76.56
16.04
26.51%
TSE:KRN
Karnalyte Resources
0.12
-0.01
-7.69%
TSE:NPK
Verde Agritech
0.48
-0.26
-35.14%
ITFS
Itafos
2.17
1.03
90.35%
VVIVF
EarthRenew
0.06
0.02
50.00%
MGROF
MustGrow Biologics
0.53
0.01
1.92%

Nutrien Corporate Events

Dividends
Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend of US$0.545 per Share
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Nutrien Ltd. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, payable on October 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 29, 2025. The dividend will be paid in Canadian dollars to Canadian residents and in US dollars to non-residents, with the option for registered shareholders to change the currency of their payments. This announcement reflects Nutrien’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and maintaining its strong position in the agricultural industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NTR) stock is a Buy with a C$75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutrien stock, see the TSE:NTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Nutrien Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Favorable Fertilizer Market
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Nutrien Ltd. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with net earnings of $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion. The company achieved record potash sales volumes and increased nitrogen operating rates, supported by robust global demand and supply disruptions in the fertilizer market. Nutrien raised its full-year potash sales volume guidance while maintaining other operational priorities, reflecting its strategic focus on optimizing capital expenditures and returning cash to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NTR) stock is a Buy with a C$75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutrien stock, see the TSE:NTR Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Nutrien Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Fertilizer Market Demand
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Nutrien Ltd. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with net earnings of $1.2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion. The company achieved record sales volumes in potash and increased nitrogen operating rates, driven by robust global demand and supply disruptions in the fertilizer market. Nutrien is raising its full-year potash sales volume guidance while maintaining its capital allocation priorities. The company returned $0.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, highlighting its commitment to shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NTR) stock is a Buy with a C$75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutrien stock, see the TSE:NTR Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Nutrien Reports Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 Annual Meeting
Positive
May 8, 2025

Nutrien Ltd. announced the results of its 2025 annual meeting, where 74.48% of common shares were represented. All 12 director nominees were elected with high approval rates, KPMG LLP was re-appointed as auditor, and a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation was approved. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support and reinforce Nutrien’s strategic direction and governance.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend of US$0.545 per Share
Positive
May 7, 2025

Nutrien Ltd. has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, payable on July 18, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Nutrien’s commitment to returning value to shareholders and highlights its robust financial position, which supports its strategic investments and operations in the agricultural sector.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Nutrien Ltd. Reports First Quarter 2025 Results, Maintains Positive Outlook
Positive
May 7, 2025

Nutrien Ltd. reported its first quarter 2025 results, highlighting net earnings of $19 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0.9 billion. Despite challenges such as weather-related sales delays and increased natural gas costs, the company maintained its full-year guidance, reflecting confidence in its operational efficiency and strategic capital allocation. Nutrien’s strong potash sales and increased ammonia operating rates are expected to support a positive outlook for the year, with plans to focus on high-value investments and shareholder returns.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025