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Nutrien Ltd (TSE:NTR)
TSX:NTR
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Nutrien
(TSX:NTR)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$86.00
▲(10.54% Upside)
Nutrien's overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its financial stability, operational strengths, and market challenges. The strong cash flow and positive earnings call are significant positives, while technical indicators and valuation suggest caution. The company's strategic focus on cost management and increased shareholder returns positions it well for future growth, despite some regional and market-specific challenges.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Nutrien (NTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$37.93B
Dividend Yield3.89%
Average Volume (3M)1.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.2
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-0.74%
EPS Growth78.08%
CountryCA
Employees25,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.65
Shares Outstanding487,486,720
10 Day Avg. Volume1,482,091
30 Day Avg. Volume1,194,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.18Price Target Upside15.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyNutrien generates its revenue primarily through the sale of fertilizers, which are essential for crop production. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers. Nutrien also earns income from agricultural services, which encompass seed sales, crop protection products, and agronomic advice. The company's revenue model is supported by its extensive retail network, allowing it to reach farmers directly. Additionally, Nutrien benefits from significant partnerships with agricultural producers and retailers, which enhance its distribution capabilities and market presence. Factors such as global crop demand, commodity prices, and agricultural trends significantly influence Nutrien's earnings.
Nutrien Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong operational performance, record sales in potash, and significant cost savings, contributing to increased shareholder returns. However, challenges in controllable cash costs, weather impacts on Retail, and pressures on farmer margins present potential risks.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Potash Sales Volumes
Nutrien achieved record potash sales volumes in the first half of 2025, contributing to increased earnings and cash from operations.
Nitrogen Segment Performance
Nitrogen operations achieved a 98% ammonia utilization rate, with completed debottlenecking efforts adding 150,000 tonnes of annual production capacity.
Cost Savings and Reduced Capital Expenditures
Nutrien is ahead of schedule on its $200 million cost savings target and capital expenditures were 18% below the previous year.
Increased Shareholder Returns
The company allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half, a 49% increase from the previous year.
Strong Retail Segment Performance
The Retail segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in Q2, up 2% from the prior year, with strong crop input demand in the U.S. Corn Belt.
Negative Updates
Higher Controllable Cash Costs in Potash
First half controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the previous year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs.
Weather Challenges Affecting Retail
Unfavorable weather conditions in Australia and the Southern U.S. impacted seed sales and crop mix, reducing potential revenue.
Phosphate Segment Challenges
Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was impacted by lower sales volumes and higher sulfur input costs, despite higher net selling prices.
Pressure on Farmer Margins
Lower ag commodity prices and grower margins posed potential risks to future fertilizer demand despite current strong engagement.
Company Guidance
In the 2025 second quarter earnings call, Nutrien provided several key metrics and guidance updates. The company reported record potash sales volumes and nitrogen operating rates in the first half of 2025, with potash sales volumes guidance for the full year raised to 13.9 to 14.5 million tonnes. Nitrogen operations achieved a 98% ammonia utilization rate, and the company completed brownfield debottlenecking at Redwater and Geismar plants, adding 150,000 tonnes of annual production capacity. Nutrien also reduced capital expenditures by 18% compared to the prior year and increased returns to shareholders through $786 million in dividends and share repurchases, a 49% increase from the previous year. The company is ahead of schedule on its $200 million cost savings target, expecting to achieve it in 2025. Nutrien's adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $2.5 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year, with cash provided by operating activities rising by 40%. Looking forward, the company anticipates stable demand in Brazil and has a positive outlook for the potash market, expecting global shipments of 73 to 75 million tonnes for 2025.Nutrien Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Nutrien's financials show a mixed picture. Revenue growth is stabilizing, but profitability margins are under pressure. The balance sheet indicates increased leverage, yet maintains a strong equity base. Cash flow performance is a highlight, with significant improvement in free cash flow, indicating financial health.Income Statement
Nutrien's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is slightly positive at 1.1%, indicating a recovery from previous declines. However, margins have compressed significantly compared to historical highs, with the net profit margin at 2.05% and EBIT margin at 6.44%. The gross profit margin remains stable at around 29.4%, suggesting some resilience in cost management. Overall, while revenue is stabilizing, profitability remains under pressure.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.61 in the TTM, indicating higher leverage, but it remains manageable. Return on equity has decreased to 2.14%, reflecting lower profitability. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base. While leverage has increased, the company maintains a strong equity position, providing some financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow growth in the TTM at 99.4%, a significant improvement. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.23, indicating that cash generation is aligned with earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, showing effective cash conversion. Despite past fluctuations, the recent surge in free cash flow is a positive indicator of financial health.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.96B | 25.97B | 29.06B | 37.88B | 27.71B | 20.91B |
| Gross Profit | 7.58B | 7.53B | 8.47B | 15.42B | 9.41B | 5.24B |
| EBITDA | 4.99B | 4.21B | 4.88B | 12.07B | 6.58B | 2.89B |
| Net Income | 1.36B | 674.00M | 1.26B | 7.66B | 3.15B | 459.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.26B | 51.84B | 52.75B | 54.59B | 49.95B | 47.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.39B | 853.00M | 941.00M | 901.00M | 499.00M | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 13.64B | 12.81B | 12.57B | 11.93B | 10.85B | 11.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.14B | 27.40B | 27.55B | 28.72B | 26.25B | 24.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.09B | 24.41B | 25.16B | 25.82B | 23.65B | 22.36B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.71B | 1.38B | 2.47B | 5.67B | 2.10B | 1.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.67B | 3.54B | 5.07B | 8.11B | 3.89B | 3.32B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.76B | -2.13B | -2.96B | -2.90B | -1.81B | -1.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.52B | -1.45B | -2.06B | -4.73B | -3.00B | -1.34B |
Nutrien Technical Analysis
Negative
77.80
Price Trends
80.24
Negative
80.30
Negative
75.17
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.46
Positive
42.02
Neutral
33.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.28, below the 50-day MA of 80.24, and above the 200-day MA of 75.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NTR.
Nutrien Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $37.93B | 20.17 | 5.43% | 3.89% | -0.74% | 78.08% | |
66 Neutral | 519.66M | 3.41 | 26.96% | ― | 15.95% | 0.00% | |
57 Neutral | 33.53M | -5.89 | 0.00% | ― | 49.17% | -1068.82% | |
44 Neutral | 24.49M | -2.15 | -44.12% | ― | -36.74% | 15.76% | |
43 Neutral | 5.59M | -7.09 | 0.00% | ― | 0.00% | 51.79% | |
40 Underperform | 11.35M | -3.02 | 0.00% | ― | -29.91% | -89.29% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:NTR
Nutrien
77.80
15.65
25.17%
TSE:KRN
Karnalyte Resources
0.10
-0.02
-16.67%
TSE:NPK
Verde Agritech
0.46
-0.22
-32.35%
ITFS
Itafos
1.94
0.84
76.36%
VVIVF
EarthRenew
0.06
0.03
100.00%
MGROF
MustGrow Biologics
0.46
-0.29
-38.67%
Nutrien Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Nutrien to Divest Stake in Profertil for $600 Million
Positive
Sep 8, 2025
Nutrien Ltd. announced an agreement to sell its 50 percent equity position in the Argentine nitrogen producer Profertil S.A. to Adecoagro S.A. and Asociacion de Cooperativas Argentinas Coop Ltda for approximately $600 million. This strategic move aligns with Nutrien’s focus on core assets and geographies, with plans to allocate proceeds towards growth investments, share repurchases, and debt reduction, enhancing earnings quality and supporting long-term growth.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NTR) stock is a Hold with a C$64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutrien stock, see the TSE:NTR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.