Nutrien (NTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$39.33B
• Dividend Yield: 3.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 2.67%
• EPS Growth: 154.37%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 1.37
• Shares Outstanding: 483,340,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,873,779
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,629,487
• PEG Ratio: -0.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$89.92
• Price Target Upside: 7.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$37.19B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$94.00 ▲(11.93% Upside)

Nutrien's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive technical indicators. The company's strategic initiatives and market outlook are promising, though operational challenges in specific segments pose some risks. The valuation is attractive, supported by a reasonable P/E ratio and a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant increase in adjusted EBITDA indicates strong revenue growth, driven by high demand for fertilizers, enhancing Nutrien's market position and supporting long-term financial stability.

Operational Efficiency

Improved ammonia utilization reflects enhanced operational efficiency in nitrogen operations, contributing to better margins and long-term competitiveness in the agricultural inputs market.

Shareholder Returns

Increased shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks demonstrate strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to investors, supporting long-term investor confidence.

Negative Factors

Trinidad Operations Shutdown

The shutdown of Trinidad operations poses a risk to cash flow and operational stability, potentially affecting Nutrien's ability to meet demand and maintain profitability in the long term.

Phosphate Business Challenges

The strategic review of the Phosphate business highlights ongoing challenges and underperformance, which could lead to restructuring costs and impact overall profitability.

Increased Potash Production Costs

Rising production costs in potash could pressure margins and reduce competitive advantage, impacting Nutrien's ability to sustain profitability in a cost-sensitive market.

Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nutrien Ltd. is a global leader in the production and distribution of agricultural inputs, primarily focused on providing crop nutrients, crop protection products, and retail solutions for farmers. The company operates in two main segments: Retail and Wholesale. Nutrien's core products include potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers, along with a range of agricultural services aimed at enhancing crop yield and sustainability. With a strong presence in North America and other international markets, Nutrien is committed to helping farmers maximize their productivity while ensuring environmental stewardship.

How the Company Makes Money

Nutrien generates revenue primarily through the sale of fertilizers and agricultural inputs, with significant contributions from both its Retail and Wholesale segments. The Wholesale segment focuses on producing and selling potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers to agricultural customers globally, while the Retail segment provides farmers with crop inputs, crop protection products, and agronomic services. Key revenue streams include sales of nutrient products, retail sales of seeds and crop protection chemicals, and the provision of agronomic advice and services. Nutrien also benefits from strategic partnerships with agricultural producers and cooperatives, enhancing its distribution capabilities and market reach. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for potash and nitrogen, play a crucial role in the company's financial performance, driving revenues based on global supply and demand dynamics.

Nutrien Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nutrien demonstrates a solid financial position with improving profitability and cash flow metrics. The income statement shows stable gross profit margins and improved net profit margins. The balance sheet reflects manageable leverage with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, and cash flow analysis indicates strong free cash flow growth. However, challenges remain in maintaining consistent revenue growth.

Income Statement

Nutrien's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin around 29%, with a notable improvement in net profit margin to 5.25% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue growth has been modest at 2.28% in TTM, following a decline in previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved to 5.54%, indicating better profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong free cash flow growth rate of 29.38% in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.56B	25.97B	29.06B	37.88B	27.71B	20.91B
Gross Profit	8.02B	7.53B	8.47B	15.42B	9.41B	5.24B
EBITDA	5.61B	4.21B	4.88B	12.78B	6.58B	2.89B
Net Income	1.80B	674.00M	1.26B	7.66B	3.15B	459.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.83B	51.84B	52.75B	54.59B	49.95B	47.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	624.00M	853.00M	941.00M	901.00M	499.00M	1.45B
Total Debt	14.18B	12.81B	12.57B	11.93B	10.85B	11.36B
Total Liabilities	26.67B	27.40B	27.55B	28.72B	26.25B	24.83B
Stockholders Equity	25.12B	24.41B	25.16B	25.82B	23.65B	22.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.22B	1.38B	2.47B	5.67B	2.10B	1.77B
Operating Cash Flow	4.14B	3.54B	5.07B	8.11B	3.89B	3.32B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.64B	-2.13B	-2.96B	-2.90B	-1.81B	-1.20B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.39B	-1.45B	-2.06B	-4.73B	-3.00B	-1.34B

Nutrien Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 83.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.38, above the 50-day MA of 81.02, and above the 200-day MA of 78.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NTR.

Nutrien Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTR	75 Outperform	C$39.33B	15.85	7.22%	3.65%	2.67%	154.37%
IFOS	70 Outperform	C$564.25M	3.19	33.41%	―	20.52%	1196.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MGRO	57 Neutral	C$32.96M	―	-198.96%	―	51.04%	-2521.74%
NPK	50 Neutral	C$67.42M	-6.06	-37.27%	―	-36.30%	10.13%
ERTH	50 Neutral	$20.06M	-4.72	-60.25%	―	-19.17%	-3607.69%
KRN	43 Neutral	C$8.53M	-8.38	-21.94%	―	―	39.56%

Nutrien Corporate Events

Nutrien Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Business Review

Nutrien Ltd. reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with net earnings of $0.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion. The company has shown significant earnings growth through increased fertilizer sales and improved operational efficiency. Nutrien is reviewing strategic alternatives for its Phosphate business to enhance long-term value and has completed a controlled shutdown of its Trinidad Nitrogen facility due to operational challenges. Additionally, Nutrien plans to sell its stake in Profertil S.A., aiming to use the proceeds for growth investments, share repurchases, and debt reduction, aligning with its strategic focus on core assets.

Nutrien Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Business Moves

Nutrien Ltd. reported strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with net earnings of $0.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion. The company achieved record fertilizer sales volumes and improved reliability, contributing to increased earnings and cash returns to shareholders. Nutrien is reviewing strategic alternatives for its Phosphate business to enhance long-term value and has completed a controlled shutdown of its Trinidad Nitrogen facility due to operational challenges. The company also announced the sale of its equity interest in Profertil S.A., aligning with its capital allocation priorities.

Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend, Reinforcing Shareholder Value

Nutrien Ltd. announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, payable on January 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. This announcement reflects Nutrien’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value and highlights its robust financial position, which allows it to continue rewarding investors while maintaining its strategic focus on growth and efficiency in the agricultural sector.

Nutrien Initiates Shutdown of Trinidad Nitrogen Operations Amid Supply Challenges

Nutrien Ltd. has announced a controlled shutdown of its Trinidad Nitrogen operations due to port access restrictions and unreliable natural gas supply, which have impacted the facility’s financial performance. Despite this, Nutrien expects to meet its 2025 nitrogen sales volume targets, thanks to strong performance from its North American operations, and continues to engage with stakeholders to assess future options.

Nutrien to Divest Stake in Profertil for $600 Million

Nutrien Ltd. announced an agreement to sell its 50 percent equity position in the Argentine nitrogen producer Profertil S.A. to Adecoagro S.A. and Asociacion de Cooperativas Argentinas Coop Ltda for approximately $600 million. This strategic move aligns with Nutrien’s focus on core assets and geographies, with plans to allocate proceeds towards growth investments, share repurchases, and debt reduction, enhancing earnings quality and supporting long-term growth.