Nutrien (NTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $39.24B
• Dividend Yield: 3.84%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 55.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -6.74%
• EPS Growth: -36.22%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 487,486,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,950,324
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,429,036
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.59
• 1Y Price Target: $85.95
• Price Target Upside: 6.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$89.00 ▲(10.56%Upside)

Nutrien's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance amid challenges, with strengths in technical indicators and strategic actions. The strong balance sheet and cash flow generation provide a solid foundation, while the dividend yield offers some income potential. However, valuation concerns and market challenges weigh on the stock's potential upside.

Positive Factors

Agricultural Fundamentals

Agricultural fundamentals are generally stronger now, leading to improved stocks-to-use ratios and higher grain prices.

Corn Market Outlook

US corn planting is largely complete, and crop conditions are progressing well, indicating a strong 2025 crop outlook.

Potash Market Dynamics

New potash contracts with China and India are likely setting a new floor price, supporting some spot price momentum.

Negative Factors

Corn Price Decline

Recent decline in corn prices represents a mismatch with Nutrien's strong share performance, which is often unsustainable.

Downgrade and Upside Potential

The company is downgraded to Market Perform due to significant share price gains, which limits further upside potential.

Pricing Trends in Potash

Nutrien's large potash operation is likely to experience negative pricing comparisons because of adverse pricing trends.

Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nutrien Ltd. is a leading global provider of crop inputs, services, and solutions. Operating in the agriculture sector, the company is primarily engaged in the production and distribution of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate products, which are essential nutrients for plant growth. Nutrien's core offerings include fertilizers, agriculture retail services, and various crop production products, serving farmers and agricultural producers worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

Nutrien makes money through several key revenue streams. The primary sources include the sale of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers, which are critical for enhancing crop yields and ensuring food security. Additionally, Nutrien operates a significant agriculture retail business, providing farmers with products and services such as seeds, crop protection products, and agronomic advice. The company's revenue is further supported by strategic partnerships and joint ventures in the agriculture industry, enhancing its market reach and operational efficiency. Nutrien's earnings are influenced by factors such as global agricultural demand, commodity prices, and seasonal planting patterns, which affect the sales volume and pricing of its products.

Nutrien Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nutrien's financial health presents a mixed performance. Stable profitability margins and a strong equity position are positives, but declining revenue and free cash flow growth are concerning. Despite strong operational cash flow generation, challenges remain in sustaining net income and revenue growth.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is 28.47%, which is decent, but the net profit margin is low at 2.05%, indicating challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue growth has been negative recently, declining by 8.91% from 2024 to 2025, which is concerning. EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM are moderate at 10.51% and 18.47%, respectively. Overall, the income statement reflects stable margins but with a downward revenue trend.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 45.32% for TTM, indicating a strong equity cushion. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.61, suggesting moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 2.19%, showing limited profitability relative to equity. Despite some leverage, the company's balance sheet is stable, with a good proportion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics indicate some areas of concern. Free cash flow growth has declined significantly by 37.79% from 2024 to TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 5.58, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.63 for TTM highlights potential issues in maintaining free cash flow levels. Overall, cash flow performance shows strong operational cash flow but declining free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.68B	25.97B	29.06B	37.88B	27.71B	20.91B
Gross Profit	7.31B	7.53B	8.47B	15.42B	9.41B	5.24B
EBITDA	4.74B	4.21B	4.88B	12.07B	6.58B	2.89B
Net Income	527.00M	674.00M	1.26B	7.66B	3.15B	459.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.07B	51.84B	52.75B	54.59B	49.95B	47.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	895.00M	853.00M	941.00M	901.00M	499.00M	1.45B
Total Debt	14.71B	12.81B	12.57B	11.93B	10.85B	11.36B
Total Liabilities	29.00B	27.40B	27.55B	28.72B	26.25B	24.83B
Stockholders Equity	24.04B	24.41B	25.16B	25.82B	23.65B	22.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	859.00M	1.38B	2.47B	5.67B	2.10B	1.77B
Operating Cash Flow	2.94B	3.54B	5.07B	8.11B	3.89B	3.32B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.88B	-2.13B	-2.96B	-2.90B	-1.81B	-1.20B
Financing Cash Flow	-636.00M	-1.45B	-2.06B	-4.73B	-3.00B	-1.34B

Nutrien Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 80.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.83, above the 50-day MA of 79.98, and above the 200-day MA of 71.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NTR.

Nutrien Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IFOS	82 Outperform	$511.96M	3.65	30.22%	―	8.78%	―
NTR	71 Outperform	$39.24B	55.58	2.15%	3.84%	-6.74%	-36.22%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$16.25B	4.26	-6.43%	7.78%	-3.39%	-61.30%
MGRO	57 Neutral	$41.57M	―	-201.16%	―	-91.55%	-495.60%
NPK	45 Neutral	C$26.86M	―	-32.62%	―	-39.06%	-9.07%
KRN	43 Neutral	C$8.79M	―	-35.90%	―	―	-16.48%
ERTH	40 Underperform	$11.35M	―	-32.32%	―	-47.01%	95.62%

Nutrien Corporate Events

Nutrien Reports Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 Annual Meeting

Nutrien Ltd. announced the results of its 2025 annual meeting, where 74.48% of common shares were represented. All 12 director nominees were elected with high approval rates, KPMG LLP was re-appointed as auditor, and a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation was approved. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support and reinforce Nutrien’s strategic direction and governance.

Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend of US$0.545 per Share

Nutrien Ltd. has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, payable on July 18, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Nutrien’s commitment to returning value to shareholders and highlights its robust financial position, which supports its strategic investments and operations in the agricultural sector.

Nutrien Ltd. Reports First Quarter 2025 Results, Maintains Positive Outlook

Nutrien Ltd. reported its first quarter 2025 results, highlighting net earnings of $19 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0.9 billion. Despite challenges such as weather-related sales delays and increased natural gas costs, the company maintained its full-year guidance, reflecting confidence in its operational efficiency and strategic capital allocation. Nutrien’s strong potash sales and increased ammonia operating rates are expected to support a positive outlook for the year, with plans to focus on high-value investments and shareholder returns.