Itafos (IFOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$550.72M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 80.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: 20.52%
• EPS Growth: 1196.33%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 437
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 193,234,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 99,092
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 80,406
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.84
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$764.88M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$3.50 ▲(14.75% Upside)

Itafos's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by weak technical indicators. Positive corporate events further bolster the score, highlighting strategic advancements and financial strengthening. However, the bearish technical trend and declining free cash flow growth are areas of concern that need attention.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion and stability.

Cash Generation

Enhanced cash generation capabilities provide financial flexibility for reinvestment and debt management, strengthening the company's financial position.

Balance Sheet Health

Low leverage reduces financial risk and enhances the company's ability to withstand economic fluctuations, ensuring long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Gross Profit Margin Decline

A declining gross profit margin may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, potentially impacting profitability if the trend continues.

Equity Ratio Decline

A declining equity ratio could signal weakening financial stability, potentially affecting the company's ability to finance growth through equity.

Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio Decline

A declining ratio suggests reduced cash efficiency, which may limit the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives.

Itafos Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Itafos Inc. operates as a phosphate and specialty fertilizer platform company. The company produces and sells monoammonium phosphate (MAP), MAP with micronutrients, superphosphoric acid, merchant grade phosphoric acid, ammonium polyphosphate, single superphosphate (SSP), SSP with micronutrients, and sulfuric acid. It also owns interests in the Farim, a phosphate mine project situated in Farim, Guinea-Bissau; Araxá, a rare earth element and niobium mine and extraction plant project that covers an area of approximately 226 hectares situated in Minas Gerais, Brazil; and Santana, an integrated phosphate mine and fertilizer plant project, which covers an area of approximately 233,070 hectares located in Pará, Brazil. The company was formerly known as MBAC Fertilizer Corp. and changed its name to Itafos Inc. in December 2016. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Itafos Inc. is a subsidiary of CL Fertilizers Holding LLC.

How the Company Makes Money

Itafos generates revenue through the sale of its phosphate products, primarily targeting agricultural markets. The company’s revenue model is based on the production and distribution of fertilizers, which are critical for enhancing soil fertility and crop growth. Key revenue streams include direct sales of phosphate-based fertilizers and phosphoric acid to agricultural distributors and retailers. Additionally, Itafos may benefit from strategic partnerships with agricultural companies and cooperatives that facilitate market access and broaden its customer base. Factors contributing to its earnings include global agricultural demand, pricing of phosphate commodities, and operational efficiencies in its production processes.

Itafos Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Itafos demonstrates strong financial performance with solid profitability and a stable balance sheet. The income statement shows consistent growth and profitability, while the balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and strong equity returns. However, the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern that needs to be addressed to ensure long-term financial health. Continued focus on cost management and cash flow improvement will be crucial for sustaining growth and stability.

Income Statement

Itafos has shown a strong recovery in its income statement metrics over the years. The TTM data indicates a healthy gross profit margin of 28.5% and a net profit margin of 20.0%, reflecting improved profitability. Revenue growth has been positive at 4.4% in the TTM, indicating a steady upward trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 26.9% and 34.5% respectively, showcasing efficient operational management. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased from the previous year, suggesting room for improvement in cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Itafos reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is strong at 30.0%, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 51.2%, highlighting a solid equity base. Despite these strengths, the company should remain cautious of any potential increase in debt levels to maintain financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges for Itafos. The free cash flow growth rate has declined significantly by 54.3% in the TTM, which could impact future investments and debt repayments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.59, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, suggesting that a portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow. The company should focus on improving its free cash flow generation to strengthen its cash position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	611.20M	491.24M	465.52M	593.29M	413.25M	260.19M
Gross Profit	166.02M	148.79M	118.56M	214.88M	136.88M	-16.22M
EBITDA	226.06M	149.25M	53.75M	219.59M	134.33M	-8.17M
Net Income	140.16M	87.79M	3.86M	115.10M	51.03M	-62.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.14B	695.86M	587.23M	614.01M	633.85M	477.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	150.73M	74.37M	31.05M	42.81M	31.57M	10.04M
Total Debt	126.29M	108.17M	103.83M	143.90M	254.09M	256.94M
Total Liabilities	528.72M	348.03M	328.50M	360.89M	499.25M	394.88M
Stockholders Equity	610.72M	347.83M	258.73M	252.35M	133.44M	81.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	39.20M	52.57M	39.96M	169.37M	60.42M	-17.41M
Operating Cash Flow	121.85M	120.05M	94.72M	208.37M	94.50M	-3.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-73.35M	-65.20M	-53.33M	-39.00M	-34.08M	-13.96M
Financing Cash Flow	-32.23M	-9.37M	-54.23M	-158.32M	-38.43M	-2.16M

Itafos Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IFOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, below the 50-day MA of 3.14, and above the 200-day MA of 2.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:IFOS.

Itafos Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHE.UN	73 Outperform	C$1.65B	14.86	14.30%	4.79%	10.20%	-11.22%
IFOS	70 Outperform	C$550.72M	3.14	33.41%	―	20.52%	1196.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Itafos Corporate Events

Itafos Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Advancements

Itafos Inc. reported a strong Q3 2025 performance with significant increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, despite high raw material costs. The company completed the mechanical build-out of the H1/NDR mine and monetized its equity interest in St George Mining, leading to a special dividend announcement. These developments position Itafos well in the tight phosphate market, with plans to leverage existing infrastructure for future growth.

Itafos to Release Q3 2025 Financial Results and Business Update

Itafos Inc. announced the release date for its Q3 2025 financial results, which will be available after market close on November 5, 2025. An on-demand webcast providing management commentary and business updates will be accessible on November 10, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

Itafos Monetizes Stake in St George Mining to Boost Financial Position

Itafos Inc. has partially monetized its equity interest in St George Mining Limited, acquired from the sale of its Araxá project. The transaction, which involved selling over 277 million shares, is expected to generate approximately USD$18.3 million in gross proceeds. This move aligns with Itafos’s strategy to monetize non-core assets and strengthen its financial position, while also delivering value to shareholders. The appreciation of St George’s shares since the initial sale has allowed Itafos to recognize significant value, furthering its focus on core business operations.

Itafos to Present at Vancouver Smallcap Discoveries Conference

Itafos Inc. announced its participation in the Annual Smallcap Discoveries Conference in Vancouver, where CEO David Delaney will present the company’s recent results and long-term strategies. This event provides an opportunity for Itafos to engage with investors and highlight its growth potential in the phosphate and specialty fertilizer industry.