Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX)
TSX:MX
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Methanex
(TSX:MX)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$88.00
▲(6.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong cash generation but pressured net profitability and meaningful leverage—tempered by a high P/E valuation. Technicals are a notable positive with a strong uptrend, while the earnings call was balanced: slightly improving near-term EBITDA outlook and deleveraging focus, but ongoing integration, operational risks, and market uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow, including materially higher 2025 FCF, provides durable internal funding. This supports debt reduction, maintenance and growth CapEx, and cushions the business through methanol price cycles, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage for a cyclical chemical
Elevated leverage in a commodity‑cyclical business limits financial flexibility and raises interest exposure. Even with improvement, material debt levels force prioritization of FCF to deleveraging, constraining reinvestment and increasing vulnerability if methanol pricing or margins weaken.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow, including materially higher 2025 FCF, provides durable internal funding. This supports debt reduction, maintenance and growth CapEx, and cushions the business through methanol price cycles, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Methanex (MX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.37B
Dividend Yield1.87%
Average Volume (3M)212.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.4
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth-0.65%
EPS Growth46.15%
CountryCA
Employees1,415
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.19
Shares Outstanding77,339,520
10 Day Avg. Volume143,070
30 Day Avg. Volume212,631
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio3.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$82.17Price Target Upside-0.24% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.50B
Methanex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Methanex Corporation produces and supplies methanol in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and South America. The company also purchases methanol produced by others under methanol offtake contracts and on the spot market. In addition, it owns...
How the Company Makes Money
Methanex makes money primarily by producing and selling methanol. Its core revenue stream is methanol sales volumes multiplied by prevailing methanol prices, with realized pricing influenced by regional supply-demand conditions and the company’s g...
Methanex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of operational and financial positives — excellent safety performance, strong cash position and active deleveraging, stable-to-improving operations at key plants, a clear 2026 production guide (9.0Mt), and a defined synergy target from the OCI acquisition — while also highlighting near-term challenges including Q4 outage-related costs, an adjusted net loss, integration costs not fully realized, structural and seasonal gas supply risks (Chile, Egypt, New Zealand), and significant market uncertainty from the Middle East escalation that affects supply reliability and pricing volatility. Management expects slightly higher adjusted EBITDA in Q1 and is prioritizing debt repayment, but material upside is contingent on market tightness and realization of synergies.Positive Updates
Outstanding Safety Performance
Zero Tier 1 process safety incidents over the past two years; recordable injury rates of 0.09 (2024) and 0.12 (2025) per 200,000 hours versus the chemical industry average of 0.59 in 2024 (company rates ~85% and ~80% lower than the industry average, respectively).
Negative Updates
Adjusted Net Loss and EBITDA Pressure
Despite positive adjusted EBITDA ($180M), the company recorded an adjusted net loss of $11M in Q4; adjusted EBITDA was lower than earlier 2025 levels due to a lower average realized price and immediate recognition of fixed costs from Q4 outages.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Outstanding Safety Performance
Zero Tier 1 process safety incidents over the past two years; recordable injury rates of 0.09 (2024) and 0.12 (2025) per 200,000 hours versus the chemical industry average of 0.59 in 2024 (company rates ~85% and ~80% lower than the industry average, respectively).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a Q1 average realized price of $330–$340/tonne and, with similar produced sales to Q4 (~2.4 million tonnes), expects slightly higher adjusted EBITDA versus Q4’s $180 million (Q4 ARP was $331/t and Q4 adjusted net loss was $11 million); they reiterated 2026 equity production of ~9,000,000 tonnes (North America >6.0 Mt, Chile 1.3–1.4 Mt, Egypt 0.5–0.6 Mt, Trinidad ~0.8 Mt, New Zealand <0.5 Mt), safety metrics of zero Tier‑1 process safety incidents over two years and recordable injury rates of 0.09 (2024) and 0.12 (2025) per 200,000 hours (vs. chemical industry 0.59), ownership stakes (63.1% Atlas, 50% Egypt, 50% Natgasoline, 60% Waterfront), year‑end cash of $425 million after repaying $75M in Q4 and $50M YTD (Term Loan A balance $300M) and a commitment to direct all free cash flow to repay Term Loan A, a $30M synergy target for 2026 (run‑rate into 2027), ~50% gas hedging in North America, and close monitoring of Middle East supply disruption (Iran ~9–10 Mt/yr, other Gulf ~9–10 Mt/yr, internationally traded market ~55 Mt) that has pushed Chinese spot >$300/t and European spot near $400/t.Methanex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
57
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.65B | 3.72B | 3.72B | 4.31B | 4.41B |
| Gross Profit | 1.30B | 710.42M | 655.40M | 865.09M | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 925.00M | 798.42M | 794.81M | 983.03M | 1.08B |
| Net Income | 81.27M | 163.99M | 174.14M | 353.83M | 482.36M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.27B | 6.60B | 6.43B | 6.63B | 6.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 428.05M | 891.91M | 458.01M | 857.75M | 932.07M |
| Total Debt | 3.50B | 3.23B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.55B | 4.22B | 4.25B | 4.20B | 4.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.44B | 2.09B | 1.93B | 2.11B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 731.56M | 563.11M | 211.82M | 400.38M | 748.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 832.29M | 737.18M | 660.27M | 977.76M | 993.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.38B | -99.74M | -508.58M | -553.14M | -253.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.09M | -203.55M | -551.42M | -508.53M | -643.09M |
Methanex Technical Analysis
Positive
82.37
Price Trends
68.81
Positive
61.24
Positive
54.99
Positive
Market Momentum
3.36
Negative
62.78
Neutral
93.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.64, above the 50-day MA of 68.81, and above the 200-day MA of 54.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MX.
Methanex Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$666.17M | 3.48 | 30.02% | ― | 20.52% | 1196.33% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.82B | 11.01 | 18.28% | 4.73% | 10.20% | -11.22% | |
63 Neutral | C$6.37B | 35.38 | 9.35% | 1.87% | -0.65% | 46.15% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MX
Methanex
82.37
31.79
62.86%
TSE:CHE.UN
Chemtrade Logistics
16.06
6.87
74.77%
TSE:IFOS
Itafos
3.43
1.24
56.76%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.