Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX)
TSX:MX
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Methanex
(TSX:MX)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$96.00
▲(29.31% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (strong cash generation but weak/volatile profitability and leverage risk) and strong technical trend/momentum. Earnings call guidance is supportive with expectations for materially stronger Q2 results and continued deleveraging, while valuation is held back by the negative P/E and only modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility independent of accounting earnings. Over 2–6 months this supports debt paydown, needed maintenance capex, and selective returns to shareholders, reducing execution risk during price cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High debt relative to equity heightens vulnerability to methanol price swings and operational disruptions. Even with deleveraging plans, elevated leverage constrains flexibility for M&A, capex, or dividends and increases downside risk if cash flows weaken over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility independent of accounting earnings. Over 2–6 months this supports debt paydown, needed maintenance capex, and selective returns to shareholders, reducing execution risk during price cycles.
Read all positive factors
Methanex (MX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.37B
Dividend Yield1.87%
Average Volume (3M)212.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-1.57%
EPS Growth-114.04%
CountryCA
Employees1,415
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.48
Shares Outstanding77,364,265
10 Day Avg. Volume143,070
30 Day Avg. Volume212,631
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio3.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$98.41Price Target Upside32.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)12.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.55B
Methanex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Methanex Corporation produces and supplies methanol in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and South America. The company also purchases methanol produced by others under methanol offtake contracts and on the spot market. In addition, it owns...
How the Company Makes Money
Methanex makes money primarily by producing and selling methanol. Its core revenue stream is methanol sales volumes multiplied by prevailing methanol prices, with realized pricing influenced by regional supply-demand conditions and the company’s g...
Methanex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously optimistic near-term outlook: strong Q1 results, a pronounced and favorable spike in methanol prices with management expecting materially higher Q2 earnings and cash flow, solid cash position and clear deleveraging plans, and strategic advantages such as owned shipping and ammonia price upside. Offsetting this optimism are meaningful operational and geopolitical risks (Middle East supply uncertainty), rising input and freight costs that will partly flow into results with a lag, localized production risks (Chile, Trinidad, New Zealand), and temporary integration cost carry. On balance, the potential upside from much higher prices and deleveraging progress outweigh the highlighted risks in the short term, though the company emphasizes continued uncertainty and monitoring.Positive Updates
Q1 Financial Results
Average realized price of $351/tonne; produced methanol sales of ~2.2 million tonnes; adjusted EBITDA of $220 million; adjusted net income of $23 million. Cash on balance sheet nearly $380 million and $60 million of Term Loan A repaid in Q1.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Supply Disruption and Uncertainty
Conflict in the Middle East has significantly reduced roughly 20 million tonnes/year of Middle East methanol supply since March, creating supply uncertainty. Management warns disruption could be prolonged and the extent/duration of damage to regional infrastructure is unclear.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q1 Financial Results
Average realized price of $351/tonne; produced methanol sales of ~2.2 million tonnes; adjusted EBITDA of $220 million; adjusted net income of $23 million. Cash on balance sheet nearly $380 million and $60 million of Term Loan A repaid in Q1.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Methanex guided to materially stronger Q2 earnings and cash flow versus Q1 (which had a $351/tonne average realized price, ~2.2 million tonnes of produced methanol sales, $220 million adjusted EBITDA and $23 million adjusted net income), noting April–May realized prices of roughly $500–$525/tonne and saying if that holds through June with produced sales similar to Q1 they expect a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA; operational metrics cited included total equity Q1 production of 2.4 million tonnes (Geismar 934k, Beaumont [inaudible] in Q1, NatGasoline equity 203k, Chile 398k, New Zealand 158k) and 2026 equity production guidance of 9 million tonnes, while financial priorities are deleveraging (Q1 repaid $60 million of Term Loan A, ending cash ~ $380 million, and they expect to repay the remaining ~$290 million term loan this quarter and then target the 2027 bond with most free cash flow plus selective buybacks), with tax guidance at a 25% rate (cash vs. deferred moving toward ~50/50 in a higher‑price environment), a ~45‑day inventory lag (30–40 days of which will flow into Q3), higher working capital driven by receivables, elevated ocean freight and integration dynamics (OCI synergies ~ $30 million with double IT costs in 2026 and synergies phasing from Jan‑2027), and asset‑specific cautions (planning to idle one Chile plant mid‑Q2; Trinidad gas contract up Sept; New Zealand faces structural gas challenges).Methanex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.66B | 3.65B | 3.72B | 3.72B | 4.31B | 4.41B |
| Gross Profit | 437.92M | 1.30B | 710.42M | 655.40M | 865.09M | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 818.35M | 925.00M | 798.42M | 794.81M | 983.03M | 1.08B |
| Net Income | -46.10M | 81.27M | 163.99M | 174.14M | 353.83M | 482.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.21B | 7.27B | 6.60B | 6.43B | 6.63B | 6.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 379.29M | 428.05M | 891.91M | 458.01M | 857.75M | 932.07M |
| Total Debt | 3.46B | 3.50B | 3.23B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.51B | 4.55B | 4.22B | 4.25B | 4.20B | 4.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.41B | 2.44B | 2.09B | 1.93B | 2.11B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 594.78M | 731.56M | 563.11M | 211.82M | 400.38M | 748.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 668.12M | 832.29M | 737.18M | 660.27M | 977.76M | 993.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.33B | -1.38B | -99.74M | -508.58M | -553.14M | -253.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -40.71M | 73.09M | -203.55M | -551.42M | -508.53M | -643.09M |
Methanex Technical Analysis
Neutral
74.24
Price Trends
74.06
Positive
66.05
Positive
57.65
Positive
Market Momentum
1.25
Positive
43.98
Neutral
27.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 74.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.83, above the 50-day MA of 74.06, and above the 200-day MA of 57.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:MX.
Methanex Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | C$545.75M | 75.16 | 24.00% | ― | 12.16% | -19.44% | |
67 Neutral | C$6.37B | -86.02 | 3.23% | 1.87% | -1.57% | -114.04% | |
63 Neutral | C$1.98B | 11.01 | 18.28% | 4.73% | 11.79% | 13.26% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MX
Methanex
82.38
37.99
85.57%
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22.71%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.