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Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX)
TSX:MX
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Methanex
(TSX:MX)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$53.00
▼(-15.52% Downside)
Methanex's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong profitability but declining revenue growth and high leverage. The technical analysis indicates bearish sentiment, while the valuation is attractive. The positive earnings call, highlighting successful asset integration and increased production, offsets some concerns, resulting in a moderate overall score.
Positive Factors
Successful Asset Integration
The integration of new assets enhances production capacity and operational efficiency, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning.
Strong Cash Position
A robust cash position provides financial flexibility for strategic investments, debt reduction, and resilience against market fluctuations.
Increased Production
Increased production capacity supports revenue growth and market share expansion, strengthening Methanex's position in the methanol industry.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
A significant decline in revenue growth poses risks to long-term financial health and may impact the company's ability to invest in future growth.
High Leverage
High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, affecting long-term sustainability.
Gas Supply Challenges
Ongoing gas supply issues may limit production capacity and impact operational efficiency, posing a risk to consistent output and profitability.
Methanex (MX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.85B
Dividend Yield1.87%
Average Volume (3M)212.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)1.80
Revenue Growth-0.65%
EPS Growth46.15%
CountryCA
Employees1,415
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding77,339,520
10 Day Avg. Volume143,070
30 Day Avg. Volume212,631
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.77
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.90
P/FCF Ratio5.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$69.66Price Target Upside11.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Methanex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMethanex Corporation produces and supplies methanol in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and South America. The company also purchases methanol produced by others under methanol offtake contracts and on the spot market. In addition, it owns and leases storage and terminal facilities. The company owns and manages a fleet of approximately 30 ocean-going vessels. It serves chemical and petrochemical producers. Methanex Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyMethanex generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of methanol. The company's revenue model is largely based on the volume of methanol sold and the prevailing market prices of methanol, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics. Key revenue streams include direct sales of methanol to industrial customers in various sectors, including automotive, construction, and energy. Additionally, Methanex benefits from long-term supply agreements and contracts with large customers, which provide stability and predictability in revenue. The company's strategic partnerships with various stakeholders in the methanol industry also contribute to its earnings by enhancing its market reach and operational efficiency.
Methanex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted successful integration and high operations of newly acquired assets, along with a strong financial position. However, these positives were tempered by flat global demand, gas supply challenges, and inventory build in China.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Integration of New Assets
Successfully integrated newly acquired Beaumont and Natgasoline plants, operating at high rates and producing a combined 482,000 tonnes of methanol and 92,000 tonnes of ammonia.
Increased Production
Methanex production in the third quarter was higher compared to the second quarter, with full contribution from new assets and increased production from Geismar, Medicine Hat, and New Zealand.
Positive Financial Position
Ended the third quarter with a strong cash position of $413 million on the balance sheet and repaid $125 million of the Term Loan A facility.
High Operating Rates and Utilization
Industry operating rates were high with the Atlantic at 80%, Pacific ex-China at 75%, and China at 70%.
Negative Updates
Flat Global Methanol Demand
Global methanol demand was relatively flat in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.
Gas Supply Challenges
Gas supply availability in New Zealand and Egypt continues to be challenging, impacting production rates.
Inventory Build in China
Increased supply from Iran led to an inventory build in coastal markets in China.
Deleveraging Focus
Continued focus on deleveraging through repayment of the Term Loan A facility, with $350 million remaining to be repaid.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Methanex Corporation reported an average realized methanol price of $345 per tonne, with sales of approximately 1.9 million tonnes of produced methanol, generating an adjusted EBITDA of $191 million and an adjusted net income of $0.06 per share. This quarter's adjusted EBITDA improved compared to the second quarter, primarily due to higher sales volumes, even though the average realized price was lower. The company highlighted a structured integration plan for its newly acquired assets, including the Beaumont and Natgasoline facilities, which produced a combined 482,000 tonnes of methanol and 92,000 tonnes of ammonia. Methanex anticipates a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter, driven by higher production levels and expected pricing between $335 and $345 per tonne. The company is also focused on deleveraging, aiming to repay $350 million of its Term Loan A facility, while maintaining a robust cash position of $413 million at the end of the third quarter.Methanex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Methanex's financial performance is mixed. While profitability and cash flow metrics are relatively strong, the significant decline in revenue growth and high leverage pose potential risks. The company demonstrates operational efficiency and decent returns on equity, but the high debt levels and declining sales growth warrant caution.Income Statement
Methanex's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin of 24.79% and net profit margin of 7.04% indicate moderate profitability, but the revenue growth rate is negative at -49.3%, reflecting a significant decline in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively healthy at 15.88% and 27.01%, respectively, suggesting efficient operations despite the revenue drop.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.43, indicating significant leverage. However, the return on equity (ROE) is reasonable at 11.23%, showing that the company is generating decent returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 34.14%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability.Cash Flow
Methanex's cash flow statement is relatively strong, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.40, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.84, showing effective cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative at -4.85%, pointing to a decline in cash generation.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.56B | 3.72B | 3.72B | 4.31B | 4.41B | 2.65B |
| Gross Profit | 813.91M | 710.42M | 655.40M | 865.09M | 1.08B | 294.84M |
| EBITDA | 945.63M | 798.42M | 794.81M | 983.03M | 1.08B | 334.53M |
| Net Income | 213.78M | 163.99M | 174.14M | 353.83M | 482.36M | -125.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.52B | 6.60B | 6.43B | 6.63B | 6.09B | 5.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 412.97M | 891.91M | 458.01M | 857.75M | 932.07M | 833.84M |
| Total Debt | 3.61B | 3.23B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.88B | 3.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.65B | 4.22B | 4.25B | 4.20B | 4.13B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.57B | 2.09B | 1.93B | 2.11B | 1.68B | 1.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 869.54M | 563.11M | 211.82M | 400.38M | 748.49M | 119.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 998.42M | 737.18M | 660.27M | 977.76M | 993.93M | 461.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.34B | -99.74M | -508.58M | -553.14M | -253.05M | -278.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 248.68M | -203.55M | -551.42M | -508.53M | -643.09M | 234.06M |
Methanex Technical Analysis
Positive
62.74
Price Trends
52.59
Positive
51.91
Positive
48.48
Positive
Market Momentum
2.35
Negative
79.24
Negative
97.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.63, above the 50-day MA of 52.59, and above the 200-day MA of 48.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.24 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MX.
Methanex Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$1.80B | 15.71 | 14.30% | 4.73% | 10.20% | -11.22% | |
71 Outperform | C$591.30M | 3.33 | 33.41% | ― | 20.52% | 1196.33% | |
66 Neutral | C$4.85B | 14.51 | 9.35% | 1.87% | -0.65% | 46.15% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MX
Methanex
62.74
-5.09
-7.50%
TSE:CHE.UN
Chemtrade Logistics
15.63
5.99
62.14%
TSE:IFOS
Itafos
3.06
1.18
62.33%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.