Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX)
TSX:MX
Top Page
Methanex
(TSX:MX)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$52.00
â–²(9.54% Upside)
Positive Factors
Acquisition Benefits
The acquisition of OCI’s methanol and ammonia assets in the US and Europe is anticipated to benefit Methanex by potentially increasing its EBITDA by $150-200 million.
Operational Efficiency
Stronger and more consistent operating rates for all Geismar operations are expected over the next two years, resulting in higher production and lower average costs.
Sales Strategy
The sales mix is expected to shift from lower-priced Asia/China to the higher-priced Americas and Europe markets.
Negative Factors
Gas Supply Issues
Lower gas availability in Egypt due to hot weather and gas cuts from Israel impacts production volumes.
Interest Rates and Oil Prices
Methanol demand is currently held back by high interest rates and low oil prices.
Unplanned Outages
Methanex's methanol plant in Louisiana was negatively impacted by an unplanned outage.
Methanex (MX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$3.17B
Dividend Yield2.19%
Average Volume (3M)185.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth2.80%
EPS Growth79.30%
CountryCA
Employees1,415
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength60
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.34
Shares Outstanding67,395,210
10 Day Avg. Volume244,381
30 Day Avg. Volume185,073
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.77
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.90
P/FCF Ratio5.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.30Price Target Upside35.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
Methanex Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMethanex Corporation is a global leader in the production and supply of methanol, a critical chemical used in various industrial applications, including the manufacture of plastics, chemicals, and fuels. Headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, Methanex operates production facilities across multiple countries, including the United States, Chile, and New Zealand. The company serves a diverse customer base in sectors such as automotive, construction, and consumer goods, enhancing its presence in the methanol market through efficient operations and strategic partnerships.
How the Company Makes MoneyMethanex generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of methanol to a wide range of industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on the sale of methanol at market-driven prices, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics, raw material costs, and global economic conditions. Key revenue streams include direct sales to customers and long-term contracts that provide stability and predictability in cash flows. Additionally, Methanex benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach. The company's investment in efficient production technology and its ability to respond to market trends also play a crucial role in maximizing profitability.
Methanex Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 4.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative developments. Highlights include the successful acquisition of OCI's methanol business and increased global demand, especially in China. However, there are notable challenges such as decreased average realized prices, production constraints in New Zealand and Egypt, and reduced EBITDA projections due to these constraints. While the strategic acquisition and increased demand are positive, the operational and financial challenges present a balanced outlook.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Acquisition of OCI's Methanol Business
Closed acquisition of OCI's methanol business, adding strategic assets in Beaumont, Texas. Integration is proceeding as planned, enhancing production portfolio with stable natural gas supply.
Increased Global Methanol Demand
Estimated global methanol demand rose by approximately 4% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, driven by higher demand in China.
Strong Operational Performance at Geismar
Geismar production was higher in Q2, with successful restart of G3 in early May. G3 operated at over 90% capacity after addressing previous challenges.
Improved Production Capacity in Chile
Chile plants operated at full capacity for September 2024 through April 2025, achieving the highest production rate since 2007.
Negative Updates
Decreased Average Realized Price and Adjusted EBITDA
Average realized price decreased to $374 per tonne in Q2 from over $400 in Q1, leading to lower adjusted EBITDA of $183 million compared to previous quarter.
Production Challenges in New Zealand and Egypt
Gas constraints led to lower production in New Zealand and Egypt, with a temporary idling of operations in New Zealand and curtailments due to import disruptions in Egypt.
Reduced Production Forecast for New Zealand
New Zealand production forecast reduced to approximately 400,000 tonnes for 2025 due to gas supply challenges.
Lower Projected EBITDA Due to New Zealand Adjustments
Projected run rate EBITDA guidance reduced by $50 million due to reduced production expectations in New Zealand.
Company Guidance
In the Methanex Corporation's second quarter 2025 results conference call, several key metrics were highlighted. The company reported an average realized price of $374 per tonne and produced sales of approximately 1.5 million tonnes, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $183 million and an adjusted net income of $0.97 per share. Methanex completed the acquisition of OCI's methanol business, which includes two world-scale methanol facilities in Beaumont, Texas. This strategic acquisition is expected to expand Methanex's production portfolio. As of the end of the second quarter, Methanex had $485 million in cash and access to a $600 million undrawn revolving credit facility. The company projects higher adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025, anticipating higher produced sales despite a lower forecasted average realized price. Methanex's expected equity production guidance for 2025 is approximately 8 million tonnes, inclusive of the Beaumont facility and its share from the Natgasoline plant.Methanex Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Methanex presents a solid financial profile with strong operational margins and cash flow management. While revenue growth is a concern, the company effectively manages costs and leverage, maintaining a healthy balance sheet. Continued focus on revenue enhancement and shareholder equity strengthening could improve overall financial health.Income Statement
The company shows a consistent gross profit margin with a TTM of 22.88%, indicating stable cost control. However, the net profit margin is relatively lower at 6.02%, suggesting room for improvement in cost efficiencies or pricing strategies. Revenue has slightly declined by 0.51% from the previous year, indicating a potential challenge in market demand or competitive pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 13.39% and 24.51% respectively, highlighting solid operational performance.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a balanced debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44, suggesting moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 9.92%, reflecting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is at 33.74%, indicating a stable financial structure but with room for strengthening equity to asset ratio.68
Positive
Cash Flow
The free cash flow growth is impressive at 41.24%, indicating effective cash management and operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 4.35, suggesting strong cash generation capability relative to accounting profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 3.57, underscoring robust cash flow conversion which supports potential reinvestments and debt servicing.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.58B | 3.72B | 3.72B | 4.31B | 4.41B | 2.65B |
| Gross Profit | 886.70M | 710.42M | 655.40M | 865.09M | 1.08B | 294.84M |
| EBITDA | 970.42M | 798.42M | 794.81M | 1.09B | 1.17B | 334.53M |
| Net Income | 251.85M | 163.99M | 174.14M | 353.83M | 482.36M | -125.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.75B | 6.60B | 6.43B | 6.63B | 6.09B | 5.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 485.38M | 891.91M | 458.01M | 857.75M | 932.07M | 833.84M |
| Total Debt | 3.76B | 3.23B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.88B | 3.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.83B | 4.22B | 4.25B | 4.20B | 4.13B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.62B | 2.09B | 1.93B | 2.11B | 1.68B | 1.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 913.89M | 563.11M | 211.82M | 400.38M | 748.49M | 119.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.08B | 737.18M | 660.27M | 977.76M | 993.93M | 461.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.38B | -99.74M | -508.58M | -553.14M | -253.05M | -278.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 352.53M | -203.55M | -551.42M | -508.53M | -643.09M | 234.06M |
Methanex Technical Analysis
Positive
47.47
Price Trends
46.66
Positive
45.47
Positive
54.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Negative
54.23
Neutral
55.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.13, above the 50-day MA of 46.66, and below the 200-day MA of 54.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MX.
Methanex Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
TSE:MX
Methanex
47.47
-12.29
-20.57%
TSE:CHE.UN
Chemtrade Logistics
12.24
2.98
32.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.