Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX)
TSX:MX
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Earnings Data
Report Date
Aug 05, 2026TBA (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q2)Consensus EPS Forecast
5.33Last Year’s EPS
1.34Same Quarter Last Year
Moderate Buy
Based on 8 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call presented a cautiously optimistic near-term outlook: strong Q1 results, a pronounced and favorable spike in methanol prices with management expecting materially higher Q2 earnings and cash flow, solid cash position and clear deleveraging plans, and strategic advantages such as owned shipping and ammonia price upside. Offsetting this optimism are meaningful operational and geopolitical risks (Middle East supply uncertainty), rising input and freight costs that will partly flow into results with a lag, localized production risks (Chile, Trinidad, New Zealand), and temporary integration cost carry. On balance, the potential upside from much higher prices and deleveraging progress outweigh the highlighted risks in the short term, though the company emphasizes continued uncertainty and monitoring.Company Guidance
Q1 Financial Results
Average realized price of $351/tonne; produced methanol sales of ~2.2 million tonnes; adjusted EBITDA of $220 million; adjusted net income of $23 million. Cash on balance sheet nearly $380 million and $60 million of Term Loan A repaid in Q1.
Production and Operations
Total equity methanol production of 2.4 million tonnes in Q1 (slightly higher vs Q4). U.S. Geismar production 934k tonnes and NatGasoline JV equity share 203k tonnes. Egypt plant operated at full rates; Chile produced 398k tonnes and New Zealand produced 158k tonnes.
Material Pricing Upswing and Q2 Outlook
Rapid methanol price escalation through March–April due to Middle East disruptions. Management estimates realized price of ~$500–$525/tonne for April and May (an increase of roughly +42% to +50% vs Q1 realized price of $351/tonne). Company expects significantly stronger earnings and cash flows in Q2 versus Q1 and forecasts a meaningful increase in adjusted EBITDA if prices hold through June at similar volumes.
Deleveraging and Capital Allocation Plan
Plan to repay remaining term loan of ~ $290 million in the quarter and then direct majority of free cash flow to repayment of the 2027 bond; evaluating smaller share buybacks only if accretive. Demonstrated deleveraging with $60M repayment already completed in Q1.
Strategic and Structural Advantages
Advantaged asset base operating reliably; ownership of shipping fleet provides competitive advantage vs spot freight market volatility. Management reiterates 2026 equity production guide of 9.0 million tonnes (subject to quarter-to-quarter variance).
Ammonia Earnings Upside
Ammonia production ~80k tonnes/quarter. Tampa price used at acquisition was ~$450/tonne; current price ~$775/tonne implying uplift of ~$20M+ EBITDA per quarter vs prior baseline—material incremental contribution to earnings.
OCI Integration and Synergies
OCI integration progressing with estimated synergies of about $30 million. Some synergy realization already achieved; temporary higher fixed-cost carry in 2026 with expected synergies beginning January 2027.
TSE:MX Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
TSE:MX Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Apr 29, 2026 | C$86.65 | C$88.88 | +2.57% |
Mar 05, 2026 | C$77.71 | C$67.28 | -13.42% |
Oct 29, 2025 | C$47.10 | C$47.01 | -0.19% |
Jul 30, 2025 | C$44.87 | C$45.72 | +1.89% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX) report earnings?
Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX) is schdueled to report earning on Aug 05, 2026, TBA (Confirmed).
What is Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX) earnings time?
Methanex Corp. (TSE:MX) earnings time is at Aug 05, 2026, TBA (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
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What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is TSE:MX EPS forecast?
TSE:MX EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q2) is 5.33.