Mountain Province Diamonds (TSE:MPVD)
TSX:MPVD
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Mountain Province Diamonds
(TSX:MPVD)
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Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:
C$0.05
▼(-20.00% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/10/26
The score is held near the low end primarily due to sharply deteriorating financial performance (widening losses, higher leverage, and negative cash flow) and a liquidity/going-concern overhang emphasized on the earnings call. Technicals are also bearish with price below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation offers limited support because earnings are negative and no dividend yield is provided.
Positive Factors
Access to highest-grade ore
Securing access to the 5034 NEX high‑grade ore is a durable operational advantage: higher grade ore materially raises carats recovered per tonne and improves realized value per tonne. This structural improvement supports longer‑term margin recovery and production efficiency as the mine transitions into higher‑grade zones.
Negative Factors
Large net loss and impairment
A very large annual loss and a six‑figure impairment signal substantive capital erosion and reduced carrying value of assets. This weakens equity, constrains reinvestment capacity, increases the chance of future write‑downs, and raises the bar for returning to sustainable profitability even as operational metrics improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Access to highest-grade ore
Securing access to the 5034 NEX high‑grade ore is a durable operational advantage: higher grade ore materially raises carats recovered per tonne and improves realized value per tonne. This structural improvement supports longer‑term margin recovery and production efficiency as the mine transitions into higher‑grade zones.
Read all positive factors
Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$11.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)124.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.93
Revenue Growth-45.17%
EPS Growth-100.74%
CountryCA
Employees8
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.71
Shares Outstanding212,360,340
10 Day Avg. Volume103,243
30 Day Avg. Volume124,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.08
P/FCF Ratio-0.09
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mountain Province Diamonds Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. focuses on the mining and marketing of rough diamonds worldwide. Its primary asset is its 49% interest in the Gahcho Kué diamond mine comprising mining leases covering an area of 5,216 hectares; and holds a 100% int...
How the Company Makes Money
MPVD makes money primarily by selling its attributable share of rough diamonds produced from the Gahcho Kué mine. Revenue is generated when diamonds are recovered from ore by the mine’s processing facilities and then sold as uncut (rough) diamonds...
Mountain Province Diamonds Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 01, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed operational picture: strong safety and record operational execution (notably Q4 grade and production gains and access to the high‑grade NEX ore), but the company faces severe financial stress driven by weak diamond prices, lower sales volumes, inventory write‑downs, a large impairment and liquidity risks (unpaid cash calls, increased debt and small closing cash). Market headwinds (tariffs and geopolitical events) exacerbate the financial pressures and create material uncertainty over recovery timing. While operational progress and shareholder/lender support are positives, the magnitude of the financial losses, impairment and liquidity constraints dominate the outlook.Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
Total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 2.2 in 2025 (best-ever) versus 2.3 in 2024, highlighting strong safety performance across operations.
Negative Updates
Material Net Losses and Large Impairment
Full-year net loss after tax of approximately $279.5 million for 2025 (compared to a profit of $18.4 million in 2024); a material impairment charge of $103 million (net $90M after deferred tax recovery) was recorded in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Safety Performance
Total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 2.2 in 2025 (best-ever) versus 2.3 in 2024, highlighting strong safety performance across operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call’s guidance stressed operational progress and a focus on liquidity: safety performance was best-ever with a TRIF of 2.2 (down from 2.3 in 2024); 2025 production was ~2.5M carats Jan–Sep at <1 ct/t and nearly 1.9M carats in Q4 at 2.25 ct/t with daily production rising from 9,000 to 25,000 carats, and mining moved 38.7 million tonnes in 2025 (≈17% above 2024) with access to the high‑grade 5034 NEX ore body; commercially, Q4 ASP was USD 52/ct and 2025 ASP USD 59/ct (‑18% YoY) with volumes down 31% YoY, cash production costs of $76/ct and $93/t (vs $60/ct and $77/t in 2024), Q4 loss from mine operations $50.2M and FY $154M, a $103M impairment (net $90M after deferred tax), adjusted EBITDA $4.8M (3% margin) vs $91M (34%), inventory ~$151M (ore stockpile 2.3M tonnes, down 1.8M tonnes year‑on‑year; rough inventory up ~280k carats at $41/ct carrying value), PPE $518.5M year‑end, working capital negative ~$70M (improved from ‑$120M), long‑term liabilities $479M, bridge credit USD 40M and working capital facility drawn (USD 23.6M), unpaid cash calls $30.6M and accrued interest $24M, closing cash $2.3M — and management reiterated that recovery is contingent on tariff resolution and improved geopolitical stability.Mountain Province Diamonds Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 155.72M | 267.67M | 328.63M | 388.85M | 308.72M |
| Gross Profit | -157.60M | 93.21M | 173.00M | 170.53M | 152.90M |
| EBITDA | -62.54M | 79.33M | 72.23M | 197.99M | 376.85M |
| Net Income | -279.53M | -80.83M | -43.67M | 49.20M | 276.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 766.75M | 838.54M | 932.21M | 898.54M | 877.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.33M | 11.56M | 29.67M | 17.25M | 25.00M |
| Total Debt | 445.50M | 352.37M | 306.88M | 317.40M | 376.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 762.30M | 557.58M | 571.21M | 491.38M | 526.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.44M | 280.96M | 361.00M | 407.16M | 350.74M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -131.50M | -1.03M | 60.11M | 112.20M | 68.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -19.62M | 79.43M | 143.41M | 172.63M | 112.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -114.47M | -80.33M | -85.15M | -64.64M | -53.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 130.03M | -15.95M | -24.32M | -115.50M | -69.79M |
Mountain Province Diamonds Technical Analysis
Negative
0.06
Price Trends
0.07
Negative
0.06
Negative
0.05
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
39.49
Neutral
33.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MPVD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.07, and above the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MPVD.
Mountain Province Diamonds Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
40 Underperform | C$11.68M | -0.02 | -74.45% | ― | -45.17% | -100.74% | |
| ― | C$1.69M | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | C$379.58M | 2.49 | 8.77% | ― | 28.12% | ― | |
43 Neutral | C$1.92M | -16.06 | -193.26% | ― | ― | -187.50% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.06
0.00
0.00%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
-0.01
-50.00%
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.26
-0.10
-28.17%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
>-0.01
-33.33%
Mountain Province Diamonds Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Swings to Deep 2025 Loss on Impairment and Weaker Prices
Negative
Apr 1, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds reported a steep deterioration in 2025 financial performance despite operational progress in some areas, as weaker diamond prices and an impairment dragged results deep into the red. Full-year sales fell to $155.7 millio...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mountain Province Diamonds Delays Q4 and 2025 Results, Resets Earnings Call
Negative
Mar 24, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds has postponed the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results due to a delay in completing its year-end audit. The company now plans to publish the figures after markets close on March 31, 2026, al...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mountain Province Diamonds Extends Key Loans as De Beers JV Cash Strain Persists
Negative
Mar 17, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds has secured a short-term extension of its US$40 million term loan and US$33 million working capital facility with related-party lender Dunebridge Worldwide, pushing both maturities to April 30, 2026. The move aims to eas...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Mountain Province Diamonds Pauses Tuzo Phase 3 and Faces JV Cash Calls Amid Sector Weakness
Negative
Feb 10, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds, a Canadian producer with a 49% stake in the Gahcho Kué Mine joint venture with De Beers, has named Board Chair Jonathan Comerford as acting president and CEO following Mark Wall’s departure, opting not to hir...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.