Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$13.80M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 124.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.20
• Revenue Growth: -45.17%
• EPS Growth: -100.74%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 8
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): -0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 212,360,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 103,243
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 124,824
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.09
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.06 ▲(6.67% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative margins, high leverage) and a cautious earnings outlook marked by large losses and liquidity dependence. Technicals are a relative positive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, but this is not enough to offset fundamental and profitability risks; valuation is also unattractive due to negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Access to higher‑grade ore

Accessing the higher-grade 5034 NEX ore materially raises recovered carats per tonne and should lower unit costs over coming quarters. Structurally, higher-grade feed can restore throughput economics, support margin recovery, and extend value extraction from the existing asset base into 2026 and beyond.

Improving safety performance

Sustained reductions in injury frequency signal stronger operational controls and workforce stability. Better safety reduces downtime, lowers incident-related costs and insurance exposure, and supports consistent production rates—enhancing the mine's long-term reliability and reducing operational disruption risk.

Recent free cash flow improvement

A near-term material uptick in TTM free cash flow demonstrates an improving ability to convert operations into liquidity. If sustained, stronger FCF supports debt servicing, capital for higher‑grade development, and reduces reliance on external funding—improving financial flexibility over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

High financial leverage

A debt-to-equity near 1.8 creates high fixed financing obligations that amplify commodity-price sensitivity and reduce resilience to prolonged weak prices. Elevated leverage limits strategic optionality, increases refinancing risk, and can force asset sales or dilution if cash generation underperforms over the medium term.

Declining revenue and negative margins

Sustained top-line decline and persistent negative margins indicate structural demand or pricing pressure in the diamond cycle and operational inefficiencies. Continued losses erode equity, deplete reserves, and limit reinvestment capacity, raising the risk that operational improvements won't translate into durable profitability.

Reliance on shareholder liquidity

Ongoing dependence on a major shareholder and bridge facilities highlights weak independent cash generation and financing fragility. This reliance can constrain governance independence, raise refinancing and counterparty risk, and increase the chance of distressed funding outcomes if market or commodity conditions worsen.

Mountain Province Diamonds Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. focuses on the mining and marketing of rough diamonds worldwide. Its primary asset is its 49% interest in the Gahcho Kué diamond mine comprising mining leases covering an area of 5,216 hectares; and holds a 100% interest in the Kennady North project consisting of 22 federal leases and 97 claims covering an area of 107,000 hectares located in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The company was formerly known as Mountain Province Mining Inc. and changed its name to Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. in October 2000. Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Mountain Province Diamonds generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of diamonds from its Gahcho Kué mine. The company sells its diamonds through various channels, including direct sales and auctions, targeting both the wholesale and retail markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of rough diamonds, which are evaluated based on carat weight, quality, and market demand. Additionally, MPVD benefits from partnerships with established diamond manufacturers and retailers, which help to secure a market for its gemstones. The company's earnings are influenced by global diamond market trends, pricing fluctuations, and the operational efficiency of its mining activities.

Mountain Province Diamonds Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals: revenue is down sharply (TTM growth -19.9%) with negative gross and net margins. Leverage is high (debt-to-equity 1.78) with negative ROE, and cash generation is volatile with weak conversion despite a recent TTM FCF improvement.

Income Statement

Mountain Province Diamonds has experienced significant revenue decline with a negative growth rate of -19.9% in TTM. The company is facing challenges with profitability as indicated by negative gross profit and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth and profitability, with recent periods showing a downturn.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78 in TTM, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is negative, reflecting losses impacting shareholder value. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing. Historical trends indicate increasing leverage and declining equity, posing financial stability risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a substantial free cash flow decline, although there was a recent growth of 88.96% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. Historical data shows volatility in cash flow metrics, with recent improvements overshadowed by overall negative trends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	161.98M	267.67M	328.63M	388.85M	308.72M	226.99M
Gross Profit	-48.97M	93.21M	173.00M	170.53M	152.90M	-1.49M
EBITDA	-55.42M	79.33M	72.23M	197.99M	376.85M	-165.40M
Net Income	-190.16M	-80.83M	-43.67M	49.20M	276.17M	-263.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	806.74M	838.54M	932.21M	898.54M	877.50M	595.33M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.89M	11.56M	29.67M	17.25M	25.00M	35.15M
Total Debt	441.70M	352.37M	306.88M	317.40M	376.04M	407.69M
Total Liabilities	650.65M	557.58M	571.21M	491.38M	526.76M	521.63M
Stockholders Equity	156.09M	280.96M	361.00M	407.16M	350.74M	73.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-128.83M	-1.03M	60.11M	112.20M	68.76M	12.91M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.57M	79.43M	143.41M	172.63M	112.58M	51.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-122.48M	-80.33M	-85.15M	-64.64M	-53.74M	-53.69M
Financing Cash Flow	94.94M	-15.95M	-24.32M	-115.50M	-69.79M	2.01M

Mountain Province Diamonds Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MPVD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, above the 50-day MA of 0.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MPVD.

Mountain Province Diamonds Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUC	76 Outperform	C$113.05M	1.42	21.15%	―	28.12%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MPVD	47 Neutral	C$13.80M	-0.07	-74.45%	―	-45.17%	-100.74%
TAI	43 Neutral	C$1.44M	-3.26	-193.26%	―	―	-187.50%
DMI	29 Underperform	$1.69M	―	―	―	―	―

Mountain Province Diamonds Corporate Events

Mountain Province Diamonds Amends Working Capital Facility Amid Financial Challenges

Mountain Province Diamonds has amended the terms of its CAD33 million working capital facility with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd., extending the period for advances and repayment dates. This amendment is crucial for the company as it anticipates improved working capital from future diamond sales, and it highlights the financial challenges the company is facing, which necessitated reliance on related party transactions under financial difficulty exemptions.

Mountain Province Diamonds Announces CEO Resignation and Operational Update

Mountain Province Diamonds announced the resignation of its President & CEO, Mark Wall, who will remain until December 19, 2025, to ensure a smooth transition. The company has commenced mining the high-grade 5034-NEX orebody and completed a plant maintenance shutdown, positioning the Gahcho Kué mine for strong performance in the upcoming quarters. The Board is initiating a search for a new CEO, while the current Chairman praised Wall’s contributions during a challenging period for the company and the diamond industry.

Mountain Province Diamonds Faces Challenges in Q3 2025 Amid Market Pressures

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a challenging third quarter for 2025, with a net loss of $55.9 million and a decrease in carat sales compared to the previous year. Despite operational difficulties, the company is optimistic about future improvements in diamond grades and remains committed to safety and operational efficiency, although market conditions and tariffs continue to impact pricing.

Mountain Province Diamonds Reports Q3 2025 Production Decline and Revised Guidance

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a decrease in diamond production and sales for the third quarter of 2025, with a 16% drop in carats recovered compared to the previous year. The company revised its annual guidance downward due to lower than expected grades from ore stockpiles, resulting in increased production costs. Despite these challenges, the company anticipates higher production in the fourth quarter and 2026 due to accessing higher-grade ore. The diamond market remains impacted by trade tensions between the United States and India, affecting pricing.