Mountain Province Diamonds (TSE:MPVD)
TSX:MPVD
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Mountain Province Diamonds
(TSX:MPVD)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.06
▲(6.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/24/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative margins, high leverage) and a cautious earnings outlook marked by large losses and liquidity dependence. Technicals are a relative positive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, but this is not enough to offset fundamental and profitability risks; valuation is also unattractive due to negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Access to higher-grade ore
Accessing the higher-grade 5034 NEX ore materially improves the mine’s recovered grade and per-tonne recovered value. Over the next 2–6 months this should lift production quality and unit economics, supporting sustainable output and margin recovery if market prices stabilize.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and negative margins
A near-20% TTM revenue decline and persistently negative gross and net margins indicate structural demand or pricing weakness for the company’s product mix. This pressures the ability to cover fixed mine costs, impairs reinvestment capacity, and risks longer-term profitability without sustained price recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Access to higher-grade ore
Accessing the higher-grade 5034 NEX ore materially improves the mine’s recovered grade and per-tonne recovered value. Over the next 2–6 months this should lift production quality and unit economics, supporting sustainable output and margin recovery if market prices stabilize.
Read all positive factors
Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$10.62M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)124.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.06
Revenue Growth-45.17%
EPS Growth-100.74%
CountryCA
Employees8
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.71
Shares Outstanding212,360,340
10 Day Avg. Volume103,243
30 Day Avg. Volume124,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.09
P/FCF Ratio-23.69
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mountain Province Diamonds Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. focuses on the mining and marketing of rough diamonds worldwide. Its primary asset is its 49% interest in the Gahcho Kué diamond mine comprising mining leases covering an area of 5,216 hectares; and holds a 100% int...
How the Company Makes Money
Mountain Province Diamonds generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of diamonds from its Gahcho Kué mine. The company sells its diamonds through various channels, including direct sales and auctions, targeting both the wholesale...
Mountain Province Diamonds Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 01, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed operational picture: strong safety and record operational execution (notably Q4 grade and production gains and access to the high‑grade NEX ore), but the company faces severe financial stress driven by weak diamond prices, lower sales volumes, inventory write‑downs, a large impairment and liquidity risks (unpaid cash calls, increased debt and small closing cash). Market headwinds (tariffs and geopolitical events) exacerbate the financial pressures and create material uncertainty over recovery timing. While operational progress and shareholder/lender support are positives, the magnitude of the financial losses, impairment and liquidity constraints dominate the outlook.Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
Total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 2.2 in 2025 (best-ever) versus 2.3 in 2024, highlighting strong safety performance across operations.
Negative Updates
Material Net Losses and Large Impairment
Full-year net loss after tax of approximately $279.5 million for 2025 (compared to a profit of $18.4 million in 2024); a material impairment charge of $103 million (net $90M after deferred tax recovery) was recorded in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Safety Performance
Total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 2.2 in 2025 (best-ever) versus 2.3 in 2024, highlighting strong safety performance across operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call’s guidance stressed operational progress and a focus on liquidity: safety performance was best-ever with a TRIF of 2.2 (down from 2.3 in 2024); 2025 production was ~2.5M carats Jan–Sep at <1 ct/t and nearly 1.9M carats in Q4 at 2.25 ct/t with daily production rising from 9,000 to 25,000 carats, and mining moved 38.7 million tonnes in 2025 (≈17% above 2024) with access to the high‑grade 5034 NEX ore body; commercially, Q4 ASP was USD 52/ct and 2025 ASP USD 59/ct (‑18% YoY) with volumes down 31% YoY, cash production costs of $76/ct and $93/t (vs $60/ct and $77/t in 2024), Q4 loss from mine operations $50.2M and FY $154M, a $103M impairment (net $90M after deferred tax), adjusted EBITDA $4.8M (3% margin) vs $91M (34%), inventory ~$151M (ore stockpile 2.3M tonnes, down 1.8M tonnes year‑on‑year; rough inventory up ~280k carats at $41/ct carrying value), PPE $518.5M year‑end, working capital negative ~$70M (improved from ‑$120M), long‑term liabilities $479M, bridge credit USD 40M and working capital facility drawn (USD 23.6M), unpaid cash calls $30.6M and accrued interest $24M, closing cash $2.3M — and management reiterated that recovery is contingent on tariff resolution and improved geopolitical stability.Mountain Province Diamonds Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 161.98M | 267.67M | 328.63M | 388.85M | 308.72M | 226.99M |
| Gross Profit | -48.97M | 93.21M | 173.00M | 170.53M | 152.90M | -1.49M |
| EBITDA | -55.42M | 79.33M | 72.23M | 197.99M | 376.85M | -165.40M |
| Net Income | -190.16M | -80.83M | -43.67M | 49.20M | 276.17M | -263.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 806.74M | 838.54M | 932.21M | 898.54M | 877.50M | 595.33M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.89M | 11.56M | 29.67M | 17.25M | 25.00M | 35.15M |
| Total Debt | 441.70M | 352.37M | 306.88M | 317.40M | 376.04M | 407.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 650.65M | 557.58M | 571.21M | 491.38M | 526.76M | 521.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 156.09M | 280.96M | 361.00M | 407.16M | 350.74M | 73.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -128.83M | -1.03M | 60.11M | 112.20M | 68.76M | 12.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -6.57M | 79.43M | 143.41M | 172.63M | 112.58M | 51.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -122.48M | -80.33M | -85.15M | -64.64M | -53.74M | -53.69M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 94.94M | -15.95M | -24.32M | -115.50M | -69.79M | 2.01M |
Mountain Province Diamonds Technical Analysis
Neutral
0.06
Price Trends
0.07
Negative
0.06
Negative
0.05
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
42.44
Neutral
25.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MPVD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.07, and above the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:MPVD.
Mountain Province Diamonds Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
47 Neutral | C$10.62M | -0.04 | -74.45% | ― | -45.17% | -100.74% | |
| ― | C$1.69M | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | C$364.69M | 2.49 | 8.77% | ― | 28.12% | ― | |
43 Neutral | C$1.92M | -16.06 | -193.26% | ― | ― | -187.50% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.05
>-0.01
-16.67%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
-0.02
-60.00%
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.25
-0.13
-34.67%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
-0.02
-50.00%
Mountain Province Diamonds Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mountain Province Diamonds Amends Working Capital Facility Amid Financial Challenges
Negative
Nov 19, 2025
Mountain Province Diamonds has amended the terms of its CAD33 million working capital facility with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd., extending the period for advances and repayment dates. This amendment is crucial for the company as it anticipates impro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mountain Province Diamonds Announces CEO Resignation and Operational Update
Neutral
Nov 12, 2025
Mountain Province Diamonds announced the resignation of its President CEO, Mark Wall, who will remain until December 19, 2025, to ensure a smooth transition. The company has commenced mining the high-grade 5034-NEX orebody and completed a plant m...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Faces Challenges in Q3 2025 Amid Market Pressures
Negative
Nov 11, 2025
Mountain Province Diamonds reported a challenging third quarter for 2025, with a net loss of $55.9 million and a decrease in carat sales compared to the previous year. Despite operational difficulties, the company is optimistic about future improv...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Reports Q3 2025 Production Decline and Revised Guidance
Negative
Nov 6, 2025
Mountain Province Diamonds reported a decrease in diamond production and sales for the third quarter of 2025, with a 16% drop in carats recovered compared to the previous year. The company revised its annual guidance downward due to lower than exp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.