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Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. (TSE:MPVD)
:MPVD
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Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:MPVD

Mountain Province Diamonds

(OTC:MPVD)

Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.00
▼(-100.00%Downside)
Mountain Province Diamonds is facing significant financial challenges, with weak financial performance marked by declining revenues and high leverage. The technical analysis supports a bearish outlook, while valuation metrics highlight ongoing profitability issues. Although the earnings call provided some positive operational insights, overall sentiment remains cautious due to financial and market hurdles.

Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Mountain Province Diamonds Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMountain Province Diamonds Inc. (MPVD) is a Canadian-based diamond mining company primarily engaged in the exploration and development of diamond resources. The company's principal asset is its 49% interest in the Gahcho Kué Diamond Mine, located in Canada's Northwest Territories, which it operates in partnership with De Beers Canada, a subsidiary of De Beers Group. The Gahcho Kué Mine is one of the world's largest and richest new diamond mines, contributing significantly to the company's production and resource portfolio.
How the Company Makes MoneyMountain Province Diamonds generates revenue primarily through the sale of rough diamonds extracted from the Gahcho Kué Mine. The company conducts diamond sales through public tenders, where lots of rough diamonds are sold to the highest bidder. As a joint venture partner, Mountain Province receives a portion of the proceeds from these sales. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by diamond market conditions, such as demand, price fluctuations, and the quality and size of the diamonds produced. Strategic partnerships, particularly with De Beers Canada, enhance operational efficiencies and access to a global distribution network, further supporting the company's revenue generation.

Mountain Province Diamonds Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -28.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Despite operational improvements and early access to a higher-grade ore body, financial results were negatively impacted by lower sales, revenue decline, and higher production costs. However, successful refinancing and market optimism provide a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Safety Milestone Achieved
Gahcho Kué operations have continued lost time injury-free and have now worked more than 3.85 million hours without a lost time injury, with an improvement of around 66% from last year in the total recordable injury frequency rate.
Operational Efficiency Improvement
Total tonnes treated in Q1 2025 improved by 15% from the same period in 2024, and the total tonnes mined increased by 28% in the quarter compared to Q1 2024.
Early Access to High-Grade NEX Ore Body
Achieved early access to the NEX ore body, which is expected to improve grades with NEX returning double or triple the grade currently being processed.
Diamond Market Optimism
Positive developments in the diamond market, with expectations that the turbulence in global markets will stabilize as 2025 progresses.
Refinancing Success
Closure of refinancing transactions to address reclamation liabilities and extend the term of second lien notes to December 2027, providing immediate capital injection.
Negative Updates
Low Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million for Q1 2025 was significantly lower compared to Q1 2024.
Revenue Decline
Revenue decreased by $45 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, with lower sales volume and constrained pricing.
Inventory Write-Downs
A $10 million write-down of rough diamond inventory due to constrained pricing.
Higher Production Costs
Notably higher production costs in Q1 2025, driven by inventory write-downs and depletion of the ore stockpile.
Net Loss
Net loss after tax for Q1 2025 was $34.4 million, compared to a gain of $6.9 million in Q1 2024.
Company Guidance
During the Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. Q1 2025 conference call, CEO Mark Wall highlighted several key metrics and insights. The Gahcho Kué mine maintained a strong safety record, having worked over 3.85 million hours without a lost time injury, and the total recordable injury frequency rate improved by 66% from the previous year to 2.14. Operationally, the mine experienced a 15% increase in total tonnes treated and a 28% rise in total tonnes mined compared to Q1 2024. However, the quarter faced challenges, with a low adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million due to lower grades and depressed pricing. Despite this, early access to the higher-grade NEX ore body was achieved, promising better future yields. Financially, the company saw $44 million in turnover from 426,000 carats sold at an average price of US$72 per carat, significantly down from Q1 2024. The company also secured a refinancing arrangement, extending its second lien notes to December 2027 and announcing a new working capital facility of CAD 33 million. Reid Mackie noted a stabilization and slight rise in diamond prices and market optimism for 2025, despite ongoing tariff uncertainties. Overall, the company remains focused on safety, production, and cost control to navigate the challenging market environment.

Mountain Province Diamonds Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mountain Province Diamonds shows financial instability with declining revenues and net losses. High leverage and negative free cash flow growth raise concerns about long-term financial sustainability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio and effective operational cash flow generation.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company has experienced fluctuating revenue with recent declines, reflected in a negative revenue growth rate over the past year. Negative net income in recent years indicates profitability challenges, although gross profit margin is positive. EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, showing difficulty in maintaining consistent operational profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. However, the equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a reasonable proportion of assets financed by equity. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting concerns about generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow growth rate, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting effective cash generation from operations relative to reported losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, pointing to challenges in translating earnings into cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue267.67M328.63M388.85M308.72M226.99M
Gross Profit93.21M173.00M170.53M113.73M-1.49M
EBITDA79.33M72.23M177.24M368.81M-159.33M
Net Income-80.83M-43.67M49.20M276.17M-263.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets838.54M932.21M898.54M877.50M595.33M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.56M29.67M17.25M25.00M35.15M
Total Debt352.37M306.88M317.40M376.04M407.69M
Total Liabilities557.58M571.21M491.38M526.76M521.63M
Stockholders Equity280.96M361.00M407.16M350.74M73.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.03M60.11M112.20M68.76M12.91M
Operating Cash Flow79.43M143.41M172.63M112.58M51.75M
Investing Cash Flow-80.33M-85.15M-64.64M-53.74M-53.69M
Financing Cash Flow-15.95M-47.07M-115.50M-69.79M2.01M

Mountain Province Diamonds Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.05
Price Trends
50DMA
0.06
Negative
100DMA
0.06
Negative
200DMA
0.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
37.76
Neutral
STOCH
33.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MPVD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.06, and below the 200-day MA of 0.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MPVD.

Mountain Province Diamonds Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
C$106.44M1.6119.74%14.23%
50
Neutral
C$2.14M-1087.65%-17.78%
46
Neutral
C$11.68M-39.12%-23.22%-87.05%
44
Neutral
C$999.92M-6.64-13.68%1.83%17.55%-32.71%
29
Underperform
$2.53M107.68%
24
Underperform
C$934.57K-1207.18%83.91%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.05
-0.08
-60.00%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
-0.04
-79.17%
TSE:DIA
Margaret Lake Diamonds
0.10
-0.04
-28.57%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
-0.04
-66.67%
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.24
-0.06
-20.00%

Mountain Province Diamonds Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Corrects Q2 2024 Carat Price
Negative
Jul 14, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. announced a correction to its previously reported average selling price per carat for the second quarter of 2024. The corrected average selling price is CA$102 per carat (US$74 per carat), down from the initially reported CA$166 per carat (US$124 per carat). This correction does not affect any other information from the earlier release, but it may impact stakeholders’ perception of the company’s financial performance for that period.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Reports Decline in Q2 2025 Production and Sales
Negative
Jul 10, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a significant decrease in production and sales for Q2 2025, with carats recovered dropping by 46% compared to the previous year. Despite operational challenges due to low-grade stockpiles, the company plans to ramp up production from the NEX orebody, expecting improved grades in the coming months. The company remains optimistic about its mining performance, having mined 32% more total tonnes than in Q2 2024, and is preparing for a steady increase in production in Q3.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Mountain Province Diamonds Secures CAD$33 Million Facility and Elects New Board
Positive
May 20, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds announced the results of its 2025 annual and special shareholder meeting, where a CAD$33 million working capital facility with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd. was approved. The facility, which is part of a bridge credit agreement, will be used on a revolving basis to support the company’s operations. Shareholders also elected directors and re-appointed KPMG as auditor, indicating continued stability and governance for the company.

Private Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Mountain Province Diamonds Secures CAD$33 Million Working Capital Facility
Negative
May 14, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. has announced an amended and restated bridge credit facility agreement to secure a CAD$33 million working capital facility with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd. This facility is crucial for the company’s 2025 funding strategy, addressing immediate financial needs with an initial drawdown of USD7 million. The transaction, involving related parties, has received conditional approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the company plans to seek further shareholder approval at an upcoming meeting. This move highlights the company’s efforts to stabilize its financial position amid serious financial difficulties.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Faces Challenges Amid Market Slump in Q1 2025
Negative
May 13, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds reported its financial results for Q1 2025, highlighting a challenging quarter with a net loss of $34.4 million and a significant decrease in carats recovered compared to the previous year. Despite a depressed diamond market, the company improved its mining efficiency and anticipates accessing higher grade ore earlier than planned, which may positively impact future operations. The company also completed refinancing transactions to address financial obligations and secure additional working capital, with strong support from major stakeholders.

Private Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Mountain Province Diamonds Seeks Shareholder Approval for New Working Capital Facility
Neutral
Apr 25, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds has announced the mailing of meeting materials for its upcoming annual and special shareholder meeting, where a key agenda item is the approval of a CAD33 million working capital facility from Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd., a related party. This facility is intended to support the company’s cash flow needs and operational expenses at the Gahcho Kué diamond mine through 2025, following recent refinancing transactions. The facility includes specific financial terms and conditions, and its approval is crucial for the company’s ongoing financial stability.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Reports Q1 2025 Production Decline Amid Strategic Shifts
Negative
Apr 25, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a significant decrease in production for the first quarter of 2025, with carats recovered dropping by 40% compared to the same period last year. The company attributed the lower production to treating low-grade stockpiles while focusing on stripping waste to access the high-grade NEX orebody. Despite this, the total tonnes mined increased by 28%, and the company plans to improve grades by the end of the second quarter. The sales results also showed a decline, with fewer carats sold compared to Q1 2024, although the average price per carat increased slightly.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 15, 2025