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Mountain Province Diamonds (TSE:MPVD)
TSX:MPVD
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Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:MPVD

Mountain Province Diamonds

(TSX:MPVD)

Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.00
▼(-100.00% Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily driven by financial instability and weak technical indicators. The company's negative financial performance, characterized by declining revenues, high leverage, and negative cash flow growth, is a major concern. Technical analysis further supports a bearish outlook. Although there were some operational improvements, the negative sentiment from the earnings call and poor valuation metrics weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.

Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Mountain Province Diamonds Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) is a Canadian diamond mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of diamonds. Based in Toronto, Ontario, the company operates the Gahcho Kué diamond mine, located in the Northwest Territories of Canada. This mine is one of the largest new diamond mines to be developed in the last decade and is a joint venture with De Beers Canada. MPVD focuses on the sustainable extraction of high-quality diamonds, contributing to the Canadian mining sector while adhering to environmental and social governance practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyMountain Province Diamonds generates revenue primarily through the sale of rough diamonds produced from its Gahcho Kué mine. The company sells diamonds to various buyers, including diamond manufacturers and traders, through regular sales events and tenders. The pricing of diamonds is influenced by factors such as carat weight, quality, and market demand. Additionally, MPVD benefits from its partnership with De Beers, which not only provides operational support but also enhances market access. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize resource extraction and increase production capacity, contributing further to its revenue streams.

Mountain Province Diamonds Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted improvements in safety and operational efficiency, with record ore processing and strong mining performance. However, these positive aspects were overshadowed by significant challenges, including a substantial decline in diamond grades, lower revenue and sales volume, and a significant financial loss. The weak diamond market and cash flow issues further exacerbate the challenges. The sentiment is predominantly negative due to the financial and market difficulties outweighing the operational achievements.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Safety Performance
The total recordable injury frequency rate for H1 2025 was 2.13, significantly lower than 4.38 for the same period in 2024 and 14.62 in 2022.
Record Ore Processing
1.8 million tonnes of ore were processed in H1 2025, a record for the mine.
Operational Efficiency
Operational performance improvements led to an 82.5% utilization rate for the processing facility, up from 76.7% in 2020.
Strong Tonnes Moved
Exceeded budget for total tonnes moved, gaining access to high-grade 5034 NEX ore body.
Financial Support from Major Shareholder
Received short-term liquidity support from the largest shareholder, Mr. Dermot Desmond.
Negative Updates
Diamond Grade Decline
Average grade of ore treated was 0.81 carats per tonne, down 44% from H1 2024 and 54% from H1 2023.
Revenue and Sales Volume Decrease
Q2 2025 saw a 26% decrease in carats sold and a reduction of CAD 20 million in revenue compared to Q2 2024.
Significant Financial Loss
Loss of $75 million for the first 6 months of 2025 compared to a gain of $42 million in the same period of 2024.
Decline in Cash Flow
Cash flow from operating activities was a significant outflow in Q2 2025, with a negative outflow for the first 6 months compared to a small positive inflow in 2024.
Challenges in the Diamond Market
Weak diamond market with decreased selling prices and the impact of U.S. tariffs affecting revenue.
Company Guidance
In the Q2 2025 call for Mountain Province Diamonds Inc., the company reported a significant focus on safety, production, and cost management amidst challenging market conditions. The total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 2.13 in H1 2025, down from 4.38 in H1 2024. Operationally, the processing facility achieved an 82.5% utilization rate, up from 76.7% in 2020, with 1.8 million tonnes of ore processed, setting a record for the mine. However, the grade of ore was lower, averaging 0.81 carats per tonne, a 44% decrease from H1 2024. Financially, revenue was impacted by a 26% reduction in carats sold compared to Q2 2024, and the average selling price dropped to USD 65 per carat from USD 74. This resulted in CAD 20 million less revenue than Q2 2024. Despite these challenges, the company highlighted the potential for market stabilization, supported by historically low global rough diamond production levels. The company also managed significant liquidity constraints through support from its largest shareholder and secured facilities, although it reported a loss of $75 million for H1 2025, contrasting with a gain of $42 million in H1 2024.

Mountain Province Diamonds Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mountain Province Diamonds shows financial instability with declining revenues and net losses. High leverage and negative free cash flow growth raise concerns about long-term financial sustainability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio and effective operational cash flow generation.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company has experienced fluctuating revenue with recent declines, reflected in a negative revenue growth rate over the past year. Negative net income in recent years indicates profitability challenges, although gross profit margin is positive. EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, showing difficulty in maintaining consistent operational profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. However, the equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a reasonable proportion of assets financed by equity. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting concerns about generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow growth rate, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting effective cash generation from operations relative to reported losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, pointing to challenges in translating earnings into cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue267.67M328.63M388.85M308.72M226.99M
Gross Profit93.21M173.00M170.53M113.73M-1.49M
EBITDA79.33M72.23M177.24M368.81M-159.33M
Net Income-80.83M-43.67M49.20M276.17M-263.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets838.54M932.21M898.54M877.50M595.33M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.56M29.67M17.25M25.00M35.15M
Total Debt352.37M306.88M317.40M376.04M407.69M
Total Liabilities557.58M571.21M491.38M526.76M521.63M
Stockholders Equity280.96M361.00M407.16M350.74M73.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.03M60.11M112.20M68.76M12.91M
Operating Cash Flow79.43M143.41M172.63M112.58M51.75M
Investing Cash Flow-80.33M-85.15M-64.64M-53.74M-53.69M
Financing Cash Flow-15.95M-47.07M-115.50M-69.79M2.01M

Mountain Province Diamonds Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.04
Price Trends
50DMA
0.05
Negative
100DMA
0.06
Negative
200DMA
0.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
33.39
Neutral
STOCH
58.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MPVD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, below the 50-day MA of 0.05, and below the 200-day MA of 0.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MPVD.

Mountain Province Diamonds Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$10.27B6.370.76%2.91%3.10%-36.03%
46
Neutral
$8.49M-52.25%-29.37%-71.84%
$1.22M
64
Neutral
C$97.82M1.4919.39%15.28%
50
Neutral
C$1.28M-1788.10%
24
Underperform
C$1.21M-1207.18%83.91%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.04
-0.11
-74.19%
DMIFF
Diamcor Mining
0.01
-0.02
-66.67%
TSE:DIA
Margaret Lake Diamonds
0.13
-0.01
-7.14%
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.23
-0.22
-48.89%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
-0.05
-71.43%

Mountain Province Diamonds Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Faces Challenges Amid Market Uncertainty in Q2 2025
Negative
Aug 12, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a challenging second quarter of 2025 with a net loss of $37.7 million, attributed to lower-than-expected diamond grades and market uncertainties exacerbated by recent U.S. tariffs. Despite operational improvements and a record ore throughput, the company faced a decline in carat recovery and average realized diamond prices, impacting financial performance. The company remains focused on operational discipline and cost control while navigating a fragile diamond market.

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Mountain Province Diamonds Expands Credit Facility Amid Financial Challenges
Negative
Jul 28, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. has amended its bridge credit facility agreement with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd. to increase its borrowing capacity by an additional US$10 million, bringing the total facility to US$40 million. This move, driven by the company’s financial difficulties, has received conditional approval from the TSX, with the amendment involving a related party transaction and requiring shareholder approval. The company faces potential default if it fails to secure necessary approvals or an alternative listing by January 2026.

Financial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Corrects Q2 2024 Carat Price
Negative
Jul 14, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. announced a correction to its previously reported average selling price per carat for the second quarter of 2024. The corrected average selling price is CA$102 per carat (US$74 per carat), down from the initially reported CA$166 per carat (US$124 per carat). This correction does not affect any other information from the earlier release, but it may impact stakeholders’ perception of the company’s financial performance for that period.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Reports Decline in Q2 2025 Production and Sales
Negative
Jul 10, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds reported a significant decrease in production and sales for Q2 2025, with carats recovered dropping by 46% compared to the previous year. Despite operational challenges due to low-grade stockpiles, the company plans to ramp up production from the NEX orebody, expecting improved grades in the coming months. The company remains optimistic about its mining performance, having mined 32% more total tonnes than in Q2 2024, and is preparing for a steady increase in production in Q3.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Mountain Province Diamonds Secures CAD$33 Million Facility and Elects New Board
Positive
May 20, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds announced the results of its 2025 annual and special shareholder meeting, where a CAD$33 million working capital facility with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd. was approved. The facility, which is part of a bridge credit agreement, will be used on a revolving basis to support the company’s operations. Shareholders also elected directors and re-appointed KPMG as auditor, indicating continued stability and governance for the company.

Private Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Mountain Province Diamonds Secures CAD$33 Million Working Capital Facility
Negative
May 14, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. has announced an amended and restated bridge credit facility agreement to secure a CAD$33 million working capital facility with Dunebridge Worldwide Ltd. This facility is crucial for the company’s 2025 funding strategy, addressing immediate financial needs with an initial drawdown of USD7 million. The transaction, involving related parties, has received conditional approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the company plans to seek further shareholder approval at an upcoming meeting. This move highlights the company’s efforts to stabilize its financial position amid serious financial difficulties.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Faces Challenges Amid Market Slump in Q1 2025
Negative
May 13, 2025

Mountain Province Diamonds reported its financial results for Q1 2025, highlighting a challenging quarter with a net loss of $34.4 million and a significant decrease in carats recovered compared to the previous year. Despite a depressed diamond market, the company improved its mining efficiency and anticipates accessing higher grade ore earlier than planned, which may positively impact future operations. The company also completed refinancing transactions to address financial obligations and secure additional working capital, with strong support from major stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025