Mountain Province Diamonds (TSE:MPVD)
TSX:MPVD
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Mountain Province Diamonds
(TSX:MPVD)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.04
▼(-28.33% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held down primarily by severely weakened financial performance (losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and negative equity) and the earnings call’s emphasis on near-term liquidity pressure amid weak pricing. Technicals also reflect a downtrend, while valuation is limited by a negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High ore grade and record carat recovery
Sustained materially higher ore grade and record carat recovery materially improve unit economics by raising output per ton processed. Over a multi-month horizon higher grade lowers marginal costs, boosts production flexibility and enhances cash generation potential when prices normalize.
Negative Factors
Severe realized price decline
A sustained ~53% drop in realized price critically reduces revenue per carat and compresses margins even with higher volumes. Structural weakness in rough‑diamond pricing, especially for small goods, can persist and materially impair long‑term cash generation and profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High ore grade and record carat recovery
Sustained materially higher ore grade and record carat recovery materially improve unit economics by raising output per ton processed. Over a multi-month horizon higher grade lowers marginal costs, boosts production flexibility and enhances cash generation potential when prices normalize.
Read all positive factors
Mountain Province Diamonds (MPVD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$8.50M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)124.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.83
Revenue Growth-31.73%
EPS Growth-153.86%
CountryCA
Employees8
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.46
Shares Outstanding212,612,440
10 Day Avg. Volume103,243
30 Day Avg. Volume124,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.08
P/FCF Ratio-0.09
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mountain Province Diamonds Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. focuses on the mining and marketing of rough diamonds worldwide. Its primary asset is its 49% interest in the Gahcho Kué diamond mine comprising mining leases covering an area of 5,216 hectares; and holds a 100% int...
How the Company Makes Money
MPVD makes money primarily by selling its attributable share of rough diamonds produced from the Gahcho Kué mine. Revenue is generated when diamonds are recovered from ore by the mine’s processing facilities and then sold as uncut (rough) diamonds...
Mountain Province Diamonds Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed operational picture: strong safety performance, record carat recovery and dramatically improved cost-per-carat driven by exceptionally high grades are clear operational positives. However, these were outweighed by severe market-driven price weakness (avg price per carat down ~53%), widened net losses (net loss nearly doubled), negative adjusted EBITDA, cash outflows, and growing working capital and payable demands that have required stakeholder support and short-term covenant/term extensions. Liquidity and pricing remain the primary risks to near-term financial stability.Positive Updates
Safety Performance
Approaching a full year without a lost-time injury at Gahcho Kue, indicating strong safety controls and operational discipline.
Negative Updates
Severe Price Weakness and Lower Revenue
Average realized price collapsed to US$34 per carat in Q1 2026 from US$72 in Q1 2025 (≈-52.8%), driving revenue down to CAD 40 million from CAD 44 million (CAD 4 million lower) despite higher sales volume.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Safety Performance
Approaching a full year without a lost-time injury at Gahcho Kue, indicating strong safety controls and operational discipline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call’s guidance was largely operational and liquidity-focused: management will prioritize safety (approaching a full year LTI‑free), cash conservation and working‑capital solutions (short‑term term‑loan, working capital facility and bridge‑loan repayment dates extended to June 30, 2026 and Mr. Desmond agreed to extend repayment/advance working capital), while exploring the LETL program and other options; De Beers agreed to extend in‑kind election notice dates for amounts totalling CAD 130M and drew CAD 33M from restricted cash. Operationally, Q1 delivered a record >2.0 million carats produced with grade 2.64 ct/t (vs 0.82 ct/t in Q1 2025) despite tons treated of ~759,000 (down ~18% YoY) and a pause of Tuzo mining/stripping to preserve cash; sales cadence was two sales in Q1 with management expecting three sales in Q2. Financially, key metrics to note as the company navigates the weak price environment: working capital of -CAD 63.1M, inventories CAD 206M (768,000 carats on hand; consumables up CAD 47M including 55 million litres of fuel), ore stockpile ~2.28M tons valued ~CAD 53.5M, accounts payable CAD 169M (cash calls to De Beers CAD 81M at Q1 end and ~CAD 123M by Apr 30), Q1 revenue CAD 40M (858,000 carats sold at ~US$34/ct / CAD 47/ct), production costs CAD 50.5M, adjusted EBITDA -CAD 0.6M (margin -2%), mine operating loss CAD 36M, net loss CAD 65.1M (EPS -CAD 0.31), operating cash outflow CAD 18M, and finance expense CAD 23M; management emphasized that H1 has the most acute cash pressure with conditions easing into H2.Mountain Province Diamonds Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
9
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 155.72M | 267.67M | 328.63M | 388.85M | 308.72M |
| Gross Profit | -157.60M | 93.21M | 173.00M | 170.53M | 152.90M |
| EBITDA | -62.54M | 79.33M | 72.23M | 197.99M | 376.85M |
| Net Income | -279.53M | -80.83M | -43.67M | 49.20M | 276.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 766.75M | 838.54M | 932.21M | 898.54M | 877.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.33M | 11.56M | 29.67M | 17.25M | 25.00M |
| Total Debt | 445.50M | 352.37M | 306.88M | 317.40M | 376.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 762.30M | 557.58M | 571.21M | 491.38M | 526.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.44M | 280.96M | 361.00M | 407.16M | 350.74M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -131.50M | -1.03M | 60.11M | 112.20M | 68.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -19.62M | 79.43M | 143.41M | 172.63M | 112.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -114.47M | -80.33M | -85.15M | -64.64M | -53.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 130.03M | -15.95M | -24.32M | -115.50M | -69.79M |
Mountain Province Diamonds Technical Analysis
Negative
0.06
Price Trends
0.05
Negative
0.06
Negative
0.05
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
38.84
Neutral
<0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MPVD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, above the 50-day MA of 0.05, and above the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of <0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MPVD.
Mountain Province Diamonds Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
41 Neutral | C$8.50M | -0.04 | -74.45% | ― | -31.73% | -153.86% | |
| ― | C$1.69M | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
57 Neutral | C$320.04M | -3.48 | 8.77% | ― | -22.77% | -57.17% | |
43 Neutral | C$1.44M | -14.41 | -193.26% | ― | ― | 69.81% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.04
-0.02
-33.33%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
-0.01
-50.00%
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.22
-0.04
-15.69%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
>-0.01
-25.00%
Mountain Province Diamonds Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mountain Province Diamonds Swings to Deep 2025 Loss on Impairment and Weaker Prices
Negative
Apr 1, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds reported a steep deterioration in 2025 financial performance despite operational progress in some areas, as weaker diamond prices and an impairment dragged results deep into the red. Full-year sales fell to $155.7 millio...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mountain Province Diamonds Delays Q4 and 2025 Results, Resets Earnings Call
Negative
Mar 24, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds has postponed the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results due to a delay in completing its year-end audit. The company now plans to publish the figures after markets close on March 31, 2026, al...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mountain Province Diamonds Extends Key Loans as De Beers JV Cash Strain Persists
Negative
Mar 17, 2026
Mountain Province Diamonds has secured a short-term extension of its US$40 million term loan and US$33 million working capital facility with related-party lender Dunebridge Worldwide, pushing both maturities to April 30, 2026. The move aims to eas...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.