Lucara Diamond (LUC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$84.33M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 195.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.06
• Revenue Growth: 28.12%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 324
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 455,828,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 234,754
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 195,755
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.20 ▲(12.22% Upside)

Lucara Diamond's stock score is driven by strong financial performance and valuation, offset by technical analysis indicating potential bearish sentiment. Corporate events highlight operational achievements but also financial challenges.

Positive Factors

Innovative Technology

Lucara's use of XRT technology enhances diamond recovery efficiency, providing a competitive edge in the market by improving yield and reducing damage.

Strong Market Position

The Karowe Mine's reputation for large, high-value diamonds strengthens Lucara's market position, ensuring demand and premium pricing for its products.

Healthy Margins

Strong profit margins indicate efficient operations and pricing power, supporting long-term profitability and financial health.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow growth poses a risk to sustainability, requiring improved cash management to support operations and growth initiatives.

Revenue Fluctuations

Past revenue fluctuations highlight the need for consistent growth strategies to stabilize earnings and enhance investor confidence.

Debt Level Concerns

While current leverage is conservative, past debt fluctuations suggest potential risks, necessitating vigilant financial management to maintain stability.

Lucara Diamond Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, focuses on the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds 100% interests in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital platform for the sale of rough diamonds. The company was formerly known as Bannockburn Resources Limited and changed its name to Lucara Diamond Corp. in August 2007. Lucara Diamond Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lucara Diamond generates revenue primarily through the sale of rough diamonds mined from its Karowe Diamond Mine. The company employs a unique revenue model that includes direct sales through tenders and auctions, allowing it to capture maximum value for its high-quality diamonds. Key revenue streams include the sale of large, high-value diamonds, which attract premium prices in the market. Additionally, Lucara has formed strategic partnerships, including a collaboration with Hugh Jones & Co. for marketing and sales, which enhances its market reach and sales capabilities. The company also benefits from strong demand in the luxury goods sector and maintains a focus on operational efficiency to maximize profitability.

Lucara Diamond Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lucara Diamond shows strong profitability and operational efficiency with robust margins and a solid balance sheet. However, cash flow challenges and past revenue fluctuations pose risks. Continued focus on cash flow management and consistent revenue growth is crucial.

Income Statement

Lucara Diamond's income statement shows a strong recovery with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.22% and improving margins. The gross profit margin is healthy at 41.52%, and the net profit margin has improved to 24.81%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue has fluctuated in the past, and maintaining consistent growth remains a challenge.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity is strong at 17.77%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a well-capitalized structure. However, past fluctuations in debt levels highlight potential risks in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow growth and a negative free cash flow to net income ratio. While operating cash flow is positive, the company needs to address free cash flow deficits to ensure long-term sustainability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, indicating room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	197.04M	203.88M	172.40M	212.93M	230.08M	125.26M
Gross Profit	81.82M	84.45M	62.35M	84.60M	75.14M	-7.73M
EBITDA	75.49M	66.61M	53.50M	87.18M	100.29M	18.97M
Net Income	48.89M	39.90M	-20.19M	40.43M	23.83M	-26.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	710.74M	660.83M	575.80M	495.84M	411.95M	333.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.73M	22.79M	13.34M	26.42M	27.01M	4.92M
Total Debt	45.65M	195.83M	137.99M	78.60M	48.90M	32.27M
Total Liabilities	413.50M	389.10M	333.67M	225.78M	162.98M	125.66M
Stockholders Equity	297.24M	271.73M	242.13M	270.06M	248.97M	208.19M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-63.28M	-38.71M	-52.33M	77.15M	68.10M	-35.48M
Operating Cash Flow	70.56M	56.30M	63.36M	96.23M	83.39M	-1.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-101.28M	-94.35M	-115.79M	-125.42M	-97.54M	-33.95M
Financing Cash Flow	31.44M	47.76M	39.66M	29.14M	36.80M	29.37M

Lucara Diamond Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.18, below the 50-day MA of 0.18, and below the 200-day MA of 0.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LUC.

Lucara Diamond Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUC	69 Neutral	C$84.33M	1.03	21.15%	―	28.12%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TAI	50 Neutral	C$1.92M	-3.26	-193.26%	―	―	-187.50%
MPVD	45 Neutral	C$11.68M	-0.06	-74.45%	―	-45.17%	-100.74%
DMI	29 Underperform	C$1.69M	―	―	―	―	―
DIA	24 Underperform	C$1.17M	-2.58	―	―	―	78.10%

Lucara Diamond Corporate Events

Lucara Diamond Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results Amidst Operational Milestones

Lucara Diamond Corp. reported its Q3 2025 results, highlighting significant achievements such as the sale of 101,422 carats generating $51.2 million in revenue and the recovery of a 1,015 carat non-gem diamond. The company also made progress on its Karowe Underground Project, reaching the bottom of the production shaft, a critical milestone. Financially, Lucara improved its operating margins to 57% due to increased revenue and reduced operating expenses. However, the company faces a working capital deficit of $157.8 million, partly due to the classification of its Project Facility as a current liability. Despite these challenges, Lucara remains focused on safe execution and cost discipline as it advances towards first underground ore.