Lucara Diamond J (TSE:LUC)
TSX:LUC
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Lucara Diamond
(TSX:LUC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.26
▲(0.38% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative free cash flow for three consecutive years) and increased leverage, despite a recovery in profitability. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is a key positive due to the very low P/E, but funding/cash-conversion risk keeps the overall score in the low-to-mid 60s.
Positive Factors
Operating cash flow quality
Sizable positive operating cash flow across 2021–2025 indicates the core mining and sales operations generate real cash from operations. This durable cash-generating ability supports ongoing mine operations, working capital needs, and provides a foundation for funding capital projects or smoothing cycles without relying solely on equity.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow trend
Three consecutive years of negative free cash flow, including a marked shortfall in 2025, signal the company is not converting earnings into surplus cash after investment. Persisting negative FCF raises durable funding risk for sustaining capital programs, dividends, or debt repayment without external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash flow quality
Sizable positive operating cash flow across 2021–2025 indicates the core mining and sales operations generate real cash from operations. This durable cash-generating ability supports ongoing mine operations, working capital needs, and provides a foundation for funding capital projects or smoothing cycles without relying solely on equity.
Read all positive factors
Lucara Diamond (LUC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$387.02M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)195.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.5
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth28.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees324
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding1,488,549,200
10 Day Avg. Volume234,754
30 Day Avg. Volume195,755
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.21
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-1.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$0.30Price Target Upside15.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$155.00M
Lucara Diamond Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, focuses on the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds 100% interests in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital platform ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lucara makes money primarily by selling rough diamonds recovered from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when ore is mined and processed to recover diamonds, which are then sorted by size and quality and sold to buyers through sales chann...
Lucara Diamond Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 10, 2024
(Q1-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance and progress in underground development, but was marred by lower recovery of specials and increased net loss due to transaction costs. There is anticipation of improved cash flows in the latter half of the year.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Margin and Cost Control
Operating margin of 51% with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, which is better than guidance.
Negative Updates
Lower Recovery of Specials
Recovery of 5.1% specials below the expected 6.8%, affecting revenue from larger stones.
Read all updates
Q1-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Margin and Cost Control
Operating margin of 51% with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, which is better than guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Lucara Diamond earnings call for Q1 2024, key metrics and guidance were discussed. The company reported $41 million in diamond sales, with 93,500 carats sold across the HB agreement, Clara, and regular tenders. The operating margin was noted at 51%, with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, reflecting strong cost control. A total of 160 specials over 10.8 carats were recovered, although this 5.1% recovery rate was below the expected 6.8% for mining in the South Lobe. The underground project is progressing well, with $140 million drawn from the project loan and $25 million from the working capital facility. Net loss increased by $9 million, primarily due to transaction costs from a rebased loan agreement. Despite lower volumes of larger stones affecting cash flow, an uplift is anticipated in H2 2024. Revenue guidance remains at $220 million to $250 million, with ongoing efforts to meet operational targets and sustain community-focused initiatives in Botswana.Lucara Diamond Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 162.46M | 203.88M | 172.40M | 212.93M | 230.08M |
| Gross Profit | 51.28M | 84.45M | 62.35M | 84.60M | 75.14M |
| EBITDA | 48.94M | 66.61M | 53.50M | 87.18M | 100.29M |
| Net Income | 26.57M | 39.90M | -20.19M | 40.43M | 23.83M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 771.30M | 660.83M | 575.80M | 495.84M | 411.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.86M | 22.79M | 13.34M | 26.42M | 27.01M |
| Total Debt | 223.46M | 195.83M | 137.99M | 78.60M | 48.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 455.45M | 389.10M | 333.67M | 225.78M | 162.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | 315.85M | 271.73M | 242.13M | 270.06M | 248.97M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.29M | -38.71M | -52.33M | 77.15M | 68.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.99M | 56.30M | 63.36M | 96.23M | 83.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -103.63M | -94.35M | -115.79M | -125.42M | -97.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 57.53M | 47.76M | 39.66M | 29.14M | 36.80M |
Lucara Diamond Technical Analysis
Positive
0.26
Price Trends
0.26
Negative
0.23
Positive
0.22
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
50.77
Neutral
51.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.26, below the 50-day MA of 0.26, and above the 200-day MA of 0.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUC.
Lucara Diamond Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | C$387.02M | 2.49 | 8.77% | ― | 28.12% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
47 Neutral | C$11.26M | -0.04 | -74.45% | ― | -45.17% | -100.74% | |
| ― | C$1.69M | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | C$1.92M | -16.06 | -193.26% | ― | ― | -187.50% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.26
-0.11
-29.73%
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.05
>-0.01
-3.64%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
>-0.01
-33.33%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
>-0.01
-33.33%
Lucara Diamond Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara Secures US$350 Million Bond to Refinance Debt and Advance Karowe Underground Project
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has closed a US$350 million private placement of senior secured bonds with a five-year tenor and a 12.5% fixed coupon, using the proceeds to fully repay its existing US$220 million project finance facilities. Remaining funds w...
Business Operations and Strategy
Lucara Uncovers Rare 36.92-Carat Blue Diamond at Karowe Mine
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has recovered a 36.92-carat Type IIB blue diamond of high quality from stockpiled ore at its Karowe mine in Botswana, adding to five stones over 100 carats found so far this year. Management says the find underscores the conti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara revenue slips as mega-stone sales ease, but underground project hits key milestones
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
Lucara Diamond reported 2025 revenue of $159.7 million from sales of 353,302 carats, down from 2024 as fewer mega-stones were sold, though the year still featured notable recoveries including three diamonds over 1,000 carats and a rare 37.42 carat...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara Raises C$165 Million in Upsized Private Placement to Advance Karowe Underground Project
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has closed an upsized, non-brokered private placement raising C$165 million through the issuance of 1,031,250,000 common shares at C$0.16 per share, following strong investor demand that included institutional investors and th...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lucara Seeks TSX Hardship Exemption for $165 Million Discounted Equity Raise
Negative
Jan 20, 2026
Lucara has applied to the Toronto Stock Exchange for a financial hardship exemption to proceed with a previously announced non-brokered private placement of 1,031,250,000 common shares at $0.16 per share, raising gross proceeds of $165 million at ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara Upsizes Private Placement to $165 Million to Advance Karowe Underground Project
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has upsized its previously announced non-brokered equity financing to raise gross proceeds of $165 million through the issuance of 1,031,250,000 common shares at $0.16 each, following strong investor demand. The additional cap...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara Secures Lundin-Backed C$70 Million Private Placement to Advance Karowe Underground Project
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has launched a non-brokered private placement of at least 437.5 million common shares at C$0.16 per share, targeting minimum gross proceeds of C$70 million to help fund the Karowe Underground Project in Botswana and bolster wo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lucara Updates Karowe Underground Study, Confirms 10-Year Mine Life and $1.3 Billion Net Income Outlook
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has released an updated feasibility study for the underground expansion at its Karowe Diamond Mine in Botswana, confirming a 10-year underground mine life and total life-of-mine recoveries of 4.5 million carats, predominantly ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.