Lucara Diamond J (TSE:LUC)
TSX:LUC
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Lucara Diamond
(TSX:LUC)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.24
▼(-13.21% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality (higher leverage and persistently negative free cash flow) and a soft technical setup (below key short/intermediate moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by an inexpensive valuation based on the low P/E.
Positive Factors
High-value diamond asset
Karowe's ability to recover exceptionally large, high-value stones is a durable competitive advantage: such stones drive outsized revenue when realized, improve average price per carat, and bolster long-term sales mix and marketing leverage versus peers with only small stones.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Material increases in total debt have reduced financial flexibility and raised refinancing and interest-rate risk. A mid-to-high leverage profile limits maneuverability to fund growth or absorb shocks, increasing long-term vulnerability to production shortfalls or weaker diamond prices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-value diamond asset
Karowe's ability to recover exceptionally large, high-value stones is a durable competitive advantage: such stones drive outsized revenue when realized, improve average price per carat, and bolster long-term sales mix and marketing leverage versus peers with only small stones.
Read all positive factors
Lucara Diamond (LUC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$320.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)195.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-22.77%
EPS Growth-57.17%
CountryCA
Employees324
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding1,488,549,200
10 Day Avg. Volume234,754
30 Day Avg. Volume195,755
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.21
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio-1.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$0.30Price Target Upside7.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$155.32M
Lucara Diamond Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, focuses on the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds 100% interests in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital platform ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lucara makes money primarily by producing rough diamonds from its mining operations and selling those diamonds into the market. The core revenue stream is diamond sales generated from (1) mining kimberlite ore at its operating mine(s), (2) process...
Lucara Diamond Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 10, 2024
(Q1-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance and progress in underground development, but was marred by lower recovery of specials and increased net loss due to transaction costs. There is anticipation of improved cash flows in the latter half of the year.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Margin and Cost Control
Operating margin of 51% with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, which is better than guidance.
Negative Updates
Lower Recovery of Specials
Recovery of 5.1% specials below the expected 6.8%, affecting revenue from larger stones.
Read all updates
Q1-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Margin and Cost Control
Operating margin of 51% with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, which is better than guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Lucara Diamond earnings call for Q1 2024, key metrics and guidance were discussed. The company reported $41 million in diamond sales, with 93,500 carats sold across the HB agreement, Clara, and regular tenders. The operating margin was noted at 51%, with operating costs at $26 per ton processed, reflecting strong cost control. A total of 160 specials over 10.8 carats were recovered, although this 5.1% recovery rate was below the expected 6.8% for mining in the South Lobe. The underground project is progressing well, with $140 million drawn from the project loan and $25 million from the working capital facility. Net loss increased by $9 million, primarily due to transaction costs from a rebased loan agreement. Despite lower volumes of larger stones affecting cash flow, an uplift is anticipated in H2 2024. Revenue guidance remains at $220 million to $250 million, with ongoing efforts to meet operational targets and sustain community-focused initiatives in Botswana.Lucara Diamond Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 150.66M | 162.46M | 203.88M | 172.40M | 212.93M | 230.08M |
| Gross Profit | 41.58M | 51.28M | 84.45M | 62.35M | 84.60M | 75.14M |
| EBITDA | 32.50M | 48.94M | 66.61M | 53.50M | 87.18M | 100.29M |
| Net Income | 12.02M | 26.57M | 39.90M | -20.19M | 40.43M | 23.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 966.44M | 771.30M | 660.83M | 575.80M | 495.84M | 411.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 244.47M | 31.86M | 22.79M | 13.34M | 26.42M | 27.01M |
| Total Debt | 347.41M | 223.46M | 195.83M | 137.99M | 78.60M | 48.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 561.74M | 455.45M | 389.10M | 333.67M | 225.78M | 162.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | 404.70M | 315.85M | 271.73M | 242.13M | 270.06M | 248.97M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -72.22M | -48.29M | -38.71M | -52.33M | 77.15M | 68.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 47.17M | 54.99M | 56.30M | 63.36M | 96.23M | 83.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.62M | -103.63M | -94.35M | -115.79M | -125.42M | -97.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 293.15M | 57.53M | 47.76M | 39.66M | 29.14M | 36.80M |
Lucara Diamond Technical Analysis
Negative
0.28
Price Trends
0.25
Negative
0.25
Negative
0.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
40.65
Neutral
24.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.24, above the 50-day MA of 0.25, and above the 200-day MA of 0.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LUC.
Lucara Diamond Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | C$320.04M | -3.48 | 8.77% | ― | -22.77% | -57.17% | |
41 Neutral | C$8.50M | -0.04 | -74.45% | ― | -31.73% | -153.86% | |
| ― | C$1.69M | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | C$1.44M | -14.41 | -193.26% | ― | ― | 69.81% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LUC
Lucara Diamond
0.22
-0.04
-15.69%
TSE:MPVD
Mountain Province Diamonds
0.04
-0.02
-33.33%
TSE:DMI
Diamcor Mining
0.01
-0.01
-50.00%
TSE:TAI
Talmora Diamond
0.02
>-0.01
-25.00%
Lucara Diamond Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara Secures US$350 Million Bond to Refinance Debt and Advance Karowe Underground Project
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has closed a US$350 million private placement of senior secured bonds with a five-year tenor and a 12.5% fixed coupon, using the proceeds to fully repay its existing US$220 million project finance facilities. Remaining funds w...
Business Operations and Strategy
Lucara Uncovers Rare 36.92-Carat Blue Diamond at Karowe Mine
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp. has recovered a 36.92-carat Type IIB blue diamond of high quality from stockpiled ore at its Karowe mine in Botswana, adding to five stones over 100 carats found so far this year. Management says the find underscores the conti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Lucara revenue slips as mega-stone sales ease, but underground project hits key milestones
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
Lucara Diamond reported 2025 revenue of $159.7 million from sales of 353,302 carats, down from 2024 as fewer mega-stones were sold, though the year still featured notable recoveries including three diamonds over 1,000 carats and a rare 37.42 carat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.