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Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN)
TSX:LUN

Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

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TSLundin Mining
(TSX:LUN)
66Neutral
Lundin Mining's overall score is driven by strong production and strategic moves highlighted in the earnings call, and solid financial performance despite net losses. Technical indicators suggest potential upward momentum, although valuation metrics remain a concern due to negative earnings. Ongoing strategic initiatives and shareholder rewards contribute positively to the stock's outlook.

Lundin Mining (LUN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLundin Mining Corporation (LUN) is a diversified Canadian base metals mining company with operations in Chile, the United States, Portugal, and Sweden. The company primarily focuses on the extraction and production of copper, zinc, nickel, and other metals. Lundin Mining is committed to sustainable and responsible mining practices, leveraging its expertise in mineral exploration, development, and extraction to deliver value to its stakeholders.
How the Company Makes MoneyLundin Mining makes money through the extraction and sale of base metals, particularly copper, zinc, and nickel. The company's revenue model centers on the production from its mining operations, which are strategically located to optimize output and efficiency. Lundin Mining sells its extracted metals to various industrial customers and commodity markets, capitalizing on prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of copper concentrate, zinc concentrate, and nickel concentrate. Additionally, the company may enter into strategic partnerships or off-take agreements to secure stable revenue streams and manage market volatility. Factors such as commodity prices, production volume, and operational efficiency significantly influence Lundin Mining's earnings.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lundin Mining's financial performance is characterized by strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but profitability challenges persist with a negative net income. The balance sheet shows stable leverage, and cash flows are robust, pointing to solid liquidity. However, improving profitability and equity returns is crucial.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Lundin Mining showed a mixed performance in its income statement. The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 27.6%, indicating decent profitability from operations. However, the net profit margin was negative due to a net loss, highlighting challenges in controlling overall costs or exceptional charges. Revenue growth was strong, up 24.7% year-on-year, marking a recovery from previous contraction. EBIT was absent for 2024, but EBITDA margin was noteworthy at 32.6%, reflecting strong core operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet presents a stable financial position, with an equity ratio of 42.5%, suggesting a balanced reliance on equity financing. The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 0.45, indicating slightly higher leverage compared to previous years, but remains manageable. ROE was negative due to net losses, which is a concern for generating shareholder value. Overall, the balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with potential to improve equity returns.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals healthy operational cash generation, with operating cash flow to net income ratio being skewed due to net losses. Free cash flow grew significantly, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and cash preservation. The free cash flow to net income ratio was also distorted by the negative net income. Cash flow from operations was robust, supporting the company's liquidity and ability to fund operations internally.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.42B2.74B3.04B3.33B2.04B
Gross Profit
942.86M3.74M762.57M1.37B498.12M
EBIT
0.00506.79M448.16M1.26B364.23M
EBITDA
1.12B1.05B1.00B1.78B801.27M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-203.53M241.56M426.85M780.35M168.80M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
407.58M268.79M191.39M594.07M141.45M
Total Assets
10.41B10.86B8.17B7.64B7.06B
Total Debt
2.01B1.76B197.33M31.00M203.05M
Net Debt
1.65B1.49B5.94M-563.07M61.60M
Total Liabilities
4.89B4.44B2.75B2.64B2.56B
Stockholders Equity
4.42B4.96B4.86B4.45B3.98B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
711.55M3.50M33.99M952.86M134.65M
Operating Cash Flow
1.52B1.02B876.89M1.48B565.89M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.01B-1.67B-1.01B-520.01M-420.98M
Financing Cash Flow
-344.23M728.59M-251.63M-496.64M-236.93M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price11.36
Price Trends
50DMA
12.16
Negative
100DMA
12.96
Negative
200DMA
13.54
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Positive
RSI
39.49
Neutral
STOCH
15.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.98, below the 50-day MA of 12.16, and below the 200-day MA of 13.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSHBM
72
Outperform
C$3.95B35.863.40%0.21%42.67%718.35%
TSLUN
66
Neutral
$9.86B25.63-4.60%3.39%-2.71%-188.94%
TSFM
61
Neutral
$14.97B0.02%-24.38%99.06%
59
Neutral
$29.30B92.441.56%0.92%-10.03%-86.30%
TSCS
56
Neutral
$6.09B51.52-3.82%12.21%
47
Neutral
$2.64B-4.00-31.55%3.33%2.93%-29.90%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
11.36
0.82
7.80%
TSE:HBM
HudBay Minerals
10.00
1.87
22.94%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
7.80
0.77
10.95%
TSE:TECK.B
Teck Resources
55.90
4.12
7.95%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
16.89
2.98
21.42%

Lundin Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.72% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Lundin Mining had a strong year with record production in copper and zinc, strategic acquisitions, and financial performance. Despite some operational challenges and non-cash impairments, the company's growth trajectory and strategic initiatives position it well for future success.
Highlights
Record Copper and Zinc Production
Lundin Mining achieved record copper production of 369,072 tons and zinc production of 191,704 tons in 2024.
Strategic Acquisition and Joint Venture
Increased ownership in the Caserones mine from 51% to 70%, contributing 24,000 tons of annualized copper production. Formed a joint venture with BHP to integrate Filo del Sol and Josemaria projects, targeting to become a top-tier copper producer.
Strong Financial Performance
Generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion and free cash flow from operations of $873 million in 2024.
Portfolio Optimization and Asset Sales
Sold Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan to Boliden for up to $1.52 billion, streamlining operations and strengthening the balance sheet.
Dividend and Buyback Program
Returned $227 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, including purchasing 3.3 million shares in December.
Lowlights
Operational Challenges at Caserones
Labor action in Q3 impacted overall production, and hydrogeological conditions required a shift in mining plans.
Delayed Copper Shipments
Two scheduled shipments from Caserones were delayed due to weather-related issues, impacting Q4 sales volumes.
Non-cash Tax Impairments
Earnings were impacted by non-cash tax impairments totaling $545 million, affecting multiple assets.
Company Guidance
The conference call for Lundin Mining's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results highlighted a series of significant metrics and developments. The company achieved record copper and zinc production, with annual copper output reaching 369,072 tons and zinc production at 191,704 tons. Financially, Lundin Mining reported a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion, with $1.46 billion from continuing operations, and generated free cash flow from operations of $873 million. The company increased its ownership in the Caserones mine to 70%, contributing nearly 24,000 tons of annualized attributable copper production at a cost of approximately $14,500 per ton. Additionally, Lundin Mining announced a $3 billion acquisition of Filo Corp, forming a joint venture with BHP called Vicuna Corp, and sold its Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan assets for up to $1.52 billion. This strategic realignment is aimed at focusing on the Vicuna district's growth potential, with Vicuna targeting new mineral resource estimates in the first half of 2025. The company also returned $227 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, including purchasing 3.3 million shares under its NCIB program.

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Status
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

Lundin Mining announced a decrease in its issued and outstanding shares by 1,910,500, bringing the total to 865,866,926 shares with voting rights as of February 28, 2025. This change results from share buybacks under the normal course issuer bid, partially offset by employee stock options and share units. This update reflects the company’s ongoing strategic financial management and could impact its market positioning and shareholder value.

Stock BuybackDividends
Lundin Mining Declares Dividend and Updates on Share Buybacks
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

Lundin Mining has declared a regular quarterly dividend of CAD $0.09 per share, payable on April 9, 2025, to shareholders of record on March 21, 2025. This decision is part of the company’s ongoing shareholder reward strategy, alongside a share buyback program that saw the recent repurchase of 3,245,000 common shares, valued at approximately CAD $40 million. The company plans to continue monitoring market conditions for further potential purchases, emphasizing strategic financial management and shareholder value enhancement.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lundin Mining Reports Strong 2024 Performance and Strategic Moves
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

Lundin Mining reported strong operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, driven by record copper and zinc production. The formation of Vicuña Corp. is a strategic move to establish Lundin as a leading copper producer, with new mineral resource estimates expected in 2025. Despite a net loss due to non-cash impairments, the company generated substantial free cash flow and aims to reduce debt by selling European assets, Zinkgruvan and Neves-Corvo, by mid-2025.

Executive/Board Changes
Lundin Mining Announces Board Changes with New Appointment
Positive
Feb 20, 2025

Lundin Mining announced the appointment of Ms. Victoria McMillan to its Board of Directors, following Ms. Juliana Lam’s decision to retire and not seek re-election. Ms. McMillan, a Chartered Professional Accountant with over 20 years of experience in finance, particularly in the mining and royalty sectors, is expected to bring valuable financial expertise and strategic leadership to the company. Her role is anticipated to aid in guiding Lundin Mining’s growth and enhancing financial stewardship, creating long-term value for stakeholders.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lundin Mining Boosts Copper Reserves and Strengthens Resource Portfolio
Positive
Feb 12, 2025

Lundin Mining announced its 2024 Mineral Resource and Reserve estimates, revealing an increase in proven and probable copper reserves by 242 kt, now totaling 10,872 kt. The company is strategically enhancing its operations through acquisitions and exploration, notably with the January acquisition of Filo Corp. alongside BHP, adding substantial resources to its Vicuña portfolio. The proposed divestiture of European assets to Boliden is set to adjust the company’s resource statements upon completion. Efforts at Candelaria and Caserones have offset depletion, while anticipated updates at Vicuña will further bolster Lundin’s resource estimates, positioning the company for significant growth and operational efficiency.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital Following Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Jan 31, 2025

Lundin Mining has updated its share capital and voting rights, increasing the number of issued and outstanding shares to 867,777,426 as of January 31, 2025. This increase is due to the acquisition of Filo Corp. and the exercise of employee stock options, reflecting strategic growth and operational expansion, which could impact stakeholders by boosting company value and market presence.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lundin Mining Faces Fine and Mine Closure Over 2022 Sinkhole Incident
Negative
Jan 31, 2025

Lundin Mining received a $3.3 million fine and a continued closure order for its Alcaparrosa mine from Chile’s Superintendencia del Medio Ambiente due to a 2022 sinkhole incident. Despite this setback, the company maintains robust operations at its Candelaria mine and plans to review and determine next steps regarding the alleged environmental permit breach.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lundin Mining Reports Factors Impacting 2024 Financial Results
Negative
Jan 27, 2025

Lundin Mining has announced several factors affecting its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results. These include a negative impact on revenue due to provisional pricing adjustments, particularly in copper sales, and shipment delays of copper concentrate from Caserones. Moreover, the company expects foreign exchange gains due to the weakening of the Brazilian real and Chilean peso against the US dollar. However, this is offset by unrealized losses from foreign exchange and commodity derivative contracts and a write-down of inventory items. Operational challenges have also led to increased overhead costs at its Eagle mine, although normal throughput rates are expected to resume in early 2025.

Lundin Mining Reports Record 2024 Production and Sets 2025 Outlook
Jan 16, 2025

Lundin Mining announced record production results for 2024, achieving unprecedented levels in copper and zinc outputs. The company also provided guidance for 2025, reflecting changes in production due to strategic divestitures and expansions. Copper production is expected to be between 303,000 to 330,000 tonnes, with a C1 cash cost ranging from $2.05/lb to $2.30/lb. The company plans significant capital expenditures, including $530 million in sustaining capital and $205 million in expansionary capital. These developments underscore Lundin Mining’s strategic focus on maintaining robust operational performance while navigating industry changes.

Lundin Mining and BHP Form Strategic Alliance with Vicuña Corp
Jan 15, 2025

Lundin Mining has announced the completion of a joint acquisition of Filo Corp with BHP and the formation of Vicuña Corp, a 50/50 joint venture. This strategic alliance aims to develop an emerging copper district, leveraging the proximity of the Filo del Sol and Josemaria projects for potential global ranking. The venture is expected to transform Lundin Mining into a top-tier copper producer, enhancing economies of scale and providing growth opportunities in response to increasing global copper demand.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Operations
Jan 2, 2025

Lundin Mining announced a reduction in its share capital, decreasing the number of issued and outstanding shares to 774,102,971 due to share buybacks and employee stock options. As a diversified base metals mining company, Lundin Mining operates in several countries, producing essential metals like copper, zinc, gold, and nickel.

Lundin Mining’s New Share Offer for Filo Corp
Dec 10, 2024

Lundin Mining has announced the publication of a Swedish short-form document for the offer of new shares as part of its acquisition of Filo Corp. The arrangement, which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2025, aims to acquire all outstanding shares of Filo Corp not already owned by Lundin Mining and its partner, BHP Investments Canada Inc.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.