First Quantum Minerals (FM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 223.3
• Beta (1Y): 2.42
• Revenue Growth: 8.17%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 834,206,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,252,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,564,938
• PEG Ratio: 0.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 48.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.46
• 1Y Price Target: $42.97
• Price Target Upside: 47.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.42B

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: C$29.00 ▼(-0.65% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong operating cash flow and improving leverage are offset by weak/unstable net profitability and sharply lower 2025 free cash flow. Technicals are bearish with price below key moving averages and negative MACD, and valuation is unattractive due to an extremely high P/E with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Consistent operating cash flow

Sustained positive operating cash flow provides durable liquidity to fund mining operations, sustain capital expenditure cycles, and service debt. This recurring cash generation helps the company weather commodity cycles and supports medium-term project funding and working capital needs.

Improved leverage and sizable equity base

A large equity cushion and reduced leverage vs prior peaks increase financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. This structural balance-sheet strength gives the company room to manage capital allocation, pursue sustaining or development capex, and absorb operational setbacks over the next several quarters.

Revenue rebound in 2025

A return to positive revenue growth signals recovering demand or improved output at core copper operations. If sustained, this trend supports higher throughput and cash generation, helps stabilize margins, and underpins longer-term operational planning and investment decisions.

Negative Factors

Volatile and weak profitability

Large swings in net income indicate weak earnings quality and exposure to non-operational or below-the-line pressures (e.g., impairments, financing, depreciation). This undermines predictability of profits and cash available for debt reduction or reinvestment, challenging medium-term planning.

Sharp decline in free cash flow

A pronounced fall in free cash flow reduces flexibility to fund growth, pay down debt, or return capital. Even with positive operating cash flow, volatile FCF driven by higher capex or weaker realizations raises the probability of additional external financing or deferred projects over the coming months.

High absolute debt for current earnings

Elevated absolute debt relative to weakened net income increases exposure to commodity-driven earnings variability. With margins and profits unstable, interest and principal obligations constrain capital allocation and heighten refinancing and coverage risks across the medium term.

First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, nickel, pyrite, gold, silver, and zinc ores, as well as produces acid. The company has operating mines located in Zambia, Panama, Finland, Turkey, Spain, Australia, and Mauritania, as well as a development project in Zambia. It is exploring the Taca Taca copper-gold-molybdenum project in Argentina, as well as the Haquira copper deposit in Peru. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

First Quantum Minerals makes money primarily by producing and selling metals—especially copper—with additional revenue from nickel. Its revenue model is commodity-production based: the company operates mines and processing facilities, extracts ore, processes it into saleable products (such as copper concentrate and/or finished copper metal depending on the site configuration), and sells these products to customers at prices that are largely linked to prevailing global market benchmarks for the relevant metals. Key revenue streams therefore come from (1) copper sales (the company’s dominant product line) and (2) nickel sales. Earnings are influenced by a combination of sales volumes (production levels), realized commodity prices (including any applicable treatment/refining charges, product quality terms, and contract terms), and operating costs (mining, processing, logistics, power, labor, and sustaining capital). The company’s profitability and cash generation typically vary with commodity price cycles, mine performance and grades, cost inflation/deflation, and operational/technical factors that affect throughput and recoveries. Specific details on significant partnerships contributing to earnings: null.

First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and leverage has improved, but profitability has been highly inconsistent (loss in 2023, near break-even/negative in 2024–2025) and free cash flow fell sharply in 2025, weakening earnings quality and durability.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile but is rebounding (2025 up ~4.7% after declines in 2023–2024). Profitability is the key weak spot: net income swung from strong profits in 2021–2022 to a large loss in 2023, then essentially break-even in 2024 and slightly negative in 2025—despite solid operating earnings (EBIT and EBITDA remained positive). This points to meaningful below-the-line pressure (e.g., costs, depreciation, financing, or other items), reducing earnings quality and consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a sizable equity base (equity ~$11.2B vs. debt ~$5.9B in 2025), and leverage has improved versus prior years as total debt has come down from the 2023 peak. Still, absolute debt remains high for the current earnings profile, and shareholder returns have been weak recently given near-zero/negative net income in 2024–2025. Overall, leverage looks manageable but leaves less room for operational volatility typical in copper markets.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistently positive (roughly $1.4B–$2.9B across 2020–2025), supporting liquidity through the earnings downturn. However, free cash flow is volatile and has stepped down materially in 2025 (about $463M, down ~66.6% year over year), indicating heavier capital spending and/or weaker underlying cash generation. Cash generation is a clear strength, but the declining free cash flow trend is a notable risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.24B	4.80B	6.46B	7.63B	7.21B
Gross Profit	1.46B	1.35B	1.29B	2.20B	2.56B
EBITDA	1.78B	1.62B	2.25B	3.28B	3.55B
Net Income	-28.00M	2.00M	-954.00M	1.03B	832.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	25.24B	24.11B	23.76B	25.08B	25.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	716.00M	843.00M	1.16B	1.69B	1.86B
Total Debt	5.91B	6.37B	7.58B	7.38B	7.91B
Total Liabilities	13.70B	12.21B	12.98B	12.84B	13.78B
Stockholders Equity	11.16B	11.47B	10.25B	10.90B	10.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	462.97M	365.00M	127.00M	1.17B	1.89B
Operating Cash Flow	1.62B	1.65B	1.43B	2.33B	2.88B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.16B	-1.29B	-1.38B	-1.17B	-1.10B
Financing Cash Flow	-621.70M	-501.00M	-776.00M	-1.33B	-841.00M

First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.19
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.23, below the 50-day MA of 37.62, and below the 200-day MA of 30.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.19 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FM.

First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	67 Neutral	$3.38B	10.93	31.58%	―	29.97%	658.38%
LUN	64 Neutral	C$25.15B	14.08	21.95%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
HBM	63 Neutral	$9.82B	13.57	19.30%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	60 Neutral	$2.87B	-83.57	-5.02%	―	1.17%	-169.37%
CS	59 Neutral	C$7.22B	23.80	9.77%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
FM	51 Neutral	$24.35B	223.31	-0.24%	―	8.17%	―

First Quantum Minerals Corporate Events

First Quantum to Sell Türkiye’s Çayeli Mine to Cengiz for $340 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its Çayeli copper and zinc mine in Türkiye to local conglomerate Cengiz Holding for $340 million in cash, reinforcing its push to streamline its portfolio around core strategic priorities. The deal includes a $50 million advance payment, is subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, and is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026.

Çayeli, an underground operation on Türkiye’s Black Sea coast that has been producing copper and zinc concentrates since 1994, recently secured a life extension to 2036 through the delineation of the South Orebody deposit. Divesting a long-life, non-core asset suggests First Quantum is seeking to reallocate capital amid operational challenges at other sites, while Cengiz strengthens its position in the Turkish mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Taps Bond Market to Refinance Costly Secured Debt

First Quantum Minerals has completed a $1.5 billion offering of senior unsecured notes carrying a 6.375% coupon and maturing in 2036, with guarantees provided by certain subsidiaries and interest payable semi-annually. The transaction forms part of the group’s broader balance sheet management strategy as it continues to fund and operate its global base metals portfolio.

The company is using the proceeds, together with cash on hand, to fully redeem $1.35 billion of higher-cost 9.375% senior secured second-lien notes due 2029, repay drawn amounts under its revolving credit facility and cover transaction expenses. By refinancing more expensive secured debt with longer-dated unsecured paper, First Quantum reduces its interest burden, extends its debt maturity profile and increases financial flexibility, moves that are likely to be closely watched by creditors and equity investors in the capital-intensive mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum’s New Taca Taca Study Confirms Flagship Copper Project’s Scale and Economics

First Quantum Minerals has filed a new NI 43-101 technical report for its 100%-owned Taca Taca copper-gold-molybdenum project in Argentina’s Salta Province, positioning it as the company’s next major development asset. The study outlines an open-pit operation starting at 40 million tonnes per year of processing capacity, ramping up to 60 million tonnes from year five, using large-scale SAG mill trains similar to those at Sentinel, Cobre Panamá and Kansanshi.

The report highlights robust project economics, with an after-tax NPV at 8% of $5.9 billion and an IRR of 19.3% based on higher assumed copper and gold prices, underpinned by a 35-year mine life and a 13% increase in proven and probable reserves versus the 2021 study. Average annual production is forecast at 291,000 tonnes of copper and 133,000 ounces of gold in the first decade at low C1 cash costs, while the project shows strong leverage to copper prices and relatively low capital intensity per tonne of copper equivalent capacity.

Management emphasized Taca Taca’s strategic importance and Argentina’s improving investment climate, citing recent economic reforms and the project’s strong environmental and community credentials. The mine is expected to prioritize renewable power, biodiversity management and sustainable water use, as First Quantum continues de-risking through environmental and social impact assessment work, regulatory applications and financing evaluations that will influence its eventual development decision and capital allocation priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum upsizes $1.5bn note issue to refinance costlier debt

First Quantum Minerals has priced and upsized a new issue of 6.375% senior unsecured notes due 2036 to $1.5 billion from an originally planned $1.35 billion, with settlement expected around February 26, 2026. The notes, issued at par and guaranteed by certain subsidiaries, will pay interest semi-annually and sit as senior obligations in the group’s capital structure.

The company plans to use the proceeds, together with existing cash, to fully redeem its outstanding $1.35 billion 9.375% senior secured second lien notes due 2029, repay drawings under its revolving credit facility and cover transaction costs. The refinancing lowers First Quantum’s borrowing costs, extends its debt maturity profile and simplifies its security package, which may improve financial flexibility and interest expense over time for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$44.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Minerals to Raise US$1.35 Billion in Senior Notes to Refinance High-Cost Debt

First Quantum Minerals has launched an offering of US$1.35 billion in senior unsecured notes, which will be guaranteed by certain subsidiaries, with interest payable semi-annually and final pricing terms to be set subject to market conditions. The company plans to use the proceeds, together with existing cash, to fully redeem its 9.375% senior secured second lien notes due 2029 and cover related transaction costs, effectively refinancing higher-cost debt and potentially improving its capital structure and financial flexibility.

The notes issuance underscores First Quantum’s continued access to international debt markets and may lower its interest burden over time if priced favorably, supporting liquidity as it manages a capital-intensive mining portfolio. The move also shifts part of its obligations from secured to unsecured debt, which could have implications for creditor hierarchy while signaling management’s confidence in the company’s balance sheet and cash generation capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$44.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum lifts balance-sheet flexibility as Kansanshi S3 ramps up and Panama allows ore processing

First Quantum Minerals reported fourth-quarter 2025 net earnings of $25 million and adjusted earnings of $5 million, helped by stronger realized copper and gold prices despite a 4% sequential drop in copper output to 100,374 tonnes and higher cash costs. The company underscored successful delivery and ramp-up of the Kansanshi S3 expansion, proactive balance-sheet management including a $1 billion streaming deal, and a new $2.2 billion term loan and revolving facility that extend maturities and bolster liquidity.

Management highlighted record milled volumes at Kansanshi, where S3 achieved commercial production in December and lifted copper production to 47,655 tonnes, while copper sales exceeded production by roughly 7,700 tonnes. The update also flagged a tentative breakthrough at Cobre Panamá, with the Panamanian government approving processing of stockpiled ore, a move that will generate over 1,000 direct jobs, environmental management benefits and royalties, though it does not yet constitute a full mine restart.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Hits 2025 Output Targets, Trims Near-Term Guidance and Awaits Panama Stockpile Approval

First Quantum Minerals reported preliminary 2025 production of 396,000 tonnes of copper, in line with revised guidance, alongside higher year-on-year gold output of 152,000 ounces and nickel production of 23,200 tonnes, supported by the under‑budget completion and ramp-up of the Kansanshi S3 expansion in Zambia. Looking ahead to 2026–2028, the company slightly reduced copper and gold production guidance for 2026 and 2027 due to maintenance and ore-grade issues at Sentinel and Kansanshi, raised cost guidance and 2026 capital spending following deferrals from 2025, and highlighted a potential environmental and operational de-risking at Cobre Panamá as the Panamanian government moves toward authorizing the processing of low-grade ore stockpiles, which is expected to create jobs and manage tailings and drainage risks while the mine remains formally closed.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Sets Dates for 2025 Results, Production Update and Guidance

First Quantum Minerals has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial and operating results for February 10, 2026, after the close of trading in Toronto, to be followed by a conference call and webcast on February 11. The company will also publish its 2025 preliminary production figures and a new three-year operational guidance update on January 15, 2026, signaling an important checkpoint for investors and other stakeholders as it navigates ongoing operational changes, including the preservation status of Cobre Panamá, care and maintenance at Ravensthorpe, and the continued development of key Latin American growth projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Minerals to Sell Spanish Las Cruces Mine for Up to $190 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its wholly owned Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, a company controlled by funds managed by Resource Capital Funds, for consideration of up to $190 million plus a profitability‑linked earn-out. The transaction, which includes an upfront cash payment, a loan note, milestone-based deferred payments and contingent earn-out tied to future exit events, is expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, marking First Quantum’s exit from the Las Cruces polymetallic redevelopment project and handing its next development phase to a private equity-backed buyer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum to Sell Spain’s Cobre Las Cruces Mine for Up to $190 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its wholly owned Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, a vehicle controlled by Resource Capital Funds, for consideration of up to $190 million plus a profitability-linked earn-out. The deal structure includes $45 million in cash on closing, a loan note of about $65 million, up to $80 million in deferred milestone payments tied to development of the polymetallic primary sulphide project at the site, and an additional contingent earn-out based on future exit and liquidity events, with closing targeted for the first half of 2026. The transaction marks First Quantum’s exit from the Las Cruces operation, which previously produced copper cathodes and was slated for redevelopment into an underground polymetallic mine, and shifts the project’s future development to Resource Capital Funds, a specialist mining private equity investor, potentially enhancing capital and execution resources for advancing the asset while giving First Quantum financial flexibility and exposure to future upside through deferred and contingent payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.