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Frontera Energy Corporation (TSE:FEC)
TSX:FEC

Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis

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Frontera Energy

(TSX:FEC)

53Neutral
Frontera Energy's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. While the company benefits from stable cash flow and proactive capital management, it struggles with profitability issues and bearish technical indicators. The valuation is weighed down by negative earnings, though the dividend yield offers some investor returns. The recent earnings call and corporate events reveal both growth potential and legal risks, contributing to a moderately cautious outlook.

Frontera Energy (FEC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFrontera Energy Corporation (FEC) is a Canada-based oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. Operating primarily in Latin America, the company holds a diverse portfolio of assets across Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, and Peru. Frontera Energy focuses on optimizing its existing operations while exploring opportunities for growth through strategic investments and acquisitions in the energy sector.
How the Company Makes MoneyFrontera Energy makes money primarily through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is centered around the production and sale of hydrocarbons, which are sold to local and international markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil and gas, as well as any additional income generated from strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies. Factors such as global oil prices, production levels, and operational efficiency significantly influence the company's earnings. Frontera Energy also benefits from its strategic location and access to key markets in Latin America, which helps in optimizing transportation and distribution costs.

Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Frontera Energy exhibits mixed financial performance. While the company maintains stable equity and positive cash flow, it faces profitability challenges with negative net income and decreased gross profit margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but high liabilities demand careful management. Cash flow remains a strength, offering liquidity support.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Frontera Energy's revenue has shown fluctuations, with a decline from 2022 to 2023 and a slight recovery in 2024. Gross profit margins have decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024, and net income has turned negative in 2024, indicating profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also deteriorated, highlighting operational inefficiencies. Despite these challenges, the company has a history of strong revenue, which could provide a foundation for future growth with improved cost management.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a relatively stable balance sheet with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been consistent, and the equity ratio indicates a decent asset financing structure. However, total liabilities remain high compared to stockholders' equity, suggesting a need for careful management of leverage. The return on equity has been positive in previous years, but the recent net income losses pose a risk to future equity returns.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Frontera Energy has shown a positive operating cash flow, which is a strength in maintaining liquidity. The free cash flow has improved from negative in 2023 to positive in 2024, indicating better capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the recent net income loss could impact future cash flow sustainability. Overall, cash flow management appears strong, providing a buffer against short-term financial pressures.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.13B1.15B1.37B926.63M658.19M
Gross Profit
212.78M516.50M506.77M350.97M-187.13M
EBIT
116.66M154.17M467.31M332.13M-241.25M
EBITDA
390.90M523.25M777.26M807.66M-142.70M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-24.16M193.50M286.62M628.13M-481.91M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
192.58M159.67M289.85M257.50M232.29M
Total Assets
2.90B3.02B2.74B2.61B2.06B
Total Debt
506.04M536.82M511.55M560.13M538.24M
Net Debt
313.46M377.15M221.71M302.63M305.96M
Total Liabilities
1.17B1.18B1.15B1.16B1.30B
Stockholders Equity
1.72B1.82B1.58B1.40B703.85M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
159.38M-24.60M204.82M15.62M129.04M
Operating Cash Flow
510.03M411.79M620.48M327.38M226.78M
Investing Cash Flow
-339.25M-484.32M-383.27M-186.94M-178.53M
Financing Cash Flow
-128.86M-62.66M-193.60M-108.38M-132.53M

Frontera Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.12
Price Trends
50DMA
7.17
Negative
100DMA
7.68
Negative
200DMA
7.77
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.16
Negative
RSI
42.67
Neutral
STOCH
35.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.60, below the 50-day MA of 7.17, and below the 200-day MA of 7.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FEC.

Frontera Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSSU
77
Outperform
$58.47B10.0113.82%4.83%3.25%-25.69%
TSMEG
72
Outperform
$5.12B10.5511.22%1.56%-8.92%-5.46%
TSTOU
71
Outperform
C$23.27B17.568.55%2.44%-8.29%-30.52%
TSBTE
68
Neutral
$1.79B7.885.99%4.06%22.71%
TSCVE
67
Neutral
$29.18B9.5310.88%4.60%3.97%-22.22%
57
Neutral
$7.70B4.18-3.52%8.32%0.35%-64.68%
TSFEC
53
Neutral
$395.75M4.28-1.37%4.96%-1.54%-113.55%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
5.12
-3.14
-38.04%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
2.32
-2.84
-55.06%
TSE:MEG
MEG Energy
19.95
-12.79
-39.07%
TSE:CVE
Cenovus Energy
16.00
-12.05
-42.95%
TSE:SU
Suncor Energy
47.26
-3.13
-6.21%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
62.18
0.28
0.45%

Frontera Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 10, 2025 | % Change Since: -22.52% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Frontera Energy's strong financial position, successful infrastructure business, and substantial return of capital to shareholders. However, these positive aspects were offset by a net loss for the year, production challenges, and cost pressures due to inflation. Despite these challenges, the company maintained a steady outlook for 2025.
Highlights
Strong Financial Position
Frontera Energy closed the year with a strong balance sheet, including $223 million cash position, and lowered its consolidated debt and lease liabilities by over $30 million.
Infrastructure Business Success
The infrastructure business segment delivered a 2024 adjusted infrastructure EBITDA of over $107 million. The Company received over $60 million in dividends and capital distributions from ODL.
Record Production Levels
The CPE-6 block reached a record daily production level of close to 9,000 BOE per day in the fourth quarter.
High Stakeholder Engagement
Frontera was recognized among the top 20 best companies to work in Colombia by Great Place to Work and was recognized as one of the most ethical companies by Ethisphere for the fourth consecutive year.
Return of Capital to Shareholders
Frontera returned approximately $83 million to shareholders in 2024, including $15.1 million in declared dividends and $7.8 million through the repurchase of common shares.
Lowlights
Net Loss for the Year
The Company recorded a net loss of $24.2 million or $0.29 per share, due to deferred income tax expense and finance expenses.
Production Guidance Challenges
Year-to-date 2025 gross production was approximately 40,400 barrels per day, below the guidance range due to unexpected well failures.
Hedging and Cost Pressures
The Company faced higher costs due to inflationary pressures and indexation on wages. The production, energy, and transportation costs per barrel were in line but showed signs of pressure from these factors.
Company Guidance
During the call, Frontera Energy highlighted its successful achievement of 2024 guidance targets, including closing the year with a $223 million cash position and reducing consolidated debt by over $30 million. The company received a reaffirmation of its credit ratings with a B+ from S&P and B from Fitch, reflecting a stable outlook. The infrastructure segment generated an adjusted EBITDA of over $107 million, and Frontera gained over $60 million in dividends from ODL. In 2024, Frontera returned approximately $83 million to shareholders, including $15.1 million in declared dividends and $7.8 million through share repurchases. The company maintained a production cost of $9.34 per barrel and reported a net loss of $24.2 million for the year. Looking forward, Frontera plans to invest between $30 million and $40 million in exploration in 2025, focusing on key projects like the Hidra-1 exploration well. The company also outlined a fully-funded 2025 plan targeting a production range of 41,000 to 43,000 BOE per day and generating $350 million to $380 million in upstream operating EBITDA.

Frontera Energy Corporate Events

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera and CGX Dispute License Termination by Guyana Government
Negative
Mar 13, 2025

Frontera Energy and CGX Energy, through their joint venture, have received a notice from the Government of Guyana stating the termination of their Petroleum Agreement and Prospecting License for the Corentyne block offshore Guyana. Despite the government’s position, the joint venture maintains that their interests and license remain valid and seeks an amicable resolution with the government. They are prepared to assert their legal rights if necessary and are eager to continue their investments to benefit both the people of Guyana and their shareholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Recognized as One of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for 2025
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has been named one of the 2025 World’s Most Ethical Companies by Ethisphere for the fifth consecutive year, highlighting its dedication to business integrity through robust ethics, compliance, and governance programs. This recognition places Frontera among only two honorees in the Oil & Gas industry, reflecting its commitment to integrity and transparency, which fosters trust with stakeholders and enhances its industry positioning.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontera Energy Reports 2024 Financial Results and Operational Achievements
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

Frontera Energy reported a net loss of $24.2 million for 2024, despite generating $116.7 million in income from operations and achieving an operating EBITDA of $424 million. The company met all 2024 guidance metrics, including an annual production of 40,288 Boe/d and a production cost of $9.34/boe. Frontera recorded 151.3 million Boe 2P gross reserves and a 1P reserves replacement ratio of 45%. The company also achieved its sustainability goals, including its best-ever TRIR performance, and declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.0625 per share.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontera Energy to Announce Year-End 2024 Financial Results
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the release of its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and year-end 2024, along with its year-end reserves and an operational update scheduled for March 10, 2025. The company plans a conference call on the same day for investors and analysts to discuss these results. This announcement highlights Frontera’s continued focus on transparency and communication with stakeholders, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Frontera and CGX Face License Termination Challenge in Guyana
Negative
Feb 11, 2025

Frontera Energy and CGX Energy have received a communication from the Government of Guyana regarding the termination of their Petroleum Prospecting License for the Corentyne block offshore Guyana. The Government claims there are no grounds for extending the license and has issued a notice of its intention to cancel it. The joint venture is evaluating legal options to defend its interests, while remaining committed to resolving the issue to continue their investments in Guyana.

Stock Buyback
Frontera Energy Completes $42 Million Share Repurchase
Positive
Jan 28, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has completed an additional substantial issuer bid, repurchasing 3,500,000 common shares at $12.00 per share for a total of $42 million. This move, following a successful issuer bid in October 2024, demonstrates the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and indicates a proactive approach in managing its share capital, with plans to initiate further share repurchases in the future.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Reports on Oversubscribed Share Buyback Offer
Neutral
Jan 27, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced the preliminary results of its substantial issuer bid, where it aimed to repurchase up to CAD$42 million of its outstanding common shares at CAD$12.00 per share. The offer was oversubscribed, with approximately 73.18 million shares tendered, resulting in shareholders having about 4.78% of their tendered shares purchased. This move is expected to reduce the number of issued and outstanding shares to approximately 77.29 million, reflecting Frontera’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.