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MEG Energy (TSE:MEG)
TSX:MEG
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MEG Energy (MEG) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:MEG

MEG Energy

(TSX:MEG)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$34.00
▲(15.10% Upside)
MEG Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. While the company faces challenges with declining revenue and free cash flow growth, its robust balance sheet and positive technical indicators provide a solid foundation. The valuation is fair, reflecting the stock's current market position.
Positive Factors
Strategic Growth Initiatives
The facility expansion project will increase production capacity, supporting long-term growth and enhancing MEG's competitive position in the oil market.
Strong Balance Sheet
A robust balance sheet with low leverage provides MEG Energy with financial stability and flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather industry volatility.
Dividend Increase
The dividend increase reflects management's confidence in the company's cash flow generation and financial health, appealing to income-focused investors.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
Declining revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining market share or pricing power, which could impact long-term profitability and strategic objectives.
Negative Free Cash Flow Growth
Negative free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in converting earnings into cash, potentially limiting MEG's ability to fund new projects or return capital to shareholders.
Increased Capital Expenditures
Higher capital expenditures can strain financial resources and may not immediately translate into revenue, impacting short-term financial performance and liquidity.

MEG Energy (MEG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

MEG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMEG Energy Corp., an energy company, focuses on sustainable in situ thermal oil production in the southern Athabasca oil region of Alberta, Canada. The company owns a 100% interest in approximately 410 square miles of mineral leases. It also develops oil recovery projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage extraction methods to improve the recovery of oil, as well as lower carbon emissions. The company transports and sells thermal oil to refiners in North America and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 2.0 billion barrels of gross proved plus probable bitumen reserves at the Christina Lake Project. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyMEG Energy generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil from its oil sands operations. The company utilizes its proprietary SAGD technology to extract heavy oil, which is then processed and sold to refiners and other customers. Key revenue streams include the sale of blended crude oil, which is typically sold at prices linked to benchmark crude indices, and natural gas liquids. Additionally, MEG's financial performance can be influenced by oil prices, production volumes, and operating costs. The company may also benefit from partnerships with other energy firms for technology sharing and operational efficiencies, as well as transportation agreements that facilitate the movement of its products to market.

MEG Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Despite challenges due to wildfires and increased capital expenditures, MEG Energy demonstrated strong financial performance with significant free cash flow, a successful turnaround, and strategic growth initiatives. The company remains on track with its expansion project and increased its dividend, signaling confidence in its business model.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Turnaround Completion
MEG Energy completed the largest planned turnaround in its history on time, on budget, and with exceptional safety performance despite wildfire conditions.
Significant Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
MEG generated $148 million in free cash flow in the first half of the year and returned $220 million to shareholders, repurchasing approximately 3% of shares outstanding. They expect to generate over $500 million of free cash flow in 2025.
Facility Expansion Project on Track
The facility expansion project, set to add 25,000 barrels per day by mid-2027, is on track and on budget, with 150 tie-ins completed to minimize future production interruptions.
Dividend Increase
The Board approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.11 per share, payable on October 15, 2025.
Reduced Operating Costs Expected
Operating costs net of power revenue were $10.88 per barrel in Q2, expected to significantly decrease as production rises in the second half of 2025.
Negative Updates
Wildfire Impact and Production Delays
Wildfires caused damage to third-party infrastructure, delaying the post-turnaround ramp-up by approximately 12 days and reducing volumes by an additional 12,000 barrels per day.
Lower Bitumen Realizations and Sales Volumes
Adjusted funds flow in Q2 was $125 million or $0.49 per share, reflecting lower bitumen realizations and reduced sales volumes due to the planned turnaround and wildfire-related delays.
Increased Capital Expenditures
Capital expenditures in Q2 totaled $200 million, up from $123 million in Q2 2024, driven by the planned turnaround and continued investment in the facility expansion project.
Company Guidance
During MEG Energy's Second Quarter 2025 conference call, President and CEO Darlene Gates highlighted significant achievements and future guidance. The company successfully completed the largest planned turnaround in its history, managing to do so on time and within budget despite the challenges posed by regional wildfires. This effort, along with over 150 tie-ins for a facility expansion project, is set to add 25,000 barrels per day of production capacity by mid-2027. MEG generated $148 million in free cash flow in the first half of the year and returned $220 million to shareholders, repurchasing approximately 3% of shares outstanding. The company maintains its full-year 2025 operating and capital guidance, with production in July averaging about 109,000 barrels per day. The Board approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.11 per share, reflecting confidence in their business model. MEG anticipates generating over $500 million in free cash flow for the year at current strip pricing. Additionally, operating costs are expected to decrease as production rises, with capital expenditures in Q2 totaling $200 million. The ongoing strategic growth initiatives aim to deliver low-risk, capital-efficient growth, targeting 135,000 barrels per day.

MEG Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MEG Energy shows strong operational efficiency and a stable balance sheet, but faces challenges with declining revenue and free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
MEG Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has maintained a solid gross profit margin of 39.06% in the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 11.46%, reflecting a decline in profitability. Revenue growth has been negative, with a significant drop of 12.87% in the TTM, which is a concern. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 16.16% and 26.10%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet of MEG Energy is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity stands at 11.99%, reflecting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a stable financial structure with a good proportion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -2.07% in the TTM, indicating a decline in cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.63, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.51, showing that a reasonable portion of net income is being converted into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.33B5.15B5.65B6.12B4.32B2.29B
Gross Profit2.36B2.51B2.56B3.13B2.12B469.00M
EBITDA1.27B1.47B1.48B2.05B1.04B569.00M
Net Income551.00M507.00M569.00M902.00M283.00M-357.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.78B7.39B6.90B7.03B7.59B7.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments195.00M156.00M160.00M192.00M361.00M114.00M
Total Debt1.05B1.10B1.38B1.82B3.03B3.20B
Total Liabilities2.16B2.84B2.37B2.65B3.79B3.72B
Stockholders Equity4.62B4.55B4.53B4.38B3.81B3.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow711.00M792.00M900.00M1.51B359.00M153.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.38B1.34B1.35B1.89B690.00M302.00M
Investing Cash Flow-614.00M-501.00M-478.00M-354.00M-281.00M-189.00M
Financing Cash Flow-657.00M-860.00M-896.00M-1.73B-165.00M-216.00M

MEG Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.54
Price Trends
50DMA
28.62
Positive
100DMA
27.39
Positive
200DMA
24.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Positive
RSI
56.04
Neutral
STOCH
48.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MEG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.12, above the 50-day MA of 28.62, and above the 200-day MA of 24.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MEG.

MEG Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
C$4.13B12.2712.21%6.55%7.02%7.16%
$13.09B9.0710.88%6.95%36.36%-19.92%
$7.33B13.6311.70%1.38%-22.92%0.54%
C$7.70B10.8010.85%3.05%20.21%7.08%
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
$5.83B26.878.16%4.10%-1.59%0.09%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MEG
MEG Energy
29.54
4.86
19.67%
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
10.55
0.85
8.81%
TSE:PSK
PrairieSky Royalty
25.15
-1.86
-6.88%
TSE:PEY
Peyto Exploration & Dev
20.39
6.08
42.49%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
36.20
9.51
35.63%

MEG Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
MEG Energy Enhances Cenovus Transaction with Improved Shareholder Consideration
Positive
Oct 27, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced an improved transaction agreement with Cenovus Energy Inc., enhancing the consideration payable to MEG shareholders to $30.00 per share, split equally between cash and Cenovus shares. This move, supported by Strathcona Resources Ltd., is expected to secure approximately 79% shareholder approval, positioning MEG favorably within the industry and potentially impacting its market valuation and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Sell with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Postpones Shareholder Vote on Cenovus Transaction
Neutral
Oct 21, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced the postponement of its special shareholder meeting to vote on the proposed Cenovus Transaction to October 30, 2025. This decision comes as approximately 63% of MEG shares are in favor of the transaction, despite opposition from Strathcona Resources Ltd. The postponement allows shareholders additional time to submit proxies and vote. The Cenovus Transaction, valued at approximately $8.5 billion, offers a 44% premium on MEG’s share price and promises significant synergies, with Cenovus expecting to realize substantial annual savings. The MEG Board recommends the transaction due to its enhanced premium and strategic benefits.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Urges Shareholders to Support Enhanced Cenovus Deal
Positive
Oct 14, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced an improved transaction agreement with Cenovus Energy, offering MEG shareholders $29.79 per share, payable in cash and Cenovus shares. The company urges shareholders to vote in favor of this improved transaction before the revised proxy deadline, highlighting the increased value and strategic benefits of the deal, which aims to enhance MEG’s market position and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Enhances Cenovus Deal Terms, Sets New Shareholder Meeting Date
Positive
Oct 11, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced an amended agreement with Cenovus Energy Inc., enhancing the terms of their previously agreed transaction. The amended deal increases the consideration for MEG shareholders to $29.79 per share, reflecting a more favorable exchange based on Cenovus’s recent share price. The shareholder meeting has been rescheduled to October 22, 2025, to provide additional time for shareholders to vote on the improved transaction, which is expected to close by October 27, 2025. This development signifies a strategic move for MEG, potentially strengthening its market position and offering better value to its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Announces Enhanced Cenovus Transaction with Increased Shareholder Benefits
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced an amended transaction agreement with Cenovus Energy Inc., increasing the consideration for MEG shareholders to $29.80 per share, a $2.35 increase from the initial offer. The revised deal, which includes a mix of cash and Cenovus shares, enhances shareholder participation in Cenovus’s growth potential and synergies, with the MEG board recommending a vote in favor of the transaction. The special meeting for shareholder voting has been postponed to October 22, 2025, to allow more time for proxy deposits.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Urges Shareholders to Approve Cenovus Transaction
Positive
Oct 1, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. is urging its shareholders to vote in favor of a proposed transaction with Cenovus Energy Inc. before the upcoming proxy deadline. The transaction offers MEG shareholders a choice between cash, Cenovus shares, or a combination of both as compensation for their shares, with the deal valuing MEG at approximately $8.2 billion. The MEG Board and leading proxy advisory firms have recommended approval of the transaction, which could significantly impact MEG’s market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Receives Strong Support for Cenovus Acquisition
Positive
Oct 1, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced that Glass Lewis, a leading independent proxy advisory firm, has recommended that MEG shareholders vote in favor of the acquisition by Cenovus Energy Inc. This endorsement follows a similar recommendation by Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. The transaction is valued at approximately $8.2 billion and offers MEG shareholders the option of cash, Cenovus shares, or a combination of both. The deal is expected to unlock significant operational synergies and provide a stronger long-term platform for MEG’s assets, with the potential to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MEG Energy Shareholders Urged to Support Cenovus Transaction
Positive
Sep 26, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. has announced that Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (ISS), a leading proxy advisory firm, recommends its shareholders vote in favor of a transaction with Cenovus Energy Inc. This transaction is expected to unlock substantial synergy value and provide MEG shareholders with significant cash and share consideration, as well as participation in the long-term value creation potential of the combined company. The transaction has received necessary regulatory approvals from both Canadian and U.S. authorities, and MEG shareholders are encouraged to vote before the deadline. The deal is seen as more favorable compared to a competing offer from Strathcona Resources Ltd., which presents certain risks and lacks widespread shareholder support.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
MEG Energy Endorses Cenovus Deal Over Strathcona Offer
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

MEG Energy’s Board of Directors has reaffirmed its recommendation for shareholders to support the Cenovus Transaction, rejecting the revised offer from Strathcona Resources. The board argues that the Strathcona offer exposes shareholders to inferior assets and greater financial risks, while the Cenovus deal promises substantial cash, value certainty, and long-term growth potential, aligning with shareholder interests and enhancing MEG’s market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
MEG Energy Recommends Shareholders Support Cenovus Deal Over Strathcona Offer
Negative
Sep 15, 2025

MEG Energy’s Board of Directors has unanimously recommended that shareholders reject the revised offer from Strathcona Resources Ltd. and instead support the transaction with Cenovus Energy Inc. The Cenovus transaction is valued at approximately $8.2 billion and offers MEG shareholders a choice of cash or Cenovus shares, promising value realization and lower risk. In contrast, the revised Strathcona offer is criticized for exposing shareholders to inferior assets, unproven track records, and significant financial risks, including a special distribution that weakens the balance sheet of the combined company.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
MEG Energy to be Acquired by Cenovus Energy in $7.9 Billion Deal
Positive
Aug 22, 2025

MEG Energy has entered into an agreement to be acquired by Cenovus Energy in a transaction valued at $7.9 billion, including the assumption of MEG’s debt. The deal offers MEG shareholders a 33% premium on their shares, with a mix of 75% cash and 25% Cenovus shares, providing value certainty and the opportunity to participate in the growth of a leading industry producer. The acquisition has been unanimously approved by MEG’s Board of Directors, who recommend shareholders vote in favor of the transaction, citing significant synergies and enhanced value realization from the amalgamation of assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Buy with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

MEG Energy Reports Q2 2025 Results and Dividend Increase
Aug 2, 2025

MEG Energy Corp, a leading Canadian in situ thermal oil producer, specializes in the production, transportation, and sale of crude oil across North America and internationally. The company recently reported its second-quarter 2025 results, highlighting the successful completion of a major turnaround and an effective wildfire response. Additionally, MEG announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.11 per share, reflecting confidence in its strategic direction and commitment to shareholder returns.

MEG Energy’s Earnings Call: Resilience Amid Challenges
Aug 2, 2025

MEG Energy Corp’s recent earnings call presented a balanced sentiment, highlighting both strong operational achievements and external challenges. The company successfully completed a major turnaround and showed a promising outlook for free cash flow and shareholder returns. However, the positive news was tempered by the impact of wildfires, lower commodity prices, and increased operating costs. While MEG Energy is well-positioned for growth, these external challenges have affected its short-term performance.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
MEG Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Increases Dividend
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

MEG Energy Corp. reported its second-quarter 2025 results, highlighting the successful completion of its largest planned turnaround amidst challenging wildfire conditions. The company also announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.11 per share, reflecting confidence in its strategic direction and commitment to shareholder returns. Key achievements include excellent safety performance, a safe wildfire response, and significant progress on the Facility Expansion Project, which remains on track for completion in 2027. Financially, MEG generated adjusted funds flow of $125 million and maintained production levels despite delays, with capital expenditures on plan and shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MEG) stock is a Buy with a C$33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MEG Energy stock, see the TSE:MEG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025