Tourmaline Oil (TOU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$26.34B
• Dividend Yield: 4.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 89.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 8.97%
• EPS Growth: -21.15%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 458
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -1.69
• Shares Outstanding: 387,010,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,971,229
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,411,714
• PEG Ratio: -1.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 61.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$69.83
• Price Target Upside: 2.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$6.67B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: C$76.00 ▲(11.68% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/07/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (low leverage and strong operating cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook focused on debt reduction and capital/cost discipline. Technicals are mildly supportive but not strongly bullish, while valuation is a key limiter due to a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Tourmaline's historically low leverage and large equity base provide durable financing flexibility. Manageable net debt and a stated long-term net-debt target support the company’s ability to fund prioritized capex, absorb commodity shocks, and pursue sustained debt reduction and dividends.

Strong operating cash generation

Consistent operating cash flow well above accounting earnings indicates high-quality cash generation. This underpins the firm's capacity to fund development, sustain a base dividend, and pursue targeted debt paydown even through commodity cycles, enabling structural financial resilience.

Large reserves and production scale

A very large reserve base and record production create long-term optionality for sustained output or monetization. High organic 2P additions and industry-leading drilling scale lower unit costs, support multi-year development plans, and strengthen bargaining power in takeaway/marketing arrangements.

Negative Factors

Commodity price sensitivity

Tourmaline's cash flows are materially exposed to Western Canadian and West Coast gas prices; large AECO/PG&E swings can change annual cash flow by tens of millions. Persistent low regional pricing can undercut debt targets, capex plans, and dividend capacity across multiple quarters.

Reduced near-term production base

The asset sale and ethane termination lower the company's scale and near-term revenue base. Reduced volumes constrain absolute cash generation and growth optionality, making it harder to offset weaker commodity realizations and potentially altering longer-term development timing.

Volatile free cash flow and stepped-down profitability

Free cash flow has been inconsistent and 2025 showed a marked earnings and FCF step-down while total debt rose. This combination reduces headroom for discretionary investment, increases reliance on active capital management, and raises execution risk if weaker pricing persists.

Tourmaline Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tourmaline Oil Corp. acquires, explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It holds interests in properties located in the Alberta Deep Basin, Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River High Triassic oil complex. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Tourmaline makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons: (1) Natural gas sales: The largest portion of revenue typically comes from selling produced natural gas. Revenue is driven by realized gas prices (which vary with benchmark indices, location differentials, and contract terms) multiplied by production volumes, net of transportation and marketing arrangements. (2) Crude oil sales: A smaller portion of revenue comes from crude oil production sold into regional markets, with realized pricing influenced by Canadian and North American benchmarks and quality/location differentials. (3) NGL sales: The company also earns revenue from natural gas liquids (e.g., condensate and other liquids) separated from produced gas streams; NGL pricing is tied to liquid hydrocarbon markets and can be particularly material when condensate pricing is strong. Beyond commodity sales, earnings and cash flow are affected by operating costs, royalties, transportation and processing fees, and capital spending required to drill and complete wells and connect production. The company’s ability to secure takeaway capacity, processing arrangements, and marketing/hedging strategies (if and when used) can materially influence realized pricing, revenue stability, and netbacks; if specific current hedging positions, contract counterparties, or named partnerships are not publicly available in the prompt, they are null.

Tourmaline Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong financial foundation led by a conservatively levered balance sheet and robust operating cash flow. However, results are commodity-cyclical and 2025 shows a notable step-down in profitability and weaker/free-cash-flow consistency versus prior peak years, which tempers the score.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile (strong growth in 2021–2022, declines in 2023–2024, then a rebound in 2025). Profitability was exceptionally strong in 2021–2024 with very high margins, but 2025 shows a sharp step-down in earnings power (much lower gross profit and net income versus prior years), signaling weaker pricing/realizations and/or higher costs. Overall: solid historical profitability with increased recent pressure and cyclicality risk typical of the sector.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered: debt-to-equity was low in 2021–2024 (roughly 0.05–0.08), and equity has remained very large and stable versus assets. Total debt rose in 2025 versus 2024, but leverage still appears manageable given the company’s sizable equity base. Key watch-out: rising debt alongside softer 2025 profitability could reduce flexibility if the downcycle persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been consistently strong, with operating cash flow generally exceeding net income in 2020–2024, indicating good earnings quality. Free cash flow, however, is highly variable—peaking in 2022 and trending lower in 2023–2025, with negative growth rates in recent years and relatively modest free cash flow in 2024 versus net income. Overall: strong operating cash flow engine, but less consistent cash left after investment/capital needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.82B	4.35B	4.84B	7.10B	4.77B
Gross Profit	321.04M	2.20B	2.95B	5.37B	3.43B
EBITDA	3.10B	3.16B	3.34B	7.08B	2.83B
Net Income	262.67M	1.26B	1.74B	4.49B	2.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.87B	22.70B	20.48B	19.04B	16.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	1.89B	1.30B	1.13B	629.26M	880.74M
Total Liabilities	7.43B	7.15B	6.47B	5.35B	4.55B
Stockholders Equity	15.44B	15.54B	14.02B	13.69B	11.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	379.12M	470.63M	1.67B	2.74B	864.19M
Operating Cash Flow	3.39B	2.73B	4.41B	4.69B	2.85B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.73B	-1.64B	-2.60B	-1.97B	-1.38B
Financing Cash Flow	-653.49M	-1.09B	-1.80B	-2.72B	-1.69B

Tourmaline Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 68.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.96, above the 50-day MA of 62.66, and above the 200-day MA of 60.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TOU.

Tourmaline Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEY	78 Outperform	C$5.65B	10.89	15.30%	5.77%	11.52%	24.76%
ARX	71 Outperform	C$16.57B	11.74	15.52%	2.95%	15.61%	12.15%
TOU	69 Neutral	C$26.34B	89.45	8.69%	4.79%	8.97%	-21.15%
KEL	66 Neutral	C$1.80B	24.19	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BIR	61 Neutral	$2.13B	31.40	2.90%	1.59%	-9.76%	374.65%
AAV	54 Neutral	$1.93B	36.95	3.19%	―	27.84%	28.87%

Tourmaline Oil Corporate Events

Tourmaline to Issue $250 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes to Refinance Debt

Tourmaline Oil Corp. has agreed to issue $250 million of senior unsecured notes due March 16, 2031, at par with a fixed annual coupon of 3.934%, payable semi-annually. The notes, rated BBB (High) with a stable trend by DBRS Limited, will be offered in Canada on a private-placement, best-efforts basis through a syndicate of agents led by Scotiabank, CIBC Capital Markets and National Bank Capital Markets.

The notes will be direct, unsecured obligations ranking equally with Tourmaline’s other unsecured, unsubordinated debt, and are expected to be issued around March 16, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. Net proceeds are earmarked to repay existing indebtedness and for general corporate purposes, supporting the company’s long-term net debt target of $1.75 billion, or about 0.5 times net debt to cash flow, and reinforcing its strategy of diversifying low-cost funding as it builds scale as a leading North American oil and gas producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOU) stock is a Buy with a C$71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tourmaline Oil stock, see the TSE:TOU Stock Forecast page.

Tourmaline Sets Production and Reserve Records While Cutting 2026 Capital Plan

Tourmaline reported record fourth-quarter 2025 average production of 659,204 boepd and a January 2026 record above 685,000 boepd, alongside record liquids output and a 2025 addition of 829 million boe of proved plus probable reserves, including a corporate high in organic reserve growth. Operating costs fell more than 9% in the second half to $4.66 per boe, and the company plans to boost operating netbacks by ending discretionary deep cut gas plant deliveries, which will trim ethane volumes but is expected to lift netbacks in 2026 and 2027.

The producer completed the $765 million sale of its Peace River High assets, shedding mature, higher-cost production and using the transaction to help cut year-end 2025 net debt to $1.5 billion, or 0.45 times forecast 2026 cash flow. With the divestiture and efficiency gains, Tourmaline has reduced its 2026 exploration and production capital spending forecast by $350 million while maintaining strong cash flow generation and sustaining a quarterly base dividend of $0.50 per share, supporting a strategy centered on free cash flow optimization and balance sheet strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOU) stock is a Buy with a C$72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tourmaline Oil stock, see the TSE:TOU Stock Forecast page.