Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.86B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 437.17K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 9.92%
• EPS Growth: 2.74%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 200,696,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 578,473
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 437,174
• PEG Ratio: 0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.27
• P/FCF Ratio: -31.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$10.68
• Price Target Upside: 15.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$684.50M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: C$10.00 ▲(8.11% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is driven primarily by a solid balance sheet and strong operating cash generation, but is capped by recent weakening fundamentals (margin compression, negative free cash flow, and higher debt). Technically the uptrend is favorable, though overbought signals raise near-term risk, and valuation looks less compelling at a ~24x P/E without dividend support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates a strong market position and effective strategies in expanding operations, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Profitability Margins

Improved profitability margins suggest effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing the company's ability to generate profits.

Balance Sheet Health

A low debt-to-equity ratio reflects financial stability and reduces risk, allowing the company to pursue growth opportunities with less financial strain.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow indicates difficulties in converting earnings into cash, which may limit the company's ability to invest in growth or weather downturns.

Gross Profit Margin Pressure

A declining gross profit margin suggests rising costs or pricing pressures, which could impact profitability if not managed effectively.

Cash Management Concerns

Persistent issues with cash management could hinder the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada. The company markets its crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production primarily to third party marketing companies. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved developed producing reserves of 43.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE); total proved reserves of 134.1 million BOE; and total proved plus probable reserves of 254.1 million BOE. Kelt Exploration Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into commodity markets. Its main revenue streams come from (1) natural gas sales, where produced gas is sold at market-linked prices (often referenced to regional benchmark indices) and revenue is driven by produced volumes and realized prices after transportation and other deductions; (2) crude oil sales, where produced oil is sold based on benchmark pricing adjusted for quality and location differentials, with revenues similarly dependent on volumes and realized pricing; and (3) natural gas liquids (NGL) sales (e.g., condensate and other liquids associated with gas production), which are sold separately and can contribute meaningfully depending on the liquids yield and prevailing prices. Earnings are influenced by commodity price fluctuations, production levels, operating costs, royalties, and transportation/processing arrangements required to move and treat hydrocarbons for sale. If applicable in a given period, additional cash flow can also come from dispositions of oil and gas properties or other non-core assets; however, specific, recurring partnership structures or customer concentration details are not publicly specified here and are therefore null.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: profitability remains positive (net income ~C$63M in 2025) and operating cash flow is strong (~C$264M, ~3.1x net income), while the balance sheet is a strength with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.16). Offsetting this, revenue declined in 2025, margins compressed sharply versus 2022–2024, debt has stepped up, and free cash flow has been negative in 2024–2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid in the most recent year (2025) with positive gross, operating, and net margins and net income of ~C$63M. However, the earnings profile has become materially less efficient versus 2022–2023 as gross margin fell to ~15% (from ~29% in 2024 and ~50% in 2022) and revenue growth turned negative in 2025. The company has also demonstrated meaningful cyclicality (notably the large loss in 2020), which tempers the quality and stability of the income stream.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains a clear strength: equity is sizable (~C$1.14B in 2025) relative to debt (~C$181M), keeping leverage moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.16 in 2025), even after a notable step-up in debt from 2024 and especially from the very low debt levels in 2021–2023. Returns on equity are positive but modest in 2025 (~5.5%) and down versus the stronger 2021–2022 period, suggesting profitability has not kept pace with the capital base recently.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and strong in 2025 (~C$264M) and comfortably exceeds net income (about 3.1x), indicating good cash earnings quality. The key weakness is free cash flow: it was negative in 2025 (~-C$49M) and 2024 (~-C$124M), and free cash flow trends have been volatile, implying elevated reinvestment needs and/or spending that is outpacing internally generated cash in recent years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	466.99M	468.43M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M
Gross Profit	71.85M	134.48M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M
EBITDA	237.38M	208.32M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M
Net Income	63.06M	45.42M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.60B	1.45B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	90.00K	228.00K	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K
Total Debt	180.88M	111.07M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M
Total Liabilities	460.88M	387.68M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M
Stockholders Equity	1.14B	1.06B	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-49.15M	-124.00M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M
Operating Cash Flow	264.26M	209.15M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-340.57M	-336.57M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M
Financing Cash Flow	76.18M	113.31M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.88, above the 50-day MA of 8.32, and above the 200-day MA of 7.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PXT	85 Outperform	$2.60B	5.03	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
CJ	70 Outperform	C$1.90B	-11.67	8.46%	8.25%	-9.30%	-26.09%
KEL	66 Neutral	C$1.86B	24.19	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VET	63 Neutral	C$2.92B	―	-24.89%	4.60%	-2.32%	70.14%
SDE	62 Neutral	C$2.42B	20.51	11.57%	―	17.31%	-75.56%
AAV	54 Neutral	$1.97B	36.95	3.19%	―	27.84%	28.87%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration lifts 2025 output and earnings despite plant delays

Kelt Exploration reported strong growth in 2025, with average annual production rising 22% to 40,397 BOE per day despite shut-ins linked to construction delays at a third-party gas plant in its Wembley/Pipestone core area. Fourth-quarter output climbed 24% year on year to 45,102 BOE per day, while oil and gas sales increased 10% to CA$513.1 million and net income jumped 39% to CA$63.1 million, even as realized commodity prices softened and operating netbacks were largely flat.

Cash provided by operating activities rose 26% to CA$264.3 million and adjusted funds from operations advanced 18%, underpinning modest balance sheet expansion and a three-year average return on capital employed of 9%. Capital spending for the year was essentially flat at about CA$328.3 million, and higher bank debt contributed to a 52% increase in net debt, highlighting that Kelt is funding production growth while maintaining sizable land holdings of roughly 600,000 net acres in its core operating regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEL) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kelt Exploration stock, see the TSE:KEL Stock Forecast page.

Kelt Exploration Sets $355 Million 2026 Budget to Drive 26% Production Growth

Kelt Exploration has set a 2026 capital expenditure budget of $355 million, allocating the bulk to drilling and completions across its core Montney-focused divisions, with additional spending on facilities, pipelines and land. Based on conservative commodity price assumptions, the company is targeting a 26% increase in average production to 50,000–52,000 BOE per day and a 27% rise in adjusted funds from operations to $355 million, while keeping year-end net debt flat at $170 million and maintaining a relatively conservative net debt-to-AFFO ratio of 0.5 times, underscoring its plan to grow output and cash flow without materially increasing leverage.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEL) stock is a Buy with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kelt Exploration stock, see the TSE:KEL Stock Forecast page.