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Cipher Pharmaceuticals (TSE:CPH)
TSX:CPH
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Cipher Pharmaceuticals (CPH) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CPH

Cipher Pharmaceuticals

(TSX:CPH)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$16.00
▲(10.73% Upside)
Cipher Pharmaceuticals' strong financial performance and record-breaking earnings call results are the most significant factors driving the stock score. However, technical analysis indicates bearish trends, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly valued. Challenges in maintaining profitability and operational efficiency, along with legal costs, slightly temper the overall positive outlook.

Cipher Pharmaceuticals (CPH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCipher Pharmaceuticals (CPH) is a Canadian specialty pharmaceutical company focused on acquiring, developing, and commercializing innovative prescription products. The company primarily operates in the therapeutic areas of dermatology and pain management, offering a range of products that address unmet medical needs. Cipher's core portfolio includes branded and generic prescription medications, as well as proprietary products designed to improve patient outcomes.
How the Company Makes MoneyCipher Pharmaceuticals generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its prescription products. The company earns income through the commercialization of its proprietary products, as well as through partnerships and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. By leveraging its expertise in product development and regulatory processes, Cipher often seeks to obtain exclusive rights to market certain drugs, thereby enhancing its revenue potential. Key revenue streams include sales from its marketed products, royalties from licensed products, and collaborative agreements that may involve milestone payments. Additionally, Cipher's strategic partnerships with other firms help expand its market reach and enhance its portfolio, contributing to its overall earnings.

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cipher Pharmaceuticals showcased strong financial performance in Q2 2025, driven by the successful acquisition and integration of the Natroba business, leading to record-breaking revenue and significant EBITDA growth. However, challenges in the U.S. licensing segment and onetime legal costs moderated the overall positive outcomes.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue
Cipher Pharmaceuticals' Q2 2025 yielded the highest earnings quarter for total net revenue in the company's history, primarily driven by the U.S. Natroba business.
U.S. Natroba Business Performance
The Natroba business generated $7.8 million in revenue in Q2 2025, leading to a strong gross margin of 86% and contributing significantly to the company's record earnings.
Growth in Canadian Product Portfolio
Canadian product portfolio revenue increased by 12% in Q2 2025 compared to the same quarter last year.
Total Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $7.6 million, a 148% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024.
Significant Debt Reduction
Cipher allocated $15 million to repay its revolving credit facility and utilized $2.1 million for share repurchases, further reducing its debt balance to $18 million.
State of Illinois Favorable Development
Natroba was made the preferred product for scabies treatment under Medicaid in Illinois, setting a precedent for potential similar approvals in other states.
Negative Updates
Decline in U.S. Licensing Revenue
U.S. licensing revenue decreased by 9% in Q2 2025, mainly due to lower royalty revenues resulting from lower sales volumes and increased generic competition.
Absorica Portfolio Challenges
The Absorica portfolio experienced a 56% decrease in licensing revenue for the 6 months ended June 30, 2025, due to lower sales volumes and reduced royalty rates.
Onetime Legal Costs Impact
Net income was adversely impacted by $1.2 million in onetime legal costs related to defending the product portfolio through a contractual arbitration process.
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2025 conference call, Cipher Pharmaceuticals reported a record-breaking quarter for net revenue, driven primarily by the U.S. Natroba business, which generated $7.8 million in revenue, contributing to a total of $13.4 million for the quarter—a 152% increase from the previous year. The gross profit from Natroba was $6.6 million, with a gross margin of 86%, excluding non-cash adjustments. The base business also performed well, with Canadian product revenue growing by 12% to $4.1 million and contributing to an overall adjusted EBITDA of $7.6 million for the quarter. The company highlighted its fourfold growth strategy for Natroba, including expanding in the U.S., adding complementary products, launching in Canada, and out-licensing globally. Additionally, Cipher executed a $15 million debt repayment and utilized $2.1 million for share repurchases, while maintaining $11.3 million in cash and $25 million in debt, positioning itself for further strategic growth opportunities.

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cipher Pharmaceuticals shows strong revenue growth and robust gross margins, indicating a solid position in the pharmaceuticals industry. However, declining net profit margins and ROE highlight challenges in maintaining profitability and operational efficiency. The balance sheet remains solid with manageable debt levels, but cash flow improvements are needed to sustain future growth.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Cipher Pharmaceuticals has shown a robust revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, increasing by 57.7%, which is a positive indicator of the company's market expansion and product demand. The gross profit margin is strong at 72.3% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. However, the absence of EBIT in 2024 could suggest increased operating expenses or write-offs. Net profit margin decreased significantly from 96.3% in 2023 to 34.6% in 2024, which raises concerns about profitability sustainability.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 in 2024, reflecting prudent leverage levels. Return on Equity (ROE) saw a notable decrease to 11.3% in 2024 from 25.3% in 2023, indicating reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is stable at 63.0%, showcasing a solid capital structure with a high proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow has improved, with a 22.2% increase from 2023 to 2024, supporting operational stability. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains impressive at 1.69 in 2024, indicating strong cash conversion. However, free cash flow growth is moderate at 22.1%, suggesting potential constraints in cash generation compared to previous years.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue47.59M33.36M21.16M20.68M21.94M21.61M
Gross Profit35.12M24.10M17.09M16.68M18.26M18.55M
EBITDA16.73M11.87M11.53M12.04M13.66M13.40M
Net Income12.14M11.54M20.38M26.64M7.76M4.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets152.39M162.51M86.03M73.78M51.65M44.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.34M17.84M39.83M28.84M20.55M9.14M
Total Debt25.45M40.58M353.00K428.00K516.00K1.85M
Total Liabilities42.96M60.17M5.51M9.70M12.75M11.63M
Stockholders Equity109.44M102.34M80.52M64.08M38.90M32.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow21.10M19.50M15.98M10.49M13.81M10.93M
Operating Cash Flow21.13M19.55M16.00M10.57M13.81M11.69M
Investing Cash Flow-80.03M-80.04M-144.00K-81.00K0.00-760.00K
Financing Cash Flow22.15M39.30M-5.24M-1.91M-2.47M-8.13M

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price14.45
Price Trends
50DMA
15.44
Negative
100DMA
14.19
Positive
200DMA
13.49
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.28
Positive
RSI
41.54
Neutral
STOCH
24.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CPH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.13, below the 50-day MA of 15.44, and above the 200-day MA of 13.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CPH.

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$378.88M22.6012.25%121.40%-47.34%
66
Neutral
C$319.69M80.331.86%38.86%
61
Neutral
5.24%-7.99%
59
Neutral
C$87.10M65.691.88%0.03%-17.30%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
C$175.14M-20.58%-1.42%35.15%
47
Neutral
$586.11M1,729.410.03%13.82%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CPH
Cipher Pharmaceuticals
14.45
-1.70
-10.53%
TSE:TH
Theratechnologies
4.47
2.76
161.40%
TSE:GUD
Knight Therapeutics
5.87
0.27
4.82%
TSE:MDP
Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc
2.85
0.26
10.04%
TSE:OGI
OrganiGram Holdings
2.41
-0.09
-3.60%
TSE:HLS
HLS Therapeutics Inc
5.61
1.77
46.09%

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Legal Proceedings
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Wins Arbitration Against Sun Pharmaceuticals
Positive
Oct 14, 2025

Cipher Pharmaceuticals has received a favorable arbitration award in a contractual dispute with Sun Pharmaceuticals over the launch of Absorica LD® in Canada and ownership of clinical data. The arbitrator ruled in Cipher’s favor, granting them CAD $4.24 million in damages, future royalties on sales, and reimbursement of legal fees. Sun is contesting the decision in court, but Cipher plans to defend the award and pursue further claims against Sun for using its clinical data in other regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPH) stock is a Buy with a C$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cipher Pharmaceuticals stock, see the TSE:CPH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Mourns the Loss of Esteemed Board Member Harold Wolkin
Negative
Aug 26, 2025

Cipher Pharmaceuticals announced the passing of Harold M. Wolkin, a valued member of its Board of Directors and Chairman of the Audit Committee. Mr. Wolkin significantly contributed to the company’s growth and governance, playing a crucial role in strategic initiatives and representing the company with integrity. His loss is deeply felt across the Canadian capital markets community and within the company, highlighting his impact on Cipher’s operations and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPH) stock is a Buy with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cipher Pharmaceuticals stock, see the TSE:CPH Stock Forecast page.

Cipher Pharmaceuticals’ Record Earnings Driven by Natroba
Aug 13, 2025

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Reports Record-Breaking Earnings Quarter

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Reports Record Q2 2025 Revenue
Aug 9, 2025

Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on dermatology, has reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing significant growth and record revenue. The company, known for acquiring and marketing products that address unmet medical needs, operates primarily in Canada, the U.S., and South America.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Cipher Pharmaceuticals Achieves Record Revenue in Q2 2025
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Cipher Pharmaceuticals reported record revenue of $13.4 million for Q2 2025, driven by strong performance in its U.S. business, particularly from Natroba. The company’s financial strategy includes significant debt repayment and share repurchases, positioning it well for future growth opportunities. The company’s growth is further supported by increased sales of Epuris in Canada and strategic positioning of Natroba in the U.S. market, including a preferred status on Illinois Medicaid.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPH) stock is a Buy with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cipher Pharmaceuticals stock, see the TSE:CPH Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Cipher Pharmaceuticals to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 29, 2025

Cipher Pharmaceuticals announced it will release its financial results for the second quarter of 2025 on August 7, followed by a conference call on August 8 to discuss the results and corporate developments. This announcement highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CPH) stock is a Buy with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cipher Pharmaceuticals stock, see the TSE:CPH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025