Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDP) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

62 Followers

Top Page

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc

(TSX:MDP)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:

C$3.00

▼(-3.54% Downside)

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with stable gross margins but declining revenue and cash flow. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, while valuation metrics indicate overvaluation. The earnings call provides cautious optimism with strategic progress, but challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Gross Margin Improvement

The overall gross margin is expected to increase materially, with Grafapex expected to have gross margins in the 80% range.

Market Share Growth

Canadian unit demand for Trecondyv grew 70% and the drug holds a significant market share in pediatric and adult alloHSCT markets in Canada.

Product Launch

Positive signs are seen in the launch of Grafapex.

Negative Factors

Product Discontinuation

Management has decided to no longer sell Gleolan in the U.S. as the product was not profitable.

Revenue Decline

Total revenues decreased 4.6% year-over-year, a decline expected due mainly to generic pressure on Rupall.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$91.94M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)42.94K

Price to Earnings (P/E)75.7

Beta (1Y)0.93

Revenue Growth0.03%

EPS Growth-17.30%

CountryCA

Employees82

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength47

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.03

Shares Outstanding32,258,354

10 Day Avg. Volume65,119

30 Day Avg. Volume42,942

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$5.75

Price Target Upside84.89% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMedexus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDP) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative and high-quality healthcare solutions for patients in North America. The company operates in the pharmaceuticals sector, providing a diverse portfolio of products across various therapeutic areas including autoimmune diseases, oncology, and pediatrics. Medexus is dedicated to addressing unmet medical needs and improving patient outcomes through its strategic product offerings and partnerships.

How the Company Makes MoneyMedexus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue streams are derived from direct sales to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies in North America. Medexus's business model also includes strategic partnerships and licensing agreements that expand its product portfolio and market reach. These partnerships often involve collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to co-promote or distribute products, thereby enhancing revenue potential. Additionally, Medexus may receive milestone and royalty payments from licensing arrangements, contributing to its overall earnings.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted the successful launch and positive early performance of GRAFAPEX, along with strategic achievements such as NTAP reimbursement approval and improved gross margins. However, these were balanced by challenges including declining revenues and adjusted EBITDA, increased expenses, and concerns about tariffs affecting costs. The overall sentiment is cautious optimism, with focus on future growth driven by GRAFAPEX.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Successful Launch of GRAFAPEX

GRAFAPEX generated $3 million in product-level net revenue in fiscal Q1 '26, with early adoption by major commercial payers and healthcare institutions. 36 of 180 transplant centers, representing 24% of total allo-HSCT procedures in the U.S., have ordered GRAFAPEX.

Positive NTAP Reimbursement for GRAFAPEX

Secured approval for NTAP reimbursement for GRAFAPEX from Medicare, providing up to $21,411 of additional reimbursement per eligible patient starting October 1, 2025.

Trecondyv Growth in Canada

Unit demand for Trecondyv grew 38% over the trailing 12-month period, with BC, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec executing listing agreements for reimbursement.

Gross Margin Improvement

Gross margin improved to 56.0% in fiscal Q1 '26 from 54.4% in the same period last year.

Debt Reduction

Net debt decreased to $12.6 million as of June 30, 2025, compared to $13.2 million as of March 31, 2025.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Total Net Revenue

Fiscal Q1 '26 revenue was $24.6 million, a decrease from $27.3 million in the same period last year.

Adjusted EBITDA Decline

Adjusted EBITDA was $3.4 million in fiscal Q1 '26, down from $6.1 million in the same period last year.

Rupall Revenue Erosion

Rupall revenues have decreased due to the loss of exclusivity in January 2025, with unit demand decreasing by 29% over the 6-month period ending June 30, 2025.

Increased SG&A Expenses

Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $12.2 million in Q1 '26 from $10.3 million in the same period last year.

Tariff Concerns

Anticipated 15% tariff on branded pharmaceutical products from the EU, including GRAFAPEX and Rasuvo, into the United States.

Company Guidance

During the Medexus Pharmaceuticals First Quarter 2026 conference call, the company provided detailed guidance on the financial metrics and strategic progress achieved. GRAFAPEX's commercial launch was highlighted, contributing $3 million to product-level net revenue in fiscal Q1 '26, with expectations to reach $3 million to $3.5 million in fiscal Q2 '26. GRAFAPEX has already been adopted by 36 transplant centers, representing 24% of allo-HSCT procedures in the U.S., and received Medicare's NTAP reimbursement approval, allowing eligible patients up to $21,411 in additional reimbursement starting October 1, 2025. Overall, the company reported fiscal Q1 '26 revenue of $24.6 million, down from $27.3 million the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA at $3.4 million, compared to $6.1 million last year. Despite a decrease in net income to $0.5 million from $2 million, Medexus remains optimistic, with GRAFAPEX expected to positively impact cash flows by fiscal Q3 '26. Meanwhile, the Canadian portfolio experienced changes due to the loss of Rupall's exclusivity, with revenues decreasing as expected. The company maintained a strong focus on strategic opportunities, including potential new products and debt refinancing, while navigating a 15% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals imported from the EU, impacting GRAFAPEX and Rasuvo.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Medexus Pharmaceuticals has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with better cost management reflected in improved gross and net profit margins. However, operational efficiency issues and high liabilities remain concerns.

Income Statement

Positive

Medexus Pharmaceuticals has shown strong revenue growth over the years, particularly from 2022 to 2024, with a slight dip in 2025. The Gross and Net Profit Margins have improved significantly, suggesting better cost management and increased profitability. However, fluctuations in EBIT margins highlight some operational efficiency issues.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has strengthened its equity position over the years, with a substantial increase in stockholders' equity from 2022 to 2025. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has decreased, indicating reduced leverage. However, high total liabilities still pose a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow has improved significantly, turning positive after periods of negative cash flow. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is robust, supporting financial flexibility. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows suggest ongoing capital adjustments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	105.66M	108.33M	113.05M	108.10M	76.70M	79.66M
Gross Profit	55.52M	56.58M	59.51M	60.04M	37.93M	42.01M
EBITDA	15.92M	16.81M	19.28M	16.14M	15.16M	-23.61M
Net Income	806.00K	2.25M	-214.00K	1.22M	-2.88M	-28.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	153.79M	171.84M	155.73M	161.33M	139.22M	148.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.33M	23.97M	5.25M	13.07M	10.02M	18.70M
Total Debt	21.89M	37.18M	49.90M	94.72M	54.86M	56.40M
Total Liabilities	100.83M	119.69M	125.41M	187.70M	151.82M	130.50M
Stockholders Equity	52.96M	52.14M	30.32M	22.45M	17.79M	18.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.94M	21.31M	18.45M	-1.81M	-8.89M	-5.72M
Operating Cash Flow	19.76M	24.03M	18.71M	-1.44M	-1.18M	5.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.87M	-6.00M	-3.48M	-1.72M	-8.20M	-11.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.00M	796.00K	-23.05M	6.41M	663.00K	18.68M

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price3.11

Price Trends

50DMA

2.92

Positive

100DMA

2.81

Positive

200DMA

2.93

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.04

Negative

RSI

61.35

Neutral

STOCH

74.68

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.82, above the 50-day MA of 2.92, and above the 200-day MA of 2.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MDP.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RX	78 Outperform	C$138.27M	16.57	22.62%	1.57%	16.82%	19.25%
MDP	60 Neutral	C$91.94M	75.67	1.88%	―	0.03%	-17.30%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.81B	-0.22	-40.01%	2.29%	21.48%	-2.11%
AQS	21 Underperform	C$663.17K	―	43.02%	―	192.96%	42.59%
WIB	―	C$1.96M	―		―	―	―
MPH	53 Neutral	C$12.00M	―	-7.15%	―	10.84%	48.57%
OGI	―	$221.50M	117.61	1.86%	―	―	―

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:MDP

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc

3.11

0.69

28.51%

TSE:AQS

Aequus Pharmaceuticals

0.01

-0.01

-50.00%

TSE:WIB

West Island Brands Inc

0.13

0.00

0.00%

TSE:MPH

Medicure

1.15

0.05

4.55%

TSE:RX

Biosyent

12.10

1.48

13.94%

OGI

OrganiGram Holdings

1.73

-0.11

-5.98%

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsFinancial Disclosures

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Reports Strong Q1 2026 Results Driven by GRAFAPEX Launch

Positive

Aug 12, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals reported fiscal Q1 2026 results with a net revenue of $24.6 million and a net income of $0.5 million. The company highlighted the positive market response to its new product, GRAFAPEX, which generated $3.0 million in net revenue and is expected to be accretive to cash flows by fiscal Q3 2026. Despite a decline in revenues from other products like Rupall due to generic competition, Medexus remains confident in GRAFAPEX’s potential to solidify its leadership in the allo-HSCT field, with significant formulary inclusions and orders from transplant centers.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDP) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc stock, see the TSE:MDP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Announces First Fiscal Quarter 2026 Conference Call

Neutral

Aug 5, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals has scheduled a conference call on August 13, 2025, to discuss its first fiscal quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2025. The company will also participate in upcoming industry conferences, reflecting its active engagement in commercialization activities and maintaining its market presence.

Product-Related Announcements

Medexus Pharmaceuticals’ GRAFAPEX™ Receives NTAP Approval for 2026

Positive

Aug 5, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals announced that GRAFAPEX™ (treosulfan) for Injection has received approval for New Technology Add-On Payment (NTAP) from the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for the fiscal year 2026. This approval marks a significant reimbursement milestone, allowing eligible procedures involving GRAFAPEX™ to receive additional reimbursement, thereby enhancing its accessibility to Medicare beneficiaries. Since its US commercial launch, GRAFAPEX™ has seen positive uptake, with several commercial payers and healthcare institutions including it in their formularies, indicating promising commercial potential.

Product-Related AnnouncementsFinancial Disclosures

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Reports Strong FY 2025 Results and Successful GRAFAPEX Launch

Positive

Jun 25, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals reported strong fiscal year 2025 results, highlighted by the successful U.S. launch of GRAFAPEX (treosulfan) following FDA approval. Despite a slight decrease in overall revenue, the company achieved record net income and Adjusted EBITDA, driven by financial discipline and strategic investments. The launch of GRAFAPEX has shown promising initial market uptake, with positive formulary inclusion from major payers and healthcare institutions, indicating significant future revenue potential. Medexus expects GRAFAPEX to contribute positively to cash flows by fiscal Q4 2026, enhancing its market position in the rare disease treatment segment.

Financial Disclosures

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Announces Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call

Neutral

Jun 17, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals has announced a conference call scheduled for June 26, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 25, 2025