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Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (TSE:MDP)
TSX:MDP
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Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDP) AI Stock Analysis

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Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc

(TSX:MDP)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$3.00
▲(6.76%Upside)
Medexus Pharmaceuticals' overall score reflects strong financial performance and positive corporate events, balanced by technical analysis indicating bearish momentum and moderate valuation metrics. The successful launch of GRAFAPEX and strategic achievements provide optimism, though challenges such as decreased revenue and market competition temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Market Growth
Canadian unit demand for Trecondyv grew 70% and the drug holds a significant market share in pediatric and adult alloHSCT markets in Canada.
Product Launch
Grafapex has shown early success in the U.S., with positive formulary inclusion from commercial payers and healthcare institutions.
Negative Factors
Generic Competition
Total revenues decreased 4.6% year-over-year, a decline expected due mainly to generic pressure on Rupall.
Profitability Issues
Management has decided to no longer sell Gleolan in the U.S. as the product was not profitable.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMedexus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDP) is a specialty pharmaceutical company operating primarily in North America. The company focuses on the acquisition, licensing, and distribution of innovative and high-value medications across various therapeutic areas including autoimmune diseases, hematology, and allergies. Medexus aims to address unmet medical needs by delivering products that improve patient outcomes and quality of life.
How the Company Makes MoneyMedexus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its pharmaceutical products to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies. The company's revenue model is based on distributing licensed and proprietary medications in key therapeutic areas. Medexus also engages in strategic partnerships and licensing agreements to expand its product portfolio and market reach. These partnerships enable Medexus to access new markets and increase its revenue potential by leveraging the established networks and expertise of its partners. Additionally, Medexus may earn milestone and royalty payments from licensing agreements, contributing to its overall earnings.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: -16.12%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. The successful launch and initial performance of GRAFAPEX, along with strong financial discipline and cash position, are significant positives. However, decreases in net revenue, negative net income for the quarter, and challenges like Rupall's generic competition present notable concerns. The focus on GRAFAPEX's strong launch suggests optimism, but is tempered by current declines in other areas.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Launch of GRAFAPEX
Medexus achieved $0.6 million of product level revenue for GRAFAPEX in fiscal Q4 '25 and preliminary estimates indicate over $2.5 million in fiscal Q1 '26, showing strong initial market uptake.
Strong Financial Discipline
Record adjusted EBITDA of $20.2 million and record net income of $2.2 million for fiscal year '25, primarily due to ongoing financial discipline.
Positive Market Response to Treosulfan
Treosulfan's market exclusivity in Canada led to a 70% growth in unit demand over the trailing 12-month period ending March 31, 2025.
Cash Position Improvement
Cash on hand increased to $24 million at March 31, 2025, compared to $5.3 million at March 31, 2024, due to a public offering and strong operating cash flow.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Fiscal year '25 adjusted EBITDA of $20.2 million, up from $19.5 million in fiscal year '24.
Negative Updates
Decreased Net Revenue
Fiscal Q4 net revenue was $24.8 million, a decrease from $26 million for the same period last year.
Negative Net Income for Fiscal Q4
Net income of negative $0.6 million for fiscal Q4, a decrease from positive $0.8 million for the same period last year.
Impact of GRAFAPEX Investments
Fiscal Q4 '25 adjusted EBITDA decreased to $2.3 million from $4.4 million in the same period last year, primarily due to $2.7 million of GRAFAPEX personnel and infrastructure investments.
Rupall Faces Generic Competition
Rupall's market exclusivity expired in January '25, leading to the beginning of generic competition.
Slight Decline in IXINITY Demand
IXINITY unit demand in the United States increased by only 1% over the trailing 12-month period ending March 31, '25, with expectations for stable or slightly decreasing demand.
Company Guidance
During the Medexus Pharmaceuticals Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year-End 2025 Conference Call, the company provided detailed financial guidance, emphasizing the successful commercialization of GRAFAPEX, the brand name for treosulfan, in the U.S. Medexus reported $0.6 million in product-level revenue for GRAFAPEX in fiscal Q4 '25 and over $2.5 million in fiscal Q1 '26, with expectations for it to be accretive to quarterly operating cash flows by fiscal Q4 '26. The company's fiscal Q4 net revenue was $24.8 million, down from $26 million the previous year, primarily due to $2.7 million in GRAFAPEX-related investments. Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal Q4 '25 was $2.3 million, a decrease from $4.4 million last year, but fiscal year '25 saw a record adjusted EBITDA of $20.2 million, up from $19.5 million in fiscal '24. The company also reported a net income of $2.2 million for fiscal year '25, a significant improvement from the negative $0.2 million in fiscal '24. Other product updates included a 70% growth in Trecondyv unit demand in Canada and a 1% increase for IXINITY in the U.S. Medexus outlined plans for GRAFAPEX's continued integration into healthcare facilities, with 34 of 180 transplant centers already ordering the product, and highlighted a strong market response with positive formulary inclusion from multiple commercial players.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Medexus Pharmaceuticals has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved profitability despite some operational efficiency issues. The company's strengthened equity position and reduced leverage are positives, though high total liabilities remain a concern.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Medexus Pharmaceuticals has shown strong revenue growth over the years, particularly from 2022 to 2024, with a slight dip in 2025. The Gross and Net Profit Margins have improved significantly, suggesting better cost management and increased profitability. However, fluctuations in EBIT margins highlight some operational efficiency issues.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company has strengthened its equity position over the years, with a substantial increase in stockholders' equity from 2022 to 2025. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has decreased, indicating reduced leverage. However, high total liabilities still pose a risk to financial stability.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Operating cash flow has improved significantly, turning positive after periods of negative cash flow. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is robust, supporting financial flexibility. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows suggest ongoing capital adjustments.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue108.33M113.05M108.10M76.70M79.66M
Gross Profit56.58M59.51M60.04M37.93M42.01M
EBITDA16.81M19.28M16.14M15.16M-23.61M
Net Income2.25M-214.00K1.22M-2.88M-28.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets171.84M155.73M161.33M139.22M148.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments23.97M5.25M13.07M10.02M18.70M
Total Debt37.18M49.90M94.72M54.86M56.40M
Total Liabilities119.69M125.41M187.70M151.82M130.50M
Stockholders Equity52.14M30.32M22.45M17.79M18.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow21.31M18.45M-1.81M-8.89M-5.72M
Operating Cash Flow24.03M18.71M-1.44M-1.18M5.04M
Investing Cash Flow-6.00M-3.48M-1.72M-8.20M-11.70M
Financing Cash Flow796.00K-23.05M6.41M663.00K18.68M

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.81
Price Trends
50DMA
2.94
Negative
100DMA
2.74
Positive
200DMA
2.88
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
41.16
Neutral
STOCH
15.90
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.06, below the 50-day MA of 2.94, and below the 200-day MA of 2.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MDP.

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSRX
80
Outperform
C$131.35M16.7322.17%1.75%16.55%14.70%
TSOGI
71
Outperform
$269.11M19.314.76%26.93%
TSMDP
68
Neutral
C$90.65M21.885.27%-1.14%
TSMPH
54
Neutral
C$11.58M-8.79%-0.29%-53.83%
52
Neutral
$7.34B-0.07-63.86%2.36%16.17%0.23%
TSAQS
21
Underperform
C$663.17K43.02%129.21%26.79%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MDP
Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc
2.81
0.60
27.15%
TSE:OGI
OrganiGram Holdings
2.01
-0.44
-17.96%
TSE:AQS
Aequus Pharmaceuticals
0.01
-0.02
-66.67%
TSE:RX
Biosyent
11.45
1.48
14.84%
TSE:MPH
Medicure
1.11
0.00
0.00%

Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsFinancial Disclosures
Medexus Pharmaceuticals Reports Strong FY 2025 Results and Successful GRAFAPEX Launch
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals reported strong fiscal year 2025 results, highlighted by the successful U.S. launch of GRAFAPEX (treosulfan) following FDA approval. Despite a slight decrease in overall revenue, the company achieved record net income and Adjusted EBITDA, driven by financial discipline and strategic investments. The launch of GRAFAPEX has shown promising initial market uptake, with positive formulary inclusion from major payers and healthcare institutions, indicating significant future revenue potential. Medexus expects GRAFAPEX to contribute positively to cash flows by fiscal Q4 2026, enhancing its market position in the rare disease treatment segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDP) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc stock, see the TSE:MDP Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Medexus Pharmaceuticals Announces Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call
Neutral
Jun 17, 2025

Medexus Pharmaceuticals has announced a conference call scheduled for June 26, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDP) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc stock, see the TSE:MDP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 16, 2025