Computer Modelling J (TSE:CMG)
TSX:CMG
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Computer Modelling
(TSX:CMG)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$4.50
▲(10.57% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (high margins and improving leverage) but is held back by a meaningful deterioration in recent fundamentals (slightly negative TTM revenue and sharply lower free cash flow) and a strongly bearish technical setup with the stock trading well below key moving averages and weak momentum indicators. Valuation is moderately supportive with a reasonable P/E and ~3% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High software margins
CMG’s TTM gross (~79%) and net (~16%) margins reflect a scalable software licensing model with low incremental costs and recurring maintenance. High structural margins support durable profitability, funding R&D and services even if top-line growth is uneven in the cyclical energy end market.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline
After multiple years of expansion, TTM revenue dipped ~2.4%, signaling weakening demand from oil and gas customers who drive license and services spend. Continued top-line softness limits scale economics, constrains seat expansions and services growth, and pressures long-term organic growth potential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High software margins
CMG’s TTM gross (~79%) and net (~16%) margins reflect a scalable software licensing model with low incremental costs and recurring maintenance. High structural margins support durable profitability, funding R&D and services even if top-line growth is uneven in the cyclical energy end market.
Read all positive factors
Computer Modelling (CMG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$323.80M
Dividend Yield2.32%
Average Volume (3M)246.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.2
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth-1.45%
EPS Growth-31.28%
CountryCA
Employees320
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding80,149,000
10 Day Avg. Volume239,715
30 Day Avg. Volume246,827
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.12
Price to Book (P/B)12.11
Price to Sales (P/S)7.56
P/FCF Ratio23.18
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$5.75Price Target Upside41.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$129.96M
Computer Modelling Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Computer Modelling Group Ltd., a computer software technology company, develops and licenses reservoir simulation software in Canada and internationally. The company offers CMOST-AI, an intelligent optimization and analysis tool that offers soluti...
How the Company Makes Money
CMG primarily makes money by licensing its reservoir simulation and modelling software to customers, typically oil and gas companies and related engineering/technical organizations. Revenue is generated through software license arrangements (inclu...
Computer Modelling Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 126.20M | 129.45M | 73.85M | 66.20M | 67.36M | 75.79M |
| Gross Profit | 99.63M | 104.51M | 56.69M | 49.92M | 51.67M | 57.66M |
| EBITDA | 35.06M | 43.24M | 29.51M | 30.22M | 34.84M | 36.11M |
| Net Income | 17.09M | 22.44M | 19.80M | 18.41M | 20.19M | 23.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 192.40M | 204.76M | 137.13M | 125.15M | 122.49M | 120.87M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.74M | 43.88M | 66.85M | 59.66M | 49.07M | 40.51M |
| Total Debt | 39.36M | 38.58M | 37.98M | 39.59M | 40.96M | 42.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 105.06M | 118.85M | 84.68M | 78.43M | 79.07M | 82.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 87.33M | 85.91M | 52.45M | 46.72M | 43.42M | 38.37M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.42M | 28.50M | 23.83M | 28.01M | 26.03M | 19.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.43M | 29.92M | 25.88M | 28.71M | 26.43M | 20.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.80M | -37.96M | -2.05M | -703.00K | -397.00K | -990.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.31M | -13.67M | -16.64M | -17.42M | -17.47M | -33.33M |
Computer Modelling Technical Analysis
Negative
4.07
Price Trends
4.08
Negative
4.59
Negative
5.45
Negative
Market Momentum
0.01
Negative
47.97
Neutral
18.59
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.06, below the 50-day MA of 4.08, and below the 200-day MA of 5.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CMG.
Computer Modelling Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$509.35M | 55.29 | 8.57% | 1.07% | 9.33% | 98.43% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | C$323.80M | 18.15 | 19.68% | 2.32% | -1.45% | -31.28% | |
60 Neutral | C$161.77M | 52.17 | 32.17% | ― | 20.62% | 21.78% | |
52 Neutral | C$151.60M | -12.40 | -38.48% | ― | -38.88% | -320.94% | |
45 Neutral | C$61.56M | -40.30 | -88.28% | ― | 7.84% | 30.83% |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:CMG
Computer Modelling
4.04
-3.75
-48.11%
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Computer Modelling Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
CMG Buys Rose Subsurface Assessment to Deepen Subsurface Risk Capabilities
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
Computer Modelling Group has acquired Rose Subsurface Assessment, a leading provider of probabilistic subsurface risk analysis and resource assessment software, training, consulting and operator consortium services for the global exploration and p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Computer Modelling Group Hit by Organic Revenue Slide but Pins Hopes on Acquisitions and Recurring Growth
Negative
Feb 10, 2026
Computer Modelling Group reported a 9% drop in third-quarter revenue to $32.7 million, driven by a 17% organic decline partly offset by 8% growth from acquisitions. Recurring revenue fell 4%, adjusted EBITDA slid 30% with margin compressing to 30%...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Computer Modelling Group Adds Veteran Dealmaker Christopher Wright to Board
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. has appointed Christopher Wright to its board of directors, adding a veteran of global investment, board governance, and growth strategy to its leadership. The Calgary-based energy software specialist aims to leverage...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.