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Cargojet Inc (TSE:CJT)
TSX:CJT
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Cargojet (CJT) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CJT

Cargojet

(TSX:CJT)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$103.00
▲(11.23% Upside)
Cargojet's overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting growth and strategic partnerships. However, technical analysis indicates bearish trends, and financial management challenges persist, impacting the score.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors

Cargojet (CJT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cargojet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCargojet Inc. provides time sensitive overnight air cargo services in Canada. Its air cargo business activities include operation of domestic air cargo network services between fourteen cities in North America; and provision of dedicated aircraft to customers on an aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance (ACMI) basis operating between points in Canada, North and South America, and Europe. The company also operates scheduled international routes for various cargo customers between the United States and Bermuda; and between Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In addition, it offers aircraft to customers on an adhoc charter basis operating between points in Canada, the United States, and other international destinations; and specialty charter services for livestock shipments, military equipment movements, emergency relief supplies, and virtually large shipments across North America, South America, the Caribbean, and Europe. Further, the company is involved in the flight planning and dispatch, crew planning and training, ground handling, and commercial airline cargo management businesses. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 31 aircraft. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCargojet generates revenue primarily through its air cargo services, which include scheduled overnight deliveries and charter services. The company operates a hub-and-spoke network that allows for efficient distribution of goods, enabling it to charge premium rates for time-sensitive shipments. Key revenue streams include service contracts with major clients, such as Canada Post, which represents a significant portion of its business, as well as contracts with other businesses needing reliable air freight services. Additionally, Cargojet benefits from partnerships with various logistics and transportation companies, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach. The company's ability to adapt to evolving market demands, such as increased e-commerce, also contributes to its revenue growth.

Cargojet Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant positive achievements, including strong domestic growth, strategic contract renewals, and improved EBITDA margins. However, challenges such as a decline in block hours and a cash flow shortfall were also noted. Overall, the sentiment is positive as the highlights, particularly the long-term contracts and strategic fleet management, outweigh the lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Domestic Business Growth
The domestic network posted a 14% year-over-year growth in Q2, driven by strong e-commerce demand in Canada.
Charter Business Expansion
The Charter business posted a 22% growth, demonstrating the stickiness and potential of new trade lanes in Canada.
Amazon and DHL Contract Renewals
Amazon renewed its air transportation services agreement for four years with options for two additional years, potentially extending to 2031. DHL extended its strategic partnership until 2033, with options until 2037.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement
Achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.7%, a sequential improvement of 140 basis points from the first quarter of the year.
Fleet Streamlining and Efficiency
Acquired four aircraft and streamlined the fleet by selling two older aircraft, expecting $170 million in cash inflow from sales and leasebacks.
Negative Updates
Block Hours Decline
A 10% drop in block hours flown in Q2 compared to the previous year, reflecting some operational challenges.
European ACMI Route Weakness
Some weakness observed in European ACMI routes post-Liberation Day, though optimism remains due to new agreements.
Free Cash Flow Shortfall
Reported a net year-to-date free cash flow outflow of $118.4 million due to timing differences in cash inflows and outflows.
Company Guidance
During the Cargojet Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several financial and operational metrics. The domestic business showed resilience with a 14% year-over-year growth in Q2, despite global uncertainties. The Charter business posted a 22% growth, indicating strong demand in this segment. The company plans to streamline its fleet by acquiring four aircraft, resulting in a net addition of one 767-300 aircraft after selling two older aircraft and returning one leased aircraft. This fleet adjustment aims to enhance operational reliability. Cargojet reported a net year-to-date free cash flow outflow of $118.4 million, which it expects to offset by Q3 2025 through operational cash generation and asset sales, aiming to return to an adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio range of 1.5x to 2.5x. The company also noted a strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.7%, with a sequential improvement of 140 basis points from Q1, attributed to sustainable cost efficiencies. Additionally, Cargojet highlighted long-term agreements with major clients like DHL and Amazon, extending relationships to 2033 and 2031, respectively, showcasing confidence in future growth and operational stability.

Cargojet Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cargojet exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with good profitability margins. However, the increasing leverage and negative free cash flow pose potential risks. The company should focus on managing debt levels and improving free cash flow to support long-term financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Cargojet has demonstrated a consistent increase in revenue over recent years, with a notable growth rate from 2023 to 2024 and into the TTM period. Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin are solid, indicating profitability, although there was a decline in gross profit compared to 2022. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the net income has experienced some fluctuations, highlighting a potential area of risk.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a steady increase in stockholders' equity, contributing to a reasonable equity ratio. However, the Debt-to-Equity Ratio has increased, indicating rising leverage which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The Return on Equity is strong, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits, but the increase in total debt is a concern that may affect future stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow remains robust, but there is negative free cash flow in the TTM period due to high capital expenditures, limiting liquidity. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is strong, suggesting that net income is well-supported by cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into free cash flow, which could impact financial flexibility moving forward.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.02B1.00B877.50M979.90M757.80M668.50M
Gross Profit233.00M225.80M136.10M247.50M230.90M250.50M
EBITDA349.90M383.70M329.50M397.80M348.10M95.30M
Net Income123.90M108.40M37.30M190.60M167.40M-87.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.99B1.93B2.04B1.99B1.49B1.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.40M1.50M31.80M6.10M94.70M3.70M
Total Debt840.40M755.10M799.20M707.00M398.60M572.80M
Total Liabilities1.21B1.19B1.25B1.15B813.40M1.05B
Stockholders Equity780.30M737.70M784.50M831.50M676.40M175.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-35.90M78.60M-73.90M-328.70M-32.60M146.00M
Operating Cash Flow313.10M328.60M192.80M282.50M245.00M292.60M
Investing Cash Flow-341.80M-142.70M-127.50M-615.10M-280.40M-127.70M
Financing Cash Flow16.20M-216.20M-39.60M244.00M126.40M-162.80M

Cargojet Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price92.60
Price Trends
50DMA
100.20
Negative
100DMA
97.76
Negative
200DMA
97.90
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.34
Positive
RSI
32.16
Neutral
STOCH
21.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.73, below the 50-day MA of 100.20, and below the 200-day MA of 97.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CJT.

Cargojet Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
C$1.22B12.189.88%6.01%5.52%-18.01%
74
Outperform
C$3.75B27.089.07%3.75%6.87%8.42%
72
Outperform
C$566.39M16.483.98%-5.62%88.69%
65
Neutral
$1.44B10.0519.73%1.51%14.37%
64
Neutral
C$2.09B30.9915.35%0.88%0.34%10.40%
61
Neutral
C$5.27B4.3082.54%0.33%-15.99%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CJT
Cargojet
92.60
-43.52
-31.97%
ACDVF
Air Canada
12.77
0.64
5.28%
TSE:EIF
Exchange Income
72.46
23.17
47.01%
TSE:DXT
Dexterra Group
9.10
2.45
36.84%
TSE:MTL
Mullen Group
13.97
0.50
3.71%
ANDHF
Andlauer Healthcare Group
38.22
9.71
34.06%

Cargojet Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Cargojet to Redeem 5.25% Senior Debentures Early
Positive
Aug 27, 2025

Cargojet Inc. announced its plan to redeem all outstanding 5.25% senior unsecured hybrid debentures on October 9, 2025, ahead of their original maturity date in 2026. This strategic financial move will be funded by proceeds from a recent offering of 4.599% senior unsecured notes, potentially enhancing Cargojet’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Cargojet Retains ISO 9001:2015 Certification for 23rd Year
Positive
Aug 18, 2025

Cargojet has successfully retained its ISO 9001:2015 Quality Standard Accreditation for the twenty-third consecutive year, reinforcing its commitment to high-quality, safe, and reliable service. This achievement highlights the dedication of Cargojet’s team and the effectiveness of its quality management systems, solidifying its position as the only air cargo carrier in Canada with this consistent certification.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Hold with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 25, 2025