Cargojet (CJT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.36B
• Dividend Yield: 1.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 186.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 7.71%
• EPS Growth: 3170.43%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,935
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 15,087,771
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 203,078
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 186,501
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$109.88
• Price Target Upside: 22.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$94.00 ▲(4.39% Upside)

Cargojet's overall stock score reflects a moderate financial performance with strengths in profitability but weaknesses in revenue growth and cash flow management. The technical analysis indicates mixed signals, while the valuation suggests the stock is undervalued. The earnings call provided positive insights into domestic growth and strategic initiatives, but global trade uncertainties pose challenges.

Positive Factors

Domestic network growth

Sustained domestic volume growth driven by e-commerce and inflation-linked pricing strengthens Cargojet's core revenue base. Over months this supports higher fleet utilization, more predictable scheduled revenue, and reduces exposure to volatile international routes, improving long-term resilience.

High, stable EBITDA margins

Consistently strong adjusted EBITDA margins reflect durable operating leverage, disciplined cost control, and pricing power in time-sensitive cargo. Sustained margin performance underpins cash available for reinvestment, debt servicing, and fleet maintenance even if top-line growth moderates.

Debt refinancing reduced cost and extended maturities

Lowering interest expense and extending maturities materially reduces near-term refinancing risk and improves interest cost structure. This structural improvement enhances financial flexibility to fund fleet strategy and absorb industry cyclicality without immediate cash strain.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Elevated leverage constrains strategic optionality and raises sensitivity to rate moves or revenue shocks. Higher debt levels increase fixed costs and refinancing risk over the medium term, limiting capacity to invest in growth or absorb prolonged downturns without additional external financing.

Negative free cash flow

Persistent negative free cash flow undermines the company's ability to organically fund fleet maintenance, growth initiatives, and debt repayments. Over months this forces reliance on external funding or asset moves, increasing financial risk and potentially diluting returns to equity holders.

ACMI and charter revenue declines from trade shifts

Structural shifts in global trade and route realignments are reducing higher-margin ACMI and charter demand. Loss of these international revenues lowers business diversification and fleet utilization, making long-term top-line growth more dependent on domestic volumes and exposing margins to corridor volatility.

Cargojet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cargojet Inc. provides time sensitive overnight air cargo services in Canada. Its air cargo business activities include operation of domestic air cargo network services between fourteen cities in North America; and provision of dedicated aircraft to customers on an aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance (ACMI) basis operating between points in Canada, North and South America, and Europe. The company also operates scheduled international routes for various cargo customers between the United States and Bermuda; and between Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In addition, it offers aircraft to customers on an adhoc charter basis operating between points in Canada, the United States, and other international destinations; and specialty charter services for livestock shipments, military equipment movements, emergency relief supplies, and virtually large shipments across North America, South America, the Caribbean, and Europe. Further, the company is involved in the flight planning and dispatch, crew planning and training, ground handling, and commercial airline cargo management businesses. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 31 aircraft. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cargojet generates revenue primarily through its air cargo services, which include overnight express delivery and charter services. The company's revenue model is built on long-term contracts with major clients, including e-commerce giants and retailers, which provide a stable income stream. Key revenue streams include scheduled cargo flights, charter services for specific customer needs, and dedicated fleet services for businesses requiring consistent transportation solutions. Additionally, partnerships with logistics companies and freight forwarders enhance Cargojet's service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also benefits from seasonal demand spikes, particularly during peak shopping periods, which further bolsters its financial performance.

Cargojet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cargojet shows robust revenue growth and profitability, supported by solid operating cash flows. However, the increasing debt levels and negative free cash flow in the TTM period highlight areas for improvement in financial management. The company needs to focus on maintaining its growth trajectory while managing leverage and cash flow effectively.

Income Statement

Cargojet has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with a 72.6% increase. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a TTM net profit margin of 12.15% and an EBIT margin of 19.90%. However, there has been some fluctuation in margins over the years, indicating potential volatility in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.08 in the TTM, reflecting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is solid at 16.88%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the increasing debt levels over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.80. However, the negative free cash flow in the TTM period is a concern, despite a significant growth rate of 203.34%. This suggests potential challenges in cash management and capital expenditure.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	1.00B	877.50M	979.90M	757.80M	668.50M
Gross Profit	205.00M	225.80M	138.10M	247.50M	232.40M	250.50M
EBITDA	287.00M	274.60M	219.80M	292.30M	270.00M	228.00M
Net Income	124.80M	108.40M	37.30M	190.60M	167.40M	-87.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.09B	1.93B	2.04B	1.99B	1.49B	1.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.70M	1.50M	31.80M	6.10M	94.70M	3.70M
Total Debt	957.00M	755.10M	799.20M	707.00M	398.60M	572.80M
Total Liabilities	1.35B	1.19B	1.25B	1.15B	813.40M	1.05B
Stockholders Equity	735.50M	737.70M	784.50M	831.50M	676.40M	175.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-108.30M	78.60M	-73.90M	-328.70M	-32.60M	146.00M
Operating Cash Flow	308.50M	328.60M	192.80M	282.50M	245.00M	292.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-447.00M	-142.70M	-127.50M	-615.10M	-280.40M	-127.70M
Financing Cash Flow	135.50M	-216.20M	-39.60M	244.00M	126.40M	-162.80M

Cargojet Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 90.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 90.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.33, above the 50-day MA of 78.87, and above the 200-day MA of 88.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CJT.

Cargojet Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNR	77 Outperform	C$84.75B	18.70	22.24%	2.62%	0.23%	-13.22%
MTL	74 Outperform	C$1.56B	14.97	9.33%	5.21%	5.53%	-21.87%
CJT	67 Neutral	C$1.36B	11.38	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%
TFII	67 Neutral	C$12.71B	28.70	11.98%	1.75%	-0.25%	-28.71%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AC	47 Neutral	C$5.75B	-29.63	-10.66%	―	-0.09%	-109.21%
FLT	45 Neutral	$427.64M	-20.40	-45.72%	―	378.71%	27.52%

Cargojet Corporate Events

Cargojet Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.35 Per Share

Cargojet Inc. has announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per common and variable voting share for the period from October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025. The dividend reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value and underscores its strong financial position in the air cargo industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Hold with a C$82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Announces Retirement of Co-CEO Jamie B. Porteous

Cargojet announced the retirement of Co-CEO and Founding Member Jamie B. Porteous, effective December 31, 2025. Jamie, who has been pivotal in transforming Cargojet into a premier air cargo carrier, will remain as a Strategic Advisor until the end of 2026 to ensure a smooth transition. His leadership has been instrumental in building strong customer partnerships and fostering a culture of service excellence. The company acknowledges his significant contributions and looks forward to his continued guidance in his advisory role.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Appoints Pauline Dhillon as New CEO to Lead Global Expansion

Cargojet has announced that Pauline Dhillon will become the Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026. Dhillon, who has been with the company since its inception, has played a pivotal role in its growth and development. Her leadership is expected to drive Cargojet’s expansion into European and Asian markets, leveraging its strong business model and customer relationships to tap into high-growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Reports Strong Domestic Growth Amidst Macroeconomic Challenges

Cargojet Inc. reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing a strong performance in its domestic network with a 6% increase in revenue year-over-year, despite facing macroeconomic challenges that affected its ACMI and Charter services. The company achieved a robust EBITDA margin of 32% and a significant increase in free cash flow, demonstrating effective cost and capital management. However, total revenues decreased by 10.5%, and net earnings fell by 70.4%, primarily due to declines in ACMI and Charter revenues.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Expands Direct Air Cargo Service to Europe

Cargojet Inc. is expanding its operations by launching a direct air cargo service connecting Canada with Europe, starting November 1, 2025. This new service will enhance Cargojet’s global network by linking Liege Airport, a key European cargo hub, with Canada’s major cargo centers. The initiative aims to strengthen transatlantic trade, offering faster transit times and greater flexibility for shippers, and is part of Cargojet’s long-term expansion strategy to solidify its position in the global logistics market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Renews IATA Operational Safety Registration

Cargojet Inc. has successfully renewed its International Air Transport Association (IATA) Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) registration, underscoring its commitment to maintaining high safety and compliance standards. This achievement reinforces Cargojet’s reputation for operational excellence and reliability in the air cargo industry, highlighting the dedication of its team to uphold these standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.