Cargojet (CJT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.33B
• Dividend Yield: 1.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 186.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: 7.71%
• EPS Growth: 3170.43%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,935
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.47
• Shares Outstanding: 15,087,771
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 203,078
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 186,501
• PEG Ratio: -0.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.29
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$117.67
• Price Target Upside: 33.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.96
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$986.80M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: C$103.00 ▲(16.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is primarily held back by financial pressure from higher leverage and volatile (often negative) free cash flow alongside reduced net profitability versus peak years. Offsetting this are resilient operating margins and positive operating cash generation, a constructive longer-term technical trend, and a reasonable valuation; the earnings call adds support via domestic growth and refinancing, but is balanced by continued ACMI/charter headwinds and trade uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Domestic Network Growth

Sustained domestic volume growth driven by e-commerce and inflation-linked pricing increases strengthens route density and recurring contracted demand. That improves aircraft utilization and revenue visibility over the medium term, supporting durable cash generation and margin resilience.

Robust Operating Margins & Cash Generation

Consistently strong EBITDA margins and positive operating cash flow indicate structural pricing power and disciplined cost management in core overnight and scheduled services. This operational strength underpins earnings quality and funds operations even when free cash flow is lumpy, providing long-term resilience.

Debt Refinancing Reduced Interest Costs

Lowering coupon and extending maturities materially reduces interest expense and near-term refinancing risk. That structural improvement in the capital structure increases free cash available for operations or capex and enhances solvency headroom versus prior funding terms.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

A materially higher debt-to-equity ratio signals heavier reliance on borrowing and larger fixed obligations, making the company more sensitive to demand shocks and interest-rate moves. Elevated leverage constrains capital allocation, increases bankruptcy risk in severe downturns, and limits strategic flexibility.

Volatile Free Cash Flow

Repeated negative or lumpy free cash flow reflects heavy reinvestment and timing of capex/working capital. Combined with higher leverage, volatile FCF reduces ability to de-lever, fund growth, or return capital, increasing dependency on external financing in adverse conditions.

ACMI and Charter Revenue Weakness

Declines in ACMI and charter volumes due to transatlantic/transpacific trade disruptions reduce revenue diversification and depress fleet utilization. Structural shifts in trade corridors can persist, leaving revenue and margin exposure concentrated on domestic corridors and making recovery dependent on external trade patterns.

Cargojet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cargojet Inc. provides time sensitive overnight air cargo services in Canada. Its air cargo business activities include operation of domestic air cargo network services between fourteen cities in North America; and provision of dedicated aircraft to customers on an aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance (ACMI) basis operating between points in Canada, North and South America, and Europe. The company also operates scheduled international routes for various cargo customers between the United States and Bermuda; and between Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In addition, it offers aircraft to customers on an adhoc charter basis operating between points in Canada, the United States, and other international destinations; and specialty charter services for livestock shipments, military equipment movements, emergency relief supplies, and virtually large shipments across North America, South America, the Caribbean, and Europe. Further, the company is involved in the flight planning and dispatch, crew planning and training, ground handling, and commercial airline cargo management businesses. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 31 aircraft. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cargojet generates revenue primarily through its air cargo services, which include overnight express delivery and charter services. The company's revenue model is built on long-term contracts with major clients, including e-commerce giants and retailers, which provide a stable income stream. Key revenue streams include scheduled cargo flights, charter services for specific customer needs, and dedicated fleet services for businesses requiring consistent transportation solutions. Additionally, partnerships with logistics companies and freight forwarders enhance Cargojet's service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also benefits from seasonal demand spikes, particularly during peak shopping periods, which further bolsters its financial performance.

Cargojet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance remains resilient with strong EBITDA margins and consistently positive operating cash flow, but the overall profile is pressured by a step-down in net profitability from prior peaks, higher leverage (debt-to-equity rising materially), and volatile/often negative free cash flow that reduces flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid on an operating basis, with EBITDA margins staying strong (roughly high-20s to low-30s in recent years), but overall earnings power has cooled from the 2021–2022 peak. Net profit margin fell meaningfully from ~19–22% (2021–2022) to ~4% in 2023 and ~8–11% in 2024–2025, alongside weaker gross margin versus prior highs. Revenue has been volatile, with a decline in 2023, a rebound in 2024, and a roughly flat-to-slightly down level in 2025—suggesting uneven demand and/or pricing pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased and is now a key constraint: debt-to-equity has moved from ~0.59 (2021) to ~1.55 (2025), indicating a heavier reliance on borrowing. Equity has grown versus 2020’s low base, but the capital structure has become more debt-heavy as total debt expanded materially. Returns on equity improved sharply after 2020, but have moderated to ~11% in 2025 from mid-teens in 2024 and higher levels in 2021–2022, reflecting lower net income and higher leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and generally covers accounting earnings (about ~1.0x–1.9x in most years), which supports earnings quality. However, free cash flow is volatile and often negative (notably 2021–2023 and again 2025), pointing to heavy reinvestment needs and/or lumpy capital spending. The swing from positive free cash flow in 2024 to negative in 2025 is a clear weakness and reduces financial flexibility given the higher debt load.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	992.70M	1.00B	877.50M	979.90M	757.80M
Gross Profit	197.10M	225.80M	138.10M	247.50M	232.40M
EBITDA	299.70M	274.60M	219.80M	292.30M	270.00M
Net Income	80.20M	108.40M	37.30M	190.60M	167.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.13B	1.93B	2.04B	1.99B	1.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.70M	1.50M	31.80M	6.10M	94.70M
Total Debt	1.15B	755.10M	799.20M	707.00M	398.60M
Total Liabilities	1.39B	1.19B	1.25B	1.15B	813.40M
Stockholders Equity	742.40M	737.70M	784.50M	831.50M	676.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-101.50M	78.60M	-73.90M	-328.70M	-32.60M
Operating Cash Flow	234.60M	328.60M	192.80M	282.50M	245.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-349.60M	-142.70M	-127.50M	-615.10M	-280.40M
Financing Cash Flow	120.20M	-216.20M	-39.60M	244.00M	126.40M

Cargojet Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 88.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.73, below the 50-day MA of 92.31, and below the 200-day MA of 91.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CJT.

Cargojet Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNR	77 Outperform	C$89.65B	16.73	21.95%	2.62%	0.23%	-13.22%
TFII	65 Neutral	C$12.37B	27.16	11.65%	1.75%	-0.25%	-28.71%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MTL	61 Neutral	C$1.64B	24.51	9.33%	5.21%	5.53%	-21.87%
CJT	59 Neutral	C$1.33B	16.01	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%
AC	58 Neutral	C$5.22B	4.82	-10.66%	―	-0.09%	-109.21%
FLT	45 Neutral	C$512.69M	-18.74	-45.72%	―	378.71%	27.52%

Cargojet Corporate Events

Cargojet Lifts Margins on Domestic Strength Despite Revenue and Profit Declines

Cargojet reported fourth-quarter 2025 results highlighting a 3.6% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $95.0 million and a 210-basis-point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin to 33.4%, driven by lower direct and SG&A costs despite softer revenue. Total revenue slipped 2.9% to $284.7 million as strong 16.9% domestic revenue growth was more than offset by declines in ACMI and charter revenue tied to macroeconomic pressures.

Net earnings fell 62.6% to $26.6 million on sharply higher finance costs and other items, while free cash flow remained negative at $9.8 million, though improved versus the prior-year outflow. Management emphasized operational resilience, including 99% on-time performance during a difficult winter and a continued focus on profitable growth, asset utilization and cost discipline aimed at preserving reliability for customers and supporting long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Lifts Quarterly Dividend by 10% as Management Signals Confidence

Cargojet Inc. has raised its quarterly cash dividend to $0.385 per common and variable voting share for the period from January 1 to March 31, 2026, marking a 10% increase from the previous quarter. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, will be paid on or before April 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 20, 2026.

Management framed the higher payout as a signal of the company’s operational resilience and confidence in its performance, while reinforcing a strategy of disciplined capital allocation. The move underscores Cargojet’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders, potentially enhancing its appeal to income-focused investors in the air cargo and transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter Results and Investor Call

Cargojet Inc. will release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 24, 2026, after markets close, followed by a management-hosted conference call on February 25 to discuss the performance. The planned call, led by CEO Pauline Dhillon, CFO Aaron McKay and VP of Finance Sanjeev Maini, underscores the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and analysts as it navigates the competitive air cargo market, offering stakeholders a key opportunity to assess recent operating trends and financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$143.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.