Cargojet (CJT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.40B
• Dividend Yield: 1.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 186.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.63
• Revenue Growth: 7.71%
• EPS Growth: 3170.43%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,935
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 15,087,771
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 203,078
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 186,501
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$111.71
• Price Target Upside: 18.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$102.00 ▲(8.52% Upside)

Cargojet's overall stock score reflects a moderate financial performance with strengths in profitability but weaknesses in revenue growth and cash flow management. The technical analysis indicates mixed signals, while the valuation suggests the stock is undervalued. The earnings call provided positive insights into domestic growth and strategic initiatives, but global trade uncertainties pose challenges.

Positive Factors

Strong domestic network growth driven by e-commerce

Sustained domestic volume expansion from e-commerce increases route density and aircraft utilization, strengthening core revenue durability. Higher utilization supports fixed-cost absorption, improves pricing leverage, and underpins stable contract renewals and route economics over the medium term.

Healthy adjusted EBITDA margins (~32%)

Consistently high adjusted EBITDA margins indicate strong operational efficiency and pricing power in time-sensitive air cargo. Durable margin levels provide internal funding capacity for maintenance and selective growth, and create a cushion against cyclical volume dips, aiding multi-quarter planning.

Debt refinancing extended maturities and cut coupon

Lowering interest cost and extending maturities reduces near-term refinancing risk and interest expense, improving cash flow headroom. This structural improvement enhances balance sheet flexibility to finance fleet needs or weather demand volatility without immediate capital market dependence.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage (debt-to-equity 1.31 TTM)

Elevated leverage amplifies financial risk and reduces strategic optionality, especially if volumes or yields weaken. Higher debt loads increase sensitivity to interest cost and limit capacity for opportunistic investments or fleet upgrades, making capital structure management a multi-quarter priority.

Negative free cash flow TTM

Negative free cash flow undermines the company's ability to self-fund maintenance, lease obligations, and growth capex. Reliance on external financing or slower reinvestment can weaken service capacity or increase financing costs, constraining durable operational resilience over coming quarters.

Declines in ACMI and charter revenues from trade shifts

Structural shifts in global trade corridors reduce revenue diversity and depress ACMI/charter utilization, making earnings more dependent on domestic e-commerce. This concentration risks lower top-line growth and slower recovery in international services until trade flows normalize or new contract demand emerges.

Cargojet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cargojet Inc. provides time sensitive overnight air cargo services in Canada. Its air cargo business activities include operation of domestic air cargo network services between fourteen cities in North America; and provision of dedicated aircraft to customers on an aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance (ACMI) basis operating between points in Canada, North and South America, and Europe. The company also operates scheduled international routes for various cargo customers between the United States and Bermuda; and between Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In addition, it offers aircraft to customers on an adhoc charter basis operating between points in Canada, the United States, and other international destinations; and specialty charter services for livestock shipments, military equipment movements, emergency relief supplies, and virtually large shipments across North America, South America, the Caribbean, and Europe. Further, the company is involved in the flight planning and dispatch, crew planning and training, ground handling, and commercial airline cargo management businesses. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 31 aircraft. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cargojet generates revenue primarily through its air cargo services, which include overnight express delivery and charter services. The company's revenue model is built on long-term contracts with major clients, including e-commerce giants and retailers, which provide a stable income stream. Key revenue streams include scheduled cargo flights, charter services for specific customer needs, and dedicated fleet services for businesses requiring consistent transportation solutions. Additionally, partnerships with logistics companies and freight forwarders enhance Cargojet's service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also benefits from seasonal demand spikes, particularly during peak shopping periods, which further bolsters its financial performance.

Cargojet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cargojet's financial statements present a mixed picture. While profitability metrics have improved, revenue growth is declining, and leverage is increasing, which could impact future financial stability. The company needs to address cash flow challenges to ensure sustainable growth. Overall, the financial health is moderate, with strengths in profitability but weaknesses in revenue growth and cash flow management.

Income Statement

Cargojet's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is 23.21%, which is a decline from previous years, indicating pressure on cost management. The net profit margin improved to 14.19% TTM, reflecting better profitability despite a slight revenue decline of 2.50% TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting operational efficiency. However, the negative revenue growth rate is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.31 TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity improved to 19.68% TTM, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced asset structure. However, the rising debt levels need attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates challenges with free cash flow, which is negative TTM, reflecting cash outflows exceeding inflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.06 TTM, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate and free cash flow to net income ratio highlight liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	1.00B	877.50M	979.90M	757.80M	668.50M
Gross Profit	205.00M	225.80M	138.10M	247.50M	232.40M	250.50M
EBITDA	287.00M	274.60M	219.80M	292.30M	270.00M	228.00M
Net Income	124.80M	108.40M	37.30M	190.60M	167.40M	-87.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.09B	1.93B	2.04B	1.99B	1.49B	1.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.70M	1.50M	31.80M	6.10M	94.70M	3.70M
Total Debt	957.00M	755.10M	799.20M	707.00M	398.60M	572.80M
Total Liabilities	1.35B	1.19B	1.25B	1.15B	813.40M	1.05B
Stockholders Equity	735.50M	737.70M	784.50M	831.50M	676.40M	175.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-108.30M	78.60M	-73.90M	-328.70M	-32.60M	146.00M
Operating Cash Flow	308.50M	328.60M	192.80M	282.50M	245.00M	292.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-447.00M	-142.70M	-127.50M	-615.10M	-280.40M	-127.70M
Financing Cash Flow	135.50M	-216.20M	-39.60M	244.00M	126.40M	-162.80M

Cargojet Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 93.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 93.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.57, above the 50-day MA of 84.66, and above the 200-day MA of 90.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CJT.

Cargojet Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTL	74 Outperform	C$1.54B	14.75	9.33%	5.21%	5.53%	-21.87%
CNR	72 Outperform	C$80.62B	17.30	22.24%	2.62%	0.23%	-13.22%
CJT	67 Neutral	C$1.40B	11.71	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%
TFII	67 Neutral	C$12.04B	27.18	11.98%	1.75%	-0.25%	-28.71%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AC	47 Neutral	$5.55B	-29.87	-10.66%	―	-0.09%	-109.21%
FLT	45 Neutral	$375.28M	-15.58	-45.72%	―	378.71%	27.52%

Cargojet Corporate Events

Cargojet Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter Results and Investor Call

Cargojet Inc. will release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 24, 2026, after markets close, followed by a management-hosted conference call on February 25 to discuss the performance. The planned call, led by CEO Pauline Dhillon, CFO Aaron McKay and VP of Finance Sanjeev Maini, underscores the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and analysts as it navigates the competitive air cargo market, offering stakeholders a key opportunity to assess recent operating trends and financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$143.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.35 Per Share

Cargojet Inc. has announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per common and variable voting share for the period from October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025. The dividend reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value and underscores its strong financial position in the air cargo industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Hold with a C$82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Announces Retirement of Co-CEO Jamie B. Porteous

Cargojet announced the retirement of Co-CEO and Founding Member Jamie B. Porteous, effective December 31, 2025. Jamie, who has been pivotal in transforming Cargojet into a premier air cargo carrier, will remain as a Strategic Advisor until the end of 2026 to ensure a smooth transition. His leadership has been instrumental in building strong customer partnerships and fostering a culture of service excellence. The company acknowledges his significant contributions and looks forward to his continued guidance in his advisory role.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Appoints Pauline Dhillon as New CEO to Lead Global Expansion

Cargojet has announced that Pauline Dhillon will become the Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026. Dhillon, who has been with the company since its inception, has played a pivotal role in its growth and development. Her leadership is expected to drive Cargojet’s expansion into European and Asian markets, leveraging its strong business model and customer relationships to tap into high-growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.

Cargojet Reports Strong Domestic Growth Amidst Macroeconomic Challenges

Cargojet Inc. reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing a strong performance in its domestic network with a 6% increase in revenue year-over-year, despite facing macroeconomic challenges that affected its ACMI and Charter services. The company achieved a robust EBITDA margin of 32% and a significant increase in free cash flow, demonstrating effective cost and capital management. However, total revenues decreased by 10.5%, and net earnings fell by 70.4%, primarily due to declines in ACMI and Charter revenues.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJT) stock is a Buy with a C$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cargojet stock, see the TSE:CJT Stock Forecast page.