Cargojet Inc (TSE:CJT)
TSX:CJT
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Cargojet
(TSX:CJT)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
C$84.00
▲(0.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is primarily held back by pressured financial flexibility (higher leverage and volatile/negative free cash flow) and weak technical momentum. These are partly offset by reasonable valuation and a cautiously constructive earnings outlook driven by strong margins and disciplined 2026 CapEx plans, though China/ACMI/charter uncertainty limits upside.
Positive Factors
High EBITDA margins / operating cash quality
Sustained adjusted EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid 30s indicate durable operating leverage in Cargojet's model. Combined with generally positive operating cash flow that historically covers accounting earnings, this supports earnings quality, resilience through cycles and the ability to fund operations and returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Materially higher leverage versus prior years reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk, especially given volatile free cash flow. Elevated debt increases interest and liquidity pressure, constraining the company's ability to pursue opportunistic growth or accelerate deleveraging if margins or volumes weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High EBITDA margins / operating cash quality
Sustained adjusted EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid 30s indicate durable operating leverage in Cargojet's model. Combined with generally positive operating cash flow that historically covers accounting earnings, this supports earnings quality, resilience through cycles and the ability to fund operations and returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Cargojet (CJT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.19B
Dividend Yield1.67%
Average Volume (3M)186.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)1.53
Revenue Growth-0.81%
EPS Growth-22.95%
CountryCA
Employees1,935
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.47
Shares Outstanding15,087,771
10 Day Avg. Volume203,078
30 Day Avg. Volume186,501
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)1.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio-12.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$117.22Price Target Upside40.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)3.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.01B
Cargojet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cargojet Inc. provides time sensitive overnight air cargo services in Canada. Its air cargo business activities include operation of domestic air cargo network services between fourteen cities in North America; and provision of dedicated aircraft ...
How the Company Makes Money
Cargojet makes money primarily by selling air cargo transportation capacity and related services. Its core revenue stream is contracted and scheduled air freight service, where customers (commonly integrators/couriers, e-commerce logistics network...
Cargojet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive tone: operational execution and disciplined cost/capital management delivered strong profitability (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $95M, 33.4% margin) and exceptional on-time performance (99%), with robust domestic overnight growth (~17% Q4, ~14% full year) and fleet/CapEx rationalization. Offsetting risks include meaningful declines in ACMI and charter revenues, a mutual suspension of the China contract driven by deteriorating China trade volumes (China-to-U.S. e-commerce -28% for 2025), elevated near-term leverage (2.8x pro forma) and lingering macro/tariff/geopolitical uncertainty that reduces visibility. On balance, the company demonstrated resilience and disciplined execution while acknowledging several material headwinds that could limit near-term upside.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $95 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.4%, maintained in the low-to-mid 30% range despite challenging conditions and a 2.9% year-over-year decline in total revenues.
Negative Updates
ACMI Revenue Decline
ACMI revenue in Q4 was $64.6 million, down $18.9 million year-over-year (≈22.6% decline) driven by disrupted transatlantic and transpacific routes and shorter stage lengths reducing block hours.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $95 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.4%, maintained in the low-to-mid 30% range despite challenging conditions and a 2.9% year-over-year decline in total revenues.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a disciplined 2026 with gross maintenance CapEx expected to be $190–$210 million (Aaron noted net CapEx after expected proceeds and opportunistic sale‑leasebacks could be nearer $160–$170 million) and growth CapEx to be tightly controlled and tied to long‑term committed revenue; Q4 CapEx was $45.6M (maintenance $37.5M, growth $8.1M) versus Q4 2024’s $136.9M (maintenance $92.7M, growth $44.2M). They reiterated a focus on maintaining industry‑leading service (99% on‑time in peak) and cost discipline after delivering Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $95M (33.4% margin) on revenues down 2.9% YoY, with domestic overnight revenue of $120.2M (up $17.4M, almost 17% QoQ and ~14% for the year), ACMI revenue $64.6M (down $18.9M YoY), and charter revenue $58.2M (vs. $64.4M). Fleet and balance‑sheet targets include an operational fleet of 41 aircraft, standardization to GE‑powered 767s, pro‑forma net leverage of 2.8x with a long‑term target below 2.5x, continued dividend growth (10% increase) and opportunistic use of the NCIB.Cargojet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 992.70M | 1.00B | 877.50M | 979.90M | 757.80M |
| Gross Profit | 197.10M | 225.80M | 138.10M | 247.50M | 232.40M |
| EBITDA | 299.70M | 274.60M | 219.80M | 292.30M | 270.00M |
| Net Income | 80.20M | 108.40M | 37.30M | 190.60M | 167.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.13B | 1.93B | 2.04B | 1.99B | 1.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.70M | 1.50M | 31.80M | 6.10M | 94.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 755.10M | 799.20M | 707.00M | 398.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.39B | 1.19B | 1.25B | 1.15B | 813.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 742.40M | 737.70M | 784.50M | 831.50M | 676.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -101.50M | 78.60M | -73.90M | -328.70M | -32.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 234.60M | 328.60M | 192.80M | 282.50M | 245.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -349.60M | -142.70M | -127.50M | -615.10M | -280.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 120.20M | -216.20M | -39.60M | 244.00M | 126.40M |
Cargojet Technical Analysis
Neutral
83.53
Price Trends
87.93
Negative
86.53
Negative
89.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.29
Negative
49.62
Neutral
40.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 83.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.79, below the 50-day MA of 87.93, and below the 200-day MA of 89.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CJT.
Cargojet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$95.82B | 16.73 | 21.95% | 2.62% | 1.51% | 7.91% | |
65 Neutral | C$15.49B | 73.02 | 11.65% | 1.75% | -7.84% | -21.07% | |
65 Neutral | C$1.95B | 19.45 | 8.72% | 5.21% | 7.92% | -14.19% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | C$5.32B | 4.82 | 30.13% | ― | 0.53% | -54.93% | |
52 Neutral | C$1.19B | 16.01 | 10.73% | 1.67% | -0.81% | -22.95% | |
45 Neutral | C$470.90M | -18.74 | -45.72% | ― | 152.45% | 6.82% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:CJT
Cargojet
78.88
-5.25
-6.24%
TSE:CNR
Canadian National Railway
157.36
27.29
20.98%
TSE:TFII
TFI International
197.81
88.03
80.19%
TSE:AC
Air Canada
18.04
3.99
28.40%
TSE:MTL
Mullen Group
20.39
8.00
64.58%
TSE:FLT
Volatus Aerospace
0.65
0.51
364.29%
Cargojet Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cargojet Lifts Margins on Domestic Strength Despite Revenue and Profit Declines
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
Cargojet reported fourth-quarter 2025 results highlighting a 3.6% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $95.0 million and a 210-basis-point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin to 33.4%, driven by lower direct and SGA costs despite softer revenue. Total reven...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Cargojet Lifts Quarterly Dividend by 10% as Management Signals Confidence
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Cargojet Inc. has raised its quarterly cash dividend to $0.385 per common and variable voting share for the period from January 1 to March 31, 2026, marking a 10% increase from the previous quarter. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cargojet Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
Cargojet Inc. will release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 24, 2026, after markets close, followed by a management-hosted conference call on February 25 to discuss the performance. The planned call, led by CEO Pauline Dhillon...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.