Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Aris Mining Corporation (TSE:ARIS)
:ARIS
Top Page
Aris Mining
(TSX:ARIS)
58Neutral
Positive Factors
Liquidity Improvement
ARIS successfully completed an offering of $450M of 8.000% Senior Notes due 2029, which will provide additional liquidity.
Production Expansion
Management noted that the Segovia expansion remains on track while Lower Marmato is now anticipated to further increase throughput, resulting in LOM production increasing from 162kozpa to over 200kozpa.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
ARIS reported Q3/24 adjusted EPS of $0.08/sh, which was a little below our estimate of $0.10/sh but missed consensus expectations of $0.13/sh.
Regulatory Challenges
The Colombian Ministry of Environment has completed the public consultation process in respect to establishing a Temporary Reserve Area where the Soto Norte Project is located, which may delay the start of construction for Soto Norte to 2029.
Aris Mining (ARIS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
C$1.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)431.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.5
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth14.80%
EPS Growth-114.65%
CountryCA
EmployeesN/A
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength66
IndustryMining
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding171,900,000
10 Day Avg. Volume637,661
30 Day Avg. Volume431,546
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)11.07
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)3.60
P/FCF Ratio9.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$10.25Price Target Upside58.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGran Colombia Gold Corp is a Canada based gold and silver exploration, development and production company. Along with its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Colombia. The project operations of the company are Segovia and Marmato project. It derives revenue from the sales of gold and silver, of which key revenue is derived from the sales of gold.
How the Company Makes MoneyAris Mining makes money through the extraction and sale of gold and other precious metals from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined gold and by-products extracted during the mining process. Aris Mining may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining companies to enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Factors such as market demand for gold, operational efficiency, and cost management significantly contribute to the company's earnings.
Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aris Mining shows revenue growth and operational efficiency, but profitability is a concern due to recent net losses. The balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, but equity returns need improvement. Cash flow management is challenged by high capital expenditures and negative free cash flow.Income Statement
Aris Mining's revenue has shown a consistent upward trend with a notable TTM revenue growth rate of 8.23%. However, the company faces challenges in profitability as indicated by a negative net income in the TTM. The gross profit margin is relatively stable at 29.76% in the TTM, but the negative net profit margin highlights potential cost management issues. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain solid at 21.53% and 26.15%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.46, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is negative in the TTM due to the net loss, but the equity ratio is strong at 44.23%, showcasing a solid asset base. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability with potential for improvement in equity returns.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Aris Mining's cash flow statement presents challenges with negative free cash flow growth and a declining free cash flow to net income ratio. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to the net loss, indicating cash generation issues relative to earnings. Capital expenditures are high, impacting free cash flow, which suggests a need for better cash management strategies.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 484.51M | 447.67M | 399.96M | 382.61M | 390.92M | 326.48M | Gross Profit |
| 144.21M | 185.91M | 171.95M | 170.05M | 192.20M | 136.92M | EBIT |
| 104.31M | 108.83M | 124.66M | 138.40M | 154.94M | 106.21M | EBITDA |
| 126.70M | 164.41M | 119.55M | 168.85M | 160.76M | 138.58M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -985.00K | 11.42M | 622.00K | 186.23M | -27.57M | -131.16M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 35.65M | 194.62M | 299.46M | 323.56M | 122.51M | 84.24M | Total Assets |
| 449.85M | 1.35B | 1.24B | 998.38M | 650.57M | 359.42M | Total Debt |
| 74.10M | 382.93M | 436.06M | 318.07M | 145.15M | 92.27M | Net Debt |
| 38.46M | 188.30M | 136.60M | -5.49M | 22.64M | 8.03M | Total Liabilities |
| 204.18M | 728.22M | 740.75M | 519.86M | 454.34M | 241.77M | Stockholders Equity |
| 245.68M | 624.65M | 501.38M | 478.53M | 153.71M | 117.65M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -80.07M | -9.02M | -38.05M | 17.09M | 73.58M | 60.61M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 83.42M | 104.70M | 76.95M | 80.55M | 136.38M | 103.28M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -306.96M | -180.28M | -54.58M | -229.72M | -72.31M | -51.61M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -3.69M | -33.33M | -39.32M | 359.67M | -23.61M | -2.97M |
Aris Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
6.46
Price Trends
5.59
Positive
5.60
Positive
5.78
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Negative
68.58
Neutral
90.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.77, above the 50-day MA of 5.59, and above the 200-day MA of 5.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ARIS.
Aris Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $21.10B | 16.23 | 14.66% | 1.00% | 16.53% | 206.89% | |
74 Outperform | C$4.58B | 11.58 | 8.12% | ― | 27.29% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $2.86B | 146.96 | 1.00% | 0.85% | 0.80% | 137.87% | |
66 Neutral | $3.78B | 27.46 | 11.14% | ― | 18.32% | ― | |
58 Neutral | C$1.11B | 31.53 | 3.48% | ― | 14.80% | -114.65% | |
54 Neutral | $6.18B | ― | -18.54% | 4.89% | -4.17% | -318.18% | |
47 Neutral | $2.68B | -4.00 | -28.59% | 3.28% | 2.32% | -29.47% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:ARIS
Aris Mining
6.47
1.90
41.58%
TSE:SSL
Sandstorm Gold
9.74
3.07
46.01%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
17.48
9.83
128.47%
TSE:NGD
New Gold
4.83
2.62
118.55%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
4.71
1.47
45.42%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
22.53
4.53
25.17%
Aris Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: 10.62% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in Q4 with record production and significant financial improvements. The company is well-positioned for growth with ongoing expansions at Segovia and Marmato. However, increased costs for expansion projects and higher realized gold costs pose challenges. Overall, the positive achievements outweigh the challenges.Highlights
Strong Q4 Production and Financial Performance
Q4 was a strong quarter, delivering the highest production for the year at 57,364 ounces. The company generated $22 million of net income and $67 million of EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Gold revenue increased by 13% compared to Q3, driven by higher realized gold prices and higher sales volumes.
Significant AISC Margin Improvement
The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin reached a 3-year high of $58 million in Q4, up 32% from the previous quarter. For the full year 2024, the Segovia operations generated an AISC margin of $163 million.
Expansion and Growth Potential
Segovia's processing facility is on track to expand, targeting annual production of 210,000 to 250,000 ounces in 2025, and 300,000 ounces from 2026 onwards. Marmato's expansion is expected to increase annual production potential to more than 200,000 ounces.
Strong Financial Position
The company ended the year with a cash balance of $253 million, up from $195 million at the end of 2023. Financing activities in Q4 generated a cash inflow of $164 million, including $136 million from refinancing bonds and $40 million from a precious metals stream.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Aris Mining expects consolidated gold production of between 230,000 to 275,000 ounces in 2025, with significant increase in Segovia's all-in sustaining cost margin anticipated.
Lowlights
Increased Costs for Expansion Projects
The estimated cost to complete the revised construction at Marmato, increasing throughput from 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, is $290 million, bringing the total upfront cost to $365 million, $85 million over the previous plan.
Higher Realized Gold Costs
Despite higher production, the realized gold cost increased by 8% in Q4, impacting the company's cost structure.
Company Guidance
In the Aris Mining Full Year 2024 Results Call, the company reported strong performance metrics and strategic plans for future growth. In Q4 2024, Aris Mining achieved its highest production of the year with 57,364 ounces of gold, generating $22 million in net income and $67 million in EBITDA. The Segovia operations reduced all-in sustaining costs to $1,485 per ounce and delivered an all-in sustaining margin of $58 million, marking a 32% increase from Q3. The company aims to expand the processing facility at Segovia from 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes per day and is targeting annual production of 210,000 to 250,000 ounces in 2025, with ambitions to reach 300,000 ounces annually starting in 2026. At Marmato, plans to upgrade the carbon-in-pulp processing facility aim to boost production to over 200,000 ounces per year. Aris Mining ended the year with a cash balance of $253 million and expects to achieve an annual gold production rate exceeding 500,000 ounces once expansions are fully operational. Key financial highlights include a 13% increase in gold revenue to $148 million in Q4, adjusted EBITDA growth of 29% quarter-over-quarter to $55.6 million, and significant cash flow from refinancing activities.Aris Mining Corporate Events
Aris Mining Achieves 2024 Production Goals and Sets Ambitious 2025 Outlook
Jan 15, 2025
Aris Mining Corporation reported achieving its 2024 gold production guidance with a total output of 210,955 ounces, primarily from its Segovia and Marmato operations. Looking ahead, the company anticipates increased production in 2025 due to expansion projects, aiming for an output between 230,000 and 275,000 ounces. With a cash reserve of US$253 million, Aris Mining is well-positioned to fund these projects and expects significant growth in production capacity and strategic advancements in key projects.
Aris Mining Adapts to Environmental Resolution
Nov 28, 2024
Aris Mining is navigating a proposed Colombian Ministry of Environment resolution that temporarily halts new environmental licenses in the Santurbán region, impacting its Soto Norte Project. The company is focused on redesigning this project to minimize environmental impact and support local communities, with development plans aligning with international standards.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.