New Gold (NGD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$9.32B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 3.12
• Revenue Growth: 48.70%
• EPS Growth: 1718.41%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,337
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 791,726,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,693,750
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,067,665
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$17.75
• Price Target Upside: 50.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.69B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: C$12.50 ▲(6.20% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/22/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/22/26

The score is driven mainly by improved financial performance (strong revenue growth, sharply higher operating cash flow, positive free cash flow, and a stronger equity base with stable debt). This is offset by weak technicals showing a clear downtrend despite oversold readings, while valuation is supportive with a low P/E but no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Strong operating profitability

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency and cost control across assets. Robust margins provide a persistent buffer against commodity price swings, support reinvestment into mines, and underpin long-term earnings stability and cash generation.

Record free cash flow and accelerated debt paydown

A substantial one-off FCF print paired with proactive $260M debt repayment materially strengthens financial flexibility. This improved cash generation and lower leverage enhance capacity to fund growth projects and absorb future commodity or operational volatility over multiple quarters.

Manageable leverage and strong ROE

Low net leverage and a high ROE reflect disciplined capital allocation and an equity-heavy capital structure. This balanced sheet profile supports strategic investment, exploration budgets, and resilience through commodity cycles without over-reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

Weak trailing free cash flow growth

Persistent negative FCF growth and low FCF conversion versus net income signal structural cash conversion issues. If sustained, limited free cash constrains dividends, buybacks, and organic growth funding, increasing dependence on debt or equity for capital-intensive projects.

Higher cash costs and growth capex needs

Ongoing underground development raises structural operating costs and capex requirements for several quarters. While necessary for long-term throughput, elevated sustaining and growth spend pressures margins and free cash generation, delaying full benefit realization from new zones.

Acquisition introduces integration and execution risk

A takeover is a fundamental change that creates multi-quarter integration risk: strategic reprioritization, potential asset rationalization, management turnover, and uncertain synergy capture. These factors can disrupt operations and capital plans during the transition.

New Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Gold Inc., an intermediate gold mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. The company's principal operating properties include 100% interests in the Rainy River mine located in Ontario, Canada; and New Afton mine situated in British Columbia, Canada. It also operates the Cerro San Pedro mine in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

New Gold makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals from its operating mines. Revenue is generated when gold doré (and any payable by-product metals such as copper and silver, depending on the asset) is sold to third-party buyers, with sales proceeds largely driven by (1) the volume of metal produced and sold, (2) realized market prices for gold and other payable metals, and (3) the payable terms, refining charges, and treatment costs embedded in sales contracts. The company’s core revenue stream is gold sales; by-product credits from copper and/or silver can contribute additional revenue and can reduce per-unit costs depending on production mix. Cash flow and profitability are affected by operating costs (mining, processing, site G&A), sustaining capital, royalties, and taxes, as well as factors such as ore grades, metallurgical recoveries, mine sequencing, and currency and energy input costs. New Gold may also use commodity price risk management (e.g., hedging) from time to time, which can affect realized revenue and cash flows versus spot prices. Specific significant partnerships, streaming/royalty arrangements, or offtake counterparties: null.

New Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong rebound in fundamentals: revenue grew to $1.50B in 2025 with improved profitability, operating cash flow jumped to ~$874M, and free cash flow turned solidly positive (~$271M). Balance sheet strength improved with sharply higher equity while debt stayed roughly stable, but results have been historically volatile with prior loss years, reflecting commodity-cycle sensitivity.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the last several years (from $643M in 2020 to $1.50B in 2025), including ~22% growth in 2025. Profitability has also improved meaningfully after loss years in 2022–2023, with 2024 returning to positive margins and 2025 showing very strong earnings versus sales. The main weakness is historical volatility in earnings (multiple loss years) and uneven margin profile typical of a cyclical commodity business.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled and stable: total debt has stayed around ~$396–$402M in recent years, while equity increased materially (to ~$1.91B in 2025 from ~$1.05B in 2024). This implies improving balance-sheet strength and a larger capital cushion. Risk factors include the company’s history of negative returns on equity in down years (2022–2023), highlighting sensitivity to operating and gold-price conditions even with moderate debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened sharply: operating cash flow rose from ~$393M (2024) to ~$874M (2025), and free cash flow improved to ~$271M (2025) after being modest/negative in earlier periods (including negative free cash flow in 2022). The primary concern is consistency—free cash flow has swung significantly across years, indicating higher execution/commodity-cycle variability despite recent momentum.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	924.50M	786.50M	604.40M	745.50M
Gross Profit	742.58M	240.70M	336.10M	78.10M	172.50M
EBITDA	898.36M	339.10M	182.90M	177.50M	322.90M
Net Income	872.92M	102.60M	-64.50M	-66.80M	140.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.17B	2.00B	2.29B	2.24B	2.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	330.20M	110.30M	192.60M	236.40M	541.00M
Total Debt	395.68M	399.70M	401.20M	396.20M	501.70M
Total Liabilities	1.27B	951.50M	1.50B	1.28B	1.52B
Stockholders Equity	1.91B	1.05B	789.20M	959.50M	955.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	270.76M	121.70M	21.70M	-102.20M	76.40M
Operating Cash Flow	873.83M	392.80M	287.60M	190.70M	323.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-596.46M	-263.40M	-234.00M	-281.90M	57.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-49.65M	-207.80M	-68.60M	-185.00M	-86.50M

New Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NGD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.36, below the 50-day MA of 15.30, and above the 200-day MA of 10.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NGD.

New Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OGC	73 Outperform	C$9.14B	10.22	30.82%	0.42%	51.00%	532.40%
ELD	67 Neutral	C$8.53B	14.13	12.40%	―	44.88%	38.67%
OR	67 Neutral	C$8.46B	31.70	14.47%	0.55%	37.22%	―
NGD	65 Neutral	C$9.32B	10.07	22.38%	―	48.70%	1718.41%
ARTG	62 Neutral	$7.55B	24.10	28.16%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
BTO	58 Neutral	C$7.24B	14.58	12.15%	1.71%	34.31%	―

New Gold Corporate Events

New Gold and Coeur Shareholders Back All-Stock Deal to Create North American Precious Metals Player

New Gold shareholders have overwhelmingly approved a plan of arrangement under which a wholly owned subsidiary of U.S.-listed Coeur Mining will acquire all outstanding New Gold common shares, with more than 99% of votes cast in favour of the transaction. Coeur stockholders also granted the necessary approvals, paving the way for the creation of a new, all-North American precious metals producer that combines similar safety-focused cultures and financial profiles, and is expected to offer exploration upside, longer mine lives, and enhanced net asset value per share. Pending final court and regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, the deal is anticipated to close in the first half of 2026, with New Gold shareholders set to receive 0.4959 Coeur shares for each New Gold share and ultimately hold about 38% of the combined company, while Coeur shareholders will own roughly 62%.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold Hits 2025 Production Targets and Generates Over $530 Million in Free Cash Flow

New Gold reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 operational results, achieving its production guidance with consolidated output of 353,772 ounces of gold and 50.1 million pounds of copper, alongside record-low safety incident rates. The company generated $240 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $532 million for the full year after significant capital investments in growth initiatives, notably the C-Zone cave construction at New Afton and the Rainy River underground Main, both of which are progressing well. Rainy River delivered standout free cash flow and reached the top end of its gold production guidance, while New Afton met its gold and copper targets. New Gold also increased its exploration spending by about 27% above initial guidance to capitalize on promising drill results, positioning the company for another strong operational year in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

ISS Backs New Gold–Coeur Mining Deal as Board Urges Shareholder Support

New Gold said that proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services has recommended that its shareholders vote in favour of the planned all-share acquisition by Coeur Mining, under which a Coeur subsidiary would acquire all outstanding New Gold common shares. The deal terms provide New Gold investors with 0.4959 Coeur shares for each New Gold share, resulting in Coeur and New Gold shareholders owning roughly 62% and 38% of the combined company, respectively; ISS cited expected operational synergies, a stronger balance sheet, and improved liquidity as reasons for its support, and New Gold’s board is unanimously urging shareholders to back the transaction at a special meeting set for January 27, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.