Kinross Gold (K) AI Stock Analysis

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Kinross Gold

(NYSE:K)

80Outperform

Kinross Gold's strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation, underpins its overall stock score. The positive earnings call and technical indicators suggesting upward momentum further support its strong position. However, caution is advised due to potential cost increases and production challenges, along with valuation metrics that, while reasonable, do not provide a significant margin of safety. The stock is well-positioned for future growth, but investors should monitor operational costs and production levels closely.

Positive Factors

Capital Return

Net debt decreased by 32% driven by strong free cash flow, setting the stage for a reinstatement of the share buyback program.

Production Stability

KGC's ability to maintain annual production at 2 million GEO for 2025-27 is a strong positive that should allay concerns of a potential acquisition.

Resource Growth

Inferred resources increased by 15% driven by higher grade additions at Great Bear and Curlew.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Q4’24 earnings missed expectations due to higher costs and lower production.

Kinross Gold (K) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

C$20.61B

Dividend Yield1.03%

Average Volume (3M)3.84M

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8

Beta (1Y)1.56

Revenue Growth23.38%

EPS Growth131.87%

CountryCA

Employees8,447

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength59

IndustryGold

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.06

Shares Outstanding1,230,444,000

10 Day Avg. Volume3,437,530

30 Day Avg. Volume3,837,591

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.12

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)2.89

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)5.10

P/FCF Ratio7.90

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$19.93

Price Target Upside18.97% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Kinross Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKinross Gold Corporation is a Canadian-based gold mining company with operations and projects across multiple continents. The company focuses on the exploration, acquisition, and development of gold properties, primarily operating open-pit and underground mines. Kinross Gold is committed to responsible mining practices, aiming to deliver value to shareholders while minimizing environmental impact and supporting the communities in which it operates.

How the Company Makes MoneyKinross Gold generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company operates several mines across the Americas, West Africa, and Russia, where it extracts gold ore and processes it into gold bars or dore. These products are then sold on the global market at prevailing gold prices, contributing to the company's primary revenue stream. Additionally, Kinross occasionally sells silver as a byproduct of its gold mining operations. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining companies or local entities can also influence its earnings, allowing shared risk and capital investments in new projects or expansions. Fluctuations in gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiencies are significant factors affecting Kinross Gold's profitability.

Kinross Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kinross Gold's financial performance is commendable, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability margins reflecting operational efficiency. The balance sheet is strong with a conservative leverage approach, though asset utilization can be optimized. Excellent cash flow management enhances financial flexibility, positioning the company well for future growth and resilience in the mining sector.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Kinross Gold has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 21.45% increase from the previous year, and a significant net profit margin improvement to 18.43% in 2024. The gross profit margin is robust at 57.34%, indicating effective cost control. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown considerable strength at 29.92% and 50.53% respectively. These metrics reflect strong profitability and operational efficiency in a competitive mining industry.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.21, indicating a conservative leverage position, which is positive for financial stability. Return on equity has improved to 13.83%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio of 63.15% reflects a solid capital structure. However, there is room for improvement in asset utilization to further enhance financial health.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Kinross Gold's free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 152.06%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 2.58, suggesting robust cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.35 further underscores healthy cash flow management. These metrics highlight strong liquidity and financial flexibility.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.15B	4.24B	3.46B	3.73B	4.21B
	Gross Profit
2.95B	1.16B	515.40M	1.02B	2.30B
	EBIT
1.54B	764.40M	200.40M	463.60M	1.90B
	EBITDA
2.60B	1.76B	945.40M	854.61M	2.73B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
948.80M	416.30M	-605.20M	221.20M	1.34B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
628.20M	366.90M	418.10M	531.50M	1.21B
	Total Assets
10.87B	10.54B	10.40B	10.43B	10.93B
	Total Debt
1.45B	2.26B	2.62B	1.68B	1.97B
	Net Debt
841.00M	1.91B	2.20B	1.15B	759.30M
	Total Liabilities
3.87B	4.36B	4.51B	3.78B	4.27B
	Stockholders Equity
6.86B	6.08B	5.82B	6.58B	6.60B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.28B	507.00M	242.20M	145.50M	993.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.45B	1.61B	1.05B	1.14B	1.96B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.18B	-1.01B	-1.60B	-1.19B	-1.25B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.01B	-549.00M	437.50M	-623.20M	-67.70M

Kinross Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price16.75

Price Trends

50DMA

16.59

Positive

100DMA

15.30

Positive

200DMA

13.91

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.52

Negative

RSI

68.10

Neutral

STOCH

74.38

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:K, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.24, above the 50-day MA of 16.59, and above the 200-day MA of 13.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:K.

Kinross Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (47)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
K	80 Outperform	C$20.61B	15.84	14.66%	1.03%	23.38%	131.87%
AEM	80 Outperform	$71.15B	27.23	9.42%	1.60%	26.99%	-6.63%
ELD	79 Outperform	$4.73B	11.83	8.12%	―	33.06%	177.69%
ABX	73 Outperform	$43.27B	14.97	9.00%	2.29%	15.40%	72.49%
NGD	66 Neutral	C$3.38B	24.28	11.14%	―	18.32%	―
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.36B	-3.00	-21.73%	3.58%	3.97%	-28.71%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:K

Kinross Gold

16.75

8.17

95.24%

TSE:NGD

New Gold

4.27

1.88

78.66%

TSE:ABX

Barrick Gold

25.11

1.61

6.83%

TSE:AEM

Agnico Eagle

141.46

60.03

73.72%

TSE:ELD

Eldorado Gold

23.01

2.51

12.24%

Kinross Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -3.42% | Next Earnings Date: May 6, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong financial performance and significant operational achievements, particularly in free cash flow and debt repayment. However, there were concerns about increased costs and reduced production at Tasiast, along with higher tax payments. Overall, the positives seem to outweigh the negatives.

Highlights

Record Free Cash Flow

Kinross Gold generated a record free cash flow of over $1.34 billion for the full year, more than doubling against the prior year.

Strong Operating Margins

Operating margins increased by 37% compared to a 23% increase in the realized gold price, demonstrating strong cost management.

Production Achievements

Full year production achieved market commitments with over 2.1 million ounces produced. Tasiast and Paracatu were significant contributors, with Tasiast delivering a record annual throughput.

Debt Repayment

Kinross Gold fully repaid its $1 billion term loan, reducing net debt by approximately $1.4 billion over the last 24 months.

Sustainability Initiatives

Kinross completed more than 15 energy efficiency projects and is on track to achieve a 30% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030.

Lowlights

Higher Cost Guidance

Cost of sales and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are guided to increase by approximately 10% in 2025 due to lower production and modest cost inflation.

Lower Planned Production at Tasiast

Production from Tasiast is expected to be lower in 2025 due to mine plan sequencing and lower grades.

Increased Cash Tax Payments

Cash tax guidance increased significantly, reflecting higher income taxes in Mauritania, Brazil, and Chile due to higher gold prices.

Company Guidance

In the Kinross Gold Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call, the company reported producing over 500,000 ounces in Q4 and over 2.1 million ounces for the full year, achieving its market commitments. The cost of sales was $1,096 per ounce in Q4 and $1,021 for the year, while all-in sustaining costs were $1,510 per ounce in Q4 and $1,388 for the year. The company generated record free cash flow of more than $1.34 billion, significantly benefiting from a 37% rise in operating margins against a 23% increase in the realized gold price. Kinross's two largest assets, Tasiast and Paracatu, accounted for over half of the production, with Tasiast delivering record throughput and Paracatu producing over 500,000 ounces for the seventh consecutive year. The company's outlook remains stable, with a production target of 2 million ounces annually through 2027, and it plans to return additional capital to shareholders via a share buyback if the current gold price holds.

Kinross Gold Corporate Events

Kinross Gold to Announce 2024 Financial Results and 2025 Guidance in February

Jan 13, 2025

Kinross Gold Corporation announced it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results and 2025 guidance on February 12, 2025. The announcement will include mineral reserves and resources, as well as updates on exploration and projects, followed by a conference call and webcast on February 13. Additionally, the company provided its quarterly reporting schedule for 2025, which includes releases and conference calls for the first three quarters, and the date for its Annual Meeting of Shareholders.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.