Alithya Group (ALYA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $135.59M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 108.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 60.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 3.40%
• EPS Growth: -691.81%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 92,368,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 57,819
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,369
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.03
• 1Y Price Target: $2.52
• Price Target Upside: 87.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $482.73M

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: C$1.50 ▲(11.11% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue and persistent losses) and bearish technicals (trading below key moving averages with negative MACD). Positive free cash flow provides some support, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Diversified services and recurring revenue

Alithya's broad services across technology consulting, ERP, cloud, and analytics create a durable professional-services business model. Time-and-materials work plus maintenance/support contracts and long-term client relationships produce recurring revenue streams and cross-sell optionality that support stability over the next several quarters.

Major technology partnerships

Partnerships with Microsoft and Oracle provide structural advantages: faster access to enterprise deal pipelines, validated integration capabilities, co-selling opportunities and product-aligned service offerings. These alliances reduce go-to-market friction and help sustain project pipelines and higher-margin managed services over time.

Positive operating and free cash flow

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow despite net losses signals strong cash conversion from services operations. This cash generation provides internal funding for strategic investments, working capital and partial debt servicing, improving operational resilience and giving management optionality to execute turnaround steps.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and persistent losses

A roughly 12% TTM revenue decline combined with ongoing net losses erodes scale and operating leverage. Continued top-line contraction limits margin recovery and reinvestment capacity, increasing the risk that cash generation and partner-driven opportunities may not translate into sustained profit improvement within a multi-quarter horizon.

Moderate-to-elevated leverage

Debt-to-equity near 0.95 reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. With profitability negative, servicing and reducing leverage becomes harder, constraining capital for investments or M&A and increasing vulnerability if cash conversion weakens or if market credit conditions tighten over the medium term.

Very low EBITDA margins and weak earnings quality

Very low EBITDA margins imply limited ability to absorb revenue volatility and invest in growth. Weak earnings quality makes returns sensitive to small cost or revenue swings, prolongs the path to positive equity returns, and limits the firm's ability to build reserves or reinvest for competitive differentiation over several quarters.

Alithya Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alithya Group Inc. provides strategy and digital technology services in Canada, the United States, and Europe. The company's business strategy services include strategic consulting, digital transformation, organizational performance, and enterprise architecture services. It also provides application services, such as digital applications DevOps, legacy systems modernization, control and software engineering, cloud infrastructure, quality assurance, and automated testing; enterprise solutions comprising enterprise resource planning, corporate performance management, customer relationship management, and human capital management; and data and analytics solutions, including business intelligence, data management, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning, as well as internet of things. In addition, the company provides AI-FI, an integrated artificial intelligence and fidelity solution; Alithya GoTest, solution allows clients to test the functionality of applications on various platforms; CASSI analytics for online weekly maintenance, outage management, petrochemical turnarounds, and maintenance and reliability; and SIDER, a secure solution that facilitates distribution of medical results to healthcare sectors and to centralized electronic medical records. It serves financial services, energy, manufacturing, telecommunications, transportation and logistics, professional services, healthcare, and government sectors. Alithya Group Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Alithya generates revenue primarily through its consulting and professional services, which include technology implementation, project management, and ongoing support. The company operates on a time-and-materials basis for many of its consulting services, charging clients based on the hours worked and the expertise provided. Additionally, Alithya earns revenue from fixed-price contracts for specific projects, particularly in software development and system integration. Key revenue streams also include maintenance and support services for custom applications and software solutions. The company has established significant partnerships with major technology providers, such as Microsoft and Oracle, which can contribute to revenue through joint offerings and integrated solutions. Furthermore, Alithya benefits from long-term client relationships, allowing for recurring revenue through ongoing contracts and repeat business.

Alithya Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed financial quality: revenue declined (~12% TTM) and net losses persist with weak EBITDA margins, offset by solid positive operating and free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage is moderate-to-elevated (debt-to-equity ~0.95) and trending higher, with negative returns on equity.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined ~12% and profitability remains pressured: operating results are negative and net losses persist. Gross margin improved versus earlier years and remains relatively steady around the low-30% range, but very low EBITDA margin in TTM indicates limited cost absorption and weak earnings quality. Overall, the company shows some margin resilience, yet the continuing losses and shrinking top line weigh on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate-to-elevated with debt roughly near equity in TTM (debt-to-equity ~0.95), up from prior annual periods, indicating a less conservative capital structure. Equity remains positive, but returns on equity are negative, reflecting value dilution from ongoing losses. Asset base is sizable relative to equity, and the main offset is that leverage is not extreme—however, the trend toward higher leverage and negative profitability keeps the score below average.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are solidly positive, with strong free cash flow growth versus the prior period. The business has also improved meaningfully from earlier years that included negative operating and free cash flow. That said, cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt, and the company is still reporting net losses, which introduces sustainability risk if cash conversion weakens.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	488.94M	473.48M	522.70M	437.88M	287.64M	279.01M
Gross Profit	151.26M	147.01M	151.77M	116.15M	83.02M	82.97M
EBITDA	8.56M	36.00M	6.38M	5.80M	-809.00K	-25.60M
Net Income	-22.06M	1.29M	-30.10M	-15.55M	-17.34M	-39.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	373.95M	425.98M	464.10M	447.72M	243.26M	257.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.94M	15.96M	22.58M	17.66M	6.90M	8.81M
Total Debt	125.80M	118.91M	145.71M	127.94M	70.41M	66.46M
Total Liabilities	218.56M	241.42M	277.03M	247.97M	135.25M	130.45M
Stockholders Equity	155.40M	184.56M	187.07M	199.75M	108.01M	127.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	35.93M	46.99M	26.30M	-4.71M	-2.73M	4.16M
Operating Cash Flow	37.53M	48.43M	28.88M	-1.63M	-456.00K	8.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.72M	-7.82M	-13.73M	-18.94M	-4.57M	-18.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-25.54M	-34.15M	-11.33M	31.40M	3.42M	4.94M

Alithya Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.48, below the 50-day MA of 1.61, and below the 200-day MA of 1.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ALYA.

Alithya Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GIB.A	70 Outperform	$21.85B	15.49	16.85%	0.48%	8.43%	0.25%
PVT	64 Neutral	C$45.57M	10.70	7.17%	―	-13.43%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ALYA	45 Neutral	$135.59M	60.68	-16.17%	―	3.40%	-691.81%
KNR	44 Neutral	C$104.58M	2.69	-0.42%	―	-59.23%	-100.34%
DM	43 Neutral	C$11.44M	-1.20	-58.58%	―	-56.02%	91.71%
NERD	42 Neutral	C$3.21M	-4.02	―	―	13.01%	20.00%