Andrew Peller A NV (ADW.A) AI Stock Analysis

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Andrew Peller A NV

(TSX:ADW.A)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:―

Andrew Peller A NV's strengths in revenue growth and cash flow management are noteworthy. However, profitability challenges and high leverage are significant concerns. The positive earnings call offsets some of these issues with growth in key areas. Technical analysis and valuation suggest caution, with the stock appearing overvalued and displaying bearish momentum. Overall, a balanced outlook with room for improvement in financial health is indicated.

Andrew Peller A NV (ADW.A) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$244.64M

Dividend Yield4.53%

Average Volume (3M)25.73K

Price to Earnings (P/E)20.7

Beta (1Y)0.57

Revenue Growth5.42%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryCA

Employees1,367

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength55

IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.02

Shares Outstanding35,284,794

10 Day Avg. Volume40,777

30 Day Avg. Volume25,734

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.21

Price to Book (P/B)0.82

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio5.30

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$13.00

Price Target Upside139.41% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Andrew Peller A NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAndrew Peller Limited engages in the production, bottling, and marketing of wines and craft beverage alcohol products in Canada. The company offers products under Peller Estates, Trius, Thirty Bench, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, Red Rooster, Black Hills Estate Winery, Tinhorn Creek Vineyards, Gray Monk Estate Winery, Raven Conspiracy, and Conviction brands; Peller Family Vineyards, Copper Moon, Black Cellar, and XOXO brands; and Hochtaler, Domaine D'Or, Schloss Laderheim, Royal, and Sommet brands. It also produces craft beverage alcohol products, including No Boats on Sunday ciders and seltzers, beer, spirits, and cream whisky products under the Wayne Gretzky No. 99 brand. In addition, the company produces and markets personal winemaking products under Winexpert, Vine Co., Apres, LE, Passport Series, On the House, Wild Grapes, DIY My Wine Co., Island Mist, and Niagara Mist brands; and distributes these products through authorized and independent retailers in Canada, as well as through additional distributors in the United States, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia, and China. Further, it owns and operates 101 independent retail locations in Ontario under The Wine Shop, Wine Country Vintners, and Wine Country Merchants store names; and operates Andrew Peller Import Agency, importers, marketing agents, and The Small Winemaker's Collection Inc. to import premium wines from around the world. The company was formerly known as Andrés Wines Ltd. and changed its name to Andrew Peller Limited in 2006. Andrew Peller Limited was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Grimsby, Canada.

How the Company Makes MoneyAndrew Peller Limited generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of wines. The company sells its products through various channels, including retail stores, restaurants, and direct-to-consumer sales via its own retail outlets and e-commerce platforms. Additionally, the company operates estate wineries that offer hospitality services, such as wine tours and tastings, which contribute to its revenue. Key revenue streams include domestic sales within Canada and export markets, with a focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing brand recognition. Strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors play a crucial role in reaching a wider audience and driving sales growth.

Andrew Peller A NV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 11, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 11.27%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a strong fiscal year with record revenue, improved margins, and successful channel expansion, offset by some sales decline in the fourth quarter and softness in certain sales channels. The positive aspects of growth, profitability, and strategic investments outweigh the challenges.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue and Market Share Growth

Andrew Peller Limited achieved an all-time high in revenue for fiscal 2025, outside of the first year of COVID, and grew market share across all major markets, becoming one of the fastest-growing domestic wine suppliers.

Gross Margin and EBITDA Improvement

Gross margin for the year rose above 40%, with a significant increase to 42.8% due to cost savings programs and the Ontario Grape Support Program. EBITDA increased by 25% to $62.9 million.

Successful Channel Expansion

Sales growth led by success in big box retail and 4,000 new distribution points in Ontario. Initial demand in the channel exceeded expectations, with strong performance from Gretzky, Trius, and PJ's portfolios.

Debt Reduction and Strong Cash Flow

Net debt reduced from $208.5 million to $182.4 million, with cash from operations increasing to $60.2 million compared to $38.1 million in the prior year.

Ontario Grape Support Program Impact

The Ontario Grape Support Program contributed $9.8 million to the gross margin and supports increased domestic grape content, with investments planned to handle increased production.

Negative Updates

Sales Decline in Fourth Quarter

Fourth-quarter sales decreased by $9.5 million or 11.2% year-over-year to $75.5 million, primarily due to the timing of the Ontario VQA Support Program.

Softness in Estate Sales

Softness in estate sales was observed due to tightening consumer economic conditions and a decrease in the company's retail store network following expanded distribution in Ontario.

Challenges in Personal Winemaking Business

Some softness was reported in the personal winemaking business, partially affecting overall revenue.

Company Guidance

During the Andrew Peller Limited Q4 2025 financial results conference call, the company reported several key financial metrics indicating a strong fiscal performance. The revenue for the year reached $389.6 million, marking a 1% increase year-over-year, despite a fourth-quarter sales decrease of $9.5 million primarily due to changes in the Ontario VQA Support Program. The gross margin improved significantly to 42.8% for the year, driven by operational efficiencies and the Ontario Grape Support Program, which contributed $9.8 million in the fourth quarter. EBITDA for the year rose by 25% to $62.9 million, reflecting successful cost savings initiatives and government support. Additionally, the company's net debt was reduced from $208.5 million to $182.4 million, and their debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to just under 3:1. These results highlight Andrew Peller Limited's strategic growth and financial stability, positioning it for continued success in fiscal 2026.

Andrew Peller A NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Andrew Peller A NV displays stable revenue and strong cash flow management. However, challenges with profitability and high leverage pose significant risks. Improvements in operational efficiency and debt management are necessary to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company shows stable revenue over the years with a slight increase in the most recent year. However, profitability is a concern with negative net income in recent years, indicating financial challenges. Gross profit margin is stable but lower EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect decreased operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals moderate financial health with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage, suggesting potential risk. Equity ratio is stable, showing a balanced asset distribution. However, decreasing stockholders' equity over the years is a negative sign.

Cash Flow

Positive

Positive growth in free cash flow is a strong indicator of financial resilience. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the cash flow is primarily driven by improved cash management rather than increased profitability. This suggests good cash flow management despite net income challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	289.86M	385.86M	382.14M	373.94M	393.04M	382.31M
Gross Profit	110.72M	140.27M	132.10M	129.88M	146.38M	156.19M
EBITDA	31.11M	36.89M	34.84M	47.77M	63.72M	58.33M
Net Income	359.00K	-2.85M	-3.35M	12.47M	27.79M	23.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	515.94M	553.20M	566.75M	558.07M	542.52M	513.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.56M	0.00	-14.73M	1.30M	2.74M	-17.82M
Total Debt	171.68M	226.51M	227.76M	208.33M	192.36M	183.06M
Total Liabilities	243.57M	311.76M	313.11M	292.67M	276.95M	268.40M
Stockholders Equity	272.37M	241.44M	253.64M	265.40M	265.57M	245.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	19.71M	22.34M	-6.58M	-7.31M	4.58M	8.23M
Operating Cash Flow	32.27M	38.12M	13.75M	15.59M	41.12M	31.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.02M	-14.84M	-20.33M	-14.11M	-36.54M	-23.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-9.33M	-23.28M	5.28M	-2.92M	-1.84M	-8.23M

Andrew Peller A NV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price5.43

Price Trends

50DMA

4.67

Positive

100DMA

4.72

Positive

200DMA

4.34

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.21

Negative

RSI

68.76

Neutral

STOCH

76.98

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADW.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.97, above the 50-day MA of 4.67, and above the 200-day MA of 4.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ADW.A.

Andrew Peller A NV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HLF	78 Outperform	C$523.08M	6.83	14.49%	3.78%	-4.45%	90.27%
CSW.B	74 Outperform	C$395.21M	14.44	14.27%	9.61%	16.37%	25.61%
CSW.A	72 Outperform	C$395.21M	15.31	14.27%	9.03%	16.37%	25.61%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$26.88B	15.06	-4.01%	3.23%	1.02%	2.11%
ADW.A	60 Neutral	C$244.64M	20.66	4.58%	4.53%	5.42%	―
DWS		C$12.82M	―	-8.99%	―	―	―
HBFGF		$105.76M	―	-183.38%	―	―	―

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:ADW.A

Andrew Peller A NV

5.43

1.67

44.41%

TSE:CSW.A

Corby Spirit&Wine A

14.00

1.98

16.47%

TSE:CSW.B

Corby Spirit&Wn B NV

13.20

1.82

15.99%

TSE:DWS

Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits

0.20

0.00

0.00%

TSE:HLF

High Liner Foods

17.98

5.15

40.14%

HBFGF

Happy Belly Food Group

0.81

0.46

131.43%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 30, 2025