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Andrew Peller A NV
(TSX:ADW.A)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$8.50
▲(59.47% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/16/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance—stronger 2026 profitability, meaningful debt reduction, and sharply higher free cash flow. Valuation is a secondary positive with a moderate P/E and solid dividend yield. The main offset is technical risk: momentum is strong, but the very high RSI indicates the stock may be stretched in the near term.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Material free cash flow generation in 2026 (FCF ~58.8M; OCF ~74M) provides durable internal funding for capex, brand investment, and debt paydown. Sustained FCF reduces reliance on external financing and supports reinvestment and shareholder returns over coming years.
Negative Factors
Modest revenue growth
Underlying top‑line growth is low single digits after adjustments, reflecting a mature domestic market and regulated provincial channels. Slow revenue expansion constrains earnings leverage and requires sustained margin or mix improvement to materially lift profitability over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Material free cash flow generation in 2026 (FCF ~58.8M; OCF ~74M) provides durable internal funding for capex, brand investment, and debt paydown. Sustained FCF reduces reliance on external financing and supports reinvestment and shareholder returns over coming years.
Read all positive factors
Andrew Peller A NV (ADW.A) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$381.54M
Dividend Yield4.71%
Average Volume (3M)22.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.24
Revenue Growth0.87%
EPS Growth142.20%
CountryCA
Employees1,370
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding35,927,776
10 Day Avg. Volume22,711
30 Day Avg. Volume22,394
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)0.56
P/FCF Ratio3.77
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$395.80M
Andrew Peller A NV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Founded in 1961 and headquartered in Grimsby, Canada, Andrew Peller Limited is a leading Canadian producer, bottler, and marketer of wines and craft alcoholic beverages. The company boasts an extensive wine portfolio, featuring well-known brands s...
How the Company Makes Money
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Andrew Peller A NV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple financial and operational positives: Q3 revenue growth (+3.3%), higher gross margins (41.8% Q3; YTD 43.3%), EBITDA growth (+6% Q3; ~16% YTD), declining net debt and lower interest expense, and successful product innovation (LayLow, Better-for-You and Sparkling investments). Weakness was limited to company-owned retail and wine kit softness, higher S&A spending to support growth, and more modest year-to-date revenue growth when normalized for a prior strike. Management expressed confidence in execution, continued innovation, and a healthy balance sheet while noting that further margin gains will be incremental after delivering most of the cost-savings program.Positive Updates
Top-line growth in Q3
Q3 revenue increased 3.3% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Western Canada (BC replacement program), momentum in Ontario channels (big box, grocery, liquor board), and Wine Club growth (new members, improved retention, higher average spend).
Negative Updates
Softness in owned retail stores and wine kit business
Management reported partial softness in the company's owned retail store network and the wine kit business as consumers adjust to the evolving distribution landscape in Ontario.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line growth in Q3
Q3 revenue increased 3.3% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in Western Canada (BC replacement program), momentum in Ontario channels (big box, grocery, liquor board), and Wine Club growth (new members, improved retention, higher average spend).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the company is on track to deliver a strong fiscal 2026 and ongoing growth into fiscal 2027, expecting margins to rise further into F'27—albeit at a slower pace now that the bulk of a $25 million cost‑savings program has been realized. Key metrics cited: Q3 sales +3.3% YoY; normalized year‑to‑date revenue growth of 1.5–2% (adjusting for the LCBO strike); Q3 gross margin $45.5M (41.8% of revenue) vs 40.2% prior year and YTD margin 43.3% vs 40.4%; Q3 EBITDA $19.7M (+6% vs $18.5M) and YTD EBITDA $57.1M (+~16%); interest expense down 26% in Q3; net debt ~ $164M (from $182M at fiscal year‑end) with a rolling 12‑month debt/EBITDA of ~2.3x; inventory $156M (down from $170M). They also highlighted growth opportunities—Better‑for‑You wine segment growing ~60% YoY—and recent innovation like the national LayLow launch as drivers of the outlook.Andrew Peller A NV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 393.00M | 385.86M | 382.14M | 373.94M | 393.04M |
| Gross Profit | 127.41M | 140.27M | 132.10M | 129.88M | 146.38M |
| EBITDA | 45.93M | 36.89M | 34.84M | 47.77M | 63.72M |
| Net Income | 27.12M | -2.85M | -3.35M | 12.47M | 27.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 535.54M | 553.20M | 566.75M | 558.07M | 542.52M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.53M | 0.00 | -14.73M | 1.30M | 2.74M |
| Total Debt | 166.48M | 226.51M | 227.76M | 208.33M | 192.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 271.26M | 311.76M | 313.11M | 292.67M | 276.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 264.27M | 241.44M | 253.64M | 265.40M | 265.57M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.82M | 22.34M | -6.58M | -7.31M | 4.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 74.03M | 38.12M | 13.75M | 15.59M | 41.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.74M | -14.84M | -20.33M | -14.11M | -36.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.76M | -23.28M | 5.28M | -2.92M | -1.84M |
Andrew Peller A NV Technical Analysis
Positive
5.33
Price Trends
6.71
Positive
6.02
Positive
5.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.34
Positive
83.49
Negative
47.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADW.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.92, below the 50-day MA of 6.71, and below the 200-day MA of 5.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 83.49 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ADW.A.
Andrew Peller A NV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$445.49M | 13.40 | 17.68% | 6.34% | 12.97% | 27.34% | |
70 Outperform | C$381.54M | 12.65 | 10.59% | 4.71% | 0.87% | 142.20% | |
70 Outperform | C$445.49M | 13.40 | 15.23% | 6.57% | 12.97% | 27.34% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
43 Neutral | C$16.46M | -6.18 | -44.11% | ― | 4.41% | 92.71% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:ADW.A
Andrew Peller A NV
7.97
2.94
58.58%
TSE:BR
Big Rock Brewery
0.67
-0.34
-33.66%
TSE:CSW.A
Corby Spirit&Wine A
15.68
2.47
18.67%
TSE:CSW.B
Corby Spirit&Wn B NV
15.27
2.44
19.05%
TSE:DWS
Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits
0.14
-0.07
-34.15%
TSE:RUM
Rocky Mountain Liquor
0.07
-0.02
-22.22%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.