Andrew Peller A NV (ADW.A) AI Stock Analysis

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Andrew Peller A NV

(TSX:ADW.A)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:―

Andrew Peller A NV's strengths in revenue growth and cash flow management are noteworthy. However, profitability challenges and high leverage are significant concerns. The positive earnings call offsets some of these issues with growth in key areas. Technical analysis and valuation suggest caution, with the stock appearing overvalued and displaying bearish momentum. Overall, a balanced outlook with room for improvement in financial health is indicated.

Andrew Peller A NV (ADW.A) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$211.27M

Dividend Yield5.27%

Average Volume (3M)14.47K

Price to Earnings (P/E)39.9

Beta (1Y)0.54

Revenue Growth5.42%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryCA

Employees1,367

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength68

IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.18

Shares Outstanding35,311,493

10 Day Avg. Volume16,327

30 Day Avg. Volume14,466

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.22

Price to Book (P/B)0.86

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio8.48

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Andrew Peller A NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAndrew Peller Limited (ADW.A) is a leading producer and marketer of quality wines in Canada. The company operates in the beverage industry and has a diverse portfolio of well-known wine brands, including Peller Estates, Trius, Wayne Gretzky, Sandhill, and Thirty Bench. With a commitment to quality and innovation, Andrew Peller Limited focuses on producing wines that cater to a broad range of consumer preferences and price points.

How the Company Makes MoneyAndrew Peller Limited generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of wines. The company sells its products through various channels, including retail stores, restaurants, and direct-to-consumer sales via its own retail outlets and e-commerce platforms. Additionally, the company operates estate wineries that offer hospitality services, such as wine tours and tastings, which contribute to its revenue. Key revenue streams include domestic sales within Canada and export markets, with a focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing brand recognition. Strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors play a crucial role in reaching a wider audience and driving sales growth.

Andrew Peller A NV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: 5.92%|

Next Earnings Date:Jun 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects positive growth in revenue, EBITDA, and market share, bolstered by successful big-box retail expansion and improved margins. However, challenges remain with declines in traditional retail channels, trade uncertainties, and increased expenses.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue and EBITDA Growth

Sales in Q3 increased by $5.2 million or 5.2% year-over-year to $105.4 million, and EBITDA increased 40% to $18.5 million from $13.2 million last year.

Improved Margins

Gross margin in Q3 was $42.4 million, up 22% from the previous year, benefiting from cost savings and the Ontario BQA Support Program.

Market Share Gains

Andrew Peller Limited gained market share in total wine and VQA wine categories, maintaining strong positions for several brands.

Debt Reduction

Net debt decreased from $208.5 million to $175.4 million, with a reduction in debt-to-equity ratio from 0.86:1 to 0.74:1.

Big-Box Retail Expansion

Successful rollout and demand in big-box retail, with an expansion of distribution points by over 4,000 locations in Ontario.

Negative Updates

Decline in LCBO and Company-Owned Retail Stores

Anticipated declines in sales at LCBO and company-owned retail stores as consumers adjust to new distribution channels in Ontario.

Uncertainty from Trade Relations

Potential impact from trade conflicts between the U.S. and Canadian governments, including a 25% tariff on goods, although delayed by 30 days.

Challenges in BC Wine Production

Minimal harvest in Western Canada due to successive freeze events, affecting BC wine production and requiring government support.

Increased Selling and Administration Expenses

Selling and administration expenses increased by $2.3 million or 11% year-over-year, partly due to higher compensation and selling costs.

Company Guidance

During the Andrew Peller Limited Q3 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, management provided guidance highlighting strong year-over-year growth in several key metrics. The company reported a 5.2% increase in sales to $105.4 million, driven primarily by the rollout to big-box stores, with margins rising to $42.4 million, or 40.2% of sales, reflecting a 22% increase from the prior year. EBITDA saw a substantial 40% increase to $18.5 million, attributed to favorable margins and cost-saving initiatives. Inventory levels decreased to $167.9 million from $192.5 million, contributing to a reduction in net debt to $175.4 million. The company achieved a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74:1, with $92 million in available credit. Despite anticipated channel shifts and market changes in Ontario's retail landscape, Andrew Peller Limited remains focused on leveraging consumer-centric innovation and operational efficiencies to continue outperforming the market.

Andrew Peller A NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Andrew Peller A NV shows mixed financial performance. Revenue stability and cash flow management are strengths, but profitability issues and high leverage are concerns. Operational efficiency and debt management need improvement.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company shows stable revenue over the years with a slight increase in the most recent year. However, profitability is a concern with negative net income in recent years, indicating financial challenges. Gross profit margin is stable but lower EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect decreased operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals moderate financial health with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage, suggesting potential risk. Equity ratio is stable, showing a balanced asset distribution. However, decreasing stockholders' equity over the years is a negative sign.

Cash Flow

Positive

Positive growth in free cash flow is a strong indicator of financial resilience. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the cash flow is primarily driven by improved cash management rather than increased profitability. This suggests good cash flow management despite net income challenges.

TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
289.86M	385.86M	382.14M	373.94M	393.04M	382.31M
	Gross Profit
110.72M	140.27M	132.10M	129.88M	146.38M	156.19M
	EBIT
7.56M	18.42M	15.49M	17.84M	45.19M	45.41M
	EBITDA
31.11M	36.89M	34.84M	47.77M	63.72M	58.33M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
359.00K	-2.85M	-3.35M	12.47M	27.79M	23.49M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.87M	0.00	-14.73M	1.30M	2.74M	-17.82M
	Total Assets
540.58M	553.20M	566.75M	558.07M	542.52M	513.92M
	Total Debt
202.45M	226.51M	227.76M	208.33M	192.36M	183.06M
	Net Debt
194.58M	226.51M	242.49M	207.03M	189.62M	200.88M
	Total Liabilities
293.74M	311.76M	313.11M	292.67M	276.95M	268.40M
	Stockholders Equity
246.84M	241.44M	253.64M	265.40M	265.57M	245.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
19.71M	22.34M	-6.58M	-7.31M	4.58M	8.23M
	Operating Cash Flow
32.27M	38.12M	13.75M	15.59M	41.12M	31.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-13.02M	-14.84M	-20.33M	-14.11M	-36.54M	-23.31M
	Financing Cash Flow
-9.33M	-23.28M	5.28M	-2.92M	-1.84M	-8.23M

Andrew Peller A NV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.65

Price Trends

50DMA

4.52

Positive

100DMA

4.56

Positive

200DMA

4.24

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.04

Negative

RSI

57.21

Neutral

STOCH

62.22

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADW.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.53, above the 50-day MA of 4.52, and above the 200-day MA of 4.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ADW.A.

Andrew Peller A NV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HLF	78 Outperform	C$503.16M	6.55	14.49%	3.83%	-4.45%	90.27%
CSW.B	69 Neutral	C$387.59M	14.03	14.27%	7.01%	16.37%	25.61%
CSW.A	66 Neutral	C$387.59M	15.04	14.27%	6.54%	16.37%	25.61%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.88B	14.98	4.76%	203.76%	3.54%	-2.49%
ADW.A	60 Neutral	C$211.27M	39.95	1.98%	5.27%	5.42%	―
HBFG	58 Neutral	C$148.88M	―	-183.38%	―	100.08%	-22.44%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:ADW.A

Andrew Peller A NV

4.74

1.08

29.51%

TSE:HBFG

Happy Belly Food Group

1.13

0.52

85.25%

TSE:HLF

High Liner Foods

18.95

6.17

48.28%

TSE:CSW.A

Corby Spirit&Wine A

13.81

0.84

6.48%

TSE:CSW.B

Corby Spirit&Wn B NV

12.81

1.20

10.34%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.