AutoCanada (ACQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$397.03M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 41.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.60
• Revenue Growth: -26.93%
• EPS Growth: 84.17%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,550
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Dealerships
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 23,150,232
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 43,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 41,142
• PEG Ratio: -0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$24.18
• Price Target Upside: 40.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$5.01B

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: C$16.50 ▼(-3.79% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is held down primarily by a leveraged and volatile financial profile (thin, inconsistent profitability and high debt) and a clearly bearish technical trend (price below major DMAs with negative MACD). Earnings call updates add some offset from cost actions and Collision growth plus planned debt reduction, but valuation remains unattractive given the elevated P/E and no indicated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cost Transformation

Delivering ~$100M of planned annual savings materially lowers the company’s structural cost base. Sustained run-rate savings improve margin resilience through cycles, free cash for deleveraging or reinvestment, and increase operating leverage, making profits less sensitive to volume swings.

Collision Business Growth

A 19% YoY expansion in Collision, backed by OEM certifications and insurance referrals, strengthens recurring aftermarket revenue that is less cyclical than new-vehicle sales. This higher-margin, service-oriented segment diversifies earnings and supports steadier cash generation over time.

Proceeds for Deleveraging

Realizing ~$37M to date and targeting ~$130M total from U.S. disposals provides a tangible path to reduce leverage. Credible asset sales that lower net funded debt support balance sheet repair, reduce interest burden, and improve financial flexibility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Persistently elevated leverage (~4x debt-to-equity) constrains strategic flexibility in a cyclical retail sector. High debt amplifies earnings volatility risk, increases interest sensitivity, and limits the company’s ability to invest or withstand prolonged softness without material balance-sheet repair.

Revenue & Profit Volatility

Large swings from strong profits to a 2024 loss and only modest 2025 recovery signal business-model sensitivity to cycles. Such volatility undermines long-term planning, complicates capital allocation, and makes sustained margin improvement and consistent deleveraging more difficult.

Same-Store Weakness

Sharp same-store underperformance indicates execution or local-market demand issues that may persist beyond a single quarter. Weakness at the store level erodes core revenue drivers, limits scalability of fixed-cost reductions, and can prolong the recovery of margins and returns.

AutoCanada Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AutoCanada Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates franchised automobile dealerships. The company offers a range of automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles, vehicle leasing, vehicle parts, vehicle maintenance and collision repair services, extended service contracts, and vehicle protection and other after-market products. It also arranges financing and insurance for vehicle purchases by its customers through third-party finance and insurance sources. The company sells its vehicles under the Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, FIAT, Alfa Romeo, Chevrolet, GMC, Buick, Cadillac, Ford, Infiniti, Nissan, Hyundai, Subaru, Audi, Volkswagen, Kia, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, MINI, Volvo, Toyota, Lincoln, Porsche, and Honda brands. As of March 2, 2022, it operated 78 franchised dealerships in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick in Canada, as well as in Illinois, the United States. The company also offers used vehicles online. AutoCanada Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

AutoCanada generates revenue primarily through (1) new vehicle sales at franchised dealerships, where it earns retail margin on vehicle transactions; (2) used vehicle sales, capturing margin on pre-owned inventory and trade-ins and, in some cases, reconditioning value; (3) parts and service (after-sales), including maintenance, repairs, and parts sales, which typically provide recurring customer revenue beyond the initial vehicle purchase; and (4) collision repair and related body-shop services where offered. In addition, the company earns income from arranging vehicle financing and selling aftermarket products (e.g., extended warranties, protection products) through its dealerships’ finance and insurance (F&I) functions; specific product mix and contribution details are not available here and are therefore null. Key factors that influence earnings include vehicle supply and demand, consumer credit conditions, pricing and inventory management, dealership performance, and OEM franchise relationships that determine the brands it can sell and the incentives/programs available; specific partnership terms or OEM incentive details are not available here and are therefore null.

AutoCanada Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are pressured by high leverage and volatile profitability. Income statement trends show sharp revenue and margin swings (including a 2024 loss and only a small 2025 profit), while the balance sheet is a key constraint with persistently elevated debt-to-equity (~4x) and weakened returns. Cash flow improved in 2025 but has been inconsistent and offers limited near-term deleveraging capacity.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2021–2022, modest growth in 2023, a sharp decline in 2024, and a rebound in 2025. Profitability has also weakened materially versus earlier years—net results swung from solid profitability in 2021–2022 to a loss in 2024, then back to a small profit in 2025. Margins are thin for the business model and have compressed significantly from 2021–2022 levels, which makes earnings more sensitive to demand and pricing cycles.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and persistent, with debt-to-equity around ~4x across recent years, limiting flexibility in a cyclical industry. Equity has not grown meaningfully, while total debt remains elevated despite some reduction in 2025. Returns on equity have deteriorated from very strong levels in 2021–2022 to negative in 2024 and low in 2025, indicating the balance sheet is carrying substantial risk without consistently strong earnings to support it.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed: operating cash flow and free cash flow were strong in 2020–2022, weakened notably in 2024 (including slightly negative free cash flow), and improved again in 2025. Cash flow relative to debt is low in the more recent periods, implying limited internal capacity to de-lever quickly. While 2025 shows positive free cash flow, the sharp year-to-year swings point to working-capital and cycle sensitivity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.90B	5.35B	6.44B	6.04B	4.65B
Gross Profit	330.10M	882.28M	479.23M	1.04B	834.18M
EBITDA	178.34M	164.34M	217.30M	235.04M	309.87M
Net Income	16.03M	-68.23M	50.49M	85.44M	164.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.75B	3.01B	3.16B	2.86B	2.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	87.96M	67.34M	103.15M	108.30M	102.48M
Total Debt	1.89B	2.01B	2.23B	2.03B	1.45B
Total Liabilities	2.26B	2.51B	2.59B	2.37B	1.74B
Stockholders Equity	460.48M	468.03M	534.85M	457.90M	493.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	54.89M	-2.45M	40.02M	95.31M	78.37M
Operating Cash Flow	81.12M	31.63M	119.53M	147.97M	112.94M
Investing Cash Flow	47.99M	67.86M	-125.43M	-228.02M	-215.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-120.19M	-93.92M	183.60M	83.21M	97.00M

AutoCanada Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ACQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.47, below the 50-day MA of 25.42, and below the 200-day MA of 26.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.26 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ACQ.

AutoCanada Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XTC	71 Outperform	C$282.29M	13.48	6.05%	6.21%	-3.53%	-17.19%
LNR	69 Neutral	C$4.86B	8.51	4.01%	1.32%	-5.33%	-57.58%
MG	66 Neutral	$19.98B	17.79	6.73%	3.69%	0.66%	-0.61%
MRE	63 Neutral	C$631.52M	7.04	7.13%	1.93%	-7.25%	-143.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BYD	52 Neutral	C$5.35B	190.80	1.91%	0.28%	4.24%	-60.60%
ACQ	43 Neutral	C$397.03M	34.08	18.07%	―	-26.93%	84.17%

AutoCanada Corporate Events

AutoCanada Q4 Profitability Squeezed as Market Softens and Transformation Weighs

AutoCanada reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue from continuing operations of $1.12 billion, down 11.8% year over year, with gross profit, adjusted EBITDA and per-unit margins all declining amid softer demand and normalizing vehicle pricing. The company posted a small net loss from continuing operations and a narrower loss from discontinued operations, while its total net funded debt to Bank EBITDA ratio inched up to 3.44 times.

Management said results reflected a tougher market following the pull-forward impact of expiring Canadian EV tax credits and tariff-related policy changes, combined with affordability pressures and lower industry gross profit per unit. AutoCanada also cited temporary operational disruption from a major cost-transformation and leadership transition, having achieved about $115 million in annualized cost savings, and outlined 2026 priorities focused on stabilizing retail performance, expanding its collision business, and sustaining a lean cost structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ACQ) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AutoCanada stock, see the TSE:ACQ Stock Forecast page.

AutoCanada Sets March 18 Date to Unveil Q4 2025 Financial Results

AutoCanada plans to release its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 on March 18, 2026 after markets close. Management will host a same-day conference call and webcast at 4:00 p.m. Mountain Time to present prepared remarks and take questions from analysts, with both live and replay options available to the public.

The webcast will be accessible via the company’s investor relations website, and an audio replay will remain online for 90 days after the call. The announcement signals an upcoming update on AutoCanada’s performance at a time when it is reshaping its portfolio, including the previously disclosed decision to classify its U.S. operations as held for sale and treat them as discontinued operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ACQ) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AutoCanada stock, see the TSE:ACQ Stock Forecast page.

AutoCanada Confirms Samuel Cochrane as CEO to Drive Operational Overhaul

AutoCanada has appointed Samuel Cochrane as its Chief Executive Officer, confirming the leadership role he had held on an interim basis since late 2025 while also continuing as Interim Chief Financial Officer during the search for a permanent finance chief. The move signals the board’s confidence in his track record in public-company finance and his understanding of the business, as the company navigates a key phase focused on stabilizing its dealership operations and capitalizing on growth in its collision repair segment.

Under Cochrane’s leadership, the company is emphasizing operational discipline, simplified structures and faster decision-making at the store level to improve dealership performance and strengthen relationships with automakers. Management is framing the collision business as a growing and increasingly important contributor to results, while highlighting disciplined capital allocation, a customer-first culture, and support for frontline teams as central to AutoCanada’s strategy for long-term value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ACQ) stock is a Hold with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AutoCanada stock, see the TSE:ACQ Stock Forecast page.

AutoCanada Sells Chicago Toyota Dealership as Part of U.S. Exit Strategy

AutoCanada has completed the sale of Toyota of Lincoln Park in Chicago, one of the U.S. dealerships it has designated as discontinued operations, as part of its strategic exit from its U.S. Operations segment. The store generated approximately $64.7 million in sales and $1.0 million in net income in the 12 months ended September 30, 2025, and the company received about $11.2 million in cash for goodwill and fixed assets, excluding inventory and working capital, with the proceeds used to pay down its revolving credit facility, advancing its plan to deleverage and strengthen its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ACQ) stock is a Hold with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AutoCanada stock, see the TSE:ACQ Stock Forecast page.

AutoCanada Expands Edmonton Collision Network with Acquisition of Modern Autobody

AutoCanada has acquired Modern Autobody, a long-established Edmonton collision and refinish repair facility, in a move that expands its collision repair footprint and strengthens its luxury and electric vehicle certification coverage in the region. The strategically located shop, which holds an extensive suite of OEM certifications from brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Tesla, Porsche and Rivian, is expected to generate operational synergies with nearby AutoCanada collision centres and dealerships, while the absence of existing direct repair programs offers an immediate opportunity to build insurer partnerships, increase repair volumes and capture additional revenue through the company’s existing insurance relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ACQ) stock is a Hold with a C$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AutoCanada stock, see the TSE:ACQ Stock Forecast page.