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Sunoco LP (SUN)
NYSE:SUN
US Market

Sunoco (SUN) AI Stock Analysis

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SUSunoco
(NYSE:SUN)
77Outperform
Sunoco's overall score reflects its strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive technical indicators. The company has shown resilience despite sector challenges, with a solid growth outlook and strategic initiatives such as the NuStar acquisition. The main risks involve recent declines in specific segments, but the overall trajectory remains positive.
Positive Factors
Earnings and Financial Performance
SUN's 2025 EBITDA guidance and distribution growth target were above consensus, leading to expectations of a positive stock reaction.
Mergers and Acquisitions
SUN management is optimistic about merger and acquisition opportunities and its interest in expanding in Europe and the Caribbean.
Negative Factors
Operational Costs
Management expects operating expenses to be significantly higher than consensus estimates.

Sunoco (SUN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Sunoco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSunoco LP (SUN) is a leading transportation fuel provider in the United States, primarily engaged in the distribution of motor fuels to convenience stores, independent dealers, commercial customers, and distributors. Operating within the energy sector, Sunoco LP has a vast network of fuel distribution terminals and storage facilities that enable efficient fuel supply. The company is known for its Sunoco-branded retail outlets and is involved in the wholesale distribution of gasoline and diesel fuel.
How the Company Makes MoneySunoco LP generates revenue primarily through the wholesale distribution of motor fuels, including gasoline and diesel, to a wide range of customers such as convenience stores, independent retailers, and commercial clients. The company benefits from its extensive distribution network, which allows efficient fuel supply to various regions. Key revenue streams include fuel sales to both branded Sunoco outlets and unbranded customers, leveraging its logistics capabilities. Sunoco LP also earns from rental income through leasing real estate properties and storage facilities. Strategic partnerships with major oil companies and long-term supply agreements contribute significantly to its earnings, ensuring a stable and diversified revenue base.

Sunoco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sunoco demonstrates robust profitability with strong margins and a healthy equity position. Despite revenue volatility, the company's strategic debt management and efficient cash flow are commendable, though free cash flow growth has declined.
Income Statement
76
Positive
Sunoco's income statement reveals a strong gross profit margin of 9.2% and a net profit margin of 3.9%, indicating good profitability. The EBIT margin is 3.5% and the EBITDA margin is 4.5%, which are respectable for the industry. Revenue growth has been volatile, with a decline of 1.6% in the last year, but this follows a significant increase in previous years, suggesting potential for recovery.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 28.3%, which demonstrates a solid foundation. However, the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 is low, indicating a conservative use of debt. Return on equity is healthy at 21.5%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds. The company's balance sheet stability is generally favorable with some room for leveraging.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Sunoco demonstrates robust cash flow management with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.63 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.23. Despite a decrease in free cash flow growth by 46.8% over the past year, the company has maintained positive free cash flow, which is crucial for operations and growth.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
22.69B23.07B25.73B17.60B10.71B
Gross Profit
2.10B1.18B1.19B1.17B867.00M
EBIT
791.00M635.00M477.00M562.00M237.00M
EBITDA
1.03B825.00M877.00M894.00M602.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
874.00M311.00M397.00M446.00M212.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
94.00M29.00M82.00M25.00M97.00M
Total Assets
14.38B6.83B6.83B5.82B5.27B
Total Debt
515.00M4.11B4.12B3.79B3.67B
Net Debt
421.00M4.08B4.04B3.77B3.57B
Total Liabilities
10.31B5.85B5.89B5.00B4.63B
Stockholders Equity
4.07B978.00M942.00M811.00M632.00M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
205.00M385.00M375.00M369.00M378.00M
Operating Cash Flow
549.00M600.00M561.00M543.00M502.00M
Investing Cash Flow
477.00M-288.00M-464.00M-387.00M-120.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-961.00M-365.00M-40.00M-228.00M-306.00M

Sunoco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price56.81
Price Trends
50DMA
55.03
Positive
100DMA
53.42
Positive
200DMA
52.54
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.56
Positive
RSI
49.04
Neutral
STOCH
40.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 56.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.55, above the 50-day MA of 55.03, and above the 200-day MA of 52.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SUN.

Sunoco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SUSUN
77
Outperform
$8.69B9.4828.38%6.18%-1.63%80.11%
PSPSX
71
Outperform
$50.06B24.597.27%3.75%-2.81%-68.00%
MPMPC
67
Neutral
$43.00B13.6316.33%2.52%-6.70%-57.84%
VLVLO
63
Neutral
$38.35B14.1910.86%3.44%-10.35%-65.68%
57
Neutral
$8.34B5.35-5.98%7.29%0.20%-69.45%
CVCVI
55
Neutral
$1.84B263.650.90%11.07%-17.69%-99.09%
DKDK
47
Neutral
$923.95M-108.21%6.80%-28.68%-4373.94%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SUN
Sunoco
56.81
-2.38
-4.02%
CVI
CVR Energy
18.06
-13.66
-43.06%
DK
Delek US Holdings
14.26
-11.00
-43.55%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
137.55
-40.08
-22.56%
PSX
Phillips 66
126.18
-18.31
-12.67%
VLO
Valero Energy
126.85
-19.35
-13.24%

Sunoco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 11, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.26% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was largely positive, highlighting a record year for Sunoco with strong financial performance, successful acquisition integration, and positive outlook for 2025. However, there were some challenges in the fourth quarter, particularly in the fuel distribution and terminal segments.
Highlights
Record Annual Results
Sunoco reported a record year with adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion, representing a 62% increase compared to 2023.
Successful NuStar Acquisition
The NuStar acquisition closed in May 2024, contributing to a revised adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $1.51 billion to $1.57 billion, with $50 million in synergies.
Strong Liquidity Position
Sunoco ended 2024 with $1.3 billion of liquidity on its revolving credit facility and achieved a leverage target of 4.1 times within five months post-NuStar acquisition.
Growth in Distribution
Declared a $0.8865 per unit distribution, a 1.25% increase over last quarter, with a target of at least 5% distribution growth this year.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Confidence in meeting 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $1.9 to $1.95 billion, expecting continued distribution increases.
Lowlights
Fourth Quarter Fuel Distribution Decline
Fuel distribution segment adjusted EBITDA was $192 million, down from $253 million last quarter and $209 million in Q4 2023.
Decreased Margin in Fuel Distribution
Reported margin was 10.6 cents per gallon in Q4 2024, down from 12.8 cents per gallon last quarter and 11.8 cents per gallon in Q4 2023.
Terminal Segment Decline
Terminal segment adjusted EBITDA was $61 million, down from $70 million in the third quarter.
Company Guidance
During Sunoco LP's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company highlighted a record year with a significant increase in financial metrics. The fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was reported at $446 million, excluding $7 million in one-time transaction expenses. The partnership spent $74 million on growth capital and $58 million on maintenance capital, resulting in distributable cash flow adjusted of $261 million. The trailing twelve-month coverage ratio ended at 1.9 times. For the full year, Sunoco achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion, a 62% increase from 2023. The integration of NuStar assets contributed to raising the 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1.51 billion to $1.57 billion, with $50 million in synergies. The company declared a distribution increase of 1.25% to $0.8865 per unit and aims for at least 5% growth in distributions this year. Sunoco is confident in meeting its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.9 to $1.95 billion, supported by a strong liquidity position, with $1.3 billion remaining on the revolving credit facility, and a leverage ratio of 4.1 times.

Sunoco Corporate Events

Dividends
Sunoco Announces Increased Quarterly Cash Distribution
Positive
Jan 27, 2025

On January 27, 2025, Sunoco LP announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash distribution of $0.8865 per common unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, reflecting a 1.25% increase over the previous quarter. This marks the third consecutive annual increase in distribution, underscoring a strong long-term financial outlook and a path for continued multi-year distribution growth. The distribution will be paid on February 19, 2025, to unitholders of record as of February 7, 2025.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sunoco Reveals 2025 Financial Guidance at Conference
Neutral
Dec 9, 2024

Sunoco LP has unveiled its operational and financial guidance for 2025, available on their website, as part of an investor presentation. The announcement coincides with their participation in the Mizuho Power, Energy & Infrastructure Conference. Investors should note that while the guidance includes forward-looking statements, these are subject to numerous uncertainties and risks detailed in their SEC filings.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.