Sunoco (SUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.81B
• Dividend Yield: 6.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 428.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: -5.18%
• EPS Growth: -33.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,298
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 136,894,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 480,846
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 427,999
• PEG Ratio: -0.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.15
• 1Y Price Target: $65.67
• Price Target Upside: 2.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $40.70B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $69.00 ▲(8.17% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by improving but still mixed fundamentals: stronger 2025 revenue/cash flow offset by thin margins, declining net income, and elevated leverage. Technicals are notably constructive (strong uptrend with positive momentum), while valuation is balanced by a high P/E despite a strong dividend yield. Earnings-call guidance and integration-driven growth plans support the outlook, with execution (synergies/turnaround) and leverage as the main watch items.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sunoco’s materially higher 2025 operating cash flow and free cash flow demonstrate improved internal funding capacity. Strong absolute FCF supports maintenance and growth capex, distribution increases and debt paydown potential, providing durable financial flexibility if margins remain stable.

Scale & market position

The Parkland and TanQuid deals materially expand geographic reach and throughput, creating the largest independent fuel distribution footprint in the Americas. Greater scale improves purchasing power, terminal and pipeline utilization, and resilience across regional demand cycles, supporting sustainable top-line and margin opportunities.

Liquidity & capital plan

Substantial revolver capacity and explicit EBITDA guidance plus a disclosed annual M&A floor show disciplined capital allocation. This liquidity and clear plan allow execution of quick-return projects, targeted acquisitions and refinancing, bolstering the company’s ability to fund growth and sustain distributions over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Leverage near the 4x target and materially higher total debt raise refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks. High indebtedness constrains strategic flexibility, increases fixed obligations and reduces shock-absorption capacity if synergies or EBITDA undershoot, making long-term deleveraging a key execution item.

Thin, volatile margins

Despite revenue growth, net margins are low and volatile, limiting buffer for cost shocks or demand declines. Thin profitability reduces retained earnings and compresses cash conversion ratios, making distributions, reinvestment and debt reduction more reliant on sustained volume/margin improvements or successful synergy capture.

Execution & integration risk

A meaningful portion of 2026 upside depends on realizing Parkland synergies and smoothing refinery operations. Integration, channel optimization in new geographies and a planned 50-day refinery turnaround create execution risk; shortfalls would pressure EBITDA, distributable cash flow and the targeted distribution growth path.

Sunoco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sunoco LP, together with its subsidiaries, distributes and retails motor fuels in the United States. It operates in two segments, Fuel Distribution and Marketing, and All Other. The Fuel Distribution and Marketing segment purchases motor fuel from independent refiners and oil companies and supplies it to independently operated dealer stations, distributors and other consumer of motor fuel, and partnership operated stations, as well as to commission agent locations. The All Other segment operates retail stores that offer motor fuel, merchandise, foodservice, and other services that include credit card processing, car washes, lottery, automated teller machines, money orders, prepaid phone cards, and wireless services. It also leases and subleases real estate properties; and operates terminal facilities on the Hawaiian Islands. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 78 retail stores in Hawaii and New Jersey. Sunoco GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Susser Petroleum Partners LP and changed its name to Sunoco LP in October 2014. Sunoco LP was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Sunoco generates revenue primarily through the sale of motor fuels and convenience store merchandise. The company's revenue model includes wholesale fuel distribution to a large network of branded and unbranded retail outlets, which comprise a significant portion of its business. Additionally, Sunoco operates company-owned and franchise convenience stores that provide a diverse range of products, including food, beverages, and automotive supplies. Key revenue streams include: 1) Fuel sales to retail and commercial customers, both through company-operated stations and dealer-operated locations; 2) Merchandise sales from convenience stores; 3) Fuel supply agreements with third-party retailers; and 4) Transportation and logistics services related to fuel distribution. Strategic partnerships with various suppliers and retailers bolster its market presence and enhance revenue opportunities.

Sunoco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and cash flow improved in 2025 (higher operating and free cash flow), but profitability remains thin and volatile as net income fell despite higher sales. Balance-sheet risk is a key offset with elevated leverage and materially higher total debt in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded in 2025 (up ~15% YoY after modest declines in 2023–2024), showing improving top-line momentum. Profitability is positive but structurally thin for the industry: 2025 net margin was ~2.1% (down from ~3.2% in 2024) while EBITDA margin improved to ~6.4%. Net income fell in 2025 versus 2024 despite higher revenue, indicating margin pressure and a more volatile earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated: 2025 debt-to-equity is ~2.0x (still high, though improved versus 2020–2023 levels that were ~4–6x). Total debt increased materially in 2025 versus 2024, which raises financial risk even as equity also grew. Returns on equity are positive but cooled in 2025 (~6.6%) after stronger prior-year performance, suggesting less efficient profitability relative to the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025 with operating cash flow rising to ~$1.19B and free cash flow to ~$615M (strong growth versus 2024). However, cash conversion remains a watch item: free cash flow was only ~52% of net income in 2025 (better than 2024 but below the ~65–75% seen in 2020–2023). Operating cash flow relative to revenue is also low (~0.30% in 2025), implying tight cash efficiency despite higher absolute dollars.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.20B	22.69B	23.07B	25.73B	17.60B
Gross Profit	2.10B	1.73B	1.18B	1.19B	1.17B
EBITDA	1.82B	1.03B	829.00M	870.00M	887.00M
Net Income	527.00M	716.00M	311.00M	397.00M	446.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	28.36B	14.38B	6.85B	6.86B	5.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	891.00M	94.00M	29.00M	82.00M	25.00M
Total Debt	16.11B	8.00B	4.11B	4.12B	3.79B
Total Liabilities	20.35B	10.31B	5.87B	5.91B	5.00B
Stockholders Equity	8.01B	4.07B	978.00M	942.00M	811.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	615.00M	205.00M	385.00M	375.00M	369.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	549.00M	600.00M	561.00M	543.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.81B	477.00M	-288.00M	-464.00M	-387.00M
Financing Cash Flow	2.41B	-961.00M	-365.00M	-40.00M	-228.00M

Sunoco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 63.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.13, above the 50-day MA of 56.68, and above the 200-day MA of 52.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.83 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SUN.

Sunoco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGP	80 Outperform	$5.47B	10.49	18.26%	8.03%	-3.51%	3.75%
SUN	69 Neutral	$9.81B	27.96	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DK	62 Neutral	$2.47B	―	-6.81%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
DINO	62 Neutral	$9.70B	16.25	6.21%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PBF	54 Neutral	$4.60B	-26.88	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CVI	47 Neutral	$2.51B	92.81	3.77%	10.50%	-7.21%	135.72%

Sunoco Corporate Events

Sunoco Upsizes Private Senior Notes Offering for Refinancing

On February 26, 2026, Sunoco LP announced it had priced an upsized private offering of $1.2 billion in senior notes, split between $600 million of 5.375% notes due 2031 and $600 million of 5.625% notes due 2034, both priced at par. The deal, increased from an initial $1.0 billion target, is expected to close on March 9, 2026, subject to customary conditions.

Sunoco plans to use the proceeds primarily to redeem in full NuStar Logistics’ 6.000% senior notes due 2026 and its own 6.000% senior notes due 2027, with any remaining funds earmarked for general partnership purposes, including potential debt repayment. The move effectively refinances higher-coupon debt with longer-dated obligations and may temporarily reduce borrowings under the revolving credit facility, signaling an effort to optimize the capital structure and extend the company’s debt maturity profile without accessing the public bond markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On February 26, 2026, Sunoco LP announced a $1 billion private offering of senior notes, split between 2031 and 2034 maturities, aimed at refinancing higher-cost debt. The partnership plans to use proceeds, together with borrowings under its revolving credit facility, to redeem in full NuStar Logistics’ 6.000% senior notes due 2026 and Sunoco’s own 6.000% senior notes due 2027, with redemptions expected around March 9 and March 30, 2026, respectively, at par plus accrued interest.

In connection with the offering, Sunoco disclosed that as of February 23, 2026, it held $500 million in cash and cash equivalents, had about $338 million outstanding under its revolver and roughly $2.1 billion in remaining borrowing capacity. The partnership also furnished unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, giving investors additional visibility into its post-transaction capital structure and operating profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Lifts Distribution

On February 17, 2026, Sunoco LP and SunocoCorp LLC reported solid fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by fourth-quarter net income of $97 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $706 million excluding one-time transaction expenses and Distributable Cash Flow, as adjusted, of $442 million. Although full-year net income fell to $527 million from $866 million in 2024, Adjusted EBITDA surged to $2.05 billion and Distributable Cash Flow, as adjusted, rose to $1.38 billion, underscoring stronger cash generation.

Segment performance showed robust gains in fuel distribution, terminals and the new refinery segment, while pipeline systems remained steady, reflecting a diversified asset base. Sunoco completed the acquisition of Parkland Corporation on October 31, 2025 and closed the TanQuid acquisition in January 2026, expanding its footprint and infrastructure and ending 2025 at its long-term leverage target of about four times, while delivering an eighth straight year of growth in Distributable Cash Flow per common unit.

The partnership raised its quarterly distribution by 1.25% for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a fifth consecutive quarterly increase and reinforcing its capital allocation strategy centered on steady distribution growth. With long-term debt of about $13.4 billion, $2.5 billion in available liquidity and $651 million in 2025 capital spending skewed to growth projects, Sunoco LP appears positioned to integrate recent acquisitions, sustain infrastructure investment and support unitholder returns within its targeted leverage profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Finalizes Parkland Acquisition, Expands North American Footprint

On October 31, 2025, Sunoco LP, via SunocoCorp LLC, completed a previously announced strategic transaction to acquire all issued and outstanding common shares of Canada’s Parkland Corporation under a court-approved plan of arrangement, making Parkland an indirect wholly owned subsidiary and expanding Sunoco’s footprint in North American fuel distribution and retail. Following the closing, Sunoco filed an amended Current Report that supplements Parkland’s unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, and updated unaudited pro forma combined financial information, providing investors and other stakeholders with more detailed visibility into Parkland’s standalone performance and the combined entity’s capital structure, leverage and earnings profile after the acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.

Sunoco Issues 2026 Guidance and Capital Allocation Outlook

On January 6, 2026, Sunoco LP issued its 2026 guidance, projecting full-year adjusted EBITDA between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, underpinned by an expected $125 million in synergies from the Parkland acquisition, a planned 50-day maintenance turnaround at the Burnaby Refinery starting at the end of January, the anticipated closing of the TanQuid acquisition in the first quarter, and at least $600 million in growth capital expenditures alongside $400 million to $450 million of maintenance capex. The partnership outlined a capital allocation strategy that includes a multi-year pipeline of bolt-on acquisitions of at least $500 million annually, a return to its long-term leverage target of four times in 2026, a targeted distribution growth rate of at least 5% with quarterly increase announcements, equal dividend equivalents for SunocoCorp investors, and an expected rise in distributable cash flow per common unit for the ninth consecutive year, signaling continued balance-sheet discipline and income growth for unitholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUN) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sunoco stock, see the SUN Stock Forecast page.