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PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSE:PBF
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PBF Energy
(NYSE:PBF)
48Neutral
Positive Factors
Dividend Increase
PBF increased its dividend by 10% on the strength of its balance sheet and view of tightening refining markets.
Insurance Coverage
Most repair costs beyond a $30MM deductible will be covered by insurance, and business interruption insurance should significantly offset the financial loss.
Market Conditions
Global refining supply-demand is expected to tighten in 2025, which could benefit complex refiners with coastal operations as OPEC+ brings volumes back to the market.
Negative Factors
Debt Increase
PBF's net debt is estimated to increase by approximately $1 billion from 4Q24 to 4Q25.
Earnings Impact
The Martinez outage is estimated to impact PBF's earnings, though insurance should cover most of the financial loss.
Operational Challenges
The unfortunate fire at Martinez has delayed the planned turnaround and increases the uncertainty around near-term operating and financial performance.
PBF Energy (PBF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.68B
Dividend Yield7.31%
Average Volume (3M)3.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth-13.59%
EPS Growth-127.47%
CountryUS
Employees3,855
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.72
Shares Outstanding115,648,070
10 Day Avg. Volume3,990,092
30 Day Avg. Volume3,287,547
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.80
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.10Price Target Upside46.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPBF Energy Inc. is a leading independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oils, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States. The company operates through its refining and logistics segments, focusing on the production and distribution of high-quality fuel products. PBF Energy owns and manages refineries in several strategic locations across the country, enabling it to efficiently serve diverse markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyPBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, processes them into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants, and sells these products to wholesale and retail customers. PBF Energy's logistics segment also contributes to its revenue by providing transportation and storage services for crude oil and refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined products to various markets, leveraging strategic partnerships and contracts with suppliers and distributors to optimize pricing and supply chain efficiencies. Additionally, PBF Energy benefits from market conditions such as fluctuations in crude oil prices and refining margins, which can impact its profitability.
PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
PBF Energy faces considerable financial challenges, as reflected in its recent performance. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates fluctuating leverage and moderate stability. Cash flow challenges highlight the need for strategic cash management. Addressing these issues will be key to improving the company's financial standing in the volatile fossil fuel industry.Income Statement
PBF Energy has experienced significant fluctuations in its income statement, with a sharp decline in revenue and profitability in 2024 compared to prior years. The gross profit margin turned negative in 2024, indicating cost challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024. The absence of net income in 2024 and negative EBIT highlight the company's recent struggles with profitability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows mixed signals. While stockholders' equity remains relatively stable, the debt-to-equity ratio has been volatile, suggesting fluctuating leverage levels. The equity ratio indicates moderate financial stability, but the industry's capital-intensive nature poses inherent risks. The company's ability to maintain equity levels while managing debt will be crucial for future stability.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations has decreased significantly, indicating potential challenges in generating cash from core activities. Free cash flow growth has also been negative, reflecting capital expenditure pressures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates a disconnect in 2024 due to the absence of net income. Managing cash flow effectively will be critical for future financial health.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 33.12B | 38.32B | 46.83B | 27.25B | 15.12B | Gross Profit |
| -372.20M | 2.40B | 4.68B | 887.20M | -1.63B | EBIT |
| -699.00M | 2.95B | 4.15B | 597.20M | -1.42B | EBITDA |
| -2.40M | 3.52B | 4.31B | 1.11B | -510.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -533.80M | 2.14B | 2.88B | 315.50M | -1.33B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 536.10M | 1.78B | 2.20B | 1.34B | 1.61B | Total Assets |
| 12.70B | 14.39B | 13.55B | 11.64B | 10.50B | Total Debt |
| 2.30B | 2.04B | 2.64B | 5.01B | 5.58B | Net Debt |
| 1.77B | 260.70M | 438.30M | 3.67B | 3.97B | Total Liabilities |
| 7.02B | 7.76B | 8.49B | 9.11B | 8.30B | Stockholders Equity |
| 5.54B | 6.49B | 5.06B | 2.53B | 2.20B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 43.40M | 678.90M | 4.14B | 228.20M | -827.80M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 43.40M | 1.34B | 4.77B | 477.30M | -631.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.04B | -338.60M | -1.01B | -388.50M | -1.03B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -249.30M | -1.42B | -2.90B | -356.80M | 2.45B |
PBF Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
16.42
Price Trends
22.16
Negative
25.56
Negative
29.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.15
Negative
36.23
Neutral
15.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.02, below the 50-day MA of 22.16, and below the 200-day MA of 29.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBF.
PBF Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $37.90B | 12.05 | 16.33% | 2.93% | -6.70% | -57.85% | |
66 Neutral | $5.19B | 30.24 | 1.78% | 7.26% | -10.58% | -90.08% | |
65 Neutral | $39.38B | 19.34 | 7.27% | 4.76% | -2.81% | -68.00% | |
59 Neutral | $33.54B | 12.44 | 10.86% | 4.13% | -10.37% | -65.69% | |
57 Neutral | $7.68B | 4.29 | -3.52% | 6.80% | -0.14% | -64.60% | |
48 Neutral | $1.68B | ― | -8.87% | 7.31% | -13.59% | -127.47% | |
47 Neutral | $767.14M | ― | -108.21% | 8.79% | -28.68% | -4373.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PBF
PBF Energy
16.42
-40.68
-71.24%
DK
Delek US Holdings
13.11
-16.79
-56.15%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
28.61
-29.38
-50.66%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
131.42
-75.40
-36.46%
PSX
Phillips 66
103.13
-56.51
-35.40%
VLO
Valero Energy
115.90
-54.74
-32.08%
PBF Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -37.52% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed sentiment with a strong emphasis on PBF Energy's financial resilience and strategic cost-saving initiatives, while acknowledging significant challenges such as the Martinez refinery fire and financial losses in the fourth quarter.Highlights
Strong Financial Position
PBF Energy started 2024 with the strongest financial position in its history, maintaining an under-levered balance sheet that provides flexibility to weather challenging markets.
Business Improvement Initiatives
PBF Energy has launched the Refining Business Improvement Program targeting over $200 million in run rate cost savings by the end of 2025, focusing on energy usage, turnarounds, procurement practices, capital planning, and maintenance.
Shareholder Returns
PBF Energy returned approximately $60 million to shareholders in the fourth quarter through share repurchases and dividends, completing $1 billion in share repurchases since December 2022.
Constructive Market Outlook
The company expects a balanced global refining supply and product demand environment in 2025, with net capacity additions expected to match product demand growth.
Lowlights
Martinez Refinery Fire Incident
A fire occurred at the Martinez refinery during planned maintenance, leading to a complete shutdown of the refinery. The extent of the damage and the timeline for repairs are still being assessed.
Fourth Quarter Financial Loss
PBF Energy reported an adjusted net loss of $2.82 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $249.7 million for the fourth quarter, reflecting weak market conditions and poor crude differentials.
Renewable Diesel Production Challenges
The St. Bernard Renewables facility reported a $4.8 million loss in the fourth quarter, and first-quarter production is expected to decrease due to a planned catalyst change.
Company Guidance
During the call, PBF Energy provided guidance that reflects a challenging market environment, with a focus on achieving a $200 million run-rate cost savings by the end of 2025 through their Refining Business Improvement Program. This initiative targets areas such as energy usage and turnarounds, which represent about 30% to 50% of their overall savings goal. Despite reporting an adjusted net loss of $2.82 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $249.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, the company expects a constructive outlook for 2025, with refining capacity additions projected to be in the range of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day, aligning closely with the anticipated product demand growth of 750,000 barrels per day. Additionally, PBF Energy's financial strategy includes maintaining a strong balance sheet, which stood at approximately $921 million of net debt and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 16%. The company also highlighted its commitment to shareholder returns, having completed approximately $1 billion in share repurchases since December 2022, equating to over 17% of outstanding shares at the beginning of the program.PBF Energy Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
PBF Energy Announces Leadership Transition in 2025
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025
On March 10, 2025, PBF Energy announced the transition of Thomas J. Nimbley from Executive Chairman to non-executive Chairman of the Board, effective July 1, 2025, following his retirement from the executive role on June 30, 2025. Nimbley, who has been pivotal in the company’s growth from a start-up to a major independent refiner, will continue to serve on the Board, assuming his re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. This transition reflects PBF Energy’s strategic leadership continuity and acknowledges Nimbley’s significant contributions to the company’s expansion and market positioning.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.