Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSE:PBF
Top Page
PBF Energy
(NYSE:PBF)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(2.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance and deteriorated cash generation through the downcycle. Offsetting that, technicals show strong positive momentum, and the latest earnings call highlighted near-term catalysts (Martinez restart), sizable insurance recoveries, and meaningful cost-savings initiatives, though valuation support is limited given negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Heavy/sour crude exposure
PBF's structural ability to run heavy/sour crude is a durable competitive advantage: when sour differentials widen it produces sustained margin uplift. This feedstock optionality and refinery complexity drive multi‑hundred‑million dollar earnings sensitivity and resilience versus simple refiners.
RBI cost‑savings program
A large, multi‑year RBI program with realized savings materially improves structural cost and capital intensity. Achieved savings and a clear pipeline reduce operating leverage and improve margin floor, boosting medium‑term cashflow resilience even in weaker refining cycles.
Moderate leverage and ample liquidity
Net‑debt at ~28% and meaningful liquidity provide a durable buffer to fund restarts, capex, and RBI execution without immediate distress. This balance sheet posture supports dividend policy and operational flexibility through downcycles and restart-related spending.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow constrains internal funding for capex, debt reduction, and dividends. Over several quarters this increases reliance on external liquidity, elevates refinancing and covenant risk, and limits ability to weather extended weak refining margins.
Earnings cyclicality and revenue collapse
Refining is highly cyclical and PBF's recent sharp revenue and margin swings highlight volatile earnings power. This structural cyclicality makes multi‑period planning and sustained returns uncertain, raising the chance of earnings drawdowns during prolonged weak crack spreads.
RIN volatility & renewable margin pressure
Regulatory and RIN price volatility is a persistent structural headwind for refiners with renewable obligations. Elevated RIN costs and feedstock/tariff uncertainty compress renewable diesel economics and add recurring compliance volatility that reduces predictability of margins and cashflow.
PBF Energy (PBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.65B
Dividend Yield4.14%
Average Volume (3M)2.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth-15.35%
EPS Growth-81.94%
CountryUS
Employees3,855
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding116,926,810
10 Day Avg. Volume2,986,610
30 Day Avg. Volume2,868,918
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio-3.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-13.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda71.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.70Price Target Upside-27.01% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.51B
PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated six oil refineries and related assets. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyPBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, which it processes into a variety of refined products. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petrochemicals to wholesalers, retailers, and industrial customers. Additionally, PBF earns income from logistics services related to the transportation and storage of refined products. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and customers that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Economic factors such as crude oil prices, refining margins, and regulatory changes in the energy sector also significantly impact PBF's earnings.
PBF Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook driven by an imminent Martinez restart, sequential Q4 improvement (adjusted EBITDA $258M; adjusted EPS $0.49), large insurance recoveries ($894M in 2025), and substantial, realized RBI savings ($230M achieved, $350M targeted). Operational advantages from heavy/sour crude exposure and tight refining fundamentals (notably in California) were emphasized as durable tailwinds. Notable risks remain: Martinez rebuild costs and BI settlement timing, accounting adjustments (LCM inventory), renewable diesel margin pressure at SBR, RIN price volatility (~+100% year-over-year), and energy-price sensitivity (~$100M per $1/MMBtu). Overall, the positive operational and financial developments and clear near-term catalysts outweigh the outstanding uncertainties, supporting a constructive near-term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Martinez Restart Imminent
Construction completion this weekend with handoff to operations next week; methodical restart underway and expected to be fully operational in early March. Management emphasized industry-top quartile safety performance during rebuild and expects Martinez to contribute to a tighter California product market once online.
Fourth Quarter Financial Results (ex. special items)
Adjusted net income of $0.49 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $258,000,000 for Q4. Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $367,000,000 (included an ~ $80,000,000 working capital draw related to inventory moves and falling commodity prices).
Large Insurance Recoveries Received
Received a $394,000,000 unallocated insurance payment in Q4, bringing total 2025 insurance recoveries to $894,000,000 (net of deductibles/retention). Management expects further potential interim payments as claims are finalized.
Significant RBI (Refinery Business Improvement) Savings Achieved
Achieved $230,000,000 of annualized run-rate savings in 2025 (equivalent to ~$0.50/bbl or ~$160,000,000 reduction in OpEx vs 2024 benchmark) and $70,000,000 of reduced capital/turnaround expenditures. Identified an additional $120,000,000 of run-rate savings for a total expected $350,000,000 by year-end 2026. RBI program identified >1,300 initiatives and has implemented >500 to date (~38% implemented).
Procurement and Operational Efficiency Wins
Centrally led procurement initiative expected to deliver >$35,000,000 of annual savings. Energy efficiency and turnaround discipline cited as major drivers of OpEx and CapEx savings (turnaround man-hours up ~30% while costs up ~10% year-over-year in current heavy-turnaround cycle).
Operational Leverage to Heavy/Sour Crude Differentials
PBF processes ~55–60% medium/heavy sour barrels (approx. 200,000,000 barrels/year). Management stated a $1 improvement in relevant crude differentials can equate to roughly $200,000,000 of annual benefit to the business, and widening sour differentials (Venezuela barrels & OPEC+ taper) are a material tailwind.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Position
Ended Q4 with $528,000,000 cash, ~ $1,600,000,000 net debt, net debt-to-capital of 28%, and estimated liquidity of approximately $2,300,000,000 (cash + borrowing capacity under ABL at current commodity prices). Board approved regular quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share; cash dividends paid totaled $126,000,000 in 2025.
Renewable Diesel Production at SBR
St. Bernard Renewables (SBR) produced an average of 16,700 barrels per day of renewable diesel in Q4, providing a strategic hedge to RIN exposure and participation in the growing renewables market despite near-term margin headwinds.
Negative Updates
Martinez Incident Costs and Ongoing Uncertainty
Martinez-related special items include $41,000,000 incremental OpEx in Q4 (total $164,000,000 YTD) related to temporary equipment and fire-related non-capital expenses. Approximately $273,000,000 of Q4 Martinez-related capital expenditures were excluded from reported Q4 CapEx. Insurance recoveries are large but remain unallocated and timing/amount of business interruption (BI) recoveries remain uncertain.
Large Non-Cash / Accounting Impacts
Q4 included a $313,000,000 lower-of-cost-or-market (LCM) inventory adjustment and a $2,000,000 loss related to PBF’s 50% share of SBR’s LCM adjustment for the quarter. These special items materially impacted reported GAAP results and add volatility to near-term reported earnings.
SBR Earnings Pressure from Feedstock and Policy Volatility
PBF recorded a $21,000,000 loss related to its equity investment in SBR in Q4. While credit pricing improved, higher feedstock costs and tariffs/regulatory uncertainty in renewable fuels compressed margins in the quarter.
RINs Volatility and Increased Compliance Costs
RIN (Renewable Identification Number) prices have approximately doubled over the last ~13 months (~+100%), increasing compliance cost volatility. Management characterizes the RIN balance as a rolling working capital obligation, but higher RIN prices still pressure fuel economics and pricing dynamics.
Near-Term Cash Outflows and Heavy Turnaround Activity
Expect first-quarter CapEx and working capital outflows primarily related to Martinez restart and seasonal inventory builds. 2026 is a heavy turnaround year (higher man-hours and spend), causing lumpiness in CapEx and maintenance spend; management expects activity to normalize in 2027–2029.
Energy Cost Sensitivity and Inflation Risk
Management stated sensitivity of ~ $100,000,000 of incremental cost per $1/MMBtu increase in natural gas price, and natural gas assumptions for 2026 are higher than 2024, creating input-cost risk despite RBI savings being net of inflation assumptions.
Company Guidance
Management guided that Martinez construction will finish this weekend, the plant will be turned over to operations next week and the refinery is expected to be fully operational in early March, with Q1 CapEx and working‑capital outflows tied to the restart and normal seasonal inventory patterns; Torrance mechanical work is complete and in startup. They highlighted $230,000,000 of achieved 2025 RBI run‑rate savings (stated as $0.50/barrel or ~ $160,000,000 OpEx reduction vs. 2024), identified an incremental $120,000,000 of run‑rate savings for a $350,000,000 total expected by year‑end, cut capital/turnaround spend by $70,000,000, expect >$35,000,000/year from centralized procurement, and have >1,300 RBI initiatives (avg ~ $0.5M each) with >500 implemented. Key financial metrics noted: Q4 adjusted EPS $0.49, adjusted EBITDA $258,000,000, cash from operations $367,000,000 (including ~ $80,000,000 working‑capital draw), Q4 cash CapEx $124,000,000 (ex‑Martinez) and ~ $273,000,000 Martinez‑related CapEx in Q4, 2025 CapEx ex‑Martinez ~ $629,000,000; quarter‑end cash $528,000,000, net debt ~ $1,600,000,000 (net‑debt‑to‑cap 28%), and liquidity ~ $2,300,000,000; board approved a $0.275/share quarterly dividend and paid $126,000,000 in dividends in 2025. Other call metrics: SBR produced ~16,700 bpd renewable diesel in Q4, Q4 included a $394,000,000 insurance recovery (total 2025 recoveries $894,000,000), Q4 special Martinez OpEx was $41,000,000 ( $164,000,000 YTD), and management noted sensitivities of roughly $100,000,000 per $1/MMBtu change in natural gas and ~$200,000,000 per $1 move in crude differentials on an annual basis.PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials reflect a sharp downcycle: income statement profitability deteriorated into losses in 2024–2025 and cash flow turned negative with worsening free cash flow. The balance sheet is comparatively healthier with moderate leverage, but near-term earnings power and internal funding capacity are pressured.Income Statement
Results have deteriorated sharply from peak-cycle profitability in 2022–2023 to losses in 2024–2025. Revenue declined materially over the last two years (down ~14% in 2024 and ~72% in 2025), and profitability swung from solid positive margins in 2022–2023 to negative gross and net margins in 2024–2025. While the business can generate strong earnings in favorable refining conditions, the recent two-year reset highlights high cyclicality and weak near-term earnings power.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate and improved versus 2020–2021: debt-to-equity moved from very elevated levels (above 2–3x in 2020–2021) to ~0.3–0.5x in 2022–2025, with equity remaining sizable. Total debt rose in 2025, but overall capitalization still looks reasonable for the industry. The key weakness is the return profile: returns on equity turned negative in 2024–2025 after strong profitability in 2022–2023, reflecting earnings volatility rather than balance sheet stress.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation weakened significantly as the cycle turned. Operating cash flow was strong in 2022–2023 but fell to near breakeven in 2024 and turned negative in 2025, while free cash flow was negative in both 2024 and 2025 and worsened meaningfully in 2025. This points to tighter internally generated funding capacity in the near term and higher reliance on liquidity/financing if weak conditions persist.28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.33B | 33.12B | 38.32B | 46.83B | 27.25B |
| Gross Profit | -571.00M | -372.20M | 2.40B | 4.68B | 887.20M |
| EBITDA | -253.60M | -2.40M | 3.62B | 4.36B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | -158.50M | -533.80M | 2.14B | 2.88B | 231.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.02B | 12.70B | 14.39B | 13.55B | 11.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 527.90M | 536.10M | 1.78B | 2.20B | 1.34B |
| Total Debt | 2.90B | 2.31B | 2.04B | 2.64B | 5.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.57B | 7.02B | 7.76B | 8.49B | 9.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.32B | 5.54B | 6.49B | 4.93B | 1.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -783.20M | -347.50M | 678.90M | 4.14B | 228.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.00M | 43.40M | 1.34B | 4.77B | 477.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -480.20M | -1.04B | -338.60M | -1.01B | -388.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 550.00M | -250.70M | -1.42B | -2.90B | -356.80M |
PBF Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
44.80
Price Trends
32.67
Positive
32.68
Positive
28.50
Positive
Market Momentum
2.53
Negative
80.91
Negative
91.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.07, above the 50-day MA of 32.67, and above the 200-day MA of 28.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBF.
PBF Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $5.29B | 8.35 | 18.26% | 8.03% | -3.51% | 3.75% | |
71 Outperform | $2.24B | 4.84 | 27.33% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $2.45B | -78.97 | -6.81% | 3.42% | -22.37% | -27.22% | |
62 Neutral | $9.75B | 14.84 | 6.21% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
57 Neutral | $4.65B | -19.51 | -2.92% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $2.66B | 94.69 | 3.77% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
PBF
PBF Energy
45.66
25.46
126.05%
CVI
CVR Energy
27.08
8.73
47.57%
DK
Delek US Holdings
44.79
30.62
216.07%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
57.17
26.87
88.69%
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
4.92
2.33
89.89%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
49.97
37.03
286.17%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.