Sndl Inc. (SNDL)
NASDAQ:SNDL
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SNDL
(NASDAQ:SNDL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-36.44% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (stronger cash generation and a supportive balance sheet) and a generally positive earnings call focused on margin gains and efficiency initiatives. Offsetting these are still-incomplete profitability, weak-to-neutral technical trend signals, and limited valuation support due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity & Low Leverage
A debt-free capital structure with >$250M cash gives durable financial flexibility: funds store openings, funds repurchases, and absorbs retail volatility without new financing. This reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic M&A or restructuring over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Profitability Not Yet Fully Durable
Despite progress, the company remains marginally loss-making at the net level and operating profit is still slightly negative. Until sustained positive operating margins are achieved, equity value compounding and return on capital may remain constrained and sensitive to volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Liquidity & Low Leverage
A debt-free capital structure with >$250M cash gives durable financial flexibility: funds store openings, funds repurchases, and absorbs retail volatility without new financing. This reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic M&A or restructuring over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
SNDL (SNDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$396.58M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth1.76%
EPS Growth18.31%
CountryUS
Employees2,604
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding259,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,277,659
30 Day Avg. Volume1,324,297
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.44
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio9.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.75Price Target Upside101.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$984.14M
SNDL Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
SNDL Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and sale of cannabis products in Canada. The company operates through Cannabis Operations and Retail Operations segments. It engages in the cultivation, distribution, and sale of cannabis for the ...
How the Company Makes Money
SNDL generates revenue primarily through (1) cannabis retail sales via company-owned cannabis stores, where it earns money on the margin between the wholesale cost of cannabis products and the retail prices paid by consumers; (2) cannabis operatio...
SNDL Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial progress story: multiple record metrics (net revenue, gross profit, adjusted operating income milestones, and materially improved free cash flow) combined with strong balance sheet metrics (no debt, >$250M cash) and margin gains across retail segments. Those positives are tempered by near-term top-line softness (Q4 revenue declines), retail market saturation and consolidation, volatility and margin pressure in Cannabis Operations, and uncertainty tied to U.S. asset resolutions. On balance, the highlights—particularly margin expansion, cash generation, cost savings and a strong balance sheet—outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
Full-year 2025 net revenue of $946,000,000 (+2.8% YoY); gross profit growth of 7.6% YoY; gross margin expansion of ~120 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating income reached breakeven for the first time in company history and free cash flow more than doubled to $18,000,000.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Pressure and Market Slowdown
Q4 net revenue declined 2% YoY to $252,000,000, driven by market contractions in both liquor and cannabis retail (cannabis experienced a market decline in Q4). Management attributes softness to market saturation, promotional lapping, and lower traffic in late 2025 (notably November–December).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
Full-year 2025 net revenue of $946,000,000 (+2.8% YoY); gross profit growth of 7.6% YoY; gross margin expansion of ~120 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating income reached breakeven for the first time in company history and free cash flow more than doubled to $18,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided timing- and metric-driven guidance and near-term expectations: operationally it expects to complete ERP consolidation “days away,” finish the third and final phase of its corporate restructuring (which has already exceeded the committed $20.0M in annualized savings) and to report on the remaining One Centimeters Ontario store approvals by Q2; EU GMP certification is expected “sometime over the summer,” and the Parallel foreclosure is likely to be resolved in Q2 or shortly thereafter. Management reiterated a strong, flexible balance sheet (no debt and >$250.0M unrestricted cash at year-end 2025), continued use of its share repurchase program (15.1M shares repurchased since 2024, including 4.3M in the last 90 days), and disciplined capital deployment (capex up ~50% vs. 2024 to support new store openings — three cannabis and two Wine and Beyond/One and Beyond in Q4 — with a double‑digit pipeline under review). They reiterated seasonality in free cash flow (Q4 FCF >$10.0M; FY FCF $18.0M, more than double 2024), and signaled expectations for continued market headwinds (liquor declines of low‑ to mid‑single digits near term) but opportunity for consolidation and M&A while maintaining targets for growth and profitability (FY net revenue $946.0M, +2.8%; cannabis segments +11% vs. liquor -2.8%; FY gross margin +120 bps; Q4 net revenue $252.0M, -2% YoY; Q4 gross profit $70.2M, +2.1%; Q4 gross margin 27.8%, +110 bps; Q4 adjusted operating income ≈$13.0M).SNDL Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 946.40M | 920.45M | 909.01M | 712.20M | 56.13M |
| Gross Profit | 258.65M | 240.33M | 190.41M | 140.38M | -9.00M |
| EBITDA | 46.67M | -41.20M | -99.15M | -326.55M | -223.76M |
| Net Income | -15.77M | -94.80M | -172.66M | -335.11M | -226.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.34B | 1.35B | 1.47B | 1.56B | 1.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 273.17M | 248.89M | 201.64M | 311.76M | 649.03M |
| Total Debt | 170.10M | 152.27M | 167.03M | 169.83M | 33.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 234.96M | 215.89M | 243.82M | 231.69M | 98.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.10B | 1.13B | 1.21B | 1.31B | 1.33B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.66M | 43.90M | -24.58M | -17.57M | -159.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 74.24M | 54.91M | -16.65M | -6.71M | -155.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 12.54M | 17.76M | -24.82M | -230.16M | -496.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.24M | -49.36M | -43.08M | -41.79M | 1.15B |
SNDL Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.36
Price Trends
1.46
Negative
1.59
Negative
1.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
54.41
Neutral
79.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNDL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, above the 50-day MA of 1.46, and above the 200-day MA of 1.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SNDL.
SNDL Risk Analysis
SNDL disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SNDL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
SNDL Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $396.58M | -37.26 | -1.44% | ― | 1.76% | 18.31% | |
52 Neutral | C$289.22M | 44.94 | -7.78% | ― | 23.87% | -19.57% | |
49 Neutral | $810.01M | -6.11 | -92.82% | ― | 2.31% | -726.28% | |
48 Neutral | $8.18M | -10.73 | -40.66% | ― | -1.50% | 80.17% | |
40 Underperform | $2.38M | -0.71 | -93.87% | ― | -0.74% | 81.49% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SNDL
SNDL
1.53
0.18
13.33%
TSE:ACB
Aurora Cannabis
5.10
-0.91
-15.14%
YCBD
cbdMD
0.78
-0.94
-54.71%
TLRY
Tilray
6.95
2.19
46.07%
IMCC
IM Cannabis Corp
0.38
-1.11
-74.36%
SNDL Corporate Events
SNDL Sets March 12 Release Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, SNDL Inc. said it will publish its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, covering the period ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on March 12, 2026. The company will follow the release with a conference...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.