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SNDL (SNDL)
NASDAQ:SNDL

SNDL (SNDL) AI Stock Analysis

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SNDL

(NASDAQ:SNDL)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(22.95%Upside)
SNDL's overall stock score is driven primarily by its financial performance struggles, particularly in profitability, and a challenging valuation. The technical analysis indicates bearish market sentiment, while the earnings call provided some positive outlooks in the cannabis segment. However, these are offset by concerns in other areas, such as liquidity and declining segments.

SNDL (SNDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SNDL Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSNDL Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and sale of cannabis products in Canada. The company operates through Cannabis Operations and Retail Operations segments. It engages in the cultivation, distribution, and sale of cannabis for the adult-use markets; and private sale of recreational cannabis through corporate owned and franchised retail cannabis stores. The company also produces and distributes inhalable products, such as flower, pre-rolls, and vapes. It offers its products under the Top Leaf, Sundial Cannabis, Palmetto, and Grasslands brands. The company was formerly known as Sundial Growers Inc. and changed its name to SNDL Inc. in July 2022. SNDL Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneySNDL makes money through several key revenue streams. Primarily, the company generates revenue from the sale of its cannabis products across its retail network. This includes both direct sales to consumers through its branded retail stores and wholesale distribution to other retailers. Additionally, SNDL benefits from its cultivation operations, where it produces cannabis that is either sold as raw product or processed into various consumer goods. The company may also engage in partnerships or strategic acquisitions to enhance its market presence and expand its product offerings, contributing to its revenue growth.

SNDL Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -18.12%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted several positive developments, including record gross margins, significant growth in the cannabis segment, and improved free cash flow. However, concerns such as the SunStream portfolio loss, liquor retail revenue decline, and challenges in adjusted operating income were also noted. The positive elements, particularly in cannabis growth and strategic acquisitions, appear to outweigh the negatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gross Margin
Achieved a new all-time high gross margin record of 27.6%, despite lower revenue seasonality leverage.
Cannabis Segment Growth
Cannabis business showed a 16.8% growth, marking 13 consecutive quarters of year-on-year revenue gains.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Free cash flow improved by $5.3 million year-over-year, showing marginally negative at minus $1.1 million despite seasonality.
Cannabis Operations Revenue Surge
The Cannabis Operations segment posted a 53% revenue growth driven by the acquisition of Indiva and productivity improvements.
Strategic Investments and Acquisitions
Acquired a minority stake in High Tide and announced the acquisition of 32 cannabis retail doors from 1CM.
Operational and Efficiency Improvements
Productivity initiatives and efficiency improvements were executed well across all business areas.
Negative Updates
SunStream Portfolio Loss
Reported a $4.5 million loss from the SunStream portfolio due to negative valuation adjustments.
Liquor Retail Revenue Decline
Liquor Retail recorded a net revenue decline of 5.7% due to one less day in February and the shift in Easter store timing.
Adjusted Operating Income Challenge
Adjusted operating income was negative $9 million, impacted by SunStream portfolio adjustments and a swing of $13.6 million year-over-year.
Cannabis Retail Gross Margin Decline
Cannabis Retail gross margin declined by 40 basis points compared to the same period last year.
Company Guidance
During SNDL's First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company reported several key metrics indicating strong performance and strategic direction. The cannabis segment achieved a 16.8% revenue growth, contributing to a total net revenue of $205 million, up 3.6% year-over-year. SNDL also attained a record-high gross margin of 27.6% despite seasonal revenue dips, driven by improved operational efficiencies and synergies from the Indiva acquisition. However, free cash flow was slightly negative at minus $1.1 million. The company's Liquor Retail segment experienced a 5.7% revenue decline, while Cannabis Retail posted an 8.7% increase. The Board is evaluating SNDL's exposure to US cannabis enterprises and exchange listing status, potentially enabling broader North American operations. Overall, the company remains focused on growth, profitability, and enhancing its workforce, supported by strategic acquisitions and loyalty programs.

SNDL Financial Statement Overview

Summary
SNDL's financial statements show modest revenue growth and improved cash flow metrics, but profitability remains a challenge with consistent negative net income. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, providing financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement exhibits modest revenue growth of 0.78% TTM, but profitability remains a challenge with negative EBIT and net income. Gross profit margins are improving, reaching 26.58% TTM, which is a positive sign. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -11.53%, indicating ongoing profitability issues.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 83.87% TTM, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.13, suggesting manageable debt levels. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals positive free cash flow growth of 12.08% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive at -0.56, showing better cash flow management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting continued profitability issues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue927.61M920.45M909.01M712.20M56.13M60.92M
Gross Profit246.57M240.33M190.41M140.38M-6.99M-49.87M
EBITDA-48.77M-41.20M-99.15M-306.83M-127.41M-180.69M
Net Income-106.95M-94.80M-172.66M-372.43M-230.18M-255.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.31B1.35B1.47B1.56B1.42B294.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments224.34M248.89M201.64M311.76M649.03M60.38M
Total Debt147.95M152.27M167.03M169.83M33.47M1.44M
Total Liabilities212.07M215.89M243.82M231.69M98.13M25.18M
Stockholders Equity1.10B1.13B1.21B1.31B1.33B265.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow49.20M43.90M-24.58M-17.57M-159.23M-60.67M
Operating Cash Flow59.40M54.91M-16.65M-6.71M-155.44M-57.49M
Investing Cash Flow36.61M17.76M-24.82M-230.16M-496.28M-70.88M
Financing Cash Flow-64.10M-49.36M-43.08M-41.79M1.15B142.75M

SNDL Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.22
Price Trends
50DMA
1.33
Negative
100DMA
1.46
Negative
200DMA
1.71
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
35.57
Neutral
STOCH
8.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.29, below the 50-day MA of 1.33, and below the 200-day MA of 1.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SNDL.

SNDL Risk Analysis

SNDL disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SNDL reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

SNDL Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (69)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
¥228.25B14.587.64%2.72%9.09%8.36%
52
Neutral
$313.93M-9.20%-3.02%26.00%
47
Neutral
$12.72M-58.30%
44
Neutral
$403.85M-31.06%11.22%-108.58%
42
Neutral
$15.01M-336.65%-28.78%86.97%
40
Underperform
$7.75M-8.46%-9.22%89.90%
39
Underperform
$19.91M-201.88%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SNDL
SNDL
1.22
-0.70
-36.46%
YCBD
cbdMD
0.87
-3.75
-81.17%
TLRY
Tilray
0.39
-1.34
-77.46%
COSM
Cosmos Holdings
0.44
-0.24
-35.29%
FLGC
Flora Growth
0.66
-0.30
-31.25%
IXHL
Incannex Healthcare Limited Sponsored ADR
0.21
-2.45
-92.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 18, 2025