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Tilray (TLRY)
NASDAQ:TLRY
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Tilray
(NASDAQ:TLRY)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(1.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/12/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative ROE, and persistent negative free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly balanced by a more constructive earnings-call outlook (reaffirmed EBITDA guidance, cost savings progress, improved liquidity) while valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scale
Tilray has meaningfully scaled top-line revenue (~76% TTM and record quarterly revenue), which reflects durable market demand across cannabis, beverage and distribution channels. Sustained revenue growth provides capacity to invest in higher-margin segments and supports operational leverage as fixed costs are absorbed.
Distribution & International Growth
Strong distribution scale and faster international cannabis growth diversify revenue and reduce reliance on a single market. Expanding pharmacy distribution and larger wholesale channels create recurring B2B flows and higher-margin international exposures that are structurally more stable than spot retail sales.
Improved Liquidity & Structural Cost Cuts
A strengthened cash position and material, committed cost-savings (Project 420) improve runway and lower the structural cost base. Delivering multi‑year savings plus a net cash position reduces refinancing risk and provides durable flexibility to support strategic investment and margin recovery.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP Losses
Very large GAAP losses and deeply negative margins erode shareholder capital and limit the company's ability to reinvest. Until GAAP profitability is consistently achieved, ongoing losses will constrain strategic options, increase the probability of external funding needs, and pressure long-term returns.
Poor Cash Generation
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow indicate the business is not yet self-funding. This structural cash deficit requires continued external liquidity or asset sales, limits capacity for organic investment, and raises execution risk if improved cash conversion is not sustained.
Regulatory & Segment Execution Risk
Regulatory uncertainty (notably U.S. hemp-derived THC) and permit delays in key markets are structural risks that can remove addressable markets or restrict supply. Combined with persistent beverage segment underperformance, these factors threaten durable revenue and complicate long-term execution across jurisdictions.
Tilray (TLRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$916.91M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth2.31%
EPS Growth-726.28%
CountryUS
Employees2,650
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.41
Shares Outstanding116,506,910
10 Day Avg. Volume2,232,358
30 Day Avg. Volume2,931,285
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.34
P/FCF Ratio-2.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.61Price Target Upside22.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$864.39M
Tilray Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTilray Brands, Inc. engages in the research, cultivation, production, marketing, and distribution of medical cannabis products in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Cannabis Business, Distribution Business, Beverage Alcohol Business, and Wellness Business. It offers medical and adult-use cannabis products, including GMP-certified flowers, oils, vapes, edibles, and topicals; purchases and resells pharmaceutical and wellness products; and produces, markets, sells, and distributes beverage alcohol products, and hemp-based food and other wellness products. The company offers its products under the Tilray, Aphria, Broken Coast, Symbios, B!NGO, The Batch, P'tite Pof, Dubon, Good Supply, Solei, Chowie Wowie, Canaca, RIFF, SweetWater, Breckenridge Distillery, Alpine Beer Company, and Green Flash brands. It sells its products to retailers, wholesalers, patients, physicians, hospitals, pharmacies, researchers, and governments, as well as direct to consumers. The company was formerly known as Tilray, Inc. Tilray Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Leamington, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilray generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products in both the medical and recreational markets. Key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its own distribution channels and partnerships with licensed retailers. The company also engages in wholesale distribution to other cannabis companies and dispensaries. Additionally, Tilray has been expanding its presence in the global market by entering into strategic partnerships and joint ventures, such as collaborations with major alcohol brands and pharmaceutical companies, which provide further avenues for revenue generation. The company's investments in research and development of innovative products and its focus on international expansion are also significant contributors to its earnings.
Tilray Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 08, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple meaningful operational and financial improvements: record quarterly revenue, stronger international cannabis and distribution growth, improved margins in cannabis and distribution, a markedly stronger cash position and a significant reduction in operating cash burn and net loss year-over-year. Key execution risks remain, notably beverage segment underperformance, ongoing GAAP net losses, regulatory uncertainty (particularly U.S. hemp-derived THC) and permit/price pressure in parts of Europe. On balance, management emphasized concrete progress, cost savings, reaffirmed guidance and strategic readiness for regulatory shifts, while acknowledging areas still requiring work.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Reported record Q2 net revenue of $217.5M (CEO rounded to $218M), beating analyst expectations despite headwinds.
Profitability and Cash Operating Results
Adjusted EBITDA of $8.4M and positive adjusted cash operating income of $6M for the quarter; adjusted EPS loss of $0.02 reported.
Strong International Cannabis Growth
Global cannabis net revenue of $67.5M with international cannabis up 36% year-over-year and sequential growth of 51% to ~$20M, driven by higher-margin international markets.
Distribution (Tilray Pharma) Momentum
Distribution revenue of $85.3M, the largest quarter ever for the segment, increasing 26% year-over-year and 15% sequentially while improving gross margins.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Strengthened
Ended the quarter with $291.6M in cash and marketable securities, reduced debt by ~$4M in Q2 and moved from a net debt position to a net cash position of nearly $30M.
Material Improvement in Cash Flow and Net Loss
Cash flow used in operations improved to $8.5M from $40.7M (a $32.2M improvement); net loss narrowed to $43.5M, a 49% improvement year-over-year (from $85.3M).
Canadian Operational Highlights and Capacity Expansion
Highest quarterly Canadian shipment volume in two years with >5.5M units shipped; completed Cayuga outdoor harvest that increased cultivation capacity to ~200 metric tons annually (company referenced broader Canadian capability up to ~270 metric tons).
Progress on Cost Savings and Guidance Reaffirmed
Delivered $27M of annualized cost savings in H1 under Project 420, on track to $33M target; reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $62M–$72M.
Tilray Medical Scale and R&D Leadership
Tilray Medical run-rate expected ~ $150M annually; offers 200+ medical cannabis products, serves >500k registered patients and participated in 25+ clinical studies—positioned as science-driven global medical operator.
Margin Improvements in Key Segments
Overall gross profit $57.5M and gross margin 26%; cannabis gross margin improved to 39% from 35% a year ago (+4 percentage points); distribution gross margin rose to 13% from 12%; wellness margin improved to 32% from 31%.
Negative Updates
Beverage Segment Underperformance and Integration Challenges
Beverage net revenue of $50.1M faced category headwinds in craft beer and ongoing portfolio optimization; margin construction in beverage negatively impacted overall gross margin and management noted significant remaining work to complete turnarounds.
Adjusted EBITDA Slightly Lower Year-over-Year
Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $8.4M from $9.0M a year ago, indicating modest softness in consolidated operating EBITDA versus prior-year period.
Continued Net Loss Despite Improvement
Company remains in a GAAP net loss position of $43.5M for the quarter, albeit a 49% improvement year-over-year; ongoing losses remain a material issue until sustained profitability is achieved.
Regulatory and Permit Challenges
Ongoing permit and regulatory delays (noted in Portugal and during German transitions) and broad price compression in flower create execution and pricing headwinds in cannabis markets.
U.S. Hemp-Derived THC Regulatory Risk
Potential U.S. regulatory changes (intoxicating hemp bans) pose risk to the HDD THC business; management is lobbying but outcome uncertainty could lead to lost revenue and jobs.
Revenue Impact from Portfolio Rationalization
SKU rationalization and margin-focused initiatives (Project 420) in beverages depressed near-term revenue as low-margin SKUs were pulled or restructured, delaying top-line recovery.
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $62–$72 million and remains on track to deliver $33 million of annualized cost savings from Project 420 by Q4 FY2026 (having achieved $27 million of those savings in H1); they also expect Tilray Medical to approach a ~$150 million annual run rate and plan to triple Tilray Pharma’s pharmacy distribution footprint by adding roughly 3,000 pharmacies in FY2026. Operationally they’re redeploying supply to higher‑margin international markets after a record Q2 net revenue of $217.5 million (Q2 cannabis $67.5M, beverage $50.1M, distribution $85.3M, wellness $14.6M), Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $8.4M and adjusted cash operating income of $6M, while scaling cultivation capacity to ~200 metric tons annually and strengthening the balance sheet (cash & marketable securities $291.6M, net cash position ≈ $30M after reducing debt by ~ $4M).Tilray Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Despite strong recent revenue growth (~76% TTM), profitability and cash generation are very weak: net margin is deeply negative (~-271% TTM), ROE remains sharply negative, and operating/free cash flow are consistently negative, implying ongoing funding and execution risk. Balance sheet leverage is moderate, but the capital base has weakened over time.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up ~76% versus the prior annual period. However, profitability has deteriorated sharply: TTM net margin is deeply negative (about -271%) versus a much smaller loss in FY2024 (about -31%), indicating substantial costs/charges overwhelming gross profit. Gross margin is relatively steady (~28–29% in FY2024–TTM), but operating performance is extremely weak with very large operating losses, making the income statement the key pressure point.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears manageable relative to equity in the annual periods (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.11–0.22 from FY2021–FY2025), and total debt has trended down versus FY2021–FY2023 levels. That said, equity and total assets have declined materially since FY2022–FY2024, and returns on equity are consistently negative (TTM ROE roughly -155%), reflecting ongoing value erosion from losses. Overall: not highly levered, but weakening capital base and persistent losses raise balance-sheet risk over time.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and in most annual periods, and free cash flow is also consistently negative (TTM roughly -$64M; FY2025 roughly -$175M). While the cash burn in TTM is smaller than FY2025, free cash flow growth is sharply negative versus the prior period, pointing to continued funding needs. The business is not yet self-funding based on current operating cash flow trends.28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | May 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.17B | 1.13B | 1.07B | 844.72M | 792.12M | 619.67M |
| Gross Profit | 327.19M | 330.11M | 304.33M | 197.95M | 147.26M | 148.77M |
| EBITDA | -2.92B | -2.92B | -99.25M | -1.72B | -310.61M | -297.41M |
| Net Income | -2.95B | -3.00B | -333.80M | -1.96B | -601.05M | -443.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.93B | 2.90B | 5.91B | 5.92B | 6.87B | 6.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 407.29M | 351.78M | 354.98M | 604.16M | 524.29M | 488.47M |
| Total Debt | 446.52M | 451.09M | 527.75M | 794.89M | 786.36M | 938.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 771.26M | 860.49M | 1.22B | 1.44B | 1.27B | 1.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.21B | 2.07B | 4.69B | 4.47B | 5.55B | 4.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -94.48M | -174.98M | -81.96M | -17.37M | -266.39M | -100.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -38.72M | -129.81M | -42.11M | 10.65M | -223.45M | -53.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.61M | -64.11M | 174.88M | -384.04M | -27.14M | 55.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 142.03M | 183.20M | -102.45M | 94.50M | 161.60M | 150.09M |
Tilray Technical Analysis
Neutral
7.87
Price Trends
8.86
Negative
10.57
Negative
9.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
47.17
Neutral
76.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLRY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.65, below the 50-day MA of 8.86, and below the 200-day MA of 9.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TLRY.
Tilray Risk Analysis
Tilray disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilray reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tilray Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | C$1.39B | -108.28 | 3.34% | ― | 22.20% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $916.91M | -0.36 | -83.42% | ― | 2.31% | -726.28% | |
49 Neutral | $396.55M | -6.12 | -7.82% | ― | 1.76% | 18.31% | |
44 Neutral | $6.30M | -0.10 | -30.93% | ― | -26.84% | -0.16% | |
43 Neutral | $7.65M | -1.79 | ― | ― | -29.78% | 88.96% | |
40 Underperform | $3.57M | -0.87 | -93.87% | ― | -0.74% | 81.49% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TLRY
Tilray
7.87
1.04
15.18%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.