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Tilray (TLRY)
NASDAQ:TLRY

Tilray (TLRY) AI Stock Analysis

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Tilray

(NASDAQ:TLRY)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$0.50
▼(-7.41%Downside)
Tilray's overall stock score is influenced primarily by financial performance challenges and valuation concerns. While the earnings call provided some positive highlights with improvements in gross margins and international growth, significant net losses and operational inefficiencies weigh heavily on the score. Technical analysis offers a neutral view, and the lack of dividend yield limits valuation appeal.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Adj. EBITDA of $9M came in higher vs. estimates, driven by better-than-expected Canadian cannabis gross margins.
Operational Efficiency
Beverage Improvement Plans are back on track with internalized production and focus on core markets, resulting in significant cost savings.
Strategic Initiatives
Recent completion of capital investments in a facility allows better use of byproducts for vapes and infused pre-rolls, expected to improve Canadian adult-use trends.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
Competitive pressure in Canadian cannabis and the challenging craft beer category warrant a lower multiple.
Regulatory Environment
The unclear path to federal legalization of cannabis in the U.S. impacts future prospects.
Sales Outlook
Management lowered FY25 sales outlook by $50M due to SKU rationalization efforts.

Tilray (TLRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tilray Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilray Brands, Inc. engages in the research, cultivation, production, marketing, and distribution of medical cannabis products in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Cannabis Business, Distribution Business, Beverage Alcohol Business, and Wellness Business. It offers medical and adult-use cannabis products, including GMP-certified flowers, oils, vapes, edibles, and topicals; purchases and resells pharmaceutical and wellness products; and produces, markets, sells, and distributes beverage alcohol products, and hemp-based food and other wellness products. The company offers its products under the Tilray, Aphria, Broken Coast, Symbios, B!NGO, The Batch, P'tite Pof, Dubon, Good Supply, Solei, Chowie Wowie, Canaca, RIFF, SweetWater, Breckenridge Distillery, Alpine Beer Company, and Green Flash brands. It sells its products to retailers, wholesalers, patients, physicians, hospitals, pharmacies, researchers, and governments, as well as direct to consumers. The company was formerly known as Tilray, Inc. Tilray Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Leamington, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilray makes money primarily through the sale of cannabis and cannabis-derived products across various markets. Its key revenue streams include the medical cannabis sector, where it supplies products to patients and healthcare providers, and the adult-use or recreational cannabis sector, which caters to consumers seeking cannabis for personal enjoyment. Additionally, Tilray generates revenue through its hemp products, including hemp food and wellness products. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and acquisitions that expand its market reach and product offerings, contributing significantly to its earnings. Tilray's global distribution network and its investments in research and innovation further bolster its revenue-generating capabilities.

Tilray Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 08, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.90%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented both positive and negative aspects. While there were notable improvements in cannabis gross margins and international growth, significant challenges remain, particularly with net revenue decline and a substantial net loss due to non-cash impairment. The beverage segment showed mixed results with some areas of growth, but overall sales volumes faced challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Cannabis Gross Margin
Tilray achieved its highest cannabis gross margin in almost two years, increasing by eight hundred basis points year over year to reach 41%.
Significant International Growth
Quarter over quarter and year over year revenue growth was seen in several international markets including Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and Portugal. Medical cannabis sales in Germany grew significantly with flower sales increasing by 79% post-legalization.
Project 420 Cost Savings
Tilray increased its Project 420 cost savings target to $33 million, achieving $20.6 million on an annualized basis.
Beverage Segment Performance
Tilray Beverages generated $55.9 million in net revenue with an increased gross margin to 36% compared to 34% in the prior year quarter.
Strong Balance Sheet
Tilray reduced its net debt position to approximately $50 million, with cash and marketable securities totaling $248 million.
Negative Updates
Net Revenue Decline
Net revenue for the quarter was $185.8 million, down from $188.3 million in the previous year quarter. Adjusted net revenue was impacted by strategic initiatives reducing it by $13 million.
Significant Net Loss
Reported a net loss of $793.5 million for the quarter, compared to a net loss of $105 million in the prior year quarter, primarily due to a $700 million non-cash impairment.
Canadian Cannabis Revenue Impact
Strategic decisions to focus on margin and not revenue temporarily in the vape and infused pre-roll space resulted in a decrease in year-over-year revenue of approximately $4 million.
Challenges in the Beverage Segment
Tracking data indicates that sales and volumes for the craft beer brands are down about mid-teens in the third quarter.
Company Guidance
In its fiscal 2025 Q3 earnings call, Tilray Brands provided guidance highlighting a focus on profitability and operational efficiency across its diversified product lines. The company reported a net revenue of $186 million, or $193 million on a constant currency basis, with strategic decisions impacting revenue by about $13 million. Adjusted net revenue, accounting for these impacts, increased by 10% to $206 million. Tilray achieved a 5% increase in gross profit, and gross margins expanded by 200 basis points to 28%. The cannabis gross margin reached 41%, the highest in nearly two years, driven by international sales and strategic focus on profitable segments. Tilray's balance sheet remains robust, with cash and marketable securities totaling $248 million and net debt below one times EBITDA. The company revised its fiscal 2025 net revenue guidance to $850-$900 million, with adjustments for strategic initiatives and SKU rationalization.

Tilray Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tilray faces significant financial challenges with negative profitability indicators and cash flow issues, despite modest revenue growth. The balance sheet shows low leverage but declining equity and negative returns highlight ongoing difficulties.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Tilray's income statement shows significant challenges, with a negative net profit margin at -114.9% TTM, indicating high losses relative to revenue. Despite a slight revenue growth of 4.79% from the previous year, the company struggles with profitability as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin is at 28.57% TTM, indicating some efficiency in production but insufficient to cover operating costs.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, suggesting relatively low leverage, which is a positive sign. However, this is offset by a concerning drop in stockholders' equity over time. The equity ratio is 80.22% TTM, highlighting a strong equity position relative to assets. Nevertheless, the negative return on equity of -34.78% TTM reflects ongoing profitability issues.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow growth, indicating cash outflows continue to exceed inflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.05 TTM, suggesting operational inefficiencies. The company also exhibits a negative free cash flow to net income ratio, pointing to difficulties in generating cash relative to reported losses.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue826.66M788.94M627.12M628.37M513.09M391.00M
Gross Profit236.24M223.35M146.96M116.82M123.18M137.68M
EBITDA-648.68M-72.84M-889.52M-246.40M-218.36M-18.40M
Net Income-945.62M-244.98M-1.44B-434.13M-336.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.40B4.22B4.31B5.45B6.03B1.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments248.41M260.52M448.53M415.91M488.47M358.47M
Total Debt343.91M387.32M590.13M623.81M938.66M300.32M
Total Liabilities701.04M778.49M977.32M1.01B1.56B475.89M
Stockholders Equity2.73B3.44B3.32B4.40B4.46B1.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-81.23M-60.15M-12.89M-211.33M-83.59M
Operating Cash Flow-50.67M-30.91M7.91M-177.26M-44.72M
Investing Cash Flow-16.47M128.35M-285.11M-21.53M46.10M
Financing Cash Flow124.77M-75.19M70.16M128.20M124.31M125.40M

Tilray Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.54
Price Trends
50DMA
0.43
Positive
100DMA
0.56
Negative
200DMA
0.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
71.65
Negative
STOCH
93.45
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLRY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.41, above the 50-day MA of 0.43, and below the 200-day MA of 0.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.65 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TLRY.

Tilray Risk Analysis

Tilray disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilray reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilray Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$326.79M-9.20%-3.02%26.00%
49
Neutral
$559.24M-31.06%11.22%-108.58%
46
Neutral
C$194.28M-4.22-8.60%2.64%13.54%-1.44%
42
Neutral
$13.43M-336.65%-28.78%86.97%
40
Neutral
$6.00M-59.14%-33.10%71.37%
40
Underperform
$7.66M-8.46%-9.22%89.90%
$3.12M-1460.27%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TLRY
Tilray
0.54
-1.20
-68.97%
CPHI
China Pharma Holdings
1.84
-0.77
-29.50%
YCBD
cbdMD
0.86
-3.74
-81.30%
SNDL
SNDL
1.27
-0.70
-35.53%
FLGC
Flora Growth
0.60
-0.33
-35.48%
AKAN
Akanda Corp
1.37
-3.17
-69.82%

Tilray Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Tilray Completes Debt-for-Equity Exchange Transaction
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

Tilray Brands, Inc. has completed a private debt-for-equity exchange transaction with an unrelated party. The company issued over 12.5 million shares of its common stock in exchange for $5 million in principal amount of its Convertible Senior Notes due in 2027, leveraging an exemption under the Securities Act for this transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLRY) stock is a Hold with a $1.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tilray stock, see the TLRY Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsStock Split
Tilray Approves Reverse Stock Split Proposal
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Tilray Brands, Inc. held a special meeting of stockholders to vote on two proposals: an amendment for a reverse stock split and the adjournment of the meeting for further proxy solicitation if needed. Both proposals were approved, with the board retaining discretion on executing the reverse stock split, indicating a strategic move to potentially enhance the company’s stock market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLRY) stock is a Hold with a $1.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tilray stock, see the TLRY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025