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Tilray (TLRY)
NASDAQ:TLRY
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Tilray (TLRY) AI Stock Analysis

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TLRY

Tilray

(NASDAQ:TLRY)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(29.87% Upside)
Tilray's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, with significant losses and liquidity issues. Despite positive technical momentum, the negative valuation metrics and ongoing financial challenges weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
International Expansion
Tilray's international expansion, particularly in Germany, enhances its market position and diversifies revenue streams, supporting long-term growth.
Balance Sheet Strength
A strong balance sheet with low leverage and substantial cash reserves provides financial stability and flexibility for future investments.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth, driven by key segments, indicates robust demand and effective strategic execution, supporting long-term business prospects.
Negative Factors
Declining Profit Margins
Decreasing profit margins can pressure profitability, indicating potential challenges in cost management and pricing power in core segments.
Cash Flow Issues
Poor cash generation and liquidity issues may limit Tilray's ability to invest in growth initiatives and manage financial obligations effectively.
Permitting Delays
Regulatory delays in key markets can hinder expansion efforts and revenue growth, impacting Tilray's ability to capitalize on international opportunities.

Tilray (TLRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tilray Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilray Brands, Inc. engages in the research, cultivation, production, marketing, and distribution of medical cannabis products in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Cannabis Business, Distribution Business, Beverage Alcohol Business, and Wellness Business. It offers medical and adult-use cannabis products, including GMP-certified flowers, oils, vapes, edibles, and topicals; purchases and resells pharmaceutical and wellness products; and produces, markets, sells, and distributes beverage alcohol products, and hemp-based food and other wellness products. The company offers its products under the Tilray, Aphria, Broken Coast, Symbios, B!NGO, The Batch, P'tite Pof, Dubon, Good Supply, Solei, Chowie Wowie, Canaca, RIFF, SweetWater, Breckenridge Distillery, Alpine Beer Company, and Green Flash brands. It sells its products to retailers, wholesalers, patients, physicians, hospitals, pharmacies, researchers, and governments, as well as direct to consumers. The company was formerly known as Tilray, Inc. Tilray Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Leamington, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilray generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products, including dried flower, oils, and edibles, which are sold to both medical and recreational consumers. The company has established key revenue streams through its direct-to-consumer sales, partnerships with distributors and retailers, and international exports of medical cannabis products. Additionally, Tilray has formed strategic alliances with other companies in the cannabis and pharmaceutical sectors, which enhance its market reach and product offerings. The company's ongoing focus on research and development also positions it to capitalize on emerging trends in the cannabis market, contributing to its earnings potential.

Tilray Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 09, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced perspective with significant achievements in revenue growth and international expansion countered by challenges in the Beverage segment and permitting delays in Portugal.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Revenue
Tilray achieved a record net revenue of $210 million for Q1 fiscal year 2026, representing a 5% increase year-over-year.
Strengthened Balance Sheet
Reduced outstanding debt by $7.7 million and maintained a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.07x, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $265 million.
Growth in Cannabis Segment
Cannabis revenue grew 5% year-over-year to $65 million, with Canadian Adult-Use and International Cannabis business delivering 12% and 10% growth respectively.
Expansion in International Markets
International cannabis revenue grew 10% to $13.4 million, with strategic growth plans to triple the medical cannabis distribution footprint in Germany.
Beverage Business Turnaround
Project 420 resulted in $25 million in annual savings, with notable growth in brands like Shock Top, which saw a 49% increase in dollar sales in the Southeast.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Beverage Segment
Beverage revenue remained flat due to SKU rationalization and lower gross margins, with a decrease in gross margin to 38% from 41% last year.
Permitting Issues in Portugal
Delays in obtaining permits in Portugal affected the ability to ship cannabis to other countries, impacting international growth.
Lower Gross Margins
Overall gross margin declined to 27% from 30% due to lower margins in the Cannabis and Beverage segments.
Company Guidance
During the conference call for Tilray Brands' first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company reported a net income of $1.5 million with earnings per share of $0. They achieved a 5% increase in total revenue, reaching a record $210 million, driven by significant growth in their Canadian Adult-Use and International Cannabis business, which grew by 12% and 10%, respectively. The company also reduced its outstanding debt by $7.7 million, resulting in a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.07x, and maintained strong cash reserves with $265 million in cash and cash equivalents. Although the Beverage segment revenue remained flat, Tilray made strategic decisions to optimize their craft beer SKU portfolio, while the Wellness and Distribution segments saw growth of 3% and 9%, respectively. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, anticipating adjusted EBITDA between $62 million and $72 million.

Tilray Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tilray's financial performance is weak, with significant losses and declining revenue. The income statement shows negative net profit margins and revenue contraction. The balance sheet indicates low leverage but negative returns, and cash flow analysis reveals liquidity issues with negative cash flows.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Tilray's income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative net profit margins and declining revenue growth. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 28.77%, but the net profit margin is deeply negative at -278.12%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue growth is negative, suggesting a contraction in sales. Overall, the company is struggling with profitability and growth.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15 in the TTM period, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is not provided, but the available data suggests financial stability in terms of debt management, albeit with profitability concerns.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Cash flow analysis highlights significant issues, with negative operating and free cash flows. The TTM data shows a free cash flow growth rate of -31.63%, indicating worsening cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting poor cash conversion. Overall, the cash flow situation is concerning, with limited liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08B1.13B1.07B844.72M792.12M619.67M
Gross Profit311.03M330.11M304.33M197.95M147.26M148.77M
EBITDA-2.97B-2.92B-99.25M-1.72B-310.61M-297.41M
Net Income-3.01B-3.00B-333.80M-1.96B-601.05M-443.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.08B2.90B5.91B5.92B6.87B7.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments264.83M351.78M354.98M604.16M524.29M589.77M
Total Debt231.29M451.09M527.75M794.89M786.36M1.13B
Total Liabilities561.99M860.49M1.22B1.44B1.27B1.88B
Stockholders Equity1.54B2.07B4.69B4.47B5.55B5.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-119.70M-174.98M-81.96M-17.37M-266.39M-100.93M
Operating Cash Flow-83.01M-129.81M-42.11M10.65M-223.45M-53.99M
Investing Cash Flow28.48M-64.11M174.88M-384.04M-27.14M55.67M
Financing Cash Flow120.54M183.20M-102.45M94.50M161.60M150.09M

Tilray Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.54
Price Trends
50DMA
1.31
Positive
100DMA
0.91
Positive
200DMA
0.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Positive
RSI
51.33
Neutral
STOCH
11.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLRY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.55, above the 50-day MA of 1.31, and above the 200-day MA of 0.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLRY.

Tilray Risk Analysis

Tilray disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilray reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilray Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
59
Neutral
$638.35M-8.30%0.70%15.62%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
$1.89B-85.59%2.31%-726.17%
41
Neutral
$10.34M-36.94%2.17%88.34%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TLRY
Tilray
1.54
-0.03
-1.91%
SNDL
SNDL
2.38
0.37
18.41%
IMCC
IM Cannabis Corp
1.91
-0.16
-7.73%

Tilray Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Tilray Completes Debt-for-Equity Exchange Transaction
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

Tilray Brands, Inc. has completed a private debt-for-equity exchange transaction with an unrelated party. The company issued over 12.5 million shares of its common stock in exchange for $5 million in principal amount of its Convertible Senior Notes due in 2027, leveraging an exemption under the Securities Act for this transaction.

Shareholder MeetingsStock Split
Tilray Approves Reverse Stock Split Proposal
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Tilray Brands, Inc. held a special meeting of stockholders to vote on two proposals: an amendment for a reverse stock split and the adjournment of the meeting for further proxy solicitation if needed. Both proposals were approved, with the board retaining discretion on executing the reverse stock split, indicating a strategic move to potentially enhance the company’s stock market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 10, 2025