Semler Scientific (SMLR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $351.27M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: -25.28%
• EPS Growth: -172.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 79
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -6.74
• Shares Outstanding: 11,151,572
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 937,514
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,047,066
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.15
• 1Y Price Target: $71.00
• Price Target Upside: 125.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $31.00 ▼(-1.59%Downside)

Semler Scientific's overall stock score is 48, reflecting financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability, bearish technical indicators, and an unattractive valuation with a negative P/E ratio. Although their bitcoin strategy shows promise with positive corporate events, significant operational difficulties and financial risk factors dominate the outlook.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

The business is generating significant positive free cash flow now, and this is expected to continue.

Regulatory Approval

Semler is seeking to obtain a new 510(k) clearance from the FDA that would allow the Company to market a heart dysfunction product.

Treasury Strategy

The Company has added Bitcoin to its Treasury strategy, and it is clear management and the Board view Bitcoin as central to the future of Semler.

Negative Factors

Bitcoin Volatility

The inherent volatility of Bitcoin is viewed as a risk for investors.

Cryptocurrency Holdings

The Company had an unrealized gain of roughly $29M from BTC in the quarter and ended Q4 with roughly $9M of cash.

Regulatory Changes

Preliminary 4Q results again reflected some of the fallout from last year’s announcement of CMS’ decision to phase out risk payments for asymptomatic PAD testing over the next 3 years.

Semler Scientific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Semler Scientific, Inc. provides technology solutions to improve the clinical effectiveness and efficiency of healthcare providers in the United States. The company's products include QuantaFlo, a four-minute in-office blood flow test that enables healthcare providers to use blood flow measurements as part of their examinations of a patient's vascular condition. Its products serve cardiologists, internists, nephrologists, endocrinologists, podiatrists, and family practitioners, as well as healthcare insurance plans, integrated delivery networks, independent physician groups, and companies contracting with the healthcare industry, such as risk assessment groups. The company offers its products through salespersons and distributors. Semler Scientific, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Semler Scientific generates revenue primarily from the sale and leasing of its QuantaFlo product, which is widely used by primary care physicians, specialists, and other healthcare providers. The company employs a recurring revenue model, charging clients on a per-test basis or through subscription-style arrangements where providers pay a regular fee for access to the technology. This ensures a steady and predictable income stream. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with healthcare organizations, insurance companies, and other industry stakeholders to expand the reach and adoption of its products. Revenue is further supported by providing maintenance, support, and training services related to the QuantaFlo system.

Semler Scientific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Semler Scientific's financial statements present a mixed picture. The company faces revenue and profitability challenges, as evidenced by declining income metrics. The balance sheet shows strong equity but increased leverage, posing potential financial risks. Cash flow analysis highlights significant negative free cash flow driven by heavy capital expenditures, indicating strategic investment challenges.

Income Statement

The income statement shows mixed performance. The company experienced a significant drop in revenue in the TTM period compared to the previous year, with a revenue decrease from $56.29M to $49.23M, indicating a negative revenue growth rate of approximately -12.79%. The gross profit margin remains high but has declined slightly, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins have turned negative in the TTM period, primarily due to operating losses, reflecting declining profitability. Overall, the income performance suggests challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a strong equity base with stockholders' equity at $161.68M in the TTM period, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased significantly due to a rise in total debt to $96.09M, indicating higher leverage. The equity ratio remains solid, but the increased leverage poses potential risks if not managed effectively. Overall, the balance sheet is stable but indicates potential risk from increased debt levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates a concerning trend with negative free cash flow of -$172.79M in the TTM period, primarily due to substantial capital expenditures. The operating cash flow remains positive at $16.88M, but the negative free cash flow suggests that capital investments are not currently translating into financial returns. Additionally, the operating cash flow to net income ratio shows strain due to negative net income. The cash flow situation reflects challenges in cash management and strategic investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
49.23M	56.29M	68.18M	56.69M	53.03M	38.60M
	Gross Profit
44.77M	51.53M	61.20M	52.43M	46.91M	35.25M
	EBIT
-17.14M	20.93M	22.26M	17.20M	19.45M	15.96M
	EBITDA
-15.59M	21.51M	23.28M	17.79M	19.45M	15.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-29.88M	40.90M	20.58M	14.32M	17.22M	14.01M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
42.97M	14.92M	57.20M	43.09M	37.32M	22.08M
	Total Assets
70.26M	239.83M	78.06M	62.69M	50.67M	34.64M
	Total Debt
224.00K	70.00K	160.00K	245.00K	325.00K	332.00K
	Net Debt
-5.08M	-8.75M	-57.04M	-22.77M	-37.00M	-21.75M
	Total Liabilities
9.06M	9.08M	6.27M	7.02M	5.13M	4.85M
	Stockholders Equity
61.20M	230.75M	71.80M	55.68M	45.55M	29.79M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-172.79M	24.36M	20.50M	15.30M	15.23M	14.36M
	Operating Cash Flow
16.88M	24.41M	21.33M	17.46M	16.06M	15.42M
	Investing Cash Flow
-277.21M	-189.98M	18.40M	-26.84M	-825.00K	-1.31M
	Financing Cash Flow
207.32M	117.19M	-5.41M	-4.94M	13.00K	230.00K

Semler Scientific Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 31.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMLR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.20, below the 50-day MA of 35.72, and below the 200-day MA of 40.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.42 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMLR.

Semler Scientific Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLPT	61 Neutral	$375.64M	―	-76.21%	―	23.22%	9.54%
TCMD	60 Neutral	$240.62M	15.63	8.12%	―	5.96%	-43.83%
VREX	56 Neutral	$349.43M	―	-7.46%	―	-3.31%	-199.23%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.37B	3.35	-45.10%	2.79%	16.77%	-0.01%
SRDX	52 Neutral	$417.54M	―	-16.96%	―	-14.96%	-245.49%
SENS	49 Neutral	$388.46M	―	-161.19%	―	1.64%	16.02%
SMLR	48 Neutral	$351.27M	7.47	-24.94%	―	-25.28%	-172.20%

Semler Scientific Corporate Events

Semler Scientific Updates Bylaws for Governance Efficiency

On June 4, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc.’s board of directors approved and adopted its Fourth Amended and Restated Bylaws to align with the current Delaware General Corporation Law. This update reflects changes such as the removal of the requirement for a stockholder list during meetings and the elimination of restrictions on actions without meetings, potentially streamlining corporate governance processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Semler Scientific Acquires 185 Bitcoin for $20 Million

Semler Scientific has established a dashboard on its website to disclose information about its Bitcoin holdings and related financial metrics, aiming to provide transparency and comply with regulatory obligations. Between May 23 and June 3, 2025, the company acquired 185 Bitcoin for $20 million, bringing its total holdings to 4,449 Bitcoin, valued at $472.9 million, and reported a BTC Yield of 26.7% year-to-date, reflecting its strategy to enhance shareholder value through Bitcoin investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Semler Scientific’s Recent Bitcoin Acquisition and Stock Offering

Semler Scientific announced its recent financial activities, including an at-the-market offering program initiated on April 15, 2025, allowing the company to issue and sell up to $500 million of its common stock. By May 22, 2025, the company had raised approximately $114.8 million through this program. Additionally, between May 13 and May 22, 2025, Semler Scientific acquired 455 Bitcoin for $50 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 4,264, valued at $474.4 million as of May 22, 2025. The company reported a BTC Yield of 25.8% year-to-date, which it uses as a key performance indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Semler Scientific Appoints Natalie Brunell to Board

On May 15, 2025, Semler Scientific‘s Board of Directors appointed Ms. Natalie Brunell to fill a vacancy in Class II, effective immediately, and to serve on the Bitcoin Strategy Committee. Ms. Brunell received stock options as part of her compensation, and Semler Scientific entered into a standard indemnification agreement with her, ensuring protection against certain legal expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.