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Semler Scientific (SMLR)
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Semler Scientific (SMLR) AI Stock Analysis

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SMLR

Semler Scientific

(NASDAQ:SMLR)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(12.32% Upside)
Semler Scientific's overall stock score is driven by strong profitability margins and a stable balance sheet, despite operational inefficiencies and cash flow challenges. The stock's valuation is attractive, and strategic initiatives in Bitcoin and healthcare expansion provide growth potential. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and declining revenues pose risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Profitability Margins
The company's high gross and net profit margins indicate effective cost management and a strong ability to generate profits, which is crucial for long-term financial health.
Stable Balance Sheet
A stable balance sheet with low leverage risk enhances financial stability and provides flexibility for future investments and growth opportunities.
Healthcare Expansion Strategy
The expansion into larger healthcare markets through new products can drive future revenue growth and strengthen market position.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Declining revenues pose a risk to the company's growth prospects and may impact its ability to sustain profitability over the long term.
Operational Inefficiencies
Negative EBIT margin indicates challenges in operational efficiency, which can hinder profitability and require strategic adjustments to improve.
Cash Flow Challenges
Weak cash flow management can limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and meet financial obligations, affecting long-term viability.

Semler Scientific (SMLR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Semler Scientific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSemler Scientific (SMLR) is a medical technology company focused on developing innovative solutions for the healthcare sector, specifically in the area of diabetes management and cardiovascular health. The company is known for its proprietary software and diagnostic tools that assist healthcare providers in evaluating and managing patients' health conditions more effectively. Semler's core products include its advanced diagnostic devices that utilize machine learning algorithms to analyze patient data and provide actionable insights to clinicians.
How the Company Makes MoneySemler Scientific generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic devices and software solutions to healthcare providers, including hospitals and clinics. The company operates on a direct sales model, where it markets its products to end-users in the healthcare industry. Additionally, Semler may earn recurring revenue through subscription services associated with its software, as well as through partnerships with healthcare organizations that integrate its technology into their patient management systems. The company's ability to establish strategic partnerships with key players in the healthcare market further bolsters its revenue potential and market reach.

Semler Scientific Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in Bitcoin accumulation and financial performance, although the decline in healthcare revenues and operating losses presented challenges. The company's strategic initiatives in Bitcoin and healthcare expansion suggest optimism for future growth.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Bitcoin Holdings
During the second quarter of 2025, Semler Scientific acquired approximately $195 million of Bitcoin, holding a total of approximately $586 million worth of Bitcoin. This resulted in an unrealized gain of $110 million.
Strong Financial Performance
Semler Scientific reported a GAAP net income of $66.9 million or $5.04 per fully diluted share for the second quarter of 2025.
Expansion of Health Care Business
Plans to launch new products in larger markets through a subsidiary called CardioVanta, with focus areas in early detection of heart failure and cardiac arrhythmia.
Accretive Bitcoin Strategy
Since adopting the Bitcoin standard in May 2024, Semler has achieved a 300% positive Bitcoin yield, resulting in a BTC dollar gain of $195 million through July 31, 2025.
Negative Updates
Decline in Revenue
Total revenues in Q2 2025 were $8.2 million, down compared to the second quarter of 2024 due to decreased usage of Semler's device following the 2024 CMS rate announcement.
Operating Loss
Operating expenses for Q2 2025 were $10.3 million, leading to a loss from operations of $1.2 million.
Legal Expenses and DOJ Settlement
In Q2 2025, Semler incurred $0.5 million of legal expenses related to a DOJ settlement agreement.
Company Guidance
During the Semler Scientific Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company's dual-engine strategy focusing on Bitcoin and healthcare. Key metrics highlighted include the acquisition of approximately $2,723 Bitcoin in 2025, totaling a holding of 5,021 Bitcoin valued at $586 million, with unrealized gains of $110 million. The company aims to reach 10,000 Bitcoin by year-end 2025 and 105,000 by year-end 2027. Financially, Semler reported a GAAP net income of $66.9 million or $5.04 per fully diluted share, with a notable Bitcoin yield of 31%. The company also issued 4.1 million shares in Q2 under its ATM offering, generating $156.6 million in proceeds. In healthcare, despite headwinds affecting revenues, a record cash generation of $24 million was achieved in 2024. The company launched a subsidiary, CardioVanta, to focus on new healthcare products, aiming to unlock substantial value in larger markets.

Semler Scientific Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Semler Scientific shows strong profitability margins with a high gross profit margin and robust net profit margin. However, operational inefficiencies are evident with a negative EBIT margin and declining revenue. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but cash flow management issues and negative free cash flow growth pose liquidity concerns.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Semler Scientific's income statement shows a high gross profit margin of 90.8% TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the company faces challenges with a negative EBIT margin of -153.7% TTM, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The net profit margin is robust at 86.2% TTM, driven by non-operational factors. Revenue has declined by 12.7% TTM, which is a concern for future growth.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 TTM, suggesting conservative leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 17.2% TTM, indicating efficient use of equity. The equity ratio stands at 73.4% TTM, reflecting a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial stability with low leverage risk.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow growth of -32.1% TTM, highlighting cash management issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.34 TTM, indicating weak cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is -9.42 TTM, further emphasizing cash flow challenges. These factors suggest potential liquidity concerns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue42.98M56.29M68.18M56.69M53.03M38.60M
Gross Profit39.04M51.53M61.20M52.43M46.91M35.25M
EBITDA-22.89M21.51M23.28M17.79M19.45M15.96M
Net Income37.05M40.90M20.58M14.32M17.22M14.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets522.60M239.83M78.06M62.69M50.67M34.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.48M14.92M57.20M43.09M37.32M22.08M
Total Debt96.28M70.00K160.00K245.00K325.00K332.00K
Total Liabilities139.19M9.08M6.27M7.02M5.13M4.85M
Stockholders Equity383.41M230.75M71.80M55.68M45.55M29.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-117.31M24.36M20.50M15.30M15.23M14.36M
Operating Cash Flow12.46M24.41M21.33M17.46M16.06M15.42M
Investing Cash Flow-366.41M-189.98M18.40M-26.84M-825.00K-1.31M
Financing Cash Flow360.10M117.19M-5.41M-4.94M13.00K230.00K

Semler Scientific Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price27.60
Price Trends
50DMA
27.81
Negative
100DMA
32.57
Negative
200DMA
35.82
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.31
Negative
RSI
51.95
Neutral
STOCH
50.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMLR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.53, below the 50-day MA of 27.81, and below the 200-day MA of 35.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SMLR.

Semler Scientific Risk Analysis

Semler Scientific disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Semler Scientific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Semler Scientific Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$540.77M11.3716.04%-30.39%46.15%
52
Neutral
$489.70M-3.64-25.57%-1.36%-479.49%
52
Neutral
$590.74M-3.36%-2.18%-30.96%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
$444.41M-59.78%
47
Neutral
$426.57M-12.67%19.90%-57.90%
43
Neutral
$383.03M-15.36%-0.02%-1196.44%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMLR
Semler Scientific
27.60
-24.54
-47.07%
SRDX
SurModics
26.79
-11.69
-30.38%
VREX
Varex Imaging
11.97
-2.64
-18.07%
KIDS
OrthoPediatrics
17.01
-7.97
-31.91%
CTKB
Cytek Biosciences
4.62
-2.53
-35.38%
CBLL
Ceribell, Inc.
11.98
-16.92
-58.55%

Semler Scientific Corporate Events

Semler Scientific’s QuantaFlo HD Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Cardiovascular Diagnostics
Oct 22, 2025

Semler Scientific is currently conducting the QuantaFlo HD Clinical Validation Study, aimed at assessing cardiovascular function through innovative methods. The study’s primary objective is to validate the correlation between echocardiography-measured GLS values and blood flow responses during forced expiration, using the QuantaFlo HD device. This research holds significant potential for advancing cardiovascular diagnostics.

Product-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Semler Scientific Launches Bitcoin Holdings Dashboard
Neutral
Oct 3, 2025

Semler Scientific has launched a dashboard on its website to disclose information about its Bitcoin holdings, fulfilling its disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. This dashboard will provide key performance indicators and market data, encouraging investors to regularly review the updates for material information.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsPrivate Placements and Financing
Semler Scientific Secures $20M Loan from Coinbase
Negative
Sep 26, 2025

On April 15, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc. entered into a Master Loan Agreement with Coinbase Credit Inc., allowing it to borrow cash or digital assets, collateralized by Bitcoin. On September 25, 2025, Semler Sci borrowed $20 million from Coinbase Credit at a 10% interest rate, using Bitcoin as collateral, to settle a previous obligation with the U.S. Department of Justice.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Semler Scientific Announces Merger Agreement with Strive
Neutral
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc. entered into a Merger Agreement with Strive, Inc., a Nevada corporation. Under the agreement, a subsidiary of Strive will merge with Semler Sci, making it a wholly owned subsidiary of Strive. This merger, approved by both companies’ boards, aims to qualify as a reorganization under U.S. federal income tax laws. The transaction involves converting Semler Sci’s common stock into Strive’s Class A common stock at a specified exchange ratio. The merger is subject to customary closing conditions, including shareholder approvals and regulatory consents. The merger agreement includes provisions for termination fees and conditions under which the agreement can be terminated by either party.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Semler Scientific Announces Merger with Strive, Inc.
Positive
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Semler Scientific and Strive, Inc. announced a merger agreement where Strive will acquire Semler in an all-stock transaction. This merger, approved by both companies’ boards, is expected to enhance Strive’s position as a leading Bitcoin treasury company and expand Semler’s diagnostics business into preventative care. The transaction includes a significant premium for Semler’s stockholders and aims to drive shareholder value through innovative Bitcoin strategies and expanded healthcare services.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Semler Scientific Faces Lawsuit Amid Revenue Concerns
Negative
Sep 16, 2025

Semler Scientific has reported a decline in the usage of its QuantaFlo device due to changes in Medicare Advantage and Part D rates, with a significant customer planning to reduce its usage from October 1, 2025. This is expected to result in a substantial drop in fourth-quarter revenues for 2025. Additionally, the company faces a lawsuit filed on August 29, 2025, by a stockholder alleging violations of securities laws, which Semler Scientific intends to contest.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Semler Scientific’s Stockholder Meeting Approves Key Proposals
Neutral
Sep 5, 2025

On September 5, 2025, Semler Scientific held its annual meeting of stockholders where several key proposals were voted upon. Stockholders elected William H.C. Chang as a Class I Director and approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis. They also approved an amendment to increase the authorized shares of common stock from 50 million to 210 million. However, the proposal to authorize the issuance of 42 million shares of ‘blank-check’ preferred stock was not approved. Additionally, the selection of BDO USA, P.C. as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMLR) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semler Scientific stock, see the SMLR Stock Forecast page.

Semler Scientific’s Business at Risk: Potential Licensing Challenges with Third-Party Patents
Aug 6, 2025

Semler Scientific faces a significant business risk due to its potential reliance on third-party intellectual property for the development and commercialization of its vascular testing products. If a third party holds essential patent rights, Semler may need to secure licenses to use this technology. However, these licenses may not be available or could be offered on terms that are not commercially viable, posing a substantial threat to the company’s business operations and financial health.

Semler Scientific’s Earnings Call: Bitcoin Gains Amid Challenges
Aug 6, 2025

Semler Scientific’s recent earnings call painted a mixed picture with significant achievements in Bitcoin acquisitions and unrealized gains contributing to a robust net income. However, these positive developments were tempered by declines in healthcare revenue and operating losses, alongside legal expenses. The company’s dual focus on Bitcoin and healthcare presents both opportunities and challenges.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025