Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr2.95B
• Dividend Yield: 4.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 24.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.1
• Beta (1Y): <0.01
• Revenue Growth: 19.47%
• EPS Growth: 46.15%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 282
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 89,631,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,867
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,055
• PEG Ratio: 0.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr6.50B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: kr35.00 ▼(-1.13% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by improving revenue and cash flow, offset by increased leverage and historically volatile profitability. Technical indicators are generally weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and strong dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Re-acceleration

Re-accelerating revenue in 2025 indicates durable demand and effective distribution in core Nordic channels. Sustained top-line momentum supports scale economies, improves bargaining with suppliers and retailers, and increases the likelihood of consistent cash generation over the next 2–6 months.

Improving Cash Generation

Material improvement in operating and free cash flow (FCF 317M in 2025) enhances the firm's ability to fund operations, service debt and invest in brand initiatives. Strong cash conversion provides durable financial flexibility even if margins fluctuate.

Stable Monopoly Channel Access

A business model focused on listings with Nordic alcohol monopolies gives predictable channel access and recurring order opportunities. Success in tenders and listings is a structural advantage that supports steady revenue and shelf presence over time.

Negative Factors

Sharp Leverage Increase

A large step-up in debt materially raises refinancing and interest-service risk. With debt roughly 2.5x prior-year levels, the balance sheet is more sensitive to earnings volatility and could constrain investment or force costly liability management if cash flow weakens.

Volatile Profitability

Earnings and margins have swung meaningfully across reporting periods, reducing predictability of operating cash flow. Persistent margin volatility impairs long-term planning, undermines debt coverage reliability and raises execution risk for brand and distribution investments.

Procurement & FX Exposure

Heavy reliance on international suppliers exposes gross margins to commodity price swings, supplier concentration and currency moves. These structural input risks can depress margins and complicate forecasting, especially given tender-driven sales and fixed-price contract dynamics.

Viva Wine Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Viva Wine Group AB develops, produces, markets, imports, and supplies wines and spirits. It operates through four segments: Sweden, Nordics, E-commerce, and Other. It offers red, white, rosé, and sparkling wines under the Il Barone, Pietro di Campo, Casa Vinironia, Hope, Leva, and Ecologica brands, as well as under the partner brands, including Louis Bouillot, Cigarra, Amicone, and Pizzolato. The company sells its products through supermarkets, specialist stores, and B2C and B2B online sales channels. It serves consumers, wholesalers, hotels, and restaurants. The company operates in Sweden, Nordic countries, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. Viva Wine Group AB was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Viva Wine Group AB generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its wine products to wholesalers, retailers, and direct consumers. The company leverages its brand portfolio to target different market segments, allowing it to capture a wide customer base. Revenue is also enhanced through partnerships with distributors and participation in wine festivals and events, which help to increase brand visibility and drive sales. Additionally, VIVA may engage in strategic collaborations with other beverage companies or retailers to expand its reach and improve distribution efficiency, contributing positively to its overall earnings.

Viva Wine Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth re-accelerated in 2025 (+11.8%) and operating/free cash flow improved (FCF up to 317M), but profitability has been volatile versus 2021–2022 levels and the 2025 jump in total debt to 1.376B increases financial risk, making sustained cash generation more critical.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been solid and re-accelerated in 2025 (+11.8% vs. +5.8% in 2024), but profitability has been volatile. Net income has recovered from 2023 to 2025 (106M → 207M), yet it remains well below the 2021–2022 level (414M/254M). Margins also show sharp swings across years (e.g., net margin ~12.4% in 2021 vs. ~2.7% in 2023 and ~4.0% in 2024), indicating less consistent earnings quality and/or cost pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased meaningfully in 2025, with total debt rising to 1.376B (from 558M in 2024) alongside asset growth (5.0B vs. 3.713B). Earlier years show moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.34–0.53 from 2020–2024) and a fairly steady equity base (~1.6–1.8B since 2021), but the 2025 step-up in debt raises financial risk and reduces balance-sheet flexibility if profitability weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation looks relatively strong and improving. Operating cash flow increased from 212M (2023) to 245M (2024) to 324M (2025), and free cash flow rose to 317M in 2025 (+36.6%). Free cash flow has generally tracked net income well when provided (about 98% of net income in 2024; ~85% in 2023), though the history shows periods of volatility (notably weak free cash flow in 2021). Overall, cash conversion appears healthy recently, supporting reinvestment and debt service capacity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.50B	4.21B	3.98B	3.83B	3.33B
Gross Profit	284.00M	862.00M	248.00M	870.00M	783.00M
EBITDA	420.00M	445.00M	280.00M	496.00M	614.00M
Net Income	207.00M	170.00M	106.00M	254.00M	414.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.00B	3.71B	3.63B	3.90B	3.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	90.00M	31.00M	94.00M	339.00M	331.00M
Total Debt	1.38B	558.00M	617.00M	831.00M	876.00M
Total Liabilities	3.22B	1.98B	1.91B	2.04B	2.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.61B	1.66B	1.65B	1.77B	1.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	317.00M	241.00M	180.00M	281.00M	49.00M
Operating Cash Flow	324.00M	245.00M	212.00M	286.00M	158.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-585.00M	-51.00M	-35.00M	-5.00M	-1.59B
Financing Cash Flow	320.00M	-258.00M	-422.00M	-281.00M	1.71B

Viva Wine Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:VIVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.00, above the 50-day MA of 34.17, and below the 200-day MA of 37.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:VIVA.

Viva Wine Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLA.B	70 Outperform	kr15.17B	14.56	12.72%	2.74%	0.81%	57.02%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DUNI	62 Neutral	kr4.49B	15.85	9.65%	4.83%	3.79%	39.15%
VIVA	61 Neutral	kr2.95B	15.14	―	4.40%	19.47%	46.15%
MSON.B	58 Neutral	kr1.62B	9.34	-0.17%	2.34%	-2.95%	-112.90%
SCST	55 Neutral	kr8.31B	17.69	―	2.56%	7.37%	2.90%
HUMBLE	50 Neutral	kr3.16B	58.18	0.87%	―	5.99%	-38.16%

Viva Wine Group AB Corporate Events

Viva Wine Group lifts sales and expands European footprint with acquisitions

Viva Wine Group AB reported robust growth for 2025, with net sales up 30.5% to SEK 5.5 billion and adjusted EBITA rising 18.8%, supported by record results and strong cash flow despite a slight decline in full-year margins. Fourth-quarter sales jumped 48.5%, boosted by the acquisition of Delta Wines, which broadened its European B2B exposure, while earnings per share for the year climbed to SEK 2.32.

The company executed a series of strategic moves, including the purchase of Delta Wines and Sweden’s Vinguiden Nordic, a broadened shareholder base via a share issue, and an uplisting to Nasdaq Stockholm’s main market. Early 2026 saw a majority acquisition of Norway’s Alpha Brands in the fast-growing NoLo beverage category and a leadership reshuffle, while the board proposed a higher dividend, underscoring confidence in the group’s strengthened market position and growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VIVA) stock is a Hold with a SEK37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Wine Group AB stock, see the SE:VIVA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Wine Group Sets Webcast for Year-End 2025 Report

Viva Wine Group AB, a major European wine producer and distributor, serves monopoly markets, retail chains, restaurants and end consumers with branded and partner-label wines through a network of entrepreneurial operating companies. The group emphasises profitable growth via continuous enhancement of its customer offering and selective acquisitions, supported by a decentralised organisation that still captures synergies and scale economies across its platform.

The company announced it will publish its Year-End Report 2025 on Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 08:00 a.m. CET and will host a webcast and telephone conference the same day at 11:00 a.m. CET. CEO Emil Sallnäs and CFO/Deputy CEO Linn Gäfvert will present and comment on the results and take questions from analysts, investors and media, underscoring the group’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with capital markets and other stakeholders ahead of a key financial update.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VIVA) stock is a Hold with a SEK37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Wine Group AB stock, see the SE:VIVA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Wine Group Closes Majority Acquisition of Norway’s Alpha Brands

Viva Wine Group AB has completed the acquisition of a 60 percent stake in Norwegian beverage company Alpha Brands through its subsidiary Norwegian Beverage Group AS, paying an initial 33 million NOK in cash financed via existing credit facilities, with a performance-based earn-out structure. The deal strengthens Viva Wine Group’s presence in Norway and expands its footprint in the fast-growing no- and low-alcohol (“NoLo”) beverage category, with Alpha Brands to be consolidated from February 2026 within the group’s B2B segment, signaling a continued strategic push into alternative beverage segments and geographic diversification.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VIVA) stock is a Hold with a SEK37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Wine Group AB stock, see the SE:VIVA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Wine Group Buys Majority Stake in Norwegian NoLo Beverage Player Alpha Brands

Viva Wine Group AB, through its subsidiary Norwegian Beverage Group AS, has agreed to acquire a 60% stake in Norway’s Alpha Brands, an established importer of no- and low-alcohol beverages for the grocery retail sector, with an option to purchase the remaining 40% from management and current shareholders at a later date. The deal, valuing Alpha Brands at about NOK 55 million excluding any performance-based earn-out, is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 and contribute roughly NOK 130–150 million in net sales and NOK 10–15 million in EBITA during 2026, bolstering Viva’s presence in the Norwegian market and significantly expanding its portfolio in the rapidly growing “NoLo” category, which management views as strategically important across its key markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VIVA) stock is a Hold with a SEK37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Wine Group AB stock, see the SE:VIVA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Wine Group Elevates CFO Linn Gäfvert to Deputy CEO and Commercial Director

Viva Wine Group has strengthened its executive leadership by appointing long-serving CFO Linn Gäfvert as Deputy CEO and Commercial Director, effective immediately, while she continues as CFO until a successor is recruited. Gäfvert, who has been instrumental in the group’s financial development and strategic growth over nearly a decade, is expected to reinforce operational continuity and strategic execution alongside CEO Emil Sallnäs, while former Deputy CEO John Wistedt moves into a new role as Business Development Director, maintaining his position in the group management team.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VIVA) stock is a Hold with a SEK37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Wine Group AB stock, see the SE:VIVA Stock Forecast page.