Refine Group AB (REFINE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr34.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 205.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 0.8
• Beta (1Y): -1.08
• Revenue Growth: -41.68%
• EPS Growth: 65.38%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Services
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 148,487,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 206,151
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 205,626
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr357.30M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: kr0.24 ▲(3.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is held down mainly by weak financial performance—continued revenue contraction, negative margins, and renewed cash burn in 2025—despite leverage improving to zero debt. Technical indicators are moderately supportive and valuation looks cheap based on the very low P/E, partially offsetting the fundamental risks.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage — zero debt

Elimination of debt materially lowers financial risk and interest obligations, increasing financial flexibility. Over a multi-month horizon this reduces refinancing pressure, preserves cash for operations or restructuring, and strengthens the firm's ability to navigate continued top-line recovery.

Positive equity buffer

A positive equity base of SEK 95.9m provides a capital cushion to absorb losses and fund operational resets. This buffer supports continuity of client delivery and gives management time to execute turnaround actions without immediate solvency pressure, aiding medium-term stability.

Recurring and scalable service model

The mix includes recurring retainers and managed services alongside project work, which creates predictable revenue and higher customer lifetime value. That business mix is structurally scalable across digital channels and supports margin recovery if utilization and client retention improve.

Negative Factors

Sustained revenue decline

Two consecutive years of declining revenue signal deteriorating client demand or account losses, reducing operating leverage. Persistent top-line contraction undermines the ability to absorb fixed costs, hampers reinvestment, and raises the bar for achieving sustainable profitability over the next several months.

Negative margins and cash burn

Continued negative gross and operating profits combined with meaningful operating and free cash flow deficits point to an underlying margin problem. Ongoing cash burn pressures liquidity, may force cost-cutting or external funding, and limits ability to invest in client growth or technology.

Shrinking asset base and reduced equity

A materially smaller asset base and lower equity reflect heavy write-downs or disposals and reduced operating scale. This can constrain capacity to serve large clients, limits strategic optionality, and signals structural downsizing that may slow any medium-term recovery in revenue and market position.

Refine Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Refine Group AB (publ) operates resale marketplaces and develops a SaaS platform and logistics solution for brands companies in Sweden. The company operates through three business areas: Technology, Logistics, and Ecommerce. It offers Yaytrade, a fashion-tech e-commerce platform for consumers to buy second-hand, overstock, and samples; RE/WAY, an online consignment platform for men's and women's authenticated luxury clothing, bags, shoes, and accessories; and Spherio Solutions, a recommerce website and logistics for outgoing stock, samples, and second-hand items. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Refine Group primarily makes money by selling marketing and communication services to business customers. Revenue is generated through (1) project-based fees for defined deliverables such as campaigns, creative/content production, web/CRM/marketing-technology implementations, and advisory work; (2) recurring retainers or managed-service arrangements where Refine provides ongoing marketing operations (e.g., always-on performance marketing, SEO/SEM management, social media management, analytics/reporting) billed monthly; and (3) media-related income connected to planning and buying advertising where the group may earn service fees and/or margins tied to managing client media spend (exact fee structures vary by client contract and are not publicly detailed here). The company’s earnings are influenced by its ability to win and retain client accounts, scale delivery across its agency network/subsidiaries, and maintain utilization and gross margins on billable staff and production capacity. Specifics on the split of revenue streams, named key partnerships, and precise contract terms are not available in the provided context and are therefore null.

Refine Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak: revenue has declined for two straight years and profitability remains negative (gross and operating profit still negative in 2025). The balance sheet is a relative bright spot with debt reduced to zero and positive equity, but cash flow has turned to meaningful burn again in 2025 (negative operating and free cash flow), keeping financial quality pressured.

Income Statement

Performance remains weak and volatile. Revenue has declined for two straight years (2025: -17.1% vs. 2024: -6.4%) after growth in 2023 and 2022, pointing to an unstable top-line trajectory. Profitability is deeply challenged: 2024 and 2023 posted very large operating and net losses (net profit margin -67% in 2024 and -120% in 2023). 2025 shows a much smaller net loss (-2.7m) versus 2024 (-164.5m), but gross profit and operating profit are still negative in 2025, indicating the underlying earnings engine has not yet normalized.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet risk looks moderate and improving on leverage. Total debt fell to zero in 2025 from 35.1m in 2024 and 49.0m in 2023, which materially reduces financial risk. Equity is still positive (95.9m in 2025), providing a capital buffer, although it has come down from 217.3m in 2023 alongside heavy losses. Asset base has also shrunk (410.9m in 2023 to 145.0m in 2025), which could reflect restructuring but also signals a smaller operating footprint.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent and currently pressured. After positive operating and free cash flow in 2023 (operating cash flow 26.5m; free cash flow 26.3m), the company reverted to cash burn in 2024 and 2025 (2025 operating cash flow -16.6m; free cash flow -16.7m). While 2024 free cash flow was better than net income (free cash flow to net income 1.12x), the more recent step-up in cash outflows in 2025 is a key concern and raises questions about near-term funding needs if losses persist.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	126.52M	244.94M	261.60M	232.64M
Gross Profit	-75.68M	102.34M	58.30M	-12.22M
EBITDA	-9.16M	-34.91M	-12.55M	16.05M
Net Income	-2.71M	-164.48M	-313.00M	-16.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	145.05M	217.97M	410.91M	329.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.69M	11.63M	32.13M	3.30M
Total Debt	0.00	35.08M	48.98M	80.17M
Total Liabilities	48.51M	140.79M	191.74M	138.64M
Stockholders Equity	95.87M	76.50M	217.27M	189.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.69M	-5.57M	26.27M	-4.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-16.64M	-4.97M	26.46M	-2.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.64M	2.43M	6.60M	-76.68M
Financing Cash Flow	21.54M	-10.63M	-29.72M	46.85M

Refine Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:REFINE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, above the 50-day MA of 0.19, and below the 200-day MA of 0.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:REFINE.

Refine Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDON	56 Neutral	kr756.65M	-12.12	―	―	―	―
Sector *	55 Neutral	$13.29B	17.42	10.03%	0.93%	7.13%	-12.93%
REFINE	54 Neutral	kr34.45M	0.76	―	―	-41.68%	65.38%
OBAB	49 Neutral	kr320.03M	-37.08	―	―	27.27%	-1165.24%
BBROOM	42 Neutral	kr64.67M	-3.47	―	―	―	―