Refine Group AB (REFINE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr26.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 205.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.31
• Revenue Growth: -41.68%
• EPS Growth: 65.38%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Services
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 138,176,930
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 206,151
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 205,626
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 184.41
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr2.64B

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: kr0.21 ▼(-8.70% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance—large ongoing losses, declining TTM revenue, and a return to negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals also pressure the score with a clear downtrend (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation offers limited support because the company is loss-making (negative P/E) and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors

Recurring revenue & partnerships

A multi-stream model with subscription and maintenance revenue plus strategic collaborations supports recurring cash inflows and long-term customer relationships. This durability aids predictable revenues, cross-sell opportunities and scaling of services even if new sales slow.

Healthy gross and EBITDA margins

A ~45% gross margin and positive EBITDA (~12.5%) indicate underlying product economics and operational leverage. If revenue stabilizes, these margins provide a viable path to operating profitability and fund reinvestment in R&D and go-to-market activities.

Improved leverage (no reported debt)

Zero reported debt materially reduces financial risk and interest obligations, giving management more flexibility to prioritize growth or cover short-term cash needs without immediate refinancing pressure. This strengthens runway for strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and large net losses

Sustained revenue decline combined with a very large net loss and ~-84% net margin signals structural demand or execution issues. Continuing shrinkage in top line makes scaling fixed-cost investments hard and prolongs the path to sustainable profitability.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Reversion to cash burn and a steep free cash flow decline increases funding and execution risk. Persistent negative cash conversion may force dilutive equity raises or cutbacks in product and sales investment, impairing long-term competitive positioning.

Severely negative ROE and value erosion

A ~-159% ROE reflects deep equity erosion from repeated losses and poor capital returns. This undermines shareholder value, limits reinvestment capacity, and signals that existing business economics require structural change to restore profitable growth.

Refine Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Refine Group AB (publ) operates resale marketplaces and develops a SaaS platform and logistics solution for brands companies in Sweden. The company operates through three business areas: Technology, Logistics, and Ecommerce. It offers Yaytrade, a fashion-tech e-commerce platform for consumers to buy second-hand, overstock, and samples; RE/WAY, an online consignment platform for men's and women's authenticated luxury clothing, bags, shoes, and accessories; and Spherio Solutions, a recommerce website and logistics for outgoing stock, samples, and second-hand items. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Refine Group AB generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling software licenses, offering consulting services, and providing ongoing support and maintenance for its technology solutions. The company charges clients for the implementation of its process optimization tools and analytics platforms, which are tailored to meet specific industry needs. Additionally, REFINE engages in long-term partnerships with key players in various sectors, enabling it to secure recurring revenue from subscription-based services and maintenance contracts. The company also benefits from strategic collaborations and joint ventures that expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings.

Refine Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak: the income statement shows persistent losses with TTM revenue down ~16.8% and a very large net loss (net margin ~-84%). The balance sheet is mixed with improved leverage (TTM shows no reported debt) but severe value erosion (TTM ROE ~-159%). Cash flow has turned negative again in 2024/TTM after a strong 2023, increasing funding and execution risk.

Income Statement

Profitability remains very weak. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), revenue declined ~16.8% while the company reported a large net loss (net margin ~-84%) and deeply negative operating profit, despite a healthier gross margin (~45%) and positive EBITDA margin (~12.5%). Annual results show a pattern of sizable losses across 2022–2024, with some gross margin improvement from 2022 to later periods but no sustained conversion into operating or net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks mixed. Leverage has improved materially, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing zero reported debt (down from moderate debt-to-equity levels in prior years). However, equity returns are strongly negative (TTM ROE around -159%), indicating ongoing value erosion from losses. Asset and equity levels are still meaningful, but continued losses are a risk to balance sheet strength if not reversed.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has deteriorated. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative, with a steep decline in free cash flow versus the prior period (growth about -72.5%). While 2023 showed strong positive operating and free cash flow, the business reverted to cash burn in 2024 and TTM, raising concerns about funding needs and the durability of cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.70M	244.94M	261.60M	232.64M
Gross Profit	68.39M	102.34M	58.30M	-12.22M
EBITDA	19.09M	-34.91M	-12.55M	16.05M
Net Income	-128.96M	-164.48M	-313.00M	-16.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	156.79M	217.97M	410.91M	329.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.73M	11.63M	32.13M	3.30M
Total Debt	0.00	35.08M	48.98M	80.17M
Total Liabilities	70.63M	140.79M	191.74M	138.64M
Stockholders Equity	85.54M	76.50M	217.27M	189.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.39M	-5.57M	26.27M	-4.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.34M	-4.97M	26.46M	-2.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.24M	2.43M	6.60M	-76.68M
Financing Cash Flow	19.42M	-10.63M	-29.72M	46.85M

Refine Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:REFINE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.19, above the 50-day MA of 0.20, and below the 200-day MA of 0.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:REFINE.

Refine Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDON	58 Neutral	kr737.86M	-9.03	―	―	―	―
BBROOM	56 Neutral	kr77.73M	―	―	―	―	―
OBAB	56 Neutral	kr460.12M	-18.97	―	―	27.27%	-1165.24%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$13.29B	17.42	10.03%	0.93%	7.13%	-12.93%
REFINE	44 Neutral	kr26.05M	-0.10	―	―	-41.68%	65.38%