Intrum Justitia AB (INTRUM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr5.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 629.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: -6.65%
• EPS Growth: 95.09%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 9,042
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): -16.68
• Shares Outstanding: 136,245,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 588,903
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 629,191
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr54.00
• Price Target Upside: 42.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr16.69B

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: kr37.00 ▼(-2.27% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance driven by recurring losses and high leverage (declining equity and elevated debt-to-equity), partly offset by consistently positive free cash flow. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive (positive MACD and price above medium-term averages), while valuation offers limited support due to negative earnings (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Business model diversification

Intrum’s dual revenue engines — fee-for-service receivables management and risk-based portfolio investing — provide complementary cash flows. Fee services create recurring contractual revenue; portfolio investing offers higher risk-adjusted returns when priced correctly. This mix supports durable cash generation and optionality across credit cycles, reducing dependence on any single revenue source over the next several months.

Pan‑European scale and market reach

A broad European footprint and presence in both B2B and B2C collections gives Intrum scale advantages: diversified client base, cross‑market data for analytics, and the ability to centralize infrastructure. Scale lowers per‑unit collection costs, supports longer servicing contracts with banks and corporates, and creates a persistent pipeline for portfolio acquisitions, strengthening competitive position over time.

Consistent cash generation

Positive operating and free cash flow across multiple years, with improvement in 2025, indicates strong cash conversion even when accounting profits were negative. Reliable FCF supports ongoing operations, funds portfolio purchases or servicing without immediate equity raises, and gives the company a practical buffer to manage debt maturities and invest in efficiency improvements over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Heavy leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 4.1x and declining equity materially constrain financial flexibility. High leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, raising the chance that adverse macro shifts or weaker cash collections force costly refinancing or asset sales. Over the next several months this structural leverage amplifies downside risk and limits strategic optionality.

Recurring net losses

Persistent annual losses across multiple years indicate underlying profitability issues despite solid gross profit. Recurring negative net results erode equity, depress retained earnings, and complicate efforts to reinvest organically or reward shareholders. Continued losses increase reliance on external financing and make long-term improvement dependent on structural cost or revenue changes.

Weak revenue growth trend

A negative revenue growth rate (~-4.1%) shows limited organic top-line momentum and reliance on portfolio transactions to drive volume. Sustained revenue decline or stagnation constrains margin leverage, reduces ability to scale fixed-cost investments, and heightens reliance on non-recurring portfolio gains to meet targets, making sustainable growth more challenging over the medium term.

Intrum Justitia AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Intrum AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides credit management and financial services in Europe and internationally. The company offers credit optimization services, including credit monitoring, credit decision, factoring, and credit information services; and debt collection comprising surveillance and purchase services. It also provides payment services, such as reminder, payment guarantee, and VAT services; e-commerce services comprising credit management, payment solutions, and collection services; accounts receivables services that include invoicing, payment booking, monitoring of due dates, reminder, and collection services; and financing and portfolio investment services. Intrum AB (publ) was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Intrum primarily makes money through two broad models: (1) service-based credit management and (2) investing in credit/debt portfolios. 1) Service-based credit management (fee-for-service) - Intrum provides collection and receivables management services to clients such as banks, financial institutions, telecom operators, utilities, and other corporates. In this model, Intrum acts as an outsourced partner managing parts of a client’s receivables lifecycle (e.g., reminders, payment plans, late-stage collections, and sometimes legal enforcement depending on the jurisdiction and mandate). - Revenue is typically generated via agreed fees and/or performance-based compensation linked to collections outcomes. The underlying economics are driven by volumes of cases, success rates, and the efficiency of Intrum’s collection operations. 2) Portfolio investments (risk-based returns on purchased debt) - Intrum also purchases portfolios of delinquent receivables/NPLs (often from banks and other lenders) at a discount to their face value. After acquisition, Intrum seeks to recover payments over time using its collection and servicing infrastructure. - Revenue/profit in this segment comes from the difference between cash collections achieved and the purchase price plus associated servicing/financing costs. Returns depend on accurate pricing of portfolios, collection performance over time, and macro factors affecting debtor ability/willingness to repay. Key factors that contribute to earnings across both models - Scale and efficiency: A large pan-European platform and data/analytics can lower unit costs and improve collection performance. - Regulatory/legal environment: Collection outcomes and costs depend on country-specific consumer protection rules, court processes, and enforcement frameworks. - Economic cycle: Employment levels, interest rates, and household/business finances affect repayment behavior and portfolio performance. - Client partnerships: Long-term servicing agreements with financial institutions and corporates can provide recurring volumes for fee-based services and a pipeline of potential portfolio purchase opportunities. null

Intrum Justitia AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a clear support (positive operating and free cash flow across years, improving in 2025), but overall quality is weighed down by recurring net losses (negative in 2022–2025) and a highly leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity worsening to ~4.1x with declining equity), increasing refinancing and downside risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable over 2020–2025, with a sharp rebound in reported 2025 growth after a weak 2024. Profitability, however, is inconsistent: net results have been negative in four of the last five annual periods (2022–2025), despite generally solid gross profit levels. Operating performance improved from the severe 2022 trough, but earnings volatility and recurring losses remain the key drag on quality.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is heavily levered, with debt-to-equity consistently elevated and worsening again in 2025 (roughly 4.1x). Equity has also trended down meaningfully from 2021 to 2025, which reduces financial flexibility. Returns on equity are negative in most years (2022–2025), underscoring that the current capital structure is not translating into shareholder profitability and leaves the company more exposed to refinancing and downturn risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across all years shown, including during loss-making periods, and free cash flow improved in 2025 after a weaker 2024. That said, cash flow coverage of debt is only moderate and was particularly weak in 2024, pointing to ongoing balance-sheet pressure despite healthy cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.05B	18.03B	17.70B	19.13B	17.79B
Gross Profit	11.98B	7.96B	8.30B	10.12B	8.23B
EBITDA	5.46B	4.70B	4.43B	2.48B	7.93B
Net Income	-1.43B	-3.70B	-187.00M	-4.47B	3.13B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	65.47B	77.54B	90.21B	88.71B	88.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.57B	2.39B	3.62B	3.43B	4.55B
Total Debt	43.99B	51.41B	60.48B	57.23B	53.31B
Total Liabilities	52.69B	62.07B	71.28B	67.51B	64.22B
Stockholders Equity	10.85B	13.39B	16.75B	18.54B	21.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.54B	3.83B	4.96B	4.63B	9.71B
Operating Cash Flow	4.57B	4.42B	5.11B	4.99B	10.04B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.56B	9.20B	-2.56B	-1.63B	-8.01B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.46B	-15.29B	-2.26B	-4.88B	401.00M

Intrum Justitia AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:INTRUM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.02, below the 50-day MA of 43.67, and below the 200-day MA of 47.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:INTRUM.

Intrum Justitia AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TFBANK	78 Outperform	kr9.96B	15.87	26.88%	―	15.59%	24.31%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HOFI	62 Neutral	kr12.49B	8.66	17.97%	1.78%	19.81%	5.77%
NORION	54 Neutral	kr10.53B	9.63	―	―	0.78%	13.82%
INTRUM	48 Neutral	kr5.12B	-3.46	-11.59%	―	-6.65%	95.09%

Intrum Justitia AB Corporate Events

Intrum summons shareholders to 22 April 2026 AGM in Stockholm

Intrum AB has convened its shareholders to an Annual General Meeting to be held on 22 April 2026 in central Stockholm, setting out the formal requirements for registration, attendance, and proxy representation. The notice details procedures for shareholders of record and those holding shares via nominees, clarifies the handling of personal data in connection with meeting administration, and outlines the initial items on the meeting agenda, underscoring the company’s adherence to Swedish corporate governance and shareholder rights provisions.

Shareholders must be registered in the Euroclear Sweden share register by 14 April 2026 and confirm attendance by 16 April 2026, with specific rules for voting rights registration for nominee-held shares. The company also notes its current share count, including treasury shares, and reminds investors of their statutory right to question the board and CEO at the meeting, highlighting transparency and engagement ahead of discussions on the board’s and CEO’s presentations and other standard AGM matters.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Sets 2030 Strategy With Focus on Deleveraging, AI-Driven Efficiency and Margin Targets

Intrum has unveiled its “Intrum 2030” strategy and new financial targets for 2026–2030, prioritising short‑term deleveraging and derisking alongside long‑term efficiency gains in its Servicing business and a stronger role as an investing partner. The group aims to leverage technology, data and AI to lower costs, boost collection performance and gain market share, while using its underwriting and pricing capabilities to attract capital partners and gradually increase balance-sheet investments as funding costs ease. By 2030, Intrum is targeting a leverage ratio of around 3x net debt to Servicing EBITDA, a total cost base of SEK 10–11 billion and a Servicing EBIT margin of 30–35 percent, with management arguing that this combination of cost reduction, balance-sheet strengthening and growth in Servicing should support improved operating profit and lower funding costs for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Absorbs Major Goodwill Hit but Underlying Business and Deleveraging Remain on Track

Intrum reported a mixed fourth quarter of 2025, with income declining 7% year-on-year to SEK 4.5 billion and unadjusted EBIT swinging to a loss of SEK 1.34 billion, driven primarily by a SEK 2.94 billion goodwill impairment booked in its annual review. Despite the headline loss, the underlying operations remained solid: adjusted EBIT slipped only 4% to SEK 1.63 billion and adjusted net income turned strongly positive, lifting adjusted earnings per share to SEK 5.27 for the quarter and SEK 18 for the full year, while cash EBITDA from continuing operations reached SEK 2.4 billion in Q4. The group continued to grow its External Servicing business organically at high margins and invested SEK 436 million in debt portfolios at a robust blended IRR of 18%, indicating disciplined capital deployment. Management maintained its strategic emphasis on deleveraging, with leverage reduced to 4.8x by year-end and further balance sheet improvement expected from the sale of its remaining stake in a joint venture with Brocc announced in January 2026, signaling ongoing efforts to strengthen the company’s financial resilience and position in the credit management market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Sells JV Portfolios Above Book Value to Accelerate Deleveraging

Intrum has agreed to sell its remaining 35% stake in portfolios held in a joint venture with Brocc Finance AB, an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management, for approximately EUR 215 million, a price above book value that is expected to generate a realised gain of about EUR 45 million. The transaction, which keeps Intrum as servicer under an unchanged five‑year servicing agreement and leaves its strategic co‑investment arrangement with Cerberus in place, is part of the group’s capital‑light strategy and deleveraging drive, with all proceeds earmarked for debt reduction, including managing its second‑lien Exchange Notes maturing in 2027; subject to regulatory and creditor approvals, closing is anticipated in the first half of 2026 and is expected to cut net debt and improve the leverage ratio by roughly 0.2x based on Q3 2025 figures, ahead of the company’s forthcoming strategic review update and new financial targets later in January.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Books SEK 3.4bn Impairment After Reassessing Goodwill and Tax Assets

Intrum AB will record a non-cash impairment charge of about SEK 3.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely driven by a SEK 3.1 billion goodwill write-down tied mainly to its Spanish real estate operations, with additional goodwill impairments in France and Germany reflecting more conservative assumptions. A further SEK 0.3 billion relates to impaired tax assets in Spain, with the overall review aligning cash flow forecasts, growth expectations and discount rates more cautiously with current market conditions and Intrum’s risk profile; the charge, booked as an item affecting comparability, reduces total goodwill to roughly SEK 30 billion and signals a recalibration of balance-sheet valuations that could influence investor perception of the group’s European portfolio, particularly in Spain.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.