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Intrum Justitia AB (SE:INTRUM)
:INTRUM

Intrum Justitia AB (INTRUM) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:INTRUM

Intrum Justitia AB

(INTRUM)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
kr38.00
▼(-1.83% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance driven by recurring losses and high leverage (declining equity and elevated debt-to-equity), partly offset by consistently positive free cash flow. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive (positive MACD and price above medium-term averages), while valuation offers limited support due to negative earnings (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Diversified business model
Having both outsourced collections (fee-for-service) and portfolio-investment businesses provides durable revenue mix. Fee revenues offer recurring cash flow and client stickiness, while portfolio activity can deliver higher, risk-adjusted returns over time, allowing the firm to shift emphasis by cycle.
Consistent cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow is a structural strength. It funds operations, services debt, and supports portfolio purchases without relying solely on equity markets. Consistent cash conversion also provides a buffer versus recurring accounting losses and enhances strategic optionality.
Pan‑European scale and multi‑segment reach
A broad geographic footprint and service coverage (early to legal collections, B2B and B2C) create durable competitive advantages: diversified client base, cross‑sell opportunities, and stronger sourcing for portfolio buys. Scale supports efficiency and data-driven collection performance.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A heavily levered capital structure materially raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks. High debt limits strategic flexibility (portfolio purchases, investment in operations) and magnifies downside in economic stress, making stable cash flow essential to avoid distress.
Recurring net losses
Persistent losses erode equity and retained earnings, constraining reinvestment and reducing return on invested capital. Over time, recurring deficits force reliance on cash or external financing, complicating sustainable profitability despite positive operating cash flow.
Revenue softness and earnings volatility
Flat-to-declining top line and volatile earnings reduce predictability of future cash flows and returns from portfolio investments. Weak revenue momentum limits economies of scale and makes margin recovery reliant on structural improvements rather than cyclical rebounds.

Intrum Justitia AB (INTRUM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Intrum Justitia AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIntrum AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides credit management and financial services in Europe and internationally. The company offers credit optimization services, including credit monitoring, credit decision, factoring, and credit information services; and debt collection comprising surveillance and purchase services. It also provides payment services, such as reminder, payment guarantee, and VAT services; e-commerce services comprising credit management, payment solutions, and collection services; accounts receivables services that include invoicing, payment booking, monitoring of due dates, reminder, and collection services; and financing and portfolio investment services. Intrum AB (publ) was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntrum generates revenue primarily through its debt collection services, where it earns fees for recovering outstanding debts on behalf of clients. The company also makes money from credit management services, which include risk assessment and consulting for businesses looking to mitigate credit risk. Additionally, Intrum engages in purchasing non-performing loans (NPLs) at a discount, which allows them to collect on these debts directly for profit. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and businesses enhance their service offerings and client base, further contributing to their revenue streams.

Intrum Justitia AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cash flow is a clear support (positive operating and free cash flow across years, improving in 2025), but overall quality is weighed down by recurring net losses (negative in 2022–2025) and a highly leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity worsening to ~4.1x with declining equity), increasing refinancing and downside risk.
Income Statement
34
Negative
Revenue has been broadly stable over 2020–2025, with a sharp rebound in reported 2025 growth after a weak 2024. Profitability, however, is inconsistent: net results have been negative in four of the last five annual periods (2022–2025), despite generally solid gross profit levels. Operating performance improved from the severe 2022 trough, but earnings volatility and recurring losses remain the key drag on quality.
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
The balance sheet is heavily levered, with debt-to-equity consistently elevated and worsening again in 2025 (roughly 4.1x). Equity has also trended down meaningfully from 2021 to 2025, which reduces financial flexibility. Returns on equity are negative in most years (2022–2025), underscoring that the current capital structure is not translating into shareholder profitability and leaves the company more exposed to refinancing and downturn risk.
Cash Flow
63
Positive
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across all years shown, including during loss-making periods, and free cash flow improved in 2025 after a weaker 2024. That said, cash flow coverage of debt is only moderate and was particularly weak in 2024, pointing to ongoing balance-sheet pressure despite healthy cash conversion.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue17.05B18.03B17.70B19.13B17.79B
Gross Profit11.98B7.96B8.30B10.12B8.23B
EBITDA5.46B4.70B4.43B2.48B7.93B
Net Income-1.43B-3.70B-187.00M-4.47B3.13B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets65.47B77.54B90.21B88.71B88.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.57B2.39B3.62B3.43B4.55B
Total Debt44.42B51.41B60.48B57.23B53.31B
Total Liabilities52.69B62.07B71.28B67.51B64.22B
Stockholders Equity10.85B13.39B16.75B18.54B21.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.54B3.83B4.96B4.63B9.71B
Operating Cash Flow4.57B4.42B5.11B4.99B10.04B
Investing Cash Flow-1.56B9.20B-2.56B-1.63B-8.01B
Financing Cash Flow-2.46B-15.29B-2.26B-4.88B401.00M

Intrum Justitia AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price38.71
Price Trends
50DMA
43.37
Negative
100DMA
43.39
Negative
200DMA
47.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.61
Positive
RSI
34.21
Neutral
STOCH
5.74
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:INTRUM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.49, below the 50-day MA of 43.37, and below the 200-day MA of 47.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:INTRUM.

Intrum Justitia AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
kr9.91B8.2626.88%15.59%24.31%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
62
Neutral
kr12.11B11.9415.75%1.78%19.81%5.77%
54
Neutral
kr10.99B8.050.78%13.82%
48
Neutral
kr5.18B-3.69-0.68%-6.65%95.09%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:INTRUM
Intrum Justitia AB
38.71
9.09
30.69%
SE:HOFI
Hoist Finance AB
143.90
70.04
94.82%
SE:NORION
Collector AB
58.60
17.60
42.93%
SE:TFBANK
TF Bank AB
157.76
34.47
27.96%
SE:LEA
Lea Bank AB
14.55
4.65
46.97%

Intrum Justitia AB Corporate Events

Intrum Sets 2030 Strategy With Focus on Deleveraging, AI-Driven Efficiency and Margin Targets
Jan 29, 2026

Intrum has unveiled its “Intrum 2030” strategy and new financial targets for 2026–2030, prioritising short‑term deleveraging and derisking alongside long‑term efficiency gains in its Servicing business and a stronger role as an investing partner. The group aims to leverage technology, data and AI to lower costs, boost collection performance and gain market share, while using its underwriting and pricing capabilities to attract capital partners and gradually increase balance-sheet investments as funding costs ease. By 2030, Intrum is targeting a leverage ratio of around 3x net debt to Servicing EBITDA, a total cost base of SEK 10–11 billion and a Servicing EBIT margin of 30–35 percent, with management arguing that this combination of cost reduction, balance-sheet strengthening and growth in Servicing should support improved operating profit and lower funding costs for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Absorbs Major Goodwill Hit but Underlying Business and Deleveraging Remain on Track
Jan 29, 2026

Intrum reported a mixed fourth quarter of 2025, with income declining 7% year-on-year to SEK 4.5 billion and unadjusted EBIT swinging to a loss of SEK 1.34 billion, driven primarily by a SEK 2.94 billion goodwill impairment booked in its annual review. Despite the headline loss, the underlying operations remained solid: adjusted EBIT slipped only 4% to SEK 1.63 billion and adjusted net income turned strongly positive, lifting adjusted earnings per share to SEK 5.27 for the quarter and SEK 18 for the full year, while cash EBITDA from continuing operations reached SEK 2.4 billion in Q4. The group continued to grow its External Servicing business organically at high margins and invested SEK 436 million in debt portfolios at a robust blended IRR of 18%, indicating disciplined capital deployment. Management maintained its strategic emphasis on deleveraging, with leverage reduced to 4.8x by year-end and further balance sheet improvement expected from the sale of its remaining stake in a joint venture with Brocc announced in January 2026, signaling ongoing efforts to strengthen the company’s financial resilience and position in the credit management market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Sells JV Portfolios Above Book Value to Accelerate Deleveraging
Jan 12, 2026

Intrum has agreed to sell its remaining 35% stake in portfolios held in a joint venture with Brocc Finance AB, an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management, for approximately EUR 215 million, a price above book value that is expected to generate a realised gain of about EUR 45 million. The transaction, which keeps Intrum as servicer under an unchanged five‑year servicing agreement and leaves its strategic co‑investment arrangement with Cerberus in place, is part of the group’s capital‑light strategy and deleveraging drive, with all proceeds earmarked for debt reduction, including managing its second‑lien Exchange Notes maturing in 2027; subject to regulatory and creditor approvals, closing is anticipated in the first half of 2026 and is expected to cut net debt and improve the leverage ratio by roughly 0.2x based on Q3 2025 figures, ahead of the company’s forthcoming strategic review update and new financial targets later in January.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Books SEK 3.4bn Impairment After Reassessing Goodwill and Tax Assets
Dec 22, 2025

Intrum AB will record a non-cash impairment charge of about SEK 3.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, largely driven by a SEK 3.1 billion goodwill write-down tied mainly to its Spanish real estate operations, with additional goodwill impairments in France and Germany reflecting more conservative assumptions. A further SEK 0.3 billion relates to impaired tax assets in Spain, with the overall review aligning cash flow forecasts, growth expectations and discount rates more cautiously with current market conditions and Intrum’s risk profile; the charge, booked as an item affecting comparability, reduces total goodwill to roughly SEK 30 billion and signals a recalibration of balance-sheet valuations that could influence investor perception of the group’s European portfolio, particularly in Spain.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Sets January Date to Unveil 2025 Results and Strategic Review
Dec 18, 2025

Intrum will publish its full-year 2025 results and present key outcomes from its ongoing strategic review on 29 January 2026, with a webcast and teleconference for investors, analysts and financial media scheduled that afternoon. The event, led by CEO Johan Åkerblom and CFO Masih Yazdi, will outline new financial targets and strategic priorities, signalling potential shifts in the company’s future direction that are likely to be closely watched by creditors, shareholders and clients across the European credit management sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Intrum Completes Debt Buyback to Strengthen Financial Position
Dec 3, 2025

Intrum Justitia AB has announced the results of its tender offers for senior secured exchange notes issued by its subsidiary, Intrum Investments and Financing AB. The company accepted €119,605,385 in aggregate principal amount of the notes, with a purchase consideration of €112,500,000. This transaction is part of Intrum’s strategy to improve its debt profile by repurchasing debt at a discount, thereby strengthening its financial position and balance sheet. The completion of this debt buyback program marks a significant step in Intrum’s recapitalization efforts, with all proceeds from the New Money Notes now fully utilized.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:INTRUM) stock is a Hold with a SEK37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intrum Justitia AB stock, see the SE:INTRUM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026