Bufab AB (BUFAB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr22.40B
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 162.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: -1.37%
• EPS Growth: 14.78%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 1,755
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 190,552,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 224,728
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 162,764
• PEG Ratio: 2.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: kr130.00 ▲(27.55% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by above-average financial performance with improving profitability and solid free-cash-flow conversion, plus strong technical uptrend signals. These positives are tempered by a premium valuation (high P/E with low yield) and some cyclicality risk from uneven revenue and historically volatile cash flows.

Positive Factors

Improving margins and profitability

Margin expansion across gross, EBIT and net levels indicates the company is extracting better pricing or operational efficiency from its distribution model. Sustained higher margins increase resilience to top-line softness and provide durable internal funding for reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Strong free cash flow conversion

Very high free cash flow conversion means reported earnings reliably translate into cash available for capex, working capital and debt reduction. Over a multi-month horizon this strengthens financial flexibility and reduces reliance on external financing for routine investments.

Diversified industrial customer base and long-term contracts

A broad end-market footprint and long-term contracts create demand visibility and customer stickiness. Combined with value-added logistics and inventory services, this business model promotes recurring revenue and higher switching costs, supporting steadier cash flows and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Uneven and flat revenue trajectory

Stagnant top-line growth despite margin gains limits the company’s ability to scale profits sustainably. Reliance on margin improvement alone raises execution risk: without consistent revenue growth, long-term earnings durability and reinvestment capacity are constrained, especially during industry slowdowns.

Meaningful leverage on the balance sheet

A near 0.9 debt-to-equity ratio reduces financial flexibility and increases interest exposure. In a cyclical industrial distribution environment, this leverage can force prioritization of debt service over growth investments or dividends if revenues weaken, raising downside risk over the medium term.

Volatile operating cash flow

Historic volatility in operating cash flow and the recent decline undermine predictability of free cash flow despite strong conversion in 2025. Irregular cash generation complicates planning for capex, working capital and deleveraging, making the firm more sensitive to demand swings over several months.

Bufab AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bufab AB (publ) operates as a trading company that provides solutions for sourcing, quality control, and logistics for C-parts in Sweden and internationally. It offers metal or plastic fasteners comprising screws, bolts, nuts, rivets, pins, washers, etc.; and other small metal, rubber, and plastic parts, including cables, springs, and electronic fasteners. The company also provides stainless steel bolts under the BUMAX brand name; and special products, such as access hardware, cold formed parts, die cast parts, electrical products, machined parts, magnets, plastic parts, rubber parts, stamping and pressing parts, tools and equipment, and turned parts. In addition, it offers assembled parts, add on products, and special packaging and kitting solutions. Further, the company provides supply chain services. It serves customers in a range of manufacturing industries, including the technology, electronics/telecommunications, consumer goods, transportation and construction, furniture, and automotive sectors, as well as the offshore and refining industry. The company was formerly known as Bufab Holding AB (publ) and changed its name to Bufab AB (publ) in June 2015. Bufab AB (publ) was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Värnamo, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Bufab generates revenue primarily through the sale of fasteners and related products to a diverse clientele across multiple sectors. The company's revenue model is built on direct sales to customers, as well as through strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers. Key revenue streams include the sale of standard fasteners, customized solutions, and value-added services such as inventory management and logistics support. Additionally, Bufab benefits from long-term contracts with major industrial players, which provide stable income and foster ongoing business relationships. The company's focus on quality, efficiency, and customer service further enhances its competitive advantage, driving repeat business and customer loyalty.

Bufab AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Margins and profitability improved (gross ~32%, EBIT ~12.4%, net margin ~7.8%) and net income rose, supported by strong free-cash-flow conversion (~92% of net income). Offsetting this, revenue has been uneven/flat and cash flows have shown historical volatility, with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.90) remaining a watch item.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for an industrial distributor, with 2025 gross margin improving to ~32% (vs ~30% in 2024) and operating profitability also stepping up (EBIT margin ~12.4% vs ~11.3%). Net margin improved to ~7.8% from ~6.9%, and net income rose to 626m from 551m. The key weakness is the top-line trajectory: revenue was essentially flat in 2025 after a decline in 2024 from 2023, indicating growth is not consistent despite better margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful but not excessive: 2025 debt-to-equity is ~0.90 (roughly stable vs 2024), which is reasonable but leaves less flexibility than a low-debt peer. Returns are healthy with return on equity at ~15.5% in 2025 (up vs ~14.1% in 2024), though below the higher levels seen earlier in the period. Overall, the balance sheet looks workable, but debt remains a watch item if demand weakens.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is strong relative to earnings in 2025 (free cash flow is ~92% of net income) and remains firmly positive. However, operating cash flow declined to 925m from 1,101m in 2024, and cash flow has shown volatility historically (including negative operating and free cash flow in 2022). Free cash flow growth is also inconsistent year-to-year, which lowers confidence in durability through a cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.07B	8.04B	8.68B	8.43B	5.88B
Gross Profit	2.58B	2.39B	2.49B	2.39B	1.64B
EBITDA	1.30B	1.18B	1.26B	1.19B	848.00M
Net Income	626.00M	551.00M	574.00M	609.00M	470.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.32B	9.19B	8.60B	9.44B	6.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	205.00M	211.00M	218.00M	322.00M	293.00M
Total Debt	3.64B	3.53B	3.58B	4.05B	2.25B
Total Liabilities	5.29B	5.29B	5.18B	6.40B	4.20B
Stockholders Equity	4.03B	3.90B	3.42B	3.04B	2.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	849.00M	1.02B	1.36B	-113.00M	138.00M
Operating Cash Flow	925.00M	1.10B	1.45B	-47.00M	172.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-809.00M	-494.00M	-734.00M	-1.08B	-335.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-93.00M	-623.00M	-813.00M	1.15B	158.00M

Bufab AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 101.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BUFAB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 101.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.36, below the 50-day MA of 105.14, and above the 200-day MA of 96.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:BUFAB.

Bufab AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OEM.B	69 Neutral	kr17.66B	29.73	25.27%	1.22%	3.19%	4.60%
BUFAB	68 Neutral	kr22.40B	35.02	15.33%	1.03%	-1.37%	14.78%
AQ	65 Neutral	kr16.79B	24.59	15.15%	0.83%	2.60%	3.05%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALIG	61 Neutral	kr13.37B	21.80	9.59%	2.09%	-1.74%	26.36%
ALLIGO.B	60 Neutral	kr6.69B	25.75	6.80%	1.64%	―	―
BERG.B	45 Neutral	kr7.21B	-106.98	-3.67%	1.25%	4.65%	-136.09%

Bufab AB Corporate Events

Bufab Launches Share Buyback to Hedge Long-Term Incentive Program

Bufab AB’s board has resolved to initiate a share buyback program on Nasdaq Stockholm under an authorization granted by its 2025 annual general meeting, with the primary aim of securing future share deliveries under the company’s long-term performance-based share savings program and covering associated cash flow obligations such as social security contributions. The program, to be executed independently by Svenska Handelsbanken between 6 February and 23 March 2026, allows repurchases of up to 134,425 shares in cash, which would increase Bufab’s treasury shareholding to 900,000 shares, or about 0.47% of its total share capital, signaling continued use of equity-based incentives while having only a limited impact on the overall share structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BUFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bufab AB stock, see the SE:BUFAB Stock Forecast page.

Bufab Lifts Margins and Earnings in 2025 as Acquisition and Dividend Signal Confidence

Bufab reported a solid close to 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales up 3.7% to SEK 1.93 billion, driven mainly by margin improvements rather than volume growth, as organic growth was modest at 0.3%. Adjusted EBITA for the quarter rose to SEK 252 million, lifting the margin to 13.1% from 10.8%, while cash flow from operations strengthened significantly, helping reduce adjusted net debt to EBITDA to 2.6. For the full year, net sales edged up 0.5% to SEK 8.07 billion, but profitability improved more clearly, with adjusted EBITA up to SEK 1.07 billion and the margin increasing to 13.3%, alongside earnings per share rising to SEK 3.30. The company also completed a 5:1 share split and the board proposed a higher dividend of SEK 1.30 per share, underlining confidence in cash generation. Strategic expansion continued with the acquisition of novia Group, adding about EUR 50 million in annual sales and strengthening Bufab’s position in its niche industrial components market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BUFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bufab AB stock, see the SE:BUFAB Stock Forecast page.

Bufab Sets Date for 2025 Year-End Report and Investor Call

Bufab has announced that it will publish its year-end report for 2025 on 5 February at 07:30 CET, with the report and an accompanying presentation made available on the company’s website. CEO Erik Lundén and acting CFO Helena Häger will hold an English-language conference call at 10:00 CET the same day to present the financial results and take questions from analysts, underscoring the company’s ongoing investor outreach and transparency ahead of what may be a closely watched update on its performance and outlook in the global C-parts supply chain market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BUFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bufab AB stock, see the SE:BUFAB Stock Forecast page.