Bonava AB Class B (BONAV.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr3.04B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 331.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -24.13%
• EPS Growth: -70.19%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 890
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 293,367,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 382,127
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 331,656
• PEG Ratio: 0.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr10.34B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: kr9.50 ▼(-13.48% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—ongoing net losses and uneven/free-cash-flow performance—despite improving margins and a healthier leverage profile. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages and a positive MACD, but valuation remains pressured by negative earnings (negative P/E).

Positive Factors

Improving Operating Margins

Margin improvements to 12.8% gross and 7.1% EBIT in 2025 indicate stronger pricing and cost control. If sustained, this structural margin recovery supports durable operating profitability, reduces cycle sensitivity and provides a pathway to convert project-level gains into lasting earnings power.

Healthier Capital Structure

Debt-to-equity reduction to ~0.52 from prior peaks materially lowers refinancing and covenant risk. A sizable equity base relative to debt strengthens the balance sheet, enabling the company to fund projects, withstand housing cycles and pursue opportunistic land acquisitions with less financial strain.

Presales-driven Business Model

A development model built on presales structurally reduces market and execution risk by locking in demand and facilitating project financing. This model improves cash visibility, lowers speculative inventory exposure and supports more predictable project funding over multiple cycles.

Negative Factors

Persistent Net Losses

Despite improving operating margins, a -1.2% net margin in 2025 shows non-operating costs or other items still prevent profitability. Continued net losses weaken retained earnings, constrain reinvestment capacity and delay sustainable shareholder value creation absent further improvement.

Volatile Cash Generation

Wide swings in operating cash flow and near-zero free cash flow in 2025 reflect working-capital and cycle sensitivity. For a residential developer, inconsistent cash conversion raises funding risk for projects, limits the ability to deleverage, and hampers reliable capital returns or investment programs.

Material Revenue Contraction

A drop in revenue scale since 2020 erodes operating leverage and supplier negotiating power. Even with a 2025 rebound, reduced scale increases per-unit overhead, making sustained margin expansion harder and requiring continued volume recovery to lock in structural profitability gains.

Bonava AB Class B Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bonava AB (publ) develops and sells residential units in Sweden, Germany, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. It offers multi-family and single-family houses; and develops homes for consumers and investors, such as pension funds, alongside municipalities, and other stakeholders. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 35,300 building rights. Bonava AB (publ) is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Bonava primarily makes money by developing residential projects and selling completed (or presold) homes. Its core revenue stream is recognized from the sale of housing units in its development portfolio, where earnings are driven by the number of units sold/delivered and the margin between total project costs (land, design, construction, financing, and overhead) and the sales price. A key driver of cash flow and risk management is presales: Bonava typically markets and sells units before or during construction, which can secure demand and support project financing. The company’s profitability is influenced by its land portfolio (ability to acquire land at attractive prices and obtain zoning/permits), execution in construction and project management (cost control, timelines, quality), and residential market conditions (home prices, interest rates, consumer confidence). Bonava may also generate ancillary income related to project development activities (e.g., sales to institutional buyers in certain projects), but specific material partnership arrangements or additional revenue lines are null.

Bonava AB Class B Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is recovering (2025 gross margin 12.8% and EBIT margin 7.1%), and leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~0.52). However, the company remains loss-making at the net level (2025 net margin -1.2%) and cash flow consistency is weak, with free cash flow dropping to roughly breakeven in 2025 after volatility in 2022–2023.

Income Statement

Revenue has trended down materially since 2020 (16.997B in 2020 to 7.725B in 2025), despite a rebound in 2025 (+143% vs. 2024). Profitability is mixed: gross margin improved in 2025 (12.8% vs. 8.3% in 2024) and operating profit strengthened (EBIT margin 7.1% vs. 0.9% in 2024), but net results remain loss-making (net margin -1.2% in 2025), following a very weak 2023–2024 period with large losses. Overall, operating performance shows recovery, but the lack of sustained net profitability keeps the score constrained.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved versus the peak risk period: debt-to-equity fell to ~0.52 in 2025 from ~0.88–0.89 in 2022–2023, indicating a healthier capital structure. Equity remains sizable (6.945B in 2025) relative to debt (3.639B), which supports balance-sheet resilience. The main weakness is ongoing negative returns for shareholders (return on equity is negative in 2022–2025, including -1.3% in 2025), signaling that the balance sheet has not yet translated into consistent earnings power.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been volatile. Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024–2025 (566M and 390M), but it was deeply negative in 2022 (-3.242B) and also negative in 2023 (-337M), highlighting working-capital/cycle risk typical for residential construction. Free cash flow deteriorated sharply in 2025 to roughly breakeven (0 vs. 566M in 2024), and cash conversion versus profits remains weak in magnitude (operating cash flow is a small fraction of EBITDA/operating profit in 2024–2025). The trend is improving from the trough, but consistency is not yet proven.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.72B	8.19B	13.27B	13.99B	14.75B
Gross Profit	987.00M	680.00M	1.42B	1.69B	1.93B
EBITDA	547.00M	179.00M	-468.00M	970.00M	1.21B
Net Income	-89.00M	-518.00M	-1.34B	-303.00M	808.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.65B	17.25B	19.10B	25.58B	23.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	220.00M	593.00M	180.00M	119.00M	1.07B
Total Debt	3.64B	4.31B	5.82B	7.13B	4.47B
Total Liabilities	8.70B	10.06B	12.50B	17.59B	15.39B
Stockholders Equity	6.95B	7.18B	6.60B	7.98B	8.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	566.00M	-546.00M	-3.35B	619.00M
Operating Cash Flow	390.00M	566.00M	-337.00M	-3.24B	719.00M
Investing Cash Flow	27.00M	56.00M	1.05B	-104.00M	-88.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-781.00M	-237.00M	-833.00M	2.49B	-987.00M

Bonava AB Class B Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.98
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BONAV.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.57, below the 50-day MA of 11.63, and below the 200-day MA of 11.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.66 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:BONAV.B.

Bonava AB Class B Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BRIN.B	51 Neutral	kr3.05B	-38.63	1.13%	―	51.80%	―
BONAV.B	49 Neutral	kr3.04B	-39.89	-2.36%	―	-24.13%	-70.19%
CORE.D	49 Neutral	kr6.32B	-1.69	―	8.13%	-6.30%	52.27%
CORE.A	45 Neutral	kr6.32B	-1.69	-8.81%	2.28%	-6.30%	52.27%
SBB.B	44 Neutral	kr6.70B	-4.58	-11.80%	―	-11.38%	―
JM	43 Neutral	kr7.35B	160.46	0.69%	2.38%	-13.68%	-17.89%