Axfood AB (AXFO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr69.14B
• Dividend Yield: 3.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 218.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.08
• Revenue Growth: 6.28%
• EPS Growth: -10.08%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 2.59
• Shares Outstanding: 216,843,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 196,345
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 218,034
• PEG Ratio: 4.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr340.00
• Price Target Upside: 17.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.41
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr93.72B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: kr361.00 ▲(25.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is driven mainly by solid operating performance and cash generation, but tempered by materially higher leverage and some margin/EBIT pressure. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), while valuation is a modest headwind due to a higher P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent and improving cash generation (operating cash flow ~6.8B, FCF ~5.4B in 2025) supports investment, dividends and debt servicing capacity. Strong FCF coverage of earnings (~56–80%) indicates high quality of profits and durable internal funding for strategic moves.

Scale & steady revenue growth

Multi-year revenue expansion to ~89.2B reflects broad market penetration and retail scale. Scale supports sourcing leverage, private-label economics and logistics efficiency, creating structural cost advantages and resilience in a low-margin grocery industry over the medium term.

Diversified retail & wholesale model

A multi-channel model combining retail banners, wholesale distribution and logistics creates diversified revenue streams and higher utilisation of supply chain assets. Ownership of logistics and private-label capabilities strengthens margins and competitive positioning versus pure-play retailers.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Material increase in leverage (debt/equity ~3.45x) elevates financial risk and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher fixed obligations limit ability to absorb shocks, constrain strategic optionality and make the company more sensitive to margin volatility or cost inflation over the medium term.

Margin pressure

Erosion of EBIT and net margins despite revenue scale indicates margin compression from competitive pricing or cost pressures. Persistent margin weakness in a structurally low-margin grocery sector can materially reduce free cash flow potential and weaken returns on incremental investment.

Debt coverage strain

While cash generation is solid, operating cash flow covers under half of total debt, leaving limited headroom if sales or margins deteriorate. This coverage gap raises refinancing and liquidity risk and makes the firm more dependent on maintaining stable operations to meet obligations.

Axfood AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses in Sweden. It operates through Willys, Hemköp, Dagab, and Axfood Snabbgross segments. The company operates its retail business through Willys, Hemköp, and Eurocash chains; and the online store, Mat.se. It is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. In addition, it offers home delivery of meal kits under the Middagsfrid name, as well as operates Urban Deli, a combined restaurant and market hall concept; and Apohem, an online pharmacy solution. The company serves restaurants, foodservice operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, service stations, and other convenience retailers. It operates 65 Hemköp, 219 Willys, and 26 Snabbgross group-owned stores; and 133 Hemköp and 126 Tempo franchises. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) is a subsidiary of Axel Johnson AB.

How the Company Makes Money

Axfood generates revenue primarily through the sale of grocery products in its retail chains, which include both physical stores and online platforms. The company earns money from direct sales of food and non-food items, leveraging a mix of branded and private label products to attract a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include retail sales, wholesale distribution to other retailers, and services such as logistics and supply chain management. Significant partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers enable Axfood to negotiate better pricing and maintain a competitive edge. Additionally, the company's emphasis on cost efficiency and sustainability initiatives supports its profitability by reducing operational costs and enhancing brand loyalty among environmentally conscious consumers.

Axfood AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement and cash flow are solid (steady multi-year revenue growth, consistent free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a clear weak spot: leverage increased materially by 2025 (debt/equity ~3.45x) and margins/EBIT have shown pressure versus earlier years.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the period (from ~53.7B in 2020 to ~89.2B in 2025), but the growth rate has cooled recently (2025 shows ~1.1%). Profitability is stable but modest, which is typical for grocery: gross margin sits around ~14–16% and net margin around ~2.6–3.7%. A key watch-out is margin pressure over time—net margin and EBIT margin are lower in 2024–2025 versus 2020–2021, and 2025 EBIT fell versus 2024 despite higher revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased materially. Total debt rose sharply by 2025 (to ~25.9B), and debt relative to equity moved from ~1.3–1.6x (2020–2022) to ~3.45x in 2025, indicating a more aggressive capital structure. Offsetting this, profitability on equity remains strong (roughly ~31–44% across the years), but the higher leverage elevates financial risk and reduces balance-sheet flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow increased to ~6.8B in 2025 and free cash flow rose to ~5.4B, with strong free-cash-flow growth in 2025 (+13%). Free cash flow consistently covers a large portion of earnings (roughly ~56–80% across the period), supporting quality of profits. The main weakness is that operating cash flow covers less than half of debt in these years (~0.38–0.59x), which is workable with stable operations but becomes more important given the recent rise in leverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	89.15B	84.06B	81.11B	73.47B	57.89B
Gross Profit	13.13B	12.23B	11.33B	10.08B	8.95B
EBITDA	7.74B	6.68B	6.41B	5.78B	5.10B
Net Income	2.34B	2.19B	2.36B	2.36B	2.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	36.91B	35.43B	30.02B	28.62B	23.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.08B	735.00M	688.00M	559.00M	734.00M
Total Debt	25.88B	15.30B	9.76B	9.25B	8.00B
Total Liabilities	29.08B	28.04B	22.83B	21.72B	18.55B
Stockholders Equity	7.51B	7.05B	6.88B	6.61B	4.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.37B	3.92B	3.86B	3.33B	2.77B
Operating Cash Flow	6.75B	5.46B	5.81B	5.93B	4.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.77B	-3.18B	-2.21B	-2.78B	-3.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.64B	-2.23B	-3.47B	-3.32B	-1.55B

Axfood AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 288.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AXFO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 288.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 329.17, below the 50-day MA of 310.13, and above the 200-day MA of 288.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:AXFO.

Axfood AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLA.B	70 Outperform	kr15.17B	14.56	12.72%	2.74%	0.81%	57.02%
AXFO	65 Neutral	kr69.14B	27.92	31.10%	3.05%	6.28%	-10.08%
DUNI	62 Neutral	kr4.49B	15.85	9.65%	4.83%	3.79%	39.15%
MSON.B	58 Neutral	kr1.62B	9.34	-0.17%	2.34%	-2.95%	-112.90%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
SCST	55 Neutral	kr8.31B	17.69	―	2.56%	7.37%	2.90%
HUMBLE	50 Neutral	kr3.16B	58.18	0.87%	―	5.99%	-38.16%

Axfood AB Corporate Events

Axfood convenes 2026 AGM with votes on incentives, board and buybacks

Axfood has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 18 March in Stockholm, inviting shareholders to participate in person, by proxy or via postal voting subject to registration and shareholding verification deadlines. The company outlines detailed procedures for voting, representation and documentation, underscoring its aim to facilitate broad shareholder participation.

The proposed agenda covers standard AGM items such as approval of the annual and sustainability reports, dividend decisions, discharge of liability for the board and CEO, and approval of the remuneration report. Shareholders will also vote on board and auditor elections, revised instructions for the nominating committee, and a long-term share-based incentive programme including authorisation for buybacks and transfers of treasury shares, measures that could affect governance, executive incentives and capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Buy with a SEK339.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood Extends Market-Share Lead With Strong 2025 and Boosts Investments for 2026

Axfood closed 2025 with retail sales growth well above the Swedish grocery market and delivered its eleventh consecutive year of market share gains, supported by strong performance across key chains Willys, Hemköp, City Gross and Snabbgross, tighter cost control and rising operating margins in the fourth quarter. The group is stepping up long-term investments, including SEK 2.2–2.3 billion of capex in 2026 for 10–15 new group-owned stores and a highly automated logistics centre in Kungsbacka, while completing a transition to fossil-free transport, applying for science-based climate targets and proposing a higher dividend, underscoring both its financial strength and strategic push to cement its position as a leading value-focused, sustainability-oriented food retailer in Sweden.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK341.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood Achieves Fossil-Free Truck Transport and Accelerates Fleet Electrification

Axfood has achieved fossil-free transport for all truck traffic between its warehouses and stores across Sweden, reaching this target several years ahead of its previous 2030 timetable by converting more than 200 group-owned trucks and at least as many contracted vehicles to renewable fuels and electricity. The company has implemented this transition through tighter supplier agreements, extensive collaboration with logistics partners, and increased use of biogas, HVO and electric trucks, while acknowledging that higher costs for renewable fuels highlight the need for clearer, long-term policy support to keep sustainable transport competitive. With roughly 15% of its truck fleet already electric and a goal to have at least half of its own trucks electrified by 2030, Axfood is positioning itself as a frontrunner in low-carbon logistics within the grocery sector, aiming to further cut emissions and embed electrification and charging infrastructure as a core component of its broader sustainability strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK341.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood Schedules 29 January Webcast for 2025 Year-End Report

Axfood has scheduled the presentation of its 2025 year-end report for 29 January, with the report release at 7:00 am CET and a webcast and teleconference at 9:30 am CET led by President and CEO Simone Margulies and CFO Anders Lexmon in English. The company is providing digital access to the event for investors, analysts and media, and will publish the presentation materials and a recording afterward on its website, underscoring its focus on transparent financial communication with the market and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK298.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood invests EUR 265 million in automated logistics hub to boost southern Sweden capacity

Axfood has signed a EUR 265 million agreement with German automation specialist Witron to supply automation equipment for a new, highly automated logistics centre in Kungsbacka, southern Sweden, scheduled to begin operations and ramp-up in 2030. The 90,000-square-metre, environmentally certified facility will handle goods in all temperature zones for Axfood’s food retail chains in southern Sweden, replace the existing Backa warehouse and take over volumes from Jönköping and Hässleholm, boosting regional capacity by at least 20% while aiming to maintain current cost levels at full operation and then gradually lower them. The investment, phased between 2026 and 2031, will be financed through operating cash flow and a new SEK 4 billion revolving credit facility arranged with Handelsbanken, SEB and Swedbank, with Axfood also implementing currency hedging for most future payment flows under the Witron contract, underscoring the strategic importance of the project for enhancing logistics efficiency and competitiveness across the group.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood Proposes Board Re-Election Ahead of 2026 AGM

Axfood’s Nominating Committee has proposed the re-election of several board members, including Caroline Berg as Chairman, ahead of the Annual General Meeting in March 2026. The committee’s proposals, aimed at ensuring continuity in leadership, will be detailed in the meeting notice, with implications for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.