Axfood AB (AXFO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr66.44B
• Dividend Yield: 3.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 218.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.05
• Revenue Growth: 6.28%
• EPS Growth: -10.08%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 3.29
• Shares Outstanding: 216,843,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 196,345
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 218,034
• PEG Ratio: -3.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr310.00
• Price Target Upside: 7.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: kr337.00 ▲(16.69% Upside)

Axfood AB's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation. However, the technical analysis indicates potential bearish trends, and the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow generation

Consistent and growing free cash flow demonstrates enduring cash generation capacity, enabling funding for store investment, logistics, dividends or debt reduction. Strong conversion of income to cash provides strategic flexibility and resilience across retail cycles over the next several months.

Stable gross margins

A stable gross margin near 14.7% signals durable cost control and procurement strength, likely driven by scale, private labels and supplier negotiating power. Sustained gross margins support long-term operating profitability even if net margins face pressure from SG&A or financing costs.

Strong market position and scale

Scale across supermarket chains and wholesale/logistics operations provides structural advantages: purchasing leverage, wide distribution, private-label growth and operational synergies. These durable competitive assets support margin resilience and market share in Swedish grocery retail.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk, limiting the company's ability to invest or respond to shocks. Over a multi-month horizon, higher debt levels can pressure cash flow allocation and constrain strategic initiatives.

Declining net profitability

A falling net margin to about 2.44% indicates increasing cost, pricing or financing pressure that erodes bottom-line returns. Persistent net margin weakness reduces retained earnings and the capacity to fund growth, dividends or debt reduction over the medium term.

Negative EPS growth

A double-digit negative EPS growth rate signals underlying earnings headwinds, potentially from margin compression or higher financial costs. Continued EPS declines over months can weaken reinvestment capacity and shareholder returns, constraining long-term value creation.

Axfood AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses in Sweden. It operates through Willys, Hemköp, Dagab, and Axfood Snabbgross segments. The company operates its retail business through Willys, Hemköp, and Eurocash chains; and the online store, Mat.se. It is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. In addition, it offers home delivery of meal kits under the Middagsfrid name, as well as operates Urban Deli, a combined restaurant and market hall concept; and Apohem, an online pharmacy solution. The company serves restaurants, foodservice operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, service stations, and other convenience retailers. It operates 65 Hemköp, 219 Willys, and 26 Snabbgross group-owned stores; and 133 Hemköp and 126 Tempo franchises. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) is a subsidiary of Axel Johnson AB.

How the Company Makes Money

Axfood generates revenue primarily through the sale of grocery products in its retail chains, which include both physical stores and online platforms. The company earns money from direct sales of food and non-food items, leveraging a mix of branded and private label products to attract a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include retail sales, wholesale distribution to other retailers, and services such as logistics and supply chain management. Significant partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers enable Axfood to negotiate better pricing and maintain a competitive edge. Additionally, the company's emphasis on cost efficiency and sustainability initiatives supports its profitability by reducing operational costs and enhancing brand loyalty among environmentally conscious consumers.

Axfood AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Axfood AB exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with stable margins and effective cost management. However, the increasing leverage and slight pressure on net profitability could be potential risks. The company maintains strong cash flow generation, supporting its financial health and operational needs.

Income Statement

Axfood AB shows a consistent revenue growth trajectory with a TTM growth rate of 1.6% and a strong historical growth pattern. The gross profit margin has remained stable around 14.7% in TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 2.44% in TTM, suggesting some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 2.48 in TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity remains strong at 33.06%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Axfood AB has demonstrated robust free cash flow growth of 8.56% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.40, showing a solid conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, reflecting efficient cash management despite the slight decline in net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	88.18B	84.06B	81.11B	73.47B	57.89B	53.70B
Gross Profit	13.09B	12.23B	11.33B	10.08B	8.95B	8.55B
EBITDA	7.39B	6.68B	6.41B	5.78B	5.10B	4.76B
Net Income	2.13B	2.19B	2.36B	2.36B	2.15B	1.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.78B	35.43B	30.02B	28.62B	23.73B	18.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	334.00M	735.00M	688.00M	559.00M	734.00M	-5.71B
Total Debt	15.67B	15.30B	9.76B	9.25B	8.00B	5.71B
Total Liabilities	28.47B	28.04B	22.83B	21.72B	18.55B	14.25B
Stockholders Equity	6.95B	7.05B	6.88B	6.61B	4.95B	4.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.75B	3.92B	3.86B	3.33B	2.77B	3.82B
Operating Cash Flow	6.38B	5.46B	5.81B	5.93B	4.59B	4.85B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.35B	-3.18B	-2.21B	-2.78B	-3.84B	-1.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.99B	-2.23B	-3.47B	-3.32B	-1.55B	-3.04B

Axfood AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 288.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AXFO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 288.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 288.38, above the 50-day MA of 276.06, and above the 200-day MA of 276.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.57 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:AXFO.

Axfood AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLA.B	73 Outperform	kr12.43B	17.14	12.72%	2.74%	0.81%	57.02%
DUNI	71 Outperform	kr4.87B	14.89	9.65%	4.83%	3.79%	39.15%
AXFO	69 Neutral	kr66.44B	31.20	31.10%	3.05%	6.28%	-10.08%
SCST	68 Neutral	kr6.50B	20.99	―	2.56%	7.37%	2.90%
HUMBLE	59 Neutral	kr3.60B	81.76	0.87%	―	5.99%	-38.16%
MSON.B	58 Neutral	kr1.25B	-313.45	-0.17%	2.34%	-2.95%	-112.90%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%

Axfood AB Corporate Events

Axfood Schedules 29 January Webcast for 2025 Year-End Report

Axfood has scheduled the presentation of its 2025 year-end report for 29 January, with the report release at 7:00 am CET and a webcast and teleconference at 9:30 am CET led by President and CEO Simone Margulies and CFO Anders Lexmon in English. The company is providing digital access to the event for investors, analysts and media, and will publish the presentation materials and a recording afterward on its website, underscoring its focus on transparent financial communication with the market and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK298.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood invests EUR 265 million in automated logistics hub to boost southern Sweden capacity

Axfood has signed a EUR 265 million agreement with German automation specialist Witron to supply automation equipment for a new, highly automated logistics centre in Kungsbacka, southern Sweden, scheduled to begin operations and ramp-up in 2030. The 90,000-square-metre, environmentally certified facility will handle goods in all temperature zones for Axfood’s food retail chains in southern Sweden, replace the existing Backa warehouse and take over volumes from Jönköping and Hässleholm, boosting regional capacity by at least 20% while aiming to maintain current cost levels at full operation and then gradually lower them. The investment, phased between 2026 and 2031, will be financed through operating cash flow and a new SEK 4 billion revolving credit facility arranged with Handelsbanken, SEB and Swedbank, with Axfood also implementing currency hedging for most future payment flows under the Witron contract, underscoring the strategic importance of the project for enhancing logistics efficiency and competitiveness across the group.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood Proposes Board Re-Election Ahead of 2026 AGM

Axfood’s Nominating Committee has proposed the re-election of several board members, including Caroline Berg as Chairman, ahead of the Annual General Meeting in March 2026. The committee’s proposals, aimed at ensuring continuity in leadership, will be detailed in the meeting notice, with implications for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.

Axfood AB Reports Strong Q3 Growth and Plans for New Logistics Center

Axfood AB reported a 6.6% increase in net sales to SEK 22,286 million for the third quarter of 2025, with retail sales rising by 19.5%. The company is planning to enhance its operational capacity with a new automated logistics center in southern Sweden, expected to be completed by 2030, which will likely improve efficiency and market reach.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AXFO) stock is a Hold with a SEK307.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axfood AB stock, see the SE:AXFO Stock Forecast page.